Market Says Penguins Favorite to Win Cup

Here are the odds from Bodog.ca

Pittsburgh Penguins
4.50

New York Rangers
6.50

Vancouver Canucks
6.50

St. Louis Blues
8.50

Boston Bruins
10.00

Detroit Red Wings
13.00

Nashville Predators
13.00

Philadelphia Flyers
15.00

Chicago Blackhawks
17.00

San Jose Sharks
19.00

Los Angeles Kings
21.00

New Jersey Devils
23.00

Washington Capitals
29.00

Florida Panthers
31.00

Ottawa Senators
36.00

Phoenix Coyotes
36.00

Betting lines are mostly driven by bets than any predictor. Nice to hear I suppose, but about as important as the no one loves the Pens thread. The Pens are a good team, one among several strong contenders, but just because people bet on them does not make them favorites.

Conspiracy. Market dynamic is a conspiracy.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_nhl_experts__88/ept_sports_nhl_experts-909714918-1297641581.jpg?ymtRgjEDxfUrAEGs

Betting lines are mostly driven by bets than any predictor. Nice to hear I suppose, but about as important as the no one loves the Pens thread. The Pens are a good team, one among several strong contenders, but just because people bet on them does not make them favorites.

A market says a lot more than say, a poll, because people have to put their money where their mouth is and because it's weighted proportionately. Also, while bookies basically respond to a market, if they think the market is being clearly irrational (e.g. a team with a huge fan base that really wants it in a home game) they often adjust. It's in their interest to get as close to the "real" odds as possible. And bet-takers didn't get the money to make all those big fancy buildings in vegas by being stupid.

Hate the Penguins, but I agree with the market. They are the favorites right now.

Note that Phoenix and Florida, whose seeds exceed their underlying numbers are positioned based on the second.

A market says a lot more than say, a poll, because people have to put their money where their mouth is and because it's weighted proportionately. Also, while bookies basically respond to a market, if they think the market is being clearly irrational (e.g. a team with a huge fan base that really wants it in a home game) they often adjust. It's in their interest to get as close to the "real" odds as possible. And bet-takers didn't get the money to make all those big fancy buildings in vegas by being stupid.

It's in their interest to get equal amounts of money bet on both sides. But yes, generally speaking, the odds are decent approximations of what you'd expect them to be.

Not sure why the Pens are the favorites... all of their top line centers are prone to injury as is their #1 Dman. Can't see all of them making it through and if they lose Letang again they could be in a lot of trouble.

If they can get out of the first round, I agree. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, I have a feeling they're going to lose.

Seems like $100 on Phoenix wouldn't be too terrible a gamble

If they can get out of the first round, I agree. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, I have a feeling they're going to lose.

They drew seemingly the worst 1st round opponents. I hope you're right

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

They have two... at best.

EDIT: Your post will be quoted about 50 times... to tell you are wrong. Just preparing you for that. :laugh:

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

Not sure if you know what generational talent means...

It's in their interest to get equal amounts of money bet on both sides. But yes, generally speaking, the odds are decent approximations of what you'd expect them to be.

this is exactly it, the odds have nothing to do with direct predictions, but everything to do with how much money is being bet by the public on either side

Why do people fail to understand the word "generational"?

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

Guess you never had the vocab word generational while in school

-I like the value in a bet on Philadelphia to win the cup.

Pittsburgh is very vulnerable.

All of their best players are injury prone..... Crosby, Malkin, Letang.

Plus, they're going to be playing a physical team in Philadelphia in the first round.

You just know Laviolette will be telling his team to hit those guys hard every chance they get.

5 generational talents that do once in a lifetime things every day...

These are the top prices available for each team:

5.50 - Penguins
6.50 - Canucks & Rangers
10.00 - Bruins
12.00 - Blues
14.00 - Red Wings
15.00 - Flyers
17.00 - Predators
18.00 - Blackhawks
26.00 - Sharks
29.00 - Devils & Kings
41.00 - Capitals
51.00 - Panthers & Senators
61.00 - Coyotes

1/5th the Penguins team is generational talent. Get with the program guys.

Why are people betting on the penguins, they didn't even go 79-3 in the regular season!?

Pens are always the faves to win if they are healthy.

For good reason.

Bad value though.

These are the top prices available for each team:

5.50 - Penguins
6.50 - Canucks & Rangers
10.00 - Bruins
12.00 - Blues
14.00 - Red Wings
15.00 - Flyers
17.00 - Predators
18.00 - Blackhawks
26.00 - Sharks
29.00 - Devils & Kings
41.00 - Capitals
51.00 - Panthers & Senators
61.00 - Coyotes

It's tempting to drop $10 on the Coyotes in hopes of making $610. The Preds and Bruins also look like pretty good value.

Betting lines are mostly driven by bets than any predictor. Nice to hear I suppose, but about as important as the no one loves the Pens thread. The Pens are a good team, one among several strong contenders, but just because people bet on them does not make them favorites.

That's not exactly true as lines are made before any bets are taken.

Florida was 125-1 when the season started and the line is a lot lower now and it's not because people bet on them to win the cup.

They have their own power rankings of team which mean a lot more than the know it all's on the internet/tv/radio.

Pittsburgh is very vulnerable.

All of their best players are injury prone..... Crosby, Malkin, Letang.

Plus, they're going to be playing a physical team in Philadelphia in the first round.

You just know Laviolette will be telling his team to hit those guys hard every chance they get.

I also heard they hired Gregg Williams as an assistant coach.

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

Very wide age range on that team.

Pittsburgh is very vulnerable.

All of their best players are injury prone..... Crosby, Malkin, Letang.

Plus, they're going to be playing a physical team in Philadelphia in the first round.

You just know Laviolette will be telling his team to hit those guys hard every chance they get.

Every time those guys take a shift, people are looking to hit them. There's a difference between wanting to hit them and making a good hockey play. Sid and Geno constantly are in great position and have awesome awareness that they rarely take a big hit. When someone takes themselves out of position to take a run at them, they end up looking stupid while watching Sid or Malkin make a great play to beat them and create a scoring opportunity. The playoffs tend to gear towards tight defensive play. I doubt Sid and Geno will be dealing with guys taking runs at them. Just the occasional bump along the boards.

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

If James Neal is a generational talent then Crosby is God on steroids.

We apparently are so good that we bent the space time continuom to fold five 20 year periods into one.

That 'generational' tag is always funny to me, and could use an upgrading for what people really mean. Which is basically 'likely to be among the all time greats.' Some generations have more than one. Mario and Gretzky surely fit. So that phrase fits more than 'generational'. The Pens potentially have two. I will get back to you when they retire to let you know if they fulfilled the potential.

Pittsburgh is very vulnerable.

All of their best players are injury prone..... Crosby, Malkin, Letang.

Plus, they're going to be playing a physical team in Philadelphia in the first round.

You just know Laviolette will be telling his team to hit those guys hard every chance they get.

Woah, you think Laviolette should tell his team to hit Crosby and Malkin?

This is a revelation is coaching tactics. Someone get Philly on the horn, debonair has cracked the case. I can't BELIEVE no one has thought of this before!

Just an FYI. Bookmakers are notoriously horrid at NHL futures bets...especially the ones in Las Vegas.

Pittsburgh is very vulnerable.

All of their best players are injury prone..... Crosby, Malkin, Letang.

Plus, they're going to be playing a physical team in Philadelphia in the first round.

AND playing defense in their defensive zone is sometimes just a suggestion during games (as everyone saw a week ago on national television).

well duh:laugh:

In my opinion Penguins got worst possible opponent right at first round as in my view Flyers have best chance of stopping them.

Considering odds I would say Kings have best for gamble.

With 4, potentially 5 generational talents, I would assume that the market would pick the Pens as favourites

5 generational talents that do once in a lifetime things every day...

I could totally see Malkin dancing like this:

I1wg1DNHbNU

I could totally see Malkin dancing like this:


David Byrne was definitely a generational talent.

Just realeased the odds for Stanley Cup Finals teams

Van vs Pitts is the favourite closely followed by Van vs NYR



Chicago Blackhawks vs Boston Bruins
46.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers
176.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs New Jersey Devils
101.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs New York Rangers
26.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs Ottawa Senators
181.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs Philadelphia Flyers
66.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs Pittsburgh Penguins
26.00

Chicago Blackhawks vs Washington Capitals
141.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Boston Bruins
41.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Florida Panthers
151.00

Detroit Red Wings vs New Jersey Devils
91.00

Detroit Red Wings vs New York Rangers
21.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Ottawa Senators
171.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Philadelphia Flyers
56.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Pittsburgh Penguins
21.00

Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals
126.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Boston Bruins
71.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Florida Panthers
251.00

Los Angeles Kings vs New Jersey Devils
166.00

Los Angeles Kings vs New York Rangers
36.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators
301.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Philadelphia Flyers
101.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Pittsburgh Penguins
36.00

Los Angeles Kings vs Washington Capitals
201.00

Nashville Predators vs Boston Bruins
41.00

Nashville Predators vs Florida Panthers
166.00

Nashville Predators vs New Jersey Devils
101.00

Nashville Predators vs New York Rangers
23.00

Nashville Predators vs Ottawa Senators
176.00

Nashville Predators vs Philadelphia Flyers
61.00

Nashville Predators vs Pittsburgh Penguins
23.00

Nashville Predators vs Washington Capitals
126.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Boston Bruins
101.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Florida Panthers
401.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs New Jersey Devils
251.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs New York Rangers
56.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Ottawa Senators
401.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Philadelphia Flyers
151.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Pittsburgh Penguins
51.00

Phoenix Coyotes vs Washington Capitals
301.00

San Jose Sharks vs Boston Bruins
56.00

San Jose Sharks vs Florida Panthers
226.00

San Jose Sharks vs New Jersey Devils
141.00

San Jose Sharks New York Rangers
31.00

San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators
251.00

San Jose Sharks Philadelphia Flyers
81.00

San Jose Sharks vs Pittsburgh Penguins
31.00

San Jose Sharks vs Washington Capitals
176.00

St. Louis Blues vs Boston Bruins
21.00

St. Louis Blues vs Florida Panthers
76.00

St. Louis Blues vs New Jersey Devils
51.00

St. Louis Blues vs New York Rangers
12.00

St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators
91.00

St. Louis Blues vs Philadelphia Flyers
31.00

St. Louis Blues vs Pittsburgh Penguins
11.00

St. Louis Blues vs Washington Capitals
66.00

Vancouver Canucks vs Boston Bruins
15.00

Vancouver Canucks vs Florida Panthers
56.00

Vancouver Canucks vs New Jersey Devils
36.00

Vancouver Canucks vs New york Rangers
8.50

Vancouver Canucks vs Ottaw Senators
66.00

Vancouver Canucks vs Philadelphia Flyers
23.00

Vancouver Canucks vs Pittsburgh Penguins
8.00

Vancouver Canucks vs Washington Capitals
46.00

Not sure why the Pens are the favorites... all of their top line centers are prone to injury as is their #1 Dman. Can't see all of them making it through and if they lose Letang again they could be in a lot of trouble.

That's a good point. I remember when all of their top line centers and their #1 dman all got injured in 09 ....o wait

I agree with whoever said there is good value on Philly. That first round is going to be tough for both teams but I think Philly can pull it off. If they do win that first round, watch out. 15-1, I might have to do it...

why aren't the pens odds more favorable? we have bettman.

Pittsburgh is rightfully the cup favourite. Their key players are all back in the lineup and you'd be hard pressed to find a team that can match up offensively with them.

But if you want value, take the Bruins at 10-1. Probably the only team I can see beating the Pens in a 7 game series barring injuries to multiple key players.

Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).

No they have 6. Cooke is one of the best ever at getting suspended/injuring people. :sarcasm:

I put zero stock into odds these days. Whatever happens....happens.

Take Game 7 of the 2009 SCF. Everybody and their dog in the media, in Detroit, in Vegas, etc. etc. etc. thought the Red Wings were gonna win.

We all know what happened....'nuff said.

I put zero stock into odds these days. Whatever happens....happens.

Take Game 7 of the 2009 SCF. Everybody and their dog in the media, in Detroit, in Vegas, etc. etc. etc. thought the Red Wings were gonna win.

We all know what happened....'nuff said.

I made $100 on that game on a 2:1 odds bet with a friend. Good times.

The Pens have 2 generational talents and then another 3-4 high-end to elite, but not generational talents.

I made $100 on that game on a 2:1 odds bet with a friend. Good times.

I was in Vegas for that game. I do not even like gambling, was the only bet I made the entire time there. On the Pens to win the game and series.

David Byrne was definitely a generational talent.
that band had 4 or 5 generational talents. :sarcasm: Jerry Harrison was an original member of The Modern Lovers!


Not surprising. They have 4, maybe 5 generational talents (5th is Neal).
also, how did all of you miss the sarcasm. nuclear reactor once posted in a Matt Carle Appreciation Thread - he can never have a valid opinion on anything :sarcasm:

Bettman obviously bet the players escrow fund in Vegas on the Pens, thus skewing the results. Uncle Gary said he's going to make the Pens win it this year just to watch the tears and meltdown on HFboards.

I kid...I kid.

:sarcasm:

I put zero stock into odds these days. Whatever happens....happens.

Take Game 7 of the 2009 SCF. Everybody and their dog in the media, in Detroit, in Vegas, etc. etc. etc. thought the Red Wings were gonna win.

We all know what happened....'nuff said.

Actually the line was really low for a game 7 on home ice. Sucker bet.

So Vegas did its job in getting more money on the Red Wings.

We have better odds than Ottawa and Phoenix? I'm shocked. Those teams kinda scare me. Also think SJ and LA are a little too high in likelihood..

there are a few really nice value bets to make there particularly the wings, bruins, and preds

good god, the odds would have ot be 80:1 for me to put a dime on the blues. I wonder how many people are going to blow money on that? I can't imagine many.

Betting lines are mostly driven by bets than any predictor. Nice to hear I suppose, but about as important as the no one loves the Pens thread. The Pens are a good team, one among several strong contenders, but just because people bet on them does not make them favorites.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

In my opinion Penguins got worst possible opponent right at first round as in my view Flyers have best chance of stopping them.


My thoughts exactly. Honestly I feel kind of underdogish going into the series because of the way things have gone with the Flyers in the regular season. We have a good recent playoff history and Crosby is back so I know we really aren't but I definitely feel this is like ripping the band-aid off.

I put zero stock into odds these days. Whatever happens....happens.

Take Game 7 of the 2009 SCF. Everybody and their dog in the media, in Detroit, in Vegas, etc. etc. etc. thought the Red Wings were gonna win.

We all know what happened....'nuff said.

The point of odds isn't for the team with better odds to win every time. If teams that the market says have a 3/4 chance of winning won every single time, those odds would be too low!

If you think odds are meaningless you could make a ton of money betting on any team with lower than 16:1 (or at the start of the season, 30:1) every year :laugh:

These are the top prices available for each team:

5.50 - Penguins
6.50 - Canucks & Rangers
10.00 - Bruins
12.00 - Blues
14.00 - Red Wings
15.00 - Flyers
17.00 - Predators
18.00 - Blackhawks
26.00 - Sharks
29.00 - Devils & Kings
41.00 - Capitals
51.00 - Panthers & Senators
61.00 - Coyotes
Where did you find these odds?

If you can predict the correct stanley cup final matchup and you put 25$ on each team to win the cup with the subsequent parlays of both teams winning thier conference and being the cup final matchup, you can make over 10000 on bodogs, no joke. If you bet 25$ that Vancouver would win the west, The pens would win the east and that those two would be the finals matchup and the nucks would win the cup, you win 10205$. And thats those are the two with the worst odds.... if you bet on phoenix and the panthers and they made it two the finals, you would make a grand total of 67 mill, not bad.

Sure the Pens are cup favorites, no surprise there. The real question is, who will score more points this playoff... Malkin or Crosby?

Pretty sure if you parlay dependent events the system won't let you do the transaction, even though the little thing at the side will show you what you'd win.

If they do let you... I should go parlay every single finals match-up with that combination of finals winners bets... would win a ton of cash no matter what.

Anyone have odds on Conn Smythe winner? I figure Crosby and Malkin are the favorites.

The Pens have 2 generational talents and then another 3-4 high-end to elite, but not generational talents.

I would say the Pens have two potential generational talents. If they both retired tomorrow, I would not consider them generational talents.

I would say that Malkin, Crosby, and Letang are elite (obviously Malkin and Crosby on a level higher than Letang). Who else are you considering elite on your team?