MLB prospect power potential?

gretzky1545
01-06-2005, 04:59 AM
What baseball prospect that as yet to play in the majors do you see hitting the most homers in their career. Obviously pure speculation, but I'd just like to see who you guys think are the next group of big hitters icurrently in the minors.

Prince Fielder, Ian Stewart, Jason Stokes, Andy Marte....

stanley
01-06-2005, 06:45 AM
It's been said that good hitters can develop power, but powerful men tend not to develop into good hitters. Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, etc. - these guys did not come up through the minor leagues hitting home runs at a rate that in any way foreshadowed what they ended up doing as pros. McGwire blossomed rapidly once he reached the majors. Regardless, one thing they all did have in common was "puck poise." No seriously, they all had good OBPs, meaning they all had seemed to have a good understanding of pitch recognition and the strike zone. Over time, they all managed to shrink the area in which a pitcher could get them out to a fraction of the strike zone. My hunch would be to look for these guys over players that just have good HR and RBI totals in A ball. I don't have a complete enough knowledge of all the prospects in baseball to make an informed answer.

Prince is listed right now at 5'11" 281. Bill James wasn't lying when he wrote about his father: “Fielder acknowledges a weight of 261, leaving unanswered the question of what he might weigh if he put his other foot on the scale.” It seems his son can hit, though. Let's hope his weight doesn't eventually work against him.

"Eventually" - good one, Stan.

Bruinaholic
01-06-2005, 10:40 AM
Prince is listed right now at 5'11" 281. Bill James wasn't lying when he wrote about his father: “Fielder acknowledges a weight of 261, leaving unanswered the question of what he might weigh if he put his other foot on the scale.” It seems his son can hit, though. Let's hope his weight doesn't eventually work against him.

"Eventually" - good one, Stan.

Damn, hes def is one fat chip off the old block.

Impossibles
01-06-2005, 10:48 AM
Apparently Prince could hit homers out of Tiger stadium when he was 13 (in BP).

And yes, that is fat.

MontrealCruiser_83*
01-06-2005, 11:29 AM
Fielder: http://rds.yahoo.com/S=96062883/K=prince+fielder/v=2/SID=e/l=IVI/SIG=12dsrj6p5/EXP=1105118922/*-http%3A//www.floridatoday.com/galleries/fielder/prince4.jpg

gretzky1545
01-07-2005, 12:45 AM
It's been said that good hitters can develop power, but powerful men tend not to develop into good hitters. Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, etc. - these guys did not come up through the minor leagues hitting home runs at a rate that in any way foreshadowed what they ended up doing as pros. McGwire blossomed rapidly once he reached the majors. Regardless, one thing they all did have in common was "puck poise." No seriously, they all had good OBPs, meaning they all had seemed to have a good understanding of pitch recognition and the strike zone. Over time, they all managed to shrink the area in which a pitcher could get them out to a fraction of the strike zone. My hunch would be to look for these guys over players that just have good HR and RBI totals in A ball. I don't have a complete enough knowledge of all the prospects in baseball to make an informed answer.

Prince is listed right now at 5'11" 281. Bill James wasn't lying when he wrote about his father: “Fielder acknowledges a weight of 261, leaving unanswered the question of what he might weigh if he put his other foot on the scale.” It seems his son can hit, though. Let's hope his weight doesn't eventually work against him.

"Eventually" - good one, Stan.


was it a coincidence that you listed three known steroids users when forming an argument for 'developing' power later in your career?

IkeaMonkey*
01-07-2005, 12:52 AM
Wasn't McGwire using "legal" steroids?

Tuggy
01-07-2005, 01:02 AM
Fielder: http://rds.yahoo.com/S=96062883/K=prince+fielder/v=2/SID=e/l=IVI/SIG=12dsrj6p5/EXP=1105118922/*-http%3A//www.floridatoday.com/galleries/fielder/prince4.jpg

He looks like a beast!

gretzky1545
01-07-2005, 04:06 AM
Wasn't McGwire using "legal" steroids?
at the time, yes they were legal, but it still taints him in my mind. Not that everyone doesnt use some form of performance enhancers, but mcgwires were bound to end up being banned, he was just taking advantage of it while it wasnt.

stanley
01-07-2005, 06:01 PM
was it a coincidence that you listed three known steroids users when forming an argument for 'developing' power later in your career?
Mostly coincidence. Before I submitted the post, it occurred to me that all three have been accused or involved with some sort of "enhancement," but I would be very cautious at pointing to drugs/steroids as the reason for their ability to hit. All three could always hit, always had great awareness of the strike zone. McGwire developed power earlier than the other two (I believe his 50 HR still stand as a rookie record), and he's a big man to begin with. It's subjective, but I feel that all three would have been at least respectable home run hitters in any era. I have no desire whatsoever to pollute your thread with this stuff. I say we should stick to your original topic.

I can't remember the exact sources, but I've read a couple of articles on the belief that power can readily be developed but understanding the strike zone is relatively innate. Check out baseballprospectus.com or one of James's abstracts.

Edit: All three always had good understanding of the strike zone if not great batting average. McGwire didn't do much but homer, walk, and strike out for the first part of his career and he never really developed into a fantastic all around hitter. Always great OPS though. They're just loose examples; don't get away from the theme of my post (summarized in previous paragraph).

Dr Love
01-07-2005, 06:07 PM
was it a coincidence that you listed three known steroids users when forming an argument for 'developing' power later in your career?
Andro was more of a supplement than a steriod, and Bonds was a great player before BALCO.

Burberry Manning
01-07-2005, 06:30 PM
Wasn't McGwire using "legal" steroids?
Yea he claimed all he was using was Andro but who knows. I'd almost guarentee that he was using illegal steriods as well and the andro thing was just a small concession to appease the media. Andro wont bulk you up that much and his body development was almost more staggering than Barry's or Sosa's.

Burberry Manning
01-07-2005, 06:31 PM
Andro was more of a supplement than a steriod, and Bonds was a great player before BALCO.
Bond's was a fabulous player but I dont think he would have been a legends without the roids and homerun explosion. A surefire HOFer but not in the same category as Ruth, Aaron, Gehrig, ect.

IkeaMonkey*
01-07-2005, 06:39 PM
Yea he claimed all he was using was Andro but who knows. I'd almost guarentee that he was using illegal steriods as well and the andro thing was just a small concession to appease the media. Andro wont bulk you up that much and his body development was almost more staggering than Barry's or Sosa's.

More Staggering than Bonds?? Bonds was of the Ichiro build early in his career. McGwire wasnt AS big early in his career, but he sure as hell was bigger than Bonds.

gretzky1545
01-07-2005, 06:53 PM
ok, my comment wasnt meant to bring those three's career into question, i think they all would have been great players no matter what, but obviously power numbers would drop a bit.

Back to the power prospect thing, delmon young obviously comes to mind...anyone else think of more?