MLB Mock Evaluations Part III: Best Rotation

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 01:17 AM
ICW:
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Rich Harden
LHP Odalis Perez
RHP Brad Penny
RHP Tomo Ohka
(Tim Wakefield)

FOTS:
Roger Clemens
Ben Sheets
Jake Westbrook
Wade Miller(injured)
Noah Lowry

Hercules:
Pedro Martinez
Andy Pettite
Livan Hernandez
Jarrod Washburn
Scott Kazmir

Tuggy:
Bartolo Colón
Dontrelle Willis
Kelvim Escobar
Al Leiter
David Bush

DynamoAO
SP:Barry Zito
SP:Matt Morris
SP:Javier Vazquez
SP:Russ Ortiz
SP:Zack Greinke

Jared:
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Freddy Garcia
RHP Kris Benson
RHP A.J. Burnett
RHP Jerome Williams

Dr Love
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Carlos "The Good" Zambrano
SP: Mark Buerhle
SP: Jeff Weaver
SP: Brandon Webb

Stanley:
SP: Bronson Arroyo
SP: Mike Mussina
SP: Doug Davis
SP: Joe Blanton
SP: John Lieber

AtG:
SP: Roy Halladay
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Ted Lilly
SP: Derek Lowe
SP: Kenny Rogers

Roughneck:
SP: Kerry Wood
SP: Josh Beckett
SP: Eric Milton
SP: Jeremy Bonderman
SP: Jeff Suppan

Winger98:
SP: Randy Johnson
SP: Curt Schilling
SP: Brad Radke
SP: John Smoltz
SP: Mike Maroth

Bauldie:
Jason Schmidt
Jake Peavy
Chris Carpenter
David Wells
Jaret Wright

Monster_Bertuzzi:
Mulder
Pavano
Clement
Hampton
Marquis

Islandnucker:
SP-Mark Prior
SP-Roy Oswalt
SP-C.C. Sabathia
SP-Adam Eaton
SP-Tony Armas JR

Gibsons Finest
04-07-2005, 01:29 AM
I really like ICW's, very solid from top to bottom, and I also like my own, although I am biased. I'll give my vote to ICW, as I figure it is easily the most solid all-around, and does have that Ace. The 6th starter, Tim Wakefield or Tomo Ohka, is also very good for the 6th starter.

IkeaMonkey*
04-07-2005, 01:33 AM
My starters look extremely solid so far this season....


(!!!!!)

hockeyfan125
04-07-2005, 01:34 AM
Icw.

IkeaMonkey*
04-07-2005, 01:36 AM
Oh and Islandernucker runs away with it, btw.

Hossa
04-07-2005, 01:40 AM
I don't know who's voting or what the backstory on all of this is, but of those rotations, Dr. Love's is defenitely my favourite.

Hudson is one of the very best in baseball, Zambrano is young, coming off a strong year and has sick potential, then there's Buerhle, who's already won 19 games, and has been his team's ace since he was about 22. Weaver has ace stuff, but is still a heck of a third or fourth starter, and to me Webb will be fantastic, but I love a good sinkerballer, so maybe I like him too much.

But to me it's the only list that has all of top end talent, depth, and upside. I mean, Weaver's the only one who had an ERA above 4, and it was at 4.01. None are over 30 either. Dr. Love owns all here.

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 01:54 AM
I'm not going to bother evaluating, I'm just going to rant about a few pitchers on the list:

Jake Westbrook: Had a good year last year, and living proof of the power of the ground ball. OK control, pedesrian walk rate, mediocre dinger rate, and yet ended the year with 134 *ERA+. Extreme ground ball pitcher. I think he's also the poster boy of DIPS, because he puts a lot of balls in play that to properly evaluate him you need DIPS.

Livan Hernandez: I don't like the quality starts stat, but I believe he's in the top 3 of that stat the last couple of years. The man is a HUGE innings eater. Pedestrian peripherals (6.6k/9, 2.9b/9, 0.9hr/9), but the man throws a RIDICULOUS amount of innings. AVERAGES 233IP per season at a career average of *ERA+ of 102! Great middle of the rotation starter if you need somebody to eat innings at a league average rate, and he's been well above leageu average the last couple of seasons.

Bartolo Colon: Just somehow fell off the map last yaer. Was below league average for the first tiem in his career, and his dinger rate SKYROCKETED last year (1.6HR/9). Should be a bounce back year for Bartolo, but we'll see.

Russ Ortiz: RUSS ORTIZ BLOWS. STINKFEST peripherals ( 4.9bb/9 6.3k/9 1.0 HR/9). Mets fans, think of Russ Ortiz as if the Bad Zambrano somehow had the good fortune of running into Leo Mazzone and teh Braves Defense. You'd get better control if you had DAVID Ortiz HIT balls at the catcher.

Javier Vazquez: A GREAT great pitcher when he was in MTL, but was absolutely asstastic last half of the 2004. OVer 200K's a season and 4:1 k/bb ratio in MTL. I still insist that Mel Stottlemyre broke him.

Matt Morris: Also fell off the map last year, plagued by dinger trouble (1.6 HR/9). But this is a career 118 *ERA+ guy, and he should bounce back.

Doug Davis: People should really know who is, because he doesn't suck. It's the first time in a long time that being the Brewer's #2 starter actually meant something positive.

Greg Maddux: Before I rant about Greg Maddux, I'd just like to qualify all my following statements with this: He's the 2nd greatest pitcher of this generation.

Traditionally very good at preventing long balls, his dinger rate EXPLODED last year (a recurring theme I know). Still has EXCELLENT control, and his K rate actually IMPROVED from his 02 and 03 totals last year (still doesn't K like in his prime though). This isn't the mid 90's Greg Maddux anymore, but he can pitch on my team.

Derek Lowe: A 6'6 170lb piece of sucktitude. He's like the Drew Barrymore of pitching, as in that I could have found better people for the job on the street. 11 runs BELOW replacement level. 90 *ERA+. Was also walking a ridiculous amount of people and not King much (3.5bb/9, 5.3k/9).

To borrow a line from comic book guy from the Simpsons: Putting a sinkerball pitcher with bad control in Skydome (you are the Jays AtG) with the ball zooming through the infield: WORST. IDEA. EVER.

Eric Milton: Balls were flying out of the park so fast that Larry Bowa got whiplash. His peripherals actually aren't all that terrible (7.2k/9, 3.4 bb/9), but that 1.9 HR/9 stat was absolutely stinktastic. Did I mentino he was significantly below league average last year? (92 *ERA+)

Mike Maroth: Well, his claim to fame was to say that he proved Bill James wrong. Bill James in the Abstracts 2001 wrote that we had seen the last of the 20 game loser. Mike Maroth proved him wrong. He's actually not THAT bad for a 5th starter, but 03 was definitly THE low point of his career.

Mike Hampton: I've said this many times, but the highest paid pitcher of ALL TIME is STILL Mike Hampton. Great trivia question.

Mark Prior: No perfect mechanics can be a match for Dusty Baker's Jedi power of "Those are not the pitch counts you are looking for".

IkeaMonkey*
04-07-2005, 01:58 AM
Ortiz is 1-0 so far this year. Just like I said, he just wins. Just win baby!

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 01:59 AM
I don't know who's voting or what the backstory on all of this is, but of those rotations, Dr. Love's is defenitely my favourite.

Hudson is one of the very best in baseball, Zambrano is young, coming off a strong year and has sick potential, then there's Buerhle, who's already won 19 games, and has been his team's ace since he was about 22. Weaver has ace stuff, but is still a heck of a third or fourth starter, and to me Webb will be fantastic, but I love a good sinkerballer, so maybe I like him too much.

But to me it's the only list that has all of top end talent, depth, and upside. I mean, Weaver's the only one who had an ERA above 4, and it was at 4.01. None are over 30 either. Dr. Love owns all here.

You don't realize how good that rotation is until you realize NOBODY on that list is over 30. Hudson has that "hip" problem, but he is the biggest of the big 3, and now he's got LEO AND THE BRAVES! I'll go ahead and say that Tim Hudson will be in the HOF. You can take that one to teh bank.

The Good Zambrano was very good last year, but I'm waiting for Dusty Baker to break him.

Mark Buerhle is only 26, and can eat a HUGE amount of innings at an above league average rate with great control.

Jeff Weaver is no ace. But again, another recurring theme, great inning eater at league average.

Brandon Webb ran into some nasty control problems last yaer, but should bounce back.

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 02:01 AM
Ortiz is 1-0 so far this year. Just like I said, he just wins. Just win baby!

Wow. 2 walks 3 ks and 1 a dinger in 6 innings. Impressive.

IkeaMonkey*
04-07-2005, 02:03 AM
He's also a career .208 hitter!

Fish on The Sand
04-07-2005, 02:08 AM
well, here is where I think I have the best of the bunch. I carefully handpicked my rotation, and if you ignore Miller's inury, its pretty easy to justify my opinion on this.

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 02:32 AM
Dr Love's rotation matches up better than yours, and mine also a certain extent.

Roger Clemens vs. Tim Hudson vs. Johan Santana

Comparing apples, oranges, and bananas in a 3 way study. Clemens is the greatest pitcher in our generation, but he's got one last year left. Tim Hudson has been the greatest pitcher this millenia, and Santana had that Pedro Martinez-esque you-can't-doanything-so-sit-down-biatch season last year after 2 excellent seasons previuos to that.

Ben Sheets vs. Carlos Zambrano vs. Rich Harden
Zambrano is the best of the bunch of young hot shot starters, with 2 and a half seasons of above league average pitching. Sheets and Harden both have one, but Sheets has had an extra 3 years of figuring out his control issues. Zambrano > Sheets, and Harden a distant 3rd because it's not fair to compare a second year pitcher to 4th year pitchers.

Westbrook vs. Burherle vs. Odalis Perez
Mark Buherle has 4 good seasons under his belt. Odalis Perez 2. Jake Westbrook 1. Not much needs to be said. (ironically, Odalis Perez ranks 2nd on Ben Sheet's similarity scorecard)

Wade Miller vs. Jeff Weaver vs. Brad Penny
Miller is out until June, Brad Penny is on the 15 DL, and Jeff Weaver continues to eat innings at a league average rate. Penny and Miller are actually very similar pitchers, both young pitchers with good strikeout rates but have arm problems.

Noah Lowry vs. Brandon Webb vs Ohka/Wakefield
A lefty with 90 IPs of MLB pitchign vs. a 2 year sinkerballer pitcher (great rookie season, massive control problems last season) vs. Japanese Pitcher with control and above league average ERA combined with a 38 old knuckleballer who can be called "Old Reliable"

Yeah, your rotation is jsut clearly better than ours.

Fish on The Sand
04-07-2005, 02:59 AM
Dr Love's rotation matches up better than yours, and mine also a certain extent.

Roger Clemens vs. Tim Hudson vs. Johan Santana

Comparing apples, oranges, and bananas in a 3 way study. Clemens is the greatest pitcher in our generation, but he's got one last year left. Tim Hudson has been the greatest pitcher this millenia, and Santana had that Pedro Martinez-esque you-can't-doanything-so-sit-down-biatch season last year after 2 excellent seasons previuos to that.

Ben Sheets vs. Carlos Zambrano vs. Rich Harden
Zambrano is the best of the bunch of young hot shot starters, with 2 and a half seasons of above league average pitching. Sheets and Harden both have one, but Sheets has had an extra 3 years of figuring out his control issues. Zambrano > Sheets, and Harden a distant 3rd because it's not fair to compare a second year pitcher to 4th year pitchers.

Westbrook vs. Burherle vs. Odalis Perez
Mark Buherle has 4 good seasons under his belt. Odalis Perez 2. Jake Westbrook 1. Not much needs to be said. (ironically, Odalis Perez ranks 2nd on Ben Sheet's similarity scorecard)

Wade Miller vs. Jeff Weaver vs. Brad Penny
Miller is out until June, Brad Penny is on the 15 DL, and Jeff Weaver continues to eat innings at a league average rate. Penny and Miller are actually very similar pitchers, both young pitchers with good strikeout rates but have arm problems.

Noah Lowry vs. Brandon Webb vs Ohka/Wakefield
A lefty with 90 IPs of MLB pitchign vs. a 2 year sinkerballer pitcher (great rookie season, massive control problems last season) vs. Japanese Pitcher with control and above league average ERA combined with a 38 old knuckleballer who can be called "Old Reliable"

Yeah, your rotation is jsut clearly better than ours.
Zambrano is not better than Sheets, and when healthy Miller is much better than the other 2.

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-07-2005, 04:10 AM
Zambrano is not better than Sheets

Zambrano career *ERA+: 133
Sheet career *ERA+: 107

Sheets had better peripherals last year, but still got beat in *ERA+ by Zambrano. Besides, their career rate stats aren't even close.

Making stuff up is fun I know.

Legionnaire
04-07-2005, 09:17 AM
I like either Dr. Love's or Bauldies. Tough call.

Fish on The Sand
04-07-2005, 06:06 PM
Zambrano career *ERA+: 133
Sheet career *ERA+: 107

Sheets had better peripherals last year, but still got beat in *ERA+ by Zambrano. Besides, their career rate stats aren't even close.

Making stuff up is fun I know.
why use era+, it has no basis in real life statistics. It is a stat about what ifs, and baseball isn't what ifs.

Dr Love
04-07-2005, 06:13 PM
why use era+, it has no basis in real life statistics.
Yes it does. Why use it? Because it measures overall performance.

It is a stat about what ifs, and baseball isn't what ifs.
You have no idea what you are talking about, do you?

Fish on The Sand
04-07-2005, 06:42 PM
Yes it does. Why use it? Because it measures overall performance.


You have no idea what you are talking about, do you?
A pitchers ERA, adjusted for ballpark, against the league average.

In other words. Crap the pitcher has no control over. It punishes pitchers who play on bad teams because they score less runs thus making their ballpark less run friendly....or so it would seem. Case and point with Ben Sheets. Played on a crappy team all his life and gets punished because of it. I realize Sheets doesn't have a good win/loss but lets not forget he has played for the Brewers and did start at a very young age. I actually didn't realize Zambrano has now had consecutive seasons as being really good, I guess watching him crtap the bed in the playoffs still burns in my mind. Regardless, Sheets has been a horse his entire career with 3 seasons in a row of big time ip, and as he showed last year is a strike out god. After this season Sheets will be looked at as one of the 5 best starters in baseball, Zambrano won't.

Dr Love
04-07-2005, 07:36 PM
It punishes pitchers who play on bad teams because they score less runs thus making their ballpark less run friendly....or so it would seem.I repeat: you have no idea what you are talking about. I'm not going to waste any more of my time with this issue.

Ironchef Chris Wok*
04-09-2005, 11:14 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=250409116

I need to qualify the following statement with 2 clarifications:
1) This IS just one game, and only seasons can properly evaluate players.
2) I'm not the gloating type.

But...

WWWWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

pwnage.