2003-04 regular season predictions version 1 (feel free to criticize)

If you see something that you think doesn't make much sense or a player/team that is over/underrated or anything that you think should be changed, a statistical inconsistency or something that just makes you yell out "WTF!?" , feel free to point it out...

REGULAR SEASON STANDINGS

(Team Name - GP - W - L - OTL - T - PTS)

Western Conference

* Colorado Avalanche - 82 - 52 - 23 - 0 - 7 - 111
* Detroit Red Wings - 82 - 52 - 25 - 2 - 3 - 109
* Dallas Stars - 82 - 46 - 24 - 3 - 9 - 104
Vancouver Canucks - 82 - 47 - 24 - 2 - 9 - 105
Los Angeles Kings - 82 - 41 - 29 - 5 - 7 - 94
San Jose Sharks - 82 - 42 - 33 - 3 - 4 - 91
St. Louis Blues - 82 - 42 - 33 - 4 - 3 - 91
Phoenix Coyotes - 82 - 38 - 33 - 4 - 7 - 87
--
Chicago Blackhawks - 82 - 36 - 35 - 2 - 9 - 83
Anaheim Mighty Ducks - 82 - 34 - 33 - 6 - 9 - 83
Columbus Blue Jackets - 82 - 34 - 41 - 2 - 5 - 75
Minnesota Wild - 82 - 33 - 40 - 1 - 8 - 75
Calgary Flames - 82 - 29 - 41 - 2 - 10 - 70
Edmonton Oilers - 82 - 30 - 43 - 1 - 8 - 69
Nashville Predators - 82 - 24 - 44 - 4 - 10 - 62

Eastern Conference

* New Jersey Devils - 82 - 49 - 23 - 2 - 8 - 108
* Ottawa Senators - 42 - 23 - 8 - 9 - 101
* Tampa Bay Lightning - 37 - 34 - 1 - 10 - 85
Philadelphia Flyers - 82 - 47 - 28 - 2 - 5 - 101
Toronto Maple Leafs - 82 - 43 - 25 - 3 - 11 - 100
New York Islanders - 82 - 40 - 25 - 5 - 12 - 97
Boston Bruins - 82 - 45 - 31 - 2 - 4 - 96
Buffalo Sabres - 82 - 36 - 38 - 3 - 5 - 80
--
New York Rangers - 82 - 32 - 39 - 5 - 6 - 75
Washington Capitals - 82 - 30 - 37 - 4 - 11 - 75
Carolina Hurricanes - 82 - 31 - 40 - 0 - 11 - 73
Montreal Canadiens - 82 - 28 - 44 - 2 - 8 - 66
Florida Panthers - 82 - 26 - 42 - 4 - 10 - 66
Atlanta Thrashers - 82 - 28 - 46 - 1 - 7 - 64
Pittsburgh Penguins - 82 - 21 - 56 - 0 - 5 - 47

LEAGUE LEADING SCORERS

(Player Name - GP - G - A - PTS)

Total Points

1. Alexei Kovalev - 82 - 44 - 55 - 99
2. Joe Thornton - 82 - 39 - 59 - 98
3. Jason Allison - 80 - 41 - 56 - 97
4. Zigmund Palffy - 82 - 40 - 56 - 96
5. Glen Murray - 82 - 42 - 51 - 93
6. Markus Naslund - 82 - 45 - 47 - 92
7. Jaromir Jagr - 79 - 36 - 55 - 91
8. Peter Forsberg - 81 - 40 - 50 - 90
9. Sergei Samsonov - 79 - 37 - 52 - 89
10. Milan Hejduk - 79 - 51 - 37 - 88

Goals

1. Milan Hejduk - 79 - 51 - 37 - 88
2. Markus Naslund - 82 - 45 - 47 - 92
3. Alexei Kovalev - 82 - 44 - 55 - 99
4. Glen Murray - 82 - 42 - 51 - 93
5. Vincent Lecavalier - 81 - 42 - 39 - 81
6. Jason Allison - 80 - 41 - 56 - 97
7t. Zigmund Palffy - 82 - 40 - 56 - 96
7t. Peter Forsberg - 82 - 40 - 50 - 90
7t. Ilya Kovalchuk - 77 - 40 - 36 - 76
10t. Joe Thornton - 82 - 39 - 59 - 98
10t. Jarome Iginla - 82 - 39 - 30 - 69

Assists

1. Joe Thornton - 82 - 39 - 59 - 98
2t. Martin Havlat - 82 - 28 - 56 - 84
2t. Jason Allison - 80 - 41 - 56 - 97
2t. Zigmund Palffy - 82 - 40 - 56 - 96
5. Jaromir Jagr - 79 - 36 - 55 - 91
6t. Alexei Kovalev - 82 - 44 - 55 - 99
6t. Mario Lemieux - 49 - 24 - 55 - 79
8. Sergei Samsonov - 79 - 37 - 52 - 89
9t. Marian Hossa - 82 - 34 - 51 - 85
9t. Glen Murray - 82 - 42 - 51 - 93

GOALTENDING LEADERS

Save Percentage

1. Dominik Hasek - 0.930
2t. David Aebischer - 0.927
2t. Sebastien Caron - 0.927
4. John Grahame - 0.925
5. Tomas Vokoun - 0.924
6t. Ed Belfour - 0.919
6t. Martin Brodeur - 0.919
8. Byron Dafoe - 0.918
9. Jamie Storr - 0.916
10t. Jocelyn Thibault - 0.915
10t. Roberto Luongo - 0.915
10t. Roman Cechmanek - 0.915

GAA

1. Dominik Hasek - 1.90
2. David Aebischer - 1.91
3. Martin Brodeur - 2.13
4. John Grahame - 2.18
5. Dan Cloutier - 2.21
6. Ed Belfour - 2.28
7. Marty Turco - 2.30
8t. Rick DiPietro - 2.38
8t. Tomas Vokoun - 2.38
10. Patrick Lalime - 2.41

:joker:

Best. Thread. Ever?

:joker:

Best. Thread. Ever?

Maybe, I haven't seen all threads ever though.

I agree that Edmonton will end up behind Calgary. I'm sure both will have more than 70 points.

Leaving the Capitals out of this, because supposedly I am incredibly biased.

Boston - I think you are sick, if you think Boston will win 45 games.A dry,banged up defense,3 non-#1 goalies. 6 teams in the NHL won 45 games last year,I wouldnt rank this year's team close to any of them.

Isles/Rick DiPietro- Don't get me wrong, I'm huge on RickyD, but a 2.38 GAA for a second year goalie?I highly doubt it. I also believe the Rags will make the playoffs over the Isles this year.

Buffalo- I like what they did with the late-season/offseason trades, but I just dont think they are ready for the playoffs yet. Put the Rags at #6 and Isles at #8, then I'm happy.

Phoenix- In the playoffs? I really dont see it at all. Burke can work wonders, even at his age, but there is just no punch there whatsoever.

Anaheim- At least a playoff team. I am a fan of Fedorov,Prospal > Oatsey, Korea.Michelan man will probly have a good to great regular season and at least chalk it at 7-8 spot.

JOHN FLIPPIN GRAHME-He won't even be starting and if Khabibobby is traded(which by your Aebischer numbers, it doesnt look like he is going to Colorado) he will be facing unearthy amounts of rubber, which he is not used to.

Cechmanek- I find it kinda ironic that you give Roman a top 10 save percentage but a 2.4+ GAA. Even tho his regular season avg GAA in his career is what 2.10 and his save% stinks on ice.

I'd like to see the justification for having the Sharks, Yotes, and Hawks all ahead of the Ducks. I like the Sharks, love the Yotes, but I'd say this is a very very long shot. Good work though, very extensive.

it's aboot as plausible as anything, though i suspect los angeles and minnesota, regardless of the records they compile, will play pretty tight hockey and will have WAY more ties / OT losses.

If the Preds lose 20 more times than they win, I would imagine Vokoun wouldn't be in the top 5-10 in any statistical category.

* Detroit Red Wings - 82 - 82 - 25 - 2 - 3 - 109
Well....

Holy Macaroni! 82 Wins?

;)

I think the order of the teams is a little out of wack with the Ducks, Oilers and Wild missing the playoffs while Sharks and Coyotes are in. The East looks alright though.

Reguarding the induvidual player stats;

Where is Teemu Selanne for goals?
Where is Peter Forsberg for assists?
Where is Joe Sakic for either goals or assists?

Forsberg had 77 assists last year and not one player had over 56?

Aebischer and Caron have .927 save percentages, and Hasek leads the league with .930? Yeah right.

Also, this is just my opinion here, but John Grahame will not be among the league leaders in anything.

Well....

Holy Macaroni! 82 Wins?

;)

I think the order of the teams is a little out of wack with the Ducks, Oilers and Wild missing the playoffs while Sharks and Coyotes are in. The East looks alright though.

Reguarding the induvidual player stats;

Where is Teemu Selanne for goals?
Where is Peter Forsberg for assists?
Where is Joe Sakic for either goals or assists?

Forsberg had 77 assists last year and not one player had over 56?

Aebischer and Caron have .927 save percentages, and Hasek leads the league with .930? Yeah right.

Also, this is just my opinion here, but John Grahame will not be among the league leaders in anything.

OK, it was 52 wins... 82 was a typo :D

Forsberg: 81 - 40 - 50 - 90
Selanne: 81 - 21 - 29 - 50 (I think he won't see as much ice time and will have to play more defensively...)
Sakic: 82 - 30 - 39 - 69

Oh and thanks for the posts guys, I'm taking notes... :)

WEST

Flames and Oilers will both finish between 6-10th but no lower, too close to call in that division.

Detroit will stuggle to make the top 4 and Dallas will beat out Colorado for top spot.

Minnesota will miss the playoffs.

EAST

Philadelphia will beat out Ottawa for top spot.

New York Rangers will make the playoffs.

Toronto will have to fight off Atlanta and Buffalo for the last playoff spot.

Tampa Bay will miss the playoffs.

NO WAY Florida ends up with 66 points. Luongo is ready to shine, the defense is much improved, they have a better balance of grit/finese, and they could have a few guys breakout this season. I think more around 82-92 points for the Panthers this year, with the eight spot.

Cechmanek- I find it kinda ironic that you give Roman a top 10 save percentage but a 2.4+ GAA. Even tho his regular season avg GAA in his career is what 2.10 and his save% stinks on ice.
Obviously, you know nothing about Roman Cechmanek. Both his save percentage and GAA are #1 in the league over the past three years. I think he'll definately be top 10, if not top 3 in both categories.

Do you honestly think that neither Flyer goalie will have a GAA below 2.4? Come on, If Hackett has a terrible year, his GAA MIGHT be that high. If he plays well, he'll put up one of the top 5 GAA will the way the Flyers play.

I also believe that the Flyers are a better team will full years from Amonte, Kapanen, Gagne, Williams, and Leclair (I hope). I don't think they'll get less points, I think they'll get around 105-110, which should be just behind Ottawa, i think they'll squeak ahead of NJ though.

Obviously, you know nothing about Roman Cechmanek. Both his save percentage and GAA are #1 in the league over the past three years. I think he'll definately be top 10, if not top 3 in both categories.

CHRIST FORGIVE ME! I AM NOT WORTHY!!!! I DO NOT FOLLOW OTHER TEAM'S GOALTENDERS RELIGIOUSLY,SAVE MY SOUL!

LOL, I love it the Oil with 69 points this year. That is too funny, thx man :)

Seriously, are you predicting a tragic accident will befall the Oilers and they will have to play their roadrunner team in the NHL? That is the only way they are going to drop 23 points from last year :)

Cheers bud :)

Islanders - They aren't that good. Slight homerism on your part but I'll let that go. ;)

A few things that I think are way off base.
- AK27 leading the league in scoring, though I think 90+ points is reasonable
- no one eclipsing the 100 point mark (well, not way off base)
- Dipietro, Vokoun, Grahame, Aebischer with that high of a GAA
- Hasek being that good a year removed from the NHL
- San Jose being that good


I like what you did with Colorado. I too don't think they'll have tremendous offensive seasons. Just too much talent spread around.

Overall solid predictions. A for effort, B+ for results. :)

Obviously, you know nothing about Roman Cechmanek. Both his save percentage and GAA are #1 in the league over the past three years. I think he'll definately be top 10, if not top 3 in both categories.

Obviously, you know nothing about Marty Turco. Both his save percentage and GAA are #1 in the league over the past three years. Granted, two years were as a backup, but he still has better numbers.

How can Burke, who constantly has a .920 or better, not make the goaltender list?

OK, it was 52 wins... 82 was a typo :D

Forsberg: 81 - 40 - 50 - 90
Selanne: 81 - 21 - 29 - 50 (I think he won't see as much ice time and will have to play more defensively...)
Sakic: 82 - 30 - 39 - 69

Oh and thanks for the posts guys, I'm taking notes... :)

Yikes...the only way Selanne gets 21 goals and plays more defensively is if he's on the third line. He might not be a league leader in goals..it remains to be seen how the influx of talent affects the numbers of the Avs top 6...but predicting less than 25 for him is going a bit far imo.

Additionally, why the sharp rise in goals for Forsberg, and drop in assists. Its expected his linemates won't be changing from last year too much, so I'm interested as to why he'd get ten more goals this year than he's ever gotten before. Personally I see Sakic and Selanne's numbers rising, and Forsberg's and Hejduk's numbers dropping. Maybe not dramatically,

I like one thing about these predictions: Caron with a .927 Save %
:handclap:

NO WAY Florida ends up with 66 points. Luongo is ready to shine, the defense is much improved, they have a better balance of grit/finese, and they could have a few guys breakout this season. I think more around 82-92 points for the Panthers this year, with the eight spot.
I agree 66 pts is a little low, but no way anywhere around 90 points for the Cats.

I'd say maybe somewhere around 70-75 pts.

Sakic, Kariya, and Selanne all miss the 10 ten and Aebischer ends up second in save % and GAA.

I would guess those two things have about the same chance of happening...slim to none.

Following the tradition of the first post, here's some more predictions:

WEST:
x-Columbus Blue Jackets
x-Phoenix Coyotes
x-Calgary Flames
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Edmonton Oilers
Minnesota Wild

Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Colorado Avalanche

EAST:
x-Atlanta Thrashers
x-Pittsburgh Penguins
x-Buffalo Sabres
New York Rangers
Florida Panthers
Carolina Hurricanes
Montreal Canadiens
NY Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators

Following the tradition of the first post, here's some more predictions:

WEST:
x-Columbus Blue Jackets
x-Phoenix Coyotes
x-Calgary Flames
Nashville Predators
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Edmonton Oilers
Minnesota Wild

Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Los Angeles Kings
Vancouver Canucks
St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Colorado Avalanche

EAST:
x-Atlanta Thrashers
x-Pittsburgh Penguins
x-Buffalo Sabres
New York Rangers
Florida Panthers
Carolina Hurricanes
Montreal Canadiens
NY Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning
Boston Bruins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Stop being a damn moron, the guy put some good effort into this and you moch him. Grow Up

I don't think anyone can judge any standings because injuries have to come into play. I would have thought SJ and LA were going to make the playoffs last year but because of injuries and holdouts they both did poorly.

1 Prediction - Look out for Buffalo, I am getting an odd feeling with them, I think they may make the playoffs.

Hey, grow up! Calling me a "moron"...thats just harsh and I don't know if I'll ever recover. :rolly:

And yes, I'd agree that Buffalo has made big steps this year and could be playoff bound.

I don't think anyone can judge any standings because injuries have to come into play. I would have thought SJ and LA were going to make the playoffs last year but because of injuries and holdouts they both did poorly.

Why can't we judge them? Everyone has their predictions as to who will end up where. You take everything into account, including injuries, and give it your best shot. I don't think anyone who makes standings predictions actually expects them to turn out perfectly. I agree, Hemfan's attempt at critique was pretty much useless, but at the same time, why post your predictions if you don't want some critique of them? The whole point is to "judge the standings".

Where is Dany Heatley in goals, assists and points? I see him with more points then last year because Kovalchuk will be better, so more PP points for Dany. Plus, he will play with the same linemates and with the second half he had with them AND his performance in the WH I see him being one of the best if not the best player in the league this year.

Forsberg, 40 goals and 50 assists??

Why can't we judge them? Everyone has their predictions as to who will end up where. You take everything into account, including injuries, and give it your best shot. I don't think anyone who makes standings predictions actually expects them to turn out perfectly. I agree, Hemfan's attempt at critique was pretty much useless, but at the same time, why post your predictions if you don't want some critique of them? The whole point is to "judge the standings".
What he did was downright ignorent and he was the first one I picked out. There are probably others but you don't try and lower someone else to make you feel higher.

What he did was downright ignorent and he was the first one I picked out. There are probably others but you don't try and lower someone else to make you feel higher.

We should all keep that in mind more often, you included. However, you said in your previous post that we shouldn't be judging people's predictions because we don't know for certain what will happen with injuries and whatnot. My point was, why the hell not. If he's posting them, he's looking for conversation and critique.

he's looking for conversation and critique.

Well, exactly... that's why I posted it...

But I don't think Colorado and Ottawa will be last in their conferences like hemskyfan suggested :p

I think Ottawa wins the East. Captials and Lighting are closer in points. The loser of that plus the Islanders, Sabres, Bruins, Rangers will fight over the final 3 spots.

On the point totals. I think Naslund and Bertuzzi will be at it again this year. somewhere around 2/3 and 5/6 in the league