FF Player of the Day - Travis Henry

Each year we start a number of threads here in order to discuss various players of interest for this coming fantasy football season. As we all gear up for our drafts, these threads have proven to be a good resource for us as we get to tap into the combined FF intellect (so called) of the HF community. Please weigh in with your thoughts on the player in question, including where you would consider drafting him and what sort of upside you think they have statistically.

Previously we discussed the following players:

Minnesota Vikings RB Michael Bennett (http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=95405)

Today's discussion will be on Buffalo Bills RB Travis Henry. Henry is coming off of his second consecutive productive season and has established himself as the Bills workhorse. He continues to be plagued by fumbling woes however, having coughed the ball up 18 times over the last 2 years. That, combined with the presence of former Miami Hurricane Willis Mcgahee actually make Henry a bit riskier of a selection this year. Henry's stats for the last 3 years stats were as follows:

Year - - GP ATT YDS TD | REC YDS TD
2001 Buf 13 213 .729 . 4 | 22 179 0
2002 Buf 16 325 1438 13 | 43 309 1
2003 Buf 15 331 1356 10 | 28 158 1

CBS Sportsline has this to say about him:

Henry is one of the most underrated running backs in Fantasy Football. A 1,300-yard back the past two seasons, he is a bruising runner with good burst and a knack for the end zone. He will remain atop the Bills' depth chart despite the presence of Willis McGahee, who missed his entire rookie season as he recovered from major knee reconstruction. Owners might be wary of this situation and decrease Henry's value, but it's tough to pass on a player of his caliber despite McGahee's presence. Henry is still worth an early-round selection and should be considered a good No. 2 or solid No. 3 for owners.

Submitted for discussion ... Travis Henry.

(next up - Stephen Davis)

Seems alot of folks are almost writing Henry off because of McGahee. I'm not one of them. McGahee is an unproven commodity who still has not shown he has recovered from his catastrophic Orange Bowl injury of a couple of years ago. Henry on the other hand has proven himself to be the "go to guy" for the Bills offense and the fumbles actually reduced from 11 to 7 last year. IMO, Travis Henry is very draftable and is easilly an early 2nd rd pick in a 12 team league. I see no reason to believe that he will not duplicate last years numbers. Prediction: 1300 yards 12 TDs.

I'd wait until the 3rd or 4th round to pick Henry. After watching McGahee at Miami, I think that if his knee is 50% of what it was, he could spell Henry and take a lot of carries from him. Henry is a top running back, but McGahee has a larger range of skills, and if he is healthy, could be more useful. If you want to be a little risky with your second running back choice, take someone like Fred Taylor who, if healthy, could have 1,500 rushing and another 500-600 receiving, and a bucketload of touchdowns.

I got Henry in the mid-to-late 3rd round (27th overall) of one of my fantasy drafts. I just can't imagine that McGahee will get enough carries this season to warrant an argument that I shouldn't have drafted him in that situation I was in.

I'd wait until the 3rd or 4th round to pick Henry. After watching McGahee at Miami, I think that if his knee is 50% of what it was, he could spell Henry and take a lot of carries from him. Henry is a top running back, but McGahee has a larger range of skills, and if he is healthy, could be more useful. If you want to be a little risky with your second running back choice, take someone like Fred Taylor who, if healthy, could have 1,500 rushing and another 500-600 receiving, and a bucketload of touchdowns.

If his knee is 50% of what it was, that makes him a bust.

Henry is definately an interesting commodity. The Bills want to use a primarily RB based system AND they want Drew Bledsoe to release the ball more quickly. That means the same amount of carries as last year and more receptions. However, factor in McGahee and I am guessing that Henry will seem about 30% less touches than last season. I expect Henry to get around 1100 yards this season. But, it all hinges on the early season success of the team for Henry. If the Bills are in a playoff spot Henry will get more carries 80-85% of them, while going into the ******* will likely put both players on an almost equal rotation.

Henry is a definate question mark for the season. A 2nd round back who could be high risk/high reward.

High End: 1550 yards 15TDs + 300 yards receiving
Low End: 1050 yards 6TDs + 150 yards receiving.

Henry is a solid 2nd running back in any FF league.

I got Henry in the mid-to-late 3rd round (27th overall) of one of my fantasy drafts. I just can't imagine that McGahee will get enough carries this season to warrant an argument that I shouldn't have drafted him in that situation I was in.
Thats a great pick. Who'd you get with your other 2 top picks?

Thats a great pick. Who'd you get with your other 2 top picks?

Edgerrin James and Donovan McNabb.

Both semi-risky picks, because McAllister was still avaliable when I selected James, and McNabb was projected to go a bit later than when I selected him.

Well, appears your McNabb gamble paid off as you still snagged Henry. What other RB's were there when you picked McNabb?

How good will Buffalo's offense be next season?

Well, appears your McNabb gamble paid off as you still snagged Henry. What other RB's were there when you picked McNabb?

Well, here are the guys that went between my McNabb and Henry selections:

K. Barlow
T. Holt
M. Harrison
S. Davis
T. Owens
M. Vick
C. Johnson
R. Johnson
M. Hasselbeck
H. Ward

I figured that all the sure thing backs were taken...and if McNabb puts up the fantasy numbers he did in 2002, then things will be swell anyway.

I'd have passed on McNabb for a few of those guys I think (Harrison, Davis... )

How good will Buffalo's offense be next season?


As good as the offensive line is,which should improve greatly now that we have one of the,if not the best OL coach in the game.We also replaced "offsides every 3 players" Ruben Brown with Chris Villarial.


What makes Travis Henry a great back is that he can play injured.He wasn't 100% at any time besides week 1 last year,and yet he put up 1300 yards.He hurt his ribs in week 2,and then hurt them even more in week 3 and missed the next game against Philadelphia.It was a very severe injury,because Travis can play through immense pain.Later in the season Henry was playing with a broken leg and cracked ribs and yet totally embarassed some defenses.With an improved offensive line,a OC that actually knows how to use a goaline offense and a more focused Drew Bledsoe,I predict Henry's production will increase.McGahee will get some carries,but Henry is the guy in Buffalo right now.


So,something similiar to his 2002 campaign will be my prediction.

(G Man,he has cut down his fumbles a lot.He only lost 1 or 2 last season,and fumbled 5 times the whole season,so it showed he cut down on his fumbles.)

(G Man,he has cut down his fumbles a lot.He only lost 1 or 2 last season,and fumbled 5 times the whole season,so it showed he cut down on his fumbles.)
He fumbled 7 times, losing 3. But I agree with you though, like I said in my 2nd post ... he cut down significantly last year.

As a FF guy, I wouldn't put too much creed into him playing while injured. If Henry gets injured this season (As a Bills fan, I sure hope not), management will sit him and see what McGahee can do as the Premier Back.

I think Henry is a great #1 back for a FF team. He is all but a lock for 1200 yards and 10 scores. That is solid production. Not sure if I would take him in the 1st (I have a number of backs ahead of him, plus have to consider Culpepper, Moss and Harrison), but he is a no-brainer for me in the 2nd.

The threat of McGahee is vastly overstated IMO. Lets face facts. The guy had an utterly horrific knee injury. One that looked like a career ended (he blew out everything). Since then, he has not carried a football. When and if he does something on the field, he poses a threat. Even then, just making a return to the sport and displacing a workhorse like Henry are apples and oranges.

I think Henry is a great #1 back for a FF team. He is all but a lock for 1200 yards and 10 scores. That is solid production. Not sure if I would take him in the 1st (I have a number of backs ahead of him, plus have to consider Culpepper, Moss and Harrison), but he is a no-brainer for me in the 2nd.

The threat of McGahee is vastly overstated IMO. Lets face facts. The guy had an utterly horrific knee injury. One that looked like a career ended (he blew out everything). Since then, he has not carried a football. When and if he does something on the field, he poses a threat. Even then, just making a return to the sport and displacing a workhorse like Henry are apples and oranges.


I totally agree. I might even take Henry with my 1st pick in my keeper FFL team. Most RB's are alreay taken, and my guy just quit. So am forced to keep Holt and go RB in the 1st.

Not sure if I would take him in the 1st (I have a number of backs ahead of him, plus have to consider Culpepper, Moss and Harrison),
Hmmm ... you'd consider Culpepper, but not Manning? :dunno:

Henry is a helluva back BUT if you get him you better make sure you get McGahee also.

IMO the Bills are gonna want to see what McGahee brings to the table which is gonna limit Henry's value this year.



Just look at the numbers he has put up the past two years.......looks like a first rd selection to me.
McGahee though.....

Hmmm ... you'd consider Culpepper, but not Manning? :dunno:

Yes.

Rushing yards and TDs count for double passing yards and TDs in my league. Culpepper and Manning both have about the same production of TDs, but Culpepper gets about 1/4 to 1/3 of his on the ground and the equavalent of nearly 1000 extra passing years with his rushing. It moves him to the head of the class and the only QB in our league worth looking at in the 1st round.

QBs come cheap if you start only one. I rarely draft a QB before the 6th round. Last year, I drafted Green and Collins in the 9th+.

What are your thoughts on McNabb then, JCD?

Everyone seems to quickly forget that McNabb was right at or near the top in fantasy football during the 2002 season up until he got injured.

I think Henry is a great #1 back for a FF team. He is all but a lock for 1200 yards and 10 scores. That is solid production. Not sure if I would take him in the 1st (I have a number of backs ahead of him, plus have to consider Culpepper, Moss and Harrison), but he is a no-brainer for me in the 2nd.

The threat of McGahee is vastly overstated IMO. Lets face facts. The guy had an utterly horrific knee injury. One that looked like a career ended (he blew out everything). Since then, he has not carried a football. When and if he does something on the field, he poses a threat. Even then, just making a return to the sport and displacing a workhorse like Henry are apples and oranges.

Do you personally believe that McGahee can comeback from this injury? This year?

What are your thoughts on McNabb then, JCD?

Everyone seems to quickly forget that McNabb was right at or near the top in fantasy football during the 2002 season up until he got injured.

One of the best QBs out there. Both in FF and in real life. Have him in my top-3.

That said, I just don't think he has the upside to take in the first round. I would love to see him sitting there for me in late in the 3rd, but I can get a QB that is 80-85% as good as McNabb (FF-wise) late. In the 3rd, there are still elite WRs, RBs and Gonzalez sitting on the board. You have a tougher time finding a player 80-85% their quality late than you do a QB.

Only reason I consider Culpepper that high is because he has been money in the bank (never started a season and produced less than a 28 TD clip, a constant 450+ yard rusher), on an offensive juggernaut and has sky-high upside (one of the only QBs with a legit shot at 40 TDs). Even then, I would only take Culpepper if I picked 12th and my top 9 RBs plus Moss and Harrison were gone.

Do you personally believe that McGahee can comeback from this injury? This year?

I like the wait and see attitude. Dude showed some serious skills before, but that was one heck of an injury.

Look at Edgerrin James. He was arguably the best back in the NFL before he got hurt. Undoubtably in the top-3. The injury he suffered wasn't half as bad as McGahee. Edge still has not regained his dominace.

We do not even know what kind of NFL back McGahee was before he got hurt. He tore it up in college, but that is no guarntee of success. Thomas Jones tore it up too. McGahee played on a football powerhouse loaded with NFL talent. He did great, but how much of that success was due to his situation? When is the last time a Miami RB looked bad? While most turn out to be great pros, you still have an occasional James Jackson.

McGahee had as close to an amputation as you can get. That is tough for anybody to come back from. For a RB that relies on speed and cutting, it is a potential career ended. From the Bills perspective, you have a ton of money invested into winning now. You have a stud workhorse in Henry and an gigantic o-line. How often do you take your best offensive player off the field to give your injury rehabber play-time? If you want to win, you do it as little as possible.

When is the last time a Miami RB looked bad? .

Frank Gore and Jarret Payton weren't that great this past season.

I took Henry last year in my draft. He was a very big surprise for me and I was hoping to take him again this year. But he never made it back to me in the draft, went pretty early.

McGahee had as close to an amputation as you can get. That is tough for anybody to come back from. For a RB that relies on speed and cutting, it is a potential career ended. From the Bills perspective, you have a ton of money invested into winning now. You have a stud workhorse in Henry and an gigantic o-line. How often do you take your best offensive player off the field to give your injury rehabber play-time? If you want to win, you do it as little as possible.

That's what I think too. The main thing is to keep an eye on the team. IF they are a playoff team Henry is going to get almost all the carries. It will just depend more on Bledsoe and Lee Evens making the smooth transition, than anything else.