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		<title>HFBoards - By The Numbers</title>
		<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/</link>
		<description>Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.</description>
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		<lastBuildDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 15:25:02 GMT</lastBuildDate>
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			<title>HFBoards - By The Numbers</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/</link>
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			<title>Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of NHL Players</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355521&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 19:25:00 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>---Quote (Originally by schuckers)--- 
There is plenty of information like this that would be very useful.  In addition to your list, the degree to which the goalie is screened and the percentage of passes completed/tipped...</description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>schuckers</strong>
					(Post 64919607)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">There is plenty of information like this that would be very useful.  In addition to your list, the degree to which the goalie is screened and the percentage of passes completed/tipped would be a start.</div>
			
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</div>Just wanted to let you know Mr. Schuckers that I'm a huge fan. Your work on Thor and DIGR is awesome. I'm just a junior in highschool but your no doubt one of my role models (I'm planning on majoring in either statistics or Applied/computational Mathematics and Statistics and I want to work heavily in the area of Hockey analytics).</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355521</guid>
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			<title>NHL.com Play by Play data</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1429377&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 19:13:15 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>---Quote (Originally by almostawake)--- 
Yeah, that is the second step of the dataflow I outlined. You write a script that extracts the table data directly from the raw .html and stores/outputs it in whatever format you...</description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>almostawake</strong>
					(Post 66281401)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">Yeah, that is the second step of the dataflow I outlined. You write a script that extracts the table data directly from the raw .html and stores/outputs it in whatever format you like.</div>
			
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</div>is that a hard thing to learn (I'm only a junior in high school so I haven't really learned much when it comes to computer science and stuff like that)? I'd really like to learn how to do that, since it would allow me to have access to far more data for my research.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>All-Encompasing Defensive Metric?</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1402383&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 16:58:36 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[There has been some god work by two college professors: Brian Macdonald from West Point and Michael Schuckers from St Lawrence.  
 
I'd recommend looking at both their papers (warning: parts are difficult to understand), as...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>There has been some god work by two college professors: Brian Macdonald from West Point and Michael Schuckers from St Lawrence. <br />
<br />
I'd recommend looking at both their papers (warning: parts are difficult to understand), as both look at both offensive and defensive performance. Very good steps in the area of hockey analytics. <br />
<br />
Schuckers:  <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=10193" target="_blank">http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=10193</a><br />
<br />
Macdonald:<a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=2838" target="_blank">http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=2838</a></div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
			<guid isPermaLink="true">http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1402383</guid>
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			<title>Advanced Stats Debates</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1407185&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sun, 19 May 2013 16:00:31 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>---Quote (Originally by Dilettante)--- 
Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671 
 
Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it...</description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>Dilettante</strong>
					(Post 64405433)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon <a href="http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671" target="_blank">http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671</a><br />
<br />
Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?</div>
			
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</div>Score effects take hold. Teams trailing by more than two goals are more likely to take more frequent attempts<br />
<br />
or<br />
<br />
The Devils did outplay the Rangers handily. Just wasn't their day.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>GKJ</dc:creator>
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			<title>Power play shooting percentage: is it repeatable?</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1431867&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 18 May 2013 21:55:15 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>---Quote (Originally by overpass)--- 
Can you really expect a team to shoot as well if it stops focusing on shooting percentage and starts trying to maximize shot volume? Consider that all of the teams who generated the data...</description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>overpass</strong>
					(Post 66251885)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">Can you really expect a team to shoot as well if it stops focusing on shooting percentage and starts trying to maximize shot volume? Consider that all of the teams who generated the data you analyzed were probably focusing on increasing both their shooting percentage and their shot volume.</div>
			
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</div><br />
My point is not that team's should just throw pucks at the net as often as they can on the power play. Shot quality definitely exists.  But data shows that teams do not have that much control over their shooting percentage. <br />
<br />
 This means that team's should not bank on their power play performing just because their power play shooting percentage is really high the year before (I haven't yet looked at in season predicition, but I would probably say that the same concept applies). I don't quite know what is the best predictor of success from year to year on the power play  (that is my next study), but it certainly is not shooting percentage.  <br />
<br />
And while I haven't looked at individual players, its probably safe to assume that power play shooting percentage is very random on the individual level. If this were the case, then teams/general managers could use this to not trade/pick up players expecting X amount of power play goals if they had a very high power play shooting percentage the year before.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>Ideas for Future Studies</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1237731&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Sat, 18 May 2013 15:45:07 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[---Quote (Originally by tag0519)--- 
I'm not sure if this exists already but what would everyone think of a stat called - "Adjusted Plus/Minus"?  Seems that +/- has a lot to do with the team as well as the individual.  Lets...]]></description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>tag0519</strong>
					(Post 62658041)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">I'm not sure if this exists already but what would everyone think of a stat called - &quot;Adjusted Plus/Minus&quot;?  Seems that +/- has a lot to do with the team as well as the individual.  Lets face it - Stamkos and Tavares would have a better +/- if they were on Pitt or Chi.  It would be good to get an idea of a players &quot;real&quot; +/-.</div>
			
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</div>There is such a stat.  It compares a player's ESGF/GA ratio while he's on the ice vs. that of his team while he's off the ice.  It's one of the best studies done IMO:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=591548&amp;highlight=adjusted+plus" target="_blank">Adjusted Even Strength Plus-Minus</a></div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Czech Your Math</dc:creator>
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			<title>Probability of a First Round Pick = Top 6/4</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1298875&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 19:53:20 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[---Quote (Originally by MrCaptain)--- 
Another non-binary value you could use is average salary. This is essentially what GMs and agents conclude is the "worth" of a player. This would give a consistent measure (you won't be...]]></description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>MrCaptain</strong>
					(Post 66133309)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">Another non-binary value you could use is average salary. This is essentially what GMs and agents conclude is the &quot;worth&quot; of a player. This would give a consistent measure (you won't be comparing apples to oranges, points by forwards, minutes by defencemen, etc). I'm not going to argue that every player in the study is worth exactly what he's making, but hopefully this will be averaged out over the entire sample.<br />
<br />
Basically graph the average salary of every player picked first overall, second overall, etc.<br />
<br />
I'd love to see a study done like this for all rounds of the draft.  I think then you could say &quot;a first overall pick is worth on average a 6 million dollar player. A tenth overall pick is worth on average a 2 million dollar player. I'll trade you the 9th, 10th, and 11th, overall picks for your first overall&quot; :yo:</div>
			
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</div>This is a very neat idea. of course it would all have to be adjusted for  the salary cap at the time each contract was signed, but otherwise it hink this (and ice time) could work decently.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Grind</dc:creator>
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			<title>Easily accessible Career SH% data?</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1410223&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 03:15:27 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[---Quote (Originally by PavelDatsyuk)--- 
I have a self made excel spreadsheet with this for personal use but don't want to share it 
 
I will give you this chart to compare whatever players you want to league average though...]]></description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>PavelDatsyuk</strong>
					(Post 64524773)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">I have a self made excel spreadsheet with this for personal use but don't want to share it<br />
<br />
I will give you this chart to compare whatever players you want to league average though<br />
<br />
<a href="http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/shootinge.png/" target="_blank">http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/534/shootinge.png/</a><br />
<br />
X-axis is career games<br />
Y is obviously SH%</div>
			
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</div><br />
Really? Why won't you share your spread sheet. Purpose of Boards like these is to share data and ideas so that we can all gain a better understanding of this great game. Unless you work for an NHL franchise or something in data analysis (which I doubt since NHL franchises are still stuck in the stone age), not sure why you won't share your spread sheets.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>Does Blocking shots at a higher rate help win games?</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1425805&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 22:13:20 GMT</pubDate>
			<description><![CDATA[---Quote (Originally by Sixbladeknife)--- 
Very nice work! It is indeed very interesting that there's no correlation. Maybe blocking a lot of shots means that the ones getting through are a lot more dangerous? I know the...]]></description>
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					Originally Posted by <strong>Sixbladeknife</strong>
					(Post 66160839)
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				<div style="font-style:italic">Very nice work! It is indeed very interesting that there's no correlation. Maybe blocking a lot of shots means that the ones getting through are a lot more dangerous? I know the shot quality effect seems to be quite small in the studies I've seen, but off the top of my head I really can't come up with a better explanation.<br />
<br />
If you have the time and effort, you could try fooling around with team SV% and see if a negative correlation emerges.</div>
			
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</div><br />
I have similar suspicions. I'll let you know what  I find.</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>Scoring rate difference between 5-on-4 and 4-on-3 PP?</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1420607&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 21:03:19 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>Any accurate conclusions will be hard to find because of the lack of 4 on 3 chances in an NHL season. While there are a lot of power plays at 5 on 4, the lack of 4 on 3 power plays will likely limit the truth we can pull...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>Any accurate conclusions will be hard to find because of the lack of 4 on 3 chances in an NHL season. While there are a lot of power plays at 5 on 4, the lack of 4 on 3 power plays will likely limit the truth we can pull from any data analysis</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>Corsi events per goal</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1426769&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 06:15:58 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>quick update, my last post was not very useful because I forgot to adjust for save percentage. When adjusting for save percentage (basically finding new goals for and against based off the league average save percentage),...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>quick update, my last post was not very useful because I forgot to adjust for save percentage. When adjusting for save percentage (basically finding new goals for and against based off the league average save percentage), the stat becomes Corsi for per goals for adjusted and Corsi against per goals against adjusted. It took me a bit to realize this is just a measure of how many blocked and missed shots a team lets up and takes per actual shot they let up and take. <br />
<br />
Now is this valuable, who knows. Hopefully I will figure that out in the next few days (finishing up AP exams in school so can't find time to research this week). <br />
<br />
Let me know if you want me to look at anything with these numbers. <br />
<br />
Cheers!</div>

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			<category domain="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=241">By The Numbers</category>
			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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			<title>Non-traditional metrics: PDO</title>
			<link>http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1240933&amp;goto=newpost</link>
			<pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2013 06:11:23 GMT</pubDate>
			<description>and as previous posters have stated, PDO also is a better revealer of luck at small sample sizes. PDO over the first 15 games of a season will tell us more about how lucky a teams has been compared to PDO after 70 games. The...</description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div>and as previous posters have stated, PDO also is a better revealer of luck at small sample sizes. PDO over the first 15 games of a season will tell us more about how lucky a teams has been compared to PDO after 70 games. The larger the sample size, the more truth we can see in numbers like save percentage, thus the less luck we can determine from PDO value.</div>

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			<dc:creator>Cunneen</dc:creator>
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