HFBoards - By The Numbers http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/ Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before. en Thu, 23 May 2013 23:36:38 GMT vBulletin 60 http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/images/misc/rss.jpg HFBoards - By The Numbers http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/ Is there a stat for adj. save percentage that weighs scoring chances more heavily? http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1400643&goto=newpost Thu, 23 May 2013 21:29:03 GMT
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Farkas (Post 65966685)
Taco, when you get time, I wouldn't mind hearing your take on this if it's of interest to you...
Sorry for the delay in response; I was in Ireland for eleven days.

The notion of evaluating goaltenders on a benchmark shot distribution is an interesting one, and something that's been tried out to a lesser degree in other articles - in particular, I've seen many analyses that rely upon weighting all goaltenders' ESSV, PKSV and PPSV by the same proportion of situations.

I've done something similar (as have others) where one "risk adjusts" each shot faced by a goaltender. In this fashion, instead of molding a goaltender's shot distribution to a league norm, you evaluate a goaltender based upon league-normed expectations. So, for instance, if a goaltender faces a shot that (historically) has a 20% chance of going into the net, he gets credit for 0.2 goals prevented (if he stops it) and gets credit for -0.8 goals prevented (if he doesn't).

Ultimately, both of these types of models are only going to be as good as the RTSS data that feeds into it. Not all wrist shots from location X are the same (and even this assumes that each scorer accurately categorizes shot type and location), and once you start distinguishing between "Brett Hull" and "Chris Dingman", you run into sample size considerations.

Accepting this, the math behind what Michael did appears sound, and it's an interesting way of viewing the problem. ]]> By The Numbers Taco MacArthur http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1400643 NHL.com Play by Play data http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1429377&goto=newpost Thu, 23 May 2013 04:31:49 GMT
Quote:
Originally Posted by 66871 (Post 66447067)
I would be interested in working on this. I am pretty decent in pho scripting and have done some work extracting sports data from natural language sources.

Unfortunately I'm in the middle of moving and in taking a few

But I would be willing to do two things:

If you send me a sample file, I'll provide some guidance on getting started and perhaps even a seed script so you can learn by example.

2) this fall if you still need help. I would be able to dive in a bit deeper.
Hey could I email you (seems easier to communicate that way rather than through this hockey board). My email is pcunneen19@gmail.com If you could help me out in anyway that'd be great. ]]> By The Numbers Cunneen http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1429377 Scoring rate difference between 5-on-4 and 4-on-3 PP? http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1420607&goto=newpost Wed, 22 May 2013 22:57:08 GMT One of my most recent posts in this sub forum links to a paper that gives scoring rates for every personnel situation.

I'm in my phone so it would be bit of a pain for me to find then paste etc. but search my posts in this sub forum and you will find it. ]]> By The Numbers 66871 http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1420607 Total Hockey Rating (THoR): A comprehensive statistical rating of NHL Players http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355521&goto=newpost Wed, 22 May 2013 19:25:01 GMT I really look forward to this being a great thing that works very well and isn't a bit subjective and prone to human error and that all of the statistics are there, including the 'non obvious ones' like say, time on ice spent in front of the goalie. Doesn't seem like it's the 'be all end all' to hockey analytics yet, but I hope it gets there. ]]> By The Numbers Lilina http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1355521 All-Encompasing Defensive Metric? http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1402383&goto=newpost Sun, 19 May 2013 16:58:36 GMT There has been some god work by two college professors: Brian Macdonald from West Point and Michael Schuckers from St Lawrence.

I'd recommend looking at both their papers (warning: parts are difficult to understand), as both look at both offensive and defensive performance. Very good steps in the area of hockey analytics.

Schuckers: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=10193

Macdonald:http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=2838 ]]> By The Numbers Cunneen http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1402383 Advanced Stats Debates http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1407185&goto=newpost Sun, 19 May 2013 16:00:31 GMT ---Quote (Originally by Dilettante)--- Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671 Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dilettante (Post 64405433)
Regarding fenwick/corsi stats, i just looked them up for the rangers/devils game this afternoon http://timeonice.com/shots1213.php?gamenumber=20671

Judging by fenwick/corsi alone it looks like the devils outplayed the rangers, but the rangers actually won the game pretty handily 4-1. Am I interpreting this wrong and, if so, how should these results be interpreted?
Score effects take hold. Teams trailing by more than two goals are more likely to take more frequent attempts

or

The Devils did outplay the Rangers handily. Just wasn't their day. ]]> By The Numbers GKJ http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1407185