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-   -   Who will the Habs realistically dislodge in the Eastern top 8 to secure a PO spot? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1027987)

Born in 1909 11-12-2011 11:42 AM

Who will the Habs realistically dislodge in the Eastern top 8 to secure a PO spot?
 
The season is already roughly 20% over...

The Eastern top 8 playoff spots are currently as follows:

1. Pittsburg
2. Toronto
3. Washington
4. NY Rangers
5. Buffalo
6. Philly
7. Florida
8. Tampa Bay

If Montreal actually does manage to make it to the playoffs this year (in a dogfight with the Devils, Boston, etc.), then which of these current top 8 teams can realistically be dislodged from their current playoff position in order to make room for the Habs?

... or do you predict that Montreal will simply miss the playoffs this year?

Its true that its a long season and that the future can be hard to predict...

but go ahead anyway :)

pine* 11-12-2011 11:43 AM

Toronto

KingKovy 11-12-2011 11:44 AM

toronto and florida will be out

CoupeStanley 11-12-2011 11:50 AM

I don't think the Rangers, Flyers, Panthers or the Maple Leafs are stronger than us. At least the healty version of us.

Theosis 11-12-2011 11:50 AM

As much as I don't like the Leafs, I think they'll actually make the playoffs this year. Florida on the other hand I don't see making the playoffs.

JLP 11-12-2011 11:55 AM

I hope we make it and win the cup but realistically the playoffs are unlikely this year. We will need about 95 points, that's going to require playing at close to .600 for the remainder of the season. A good forecast program here currently shows a two-to-one probability that we won't make it.

sukimono 11-12-2011 11:56 AM

Toronto, i don't think they will make the playoffs

JGRB 11-12-2011 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JLP (Post 39323065)
I hope we make it and win the cup but playoffs are unlikely this year. We will need about 95 points, that's going to require playing at close to .600 for the remainder of the season. A good forecast program here currently shows a two-to-one probability that we won't make it.

Depends how healthy we can stay. We are historically a .625% team with Markov in the line up, so it's not impossible. I'd agree it's looking improbable at this point however.

Hackett 11-12-2011 11:59 AM

Florida and Toronto are the obvious candidates here. Funny enough, these are also the two teams with the longest playoff droughts in the league right now.

But you also gotta take a look at who else is not in the picture. You have to figure that the bruins will get in.
Also, keep and eye on the rangers. They are playing well above themselves and I expect them to fall back down eventually.

sukimono 11-12-2011 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JLP (Post 39323065)
a two-to-one probability that we won't make it.

And Edmonton with a 76.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, oh dear.

ChemiseBleuHonnete 11-12-2011 12:00 PM

IMO, only Florida will get kicked out of the playoffs. But Boston will make it, not us. Boston has a +13 goal differential, second to only Washington in the east. Realistically, they'll make it way before we make it.

JGRB 11-12-2011 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by franchise player (Post 39323239)
IMO, only Florida will get kicked out of the playoffs. But Boston will make it, not us. Boston has a +13 goal differential, second to only Washington in the east. Realistically, they'll make it way before we make it.

Look at Toronto's goal differential, the goals allowed in particular.

Without Kessel's lighting fast start (and he's very streaky, in history) they are probably .500 at best.

ChemiseBleuHonnete 11-12-2011 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JGRB (Post 39323379)
Look at Toronto's goal differential, the goals allowed in particular.

Without Kessel's lighting fast start (and he's very streaky, in history) they are probably .500 at best.

Their #1 goalie got injured and they had to play Gustavsson...

hockeyfan2k11 11-12-2011 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoupeStanley (Post 39322911)
I don't think the Rangers, Flyers, Panthers or the Maple Leafs are stronger than us. At least the healty version of us.

And that's the biggest problem. When is this team ever relatively healthy?

I think Florida, Toronto, Rangers and even Tampa can fall out of the PO's. I just don't know if the Habs are the team to do it. Hope I'm wrong, though. Is fighting for the last playoff spot for a 4th straight year better than getting a lottery pick? I'd usually say yes, but I'm not really sure right now.

Corncob 11-12-2011 12:19 PM

The only teams in the East that I can't imagine realistically missing the playoffs are Washington and Pittsburgh.

ChemiseBleuHonnete 11-12-2011 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockeyfan2k11 (Post 39323707)
And that's the biggest problem. When is this team ever relatively healthy?

I think Florida, Toronto, Rangers and even Tampa can fall out of the PO's. I just don't know if the Habs are the team to do it. Hope I'm wrong, though. Is fighting for the last playoff spot for a 4th straight year better than getting a lottery pick? I'd usually say yes, but I'm not really sure right now.

I've been thinking the same this year. I'm so tired of my team fighting for the last playoff spot every year. It's getting boring. They have no drive in getting better and that's what losers are made of.

hockeyfan2k11 11-12-2011 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by franchise player (Post 39323931)
I've been thinking the same this year. I'm so tired of my team fighting for the last playoff spot every year. It's getting boring. They have no drive in getting better and that's what losers are made of.

Well, I think they DO try to get better. I just don't think they know how to. In addition, they have a lot of big money tied into the core of their team. Kinda hard to improve in key areas when you have Cam, Gomez, Markov, Pleks, Gionta all making $5M+.

I don't think I'd mind seeing a fire sale. I can live with 3 years of no playoffs

JackieChan 11-12-2011 12:31 PM

If we finish below FLA, there is something terribly wrong with this team AND the Panthers will have significantly overachieved.

I don't think that will happen though.

Serious HABit 11-12-2011 12:31 PM

we miss the PO

JGRB 11-12-2011 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by franchise player (Post 39323499)
Their #1 goalie got injured and they had to play Gustavsson...

Kessel has Gretzky like stats for the first 10 games.

It's unsustainable and the difference between Gutso/Scrivens and Reimer is not as big as our Leaf counterparts would have you believe.

donghabs98 11-12-2011 12:34 PM

i hope for toronto

but i don't see FLA making the playoffs

Monctonscout 11-12-2011 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born in 1909 (Post 39322645)
The season is already roughly 20% over...

The Eastern top 8 playoff spots are currently as follows:

1. Pittsburg
2. Toronto
3. Washington
4. NY Rangers
5. Buffalo
6. Philly
7. Florida
8. Tampa Bay

If Montreal actually does manage to make it to the playoffs this year (in a dogfight with the Devils, Boston, etc.), then which of these current top 8 teams can realistically be dislodged from their current playoff position in order to make room for the Habs?

... or do you predict that Montreal will simply miss the playoffs this year?

Its true that its a long season and that the future can be hard to predict...

but go ahead anyway :)

I think Pittsburgh, Washington, Buffalo and Phillie are locks for the playoffs. Boston and Montreal would be #5-6 with TB NYR NJ Car Tor etc battling for the last two spots.

Born in 1909 11-12-2011 12:45 PM

If a team is going to miss the playoffs, they might as well miss it big in order to secure a top draft spot.

Its really a terrible system to give the greatest rewards to the most inept organizations. :shakehead

Its looking like the NY Isles will get a top pick again. :help:

The Doors 11-12-2011 12:53 PM

They'll make it. Weather the storm and play .500 until Markov returns. Then the team will gradually play a bit better and probably finish 10-12 games above. Keep in mind the streakiness of our snipers and Price's ability to steal games and you figure there will be a couple of 4-5 game win streaks along the way. Key thing is beating other teams in division when we can.

Toronto will probably shoot themselves in the foot and go cold, Buffalo is a decent bet to make it, Ottawa is not a playoff team, and Boston - well, if the CH beat Boston every time they play them, they may struggle passing the Habs.

optimus2861 11-12-2011 12:56 PM

The Leafs can't sustain the pace they're at; their shooting percentage is inhuman. Without Reimer their goaltending is a total crapshoot. They will in all likelihood fall off the pace drastically.

Quote:

We are historically a .625% team with Markov in the line up
Trouble is, after so much time away, we have no idea what Markov is going to be capable of or if he'll even be close to the player that he was. I wouldn't count on any significant improvement in the team's play when he first comes back. (If he ever does come back that is...)


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