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BigFatCat999 12-12-2011 01:32 PM

What the stats say
 
I finally have some time to just sit down and look at the basic stats of the Preds and I'm asking myself why is this a middling team? (Other than the fact they are following the classic Predators season bell curve that drives and frustrates Preds fans).

offensively the team is 16th in the league for goals for with 2.66

PP is T for 3rd in the league with 20.4.

Defensively the team is 15th with 2.69

PK is 11th with 84.1

For the Preds, the offensive stats are up. They could use a LITTLE bit more oomph but not really too bad. Where the problem is the defense. PK is ok but frankly the defense is underachieving compared to the standard the Preds usually have. The calls for a SOB defenseman seem more justified than the calls for a a goal scoring forward.

If anything, the team could use an upgrade on SK. This could simply be a change in SK's production to Clown bet levels. OR a trade for a goal scoring forward.

I think this team needs a small tweek not a full overhaul, again, and the tweek, I feel needs to come defensively. To me, I would love to switch cube with an SOB like player.

I just wonder if Colorado would trade SOB to Nashville once they realize they are out of the playoff hunt?

Seth Lake 12-12-2011 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 (Post 40832427)
I finally have some time to just sit down and look at the basic stats of the Preds and I'm asking myself why is this a middling team? (Other than the fact they are following the classic Predators season bell curve that drives and frustrates Preds fans).

offensively the team is 16th in the league for goals for with 2.66

PP is T for 3rd in the league with 20.4.

Defensively the team is 15th with 2.69

PK is 11th with 84.1

For the Preds, the offensive stats are up. They could use a LITTLE bit more oomph but not really too bad. Where the problem is the defense. PK is ok but frankly the defense is underachieving compared to the standard the Preds usually have. The calls for a SOB defenseman seem more justified than the calls for a a goal scoring forward.

If anything, the team could use an upgrade on SK. This could simply be a change in SK's production to Clown bet levels. OR a trade for a goal scoring forward.

I think this team needs a small tweek not a full overhaul, again, and the tweek, I feel needs to come defensively. To me, I would love to switch cube with an SOB like player.

I just wonder if Colorado would trade SOB to Nashville once they realize they are out of the playoff hunt?

While I think the greatest off-season miscue was losing O'Brien, I don't think it was a case of not signing him, but rather not replacing him. The Shane O'Brien era in Nashville is over and I doubt we see another chapter added to it.

I too believe though that the most immediate impact could be had by adding a steady veteran defenseman to the lineup. We have plenty of puck-moving skilled types young and old on the blueline, what we need is a good-sized, physical d-man with some grit and ability to clear the crease.

The Preds are doing a good enough job manufacturing scoring opportunities right now. They DEFINITELY need to bury some more of those chances, but I believe with an upgrade to the back-end that we will see less time spent chasing pucks around in our zone and more opportunities to create chances at the other...

token grinder 12-12-2011 04:41 PM

i wuld love to add andy sutton, beauchamin, grossman, or hannan

BigFatCat999 12-12-2011 07:51 PM

I'm wondering what happens with Blum and to see how that changes the defense dynamic

Roman Yoshi 12-12-2011 09:36 PM

Hell no to Sutton. Have you seen how much he has been suspended this season?

I think if you upgrade at the forward position and get a legit offensive threat, you will see better sustained pressure and less "holding the stick too tight." Weber and Suter will feel more confident in the team, and the rookies will know that if they make a mistake, then we can make up for it on the offensive end.

BigFatCat999 12-12-2011 09:52 PM

I'm not too sure about that. Offensively this is better than last year's team. Smith and Wilson are making sure of that. I just think we have too much youth on the back end pairings.

glenngineer 12-12-2011 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by token grinder (Post 40840317)
i wuld love to add andy sutton, beauchamin, grossman, or hannan

I'd go Beauchamin or Robidas. I know Dallas isn't out of it by any stretch of the imagination but he'd give us a legit 3 defensemen much like the Avs and Ducks used to do when winning their Cups.

I also think the answer may be within. I know I clamored for Weber and Suter to be put together years ago but it may be time for them to be split up. Pair Weber/Josi and Suter/Klein. It gives us more balance in those two pairings. Josi is a good enough puck mover and Weber's veteran presence will stabilize his game for sure. Suter is the PMD Klein needs to be paired with and they are both sound defensively. This allows us to not get caught as much without Weber/Suter out there against the other teams top lines, especially on the road. We'd pretty much have Weber or Suter on the ice for close to 48 minutes a night total. Pair any of Hillen/Bouillion/Blum for the third pairing depending on who is playing best and then shelter their minutes.

If not, go after a vet defenseman with some snarl to his game. Robidas would be perfect because you can put him out there in any situation much like Weber or Suter. He's also signed to a decent deal for the next few years.

Trying to think of who else might be out there of note and no one is coming to mind. Colin White would've been a nice pick up for the third pairing in the offseason but he's out in SJ.

Iron Duke 12-12-2011 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glenngineer (Post 40855757)
I'd go Beauchamin or Robidas. I know Dallas isn't out of it by any stretch of the imagination but he'd give us a legit 3 defensemen much like the Avs and Ducks used to do when winning their Cups.

I also think the answer may be within. I know I clamored for Weber and Suter to be put together years ago but it may be time for them to be split up. Pair Weber/Josi and Suter/Klein. It gives us more balance in those two pairings. Josi is a good enough puck mover and Weber's veteran presence will stabilize his game for sure. Suter is the PMD Klein needs to be paired with and they are both sound defensively. This allows us to not get caught as much without Weber/Suter out there against the other teams top lines, especially on the road. We'd pretty much have Weber or Suter on the ice for close to 48 minutes a night total. Pair any of Hillen/Bouillion/Blum for the third pairing depending on who is playing best and then shelter their minutes.

If not, go after a vet defenseman with some snarl to his game. Robidas would be perfect because you can put him out there in any situation much like Weber or Suter. He's also signed to a decent deal for the next few years.

Trying to think of who else might be out there of note and no one is coming to mind. Colin White would've been a nice pick up for the third pairing in the offseason but he's out in SJ.

I think Robidas is wishful thinking. He's still probably their best defender and has a great cap hit through '13-'14. Dallas has no real incentive to trade him away, even if they were out of it.

I'll also be real surprised if Beauchemin doesn't sign an extension between now and the trade deadline.

glenngineer 12-12-2011 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 (Post 40855443)
I'm not too sure about that. Offensively this is better than last year's team. Smith and Wilson are making sure of that. I just think we have too much youth on the back end pairings.

What youth do you speak of? Blum and Josi were barely together. We've had either one of them in the lineup at times but rarely together. Laakso was with Hillen. Hillen is a vet. Not a grizzled one but he's been around a while.

I'd say we're missing a bruiser more than anything. SOB wasn't perfect but he played the body and separated people from the puck. Other than Weber, we really don't have that much size back there and that has hurt more than the youth.

Legionnaire11 12-12-2011 10:31 PM

Hannan is a guy i've always wanted on the Preds. His salary has always been a bit too high though.

theoneandonly 12-12-2011 10:41 PM

What Nashville needs is Cody Franson, he an Blum played really well together since the Vancouver Giant days. Getting rid of Franson was one of the worst moves this terrible Nashville leadership. Time to clean house and get a new look on this team.

101st_fan 12-12-2011 11:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theoneandonly (Post 40857515)
What Nashville needs is Cody Franson, he an Blum played really well together since the Vancouver Giant days. Getting rid of Franson was one of the worst moves this terrible Nashville leadership. Time to clean house and get a new look on this team.

:shakehead

Franson? A guy who underperformed here and is underperforming with Toronto? Blum got a much needed trip to Milwaukee to work on his game.

Hannan wouldn't be a bad choice for a physical d-man. Robidas isn't leaving Dallas any time soon. The team could use a stay home d-man. SOB wasn't the right player but tried to play the style we are missing in our second pairing.

The shocking stat ... Nashville 11th in fighting majors so far. 5 fewer than all of last season.

kypredsfan 12-13-2011 12:41 AM

I'd take Franson back if he'd learn to use that 6'4" frame to use.

token grinder 12-13-2011 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joetimo (Post 40854681)
Hell no to Sutton. Have you seen how much he has been suspended this season?

.

yep. and usually for crushing a guy who has wronged one of the kids in edmonton. I am more than happy to have him for that reason alone. good locker room guy too.

WartracePred 12-13-2011 02:55 AM

Does anyone remember how many stupid, ill-timed penalties SOB took last year??? How many bone-headed incidents that landed him in the box while our opponents climbed back into the game by scoring on the PP???

He kept the Ducks in the series knowing they were automatic in their PP and still gave them opportunity after opportunity. His lack of discipline was not a good fit for a team that prides itself on mental toughness. He wasn't and still isn't a Preds-type player. We were warned that he took bad penalties in Vancouver. He made poor decisions in Nashville. And I'll bet he is still making dumb decisions for the Avs.

He's leading the Avs in PIMs at 54. Compared to Tootoo (45), McGratten (39), both fighters and over twice as many as Weber (24), SOB is not what the Preds need.

kypredsfan 12-13-2011 03:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WartracePred (Post 40864931)
Does anyone remember how many stupid, ill-timed penalties SOB took last year??? How many bone-headed incidents that landed him in the box while our opponents climbed back into the game by scoring on the PP???

He kept the Ducks in the series knowing they were automatic in their PP and still gave them opportunity after opportunity. His lack of discipline was not a good fit for a team that prides itself on mental toughness. He wasn't and still isn't a Preds-type player. We were warned that he took bad penalties in Vancouver. He made poor decisions in Nashville. And I'll bet he is still making dumb decisions for the Avs.

He's leading the Avs in PIMs at 54. Compared to Tootoo (45), McGratten (39), both fighters and over twice as many as Weber (24), SOB is not what the Preds need.

We'll just have to agree to disagree then. I loved him and his crease clearing abilities. :nod:

worstfaceoffmanever 12-13-2011 05:42 AM

This team desperately needs a guy like Hamhuis or Beauchemin or Robidas, a low-maintenance guy who can gobble up minutes with solid positional play and only the occasional mistake. Klein has shown that he can't be relied on to be that kind of player for us, but we frankly cannot allow Bouillon to keep getting as much time as he does, or play Hillen on a nightly basis period, and expect to go anywhere.

Robidas isn't going to be available, though, because Dallas are leading the Pacific, and even if they fall out of that spot, they'll still be right in the thick of the playoff race and won't be inclined to trade away their TOI leader. We might have to offer something really good to get Beauchemin out of Anaheim, even on an expiring contract, but he's the guy I really want us to go after in free agency, the kind of player that Trotz wants Bouillon to be. We can play him while Blum and Ellis and Josi and Ekholm all finish cooking over the next 2-3 years.

token grinder 12-13-2011 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WartracePred (Post 40864931)
Does anyone remember how many stupid, ill-timed penalties SOB took last year??? How many bone-headed incidents that landed him in the box while our opponents climbed back into the game by scoring on the PP???

He kept the Ducks in the series knowing they were automatic in their PP and still gave them opportunity after opportunity. His lack of discipline was not a good fit for a team that prides itself on mental toughness. He wasn't and still isn't a Preds-type player. We were warned that he took bad penalties in Vancouver. He made poor decisions in Nashville. And I'll bet he is still making dumb decisions for the Avs.

He's leading the Avs in PIMs at 54. Compared to Tootoo (45), McGratten (39), both fighters and over twice as many as Weber (24), SOB is not what the Preds need.

I am not going to argue about his tendency to take dumb penalties...but in fairness, he kept that to a minimum by his standards and was solid for us. And as bad as he was in the Anaheim series about penalties, he was good vs Vancouver.

101st_fan 12-13-2011 09:47 AM

The team could use a stay home d-man with size and a physical presence. SOB isn't the right guy. There is too much focus on the nameplate and not enough on the skillset needed.

utmfisher19 12-13-2011 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WartracePred (Post 40864931)
Does anyone remember how many stupid, ill-timed penalties SOB took last year??? How many bone-headed incidents that landed him in the box while our opponents climbed back into the game by scoring on the PP???

He kept the Ducks in the series knowing they were automatic in their PP and still gave them opportunity after opportunity. His lack of discipline was not a good fit for a team that prides itself on mental toughness. He wasn't and still isn't a Preds-type player. We were warned that he took bad penalties in Vancouver. He made poor decisions in Nashville. And I'll bet he is still making dumb decisions for the Avs.

He's leading the Avs in PIMs at 54. Compared to Tootoo (45), McGratten (39), both fighters and over twice as many as Weber (24), SOB is not what the Preds need.

You do realize that physical dmen and power forwards walk a fine-line, right? Aka, they are EXPECTED to take penalties for being overly physical. That's why it is a COMPLIMENT to power forwards to have a 50 point & 100 PIM year...

Every team needs a few of those guys to "lay down the law" in the crease, in the corners digging for pucks, etc. We badly miss SOB's physicality in the slot and at the boards trying to win the loose pucks.

Cashville 12-13-2011 11:16 AM

I said in another thread that I miss SOB. Forget defense, we only have two tough players on this team: Weber and Tootoo. McGrattan doesn't count, he gets like 3 shifts and is out there to pair up with Parros etc once a game. Beauch from ANA would be perfect but too expensive. Doubt they would do an intra-division trade, but I'd love to snag Fedor Tyutin from CBJ. Solid defenseman, more positional, ok scoring, and a middle ground cap hit between Beauch and SOB.

Pred303 12-16-2011 11:20 AM

Combined stats of each of the lines we rolled out last night:

Kostitsyn-fisher-hornqvist... 18 goals, 39 points
Smith-legwand-erat... 21 goals, 64 points
Spaling-Wilson-tootoo... 17 goals, 42 points

triggrman 12-16-2011 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by utmfisher19 (Post 40869803)
You do realize that physical dmen and power forwards walk a fine-line, right? Aka, they are EXPECTED to take penalties for being overly physical. That's why it is a COMPLIMENT to power forwards to have a 50 point & 100 PIM year...

Every team needs a few of those guys to "lay down the law" in the crease, in the corners digging for pucks, etc. We badly miss SOB's physicality in the slot and at the boards trying to win the loose pucks.

This is why I choose to be more of a finesse type defenseman and stay away from the physical play in front of the net.. Somehow though, I keep ending up in the box, the refs always call the wrong number I guess.

David Singleton 12-16-2011 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pred303 (Post 41032839)
Combined stats of each of the lines we rolled out last night:

Kostitsyn-fisher-hornqvist... 18 goals, 39 points
Smith-legwand-erat... 21 goals, 64 points
Spaling-Wilson-tootoo... 17 goals, 42 points

Interesting, but given the various line combinations to this point, I'm not sure what to take from that.

However, here is a pretty interesting overview compiled by me with data from DobberHockey (and about to be featured in my next blog):

There have been 163 points (goals and assists) scored by a Predator forward in all situations this year.

Here the total points scored while a given forward has been on the ice:
  1. Craig Smith, 74pts (45% of 163)
  2. Colin Wilson, 74pts (45%)
  3. David Legwand, 63pts (39%)
  4. Martin Erat, 47pts (29%)
  5. Mike Fisher, 43pts (26%)
  6. Patric Hornqvist, 38pts (23%)
  7. Sergei Kostitsyn, 37pts (23%)
  8. Jordin Tootoo, 33pts (20%)
  9. Nick Spaling, 26pts (16%)
  10. Matt Halischuck, 23pts (14%)
  11. Jerred Smithson, 14pts (9%)

Same stat for defensemen:
  1. Shea Weber, 48pts (72%)
  2. Ryan Suter, 44pts (66%)
  3. Jonathon Blum, 10pts (15%)
  4. Kevin Klein, 9pts (13%)
  5. Jack Hillen, 8pts (12%)
  6. Francis Bouillon, 8pts (12%)
  7. Roman Josi, 5pts (7%)
  8. Teemu Laakso, 2pts (3%)


This team has always been a team built upon scoring by committee. That said, they are also a team that's extremely dependent on creating offense from the blueline. Given the dependence this team has on Suter and Weber, if one of the two leave it will usher a complete change of the team's identity (assuming another elite defenseman isn't coming back).

To me, it looks like there are two big reasons this team is constantly being outshot (and some insight on why they can still win those games).

They are constantly outshot in part because the physicality (among other things) on the blueline drops significantly after Weber and Suter (who are on the ice together most of the time).

Perhaps more importantly, given that Nashville's offense starts from its blueline, there really isn't any offense coming from that blueline outside of Weber and Suter. If you are constantly in your defensive zone for slightly more than half a game as opposed to creating offense, you're going to give up significantly more shots, scoring chances, etc. Here's where it shows a kernel of truth to the adage that "the best defense is a good offense". This is where the potential of a Blum, Josi, or Ellis could really help this team.

A Beauchemin-type of player (especially with his expiring contract since Blum/Josi/Elllis should make that move next year at the latest) might make a great deal of sense as a rental this year- if Nashville thought they could contend. It also gives Blum/Josi/Ellis another year to grow, although it's possible they can get to that level this year over time.

My feeling is that adding a Beauchemin-type would definitely push them into the playoffs, but truly contending for a Cup probably still needs that dynamic forward to help counter the increased lack of room that comes with the playoffs.

Definite pressure building on David Poile to make a long term decision regarding Suter and Weber. The impact on losing either will be huge.

The dominance that Weber and Suter have is what's enabling Nashville to storm back in these games. Put those two out there at the same time with some combination from Nashville's "top six" and they have a chance.

101st_fan 12-16-2011 01:47 PM

I'm quite sure that Poile and the owners have made a decision on what they'd like to do with Suter and Weber. The issue is now how to finance and structure the deal in a way that the players accept. I'd be shocked if the deals weren't pretty heavily front loaded with signing bonuses paid over the first few years.


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