Mid-Season Reflection and Second Half Predictions
Now that 41 games are on the books, I thought it might be neat to have a thread where we look back on our preseason predictions and expectations and see how things panned out; also, might as well make predictions for the second half.
My Preseason Expectations:
1) Offense would struggle with all the turnover, losing Richards and Carter, and all the rookies. Expected JVR to continue his inconsistency.
--Offense has been fine, what with that Giroux line. Especially with the way Hartnell has stepped up. Jagr has exceeded all expectations I had for him, and Read has been great. JVR has been just bad, whether it be injuries or what. I didn't expect him to be such a non factor. Briere's long cold streak has been a disappointment as well.
2) Defense would be notably worse, due to the loss of various defensively skilled players.
--Oh God help us all, it's incredibly terrible. The loss of Pronger only made things worse, but even when he was playing the team was looking pretty bad in their own end. This team just does not have the personnel to play well defensively anymore, and that bleeding process probably began when Gagne and Lappy were no more.
3) Goaltending would be really good.
--Some may remember that my problem with Bryz was his incredibly long and expensive contract, which seemed pointless with Bob on the team; not his skill. I thought he'd be a great goaltender here. My expectation was that with the worsened defense and offense, we'd need that great goaltending to steal games. Instead, it's been the opposite. Pure offense has won almost all games, with goalies taking maybe 3 or 4.
4) Read and Couturier: I thought neither one would be NHL ready. I thought Couturier just wouldn't be able to hang around at such a young age. I thought Read was being overhyped and would be nothing special.
I thought that with all the rookies and new faces, the team would struggle out the gate with chemistry issues, gel and be good, and then slide away as Timonen and Pronger got tired and the rookies wore down. I predicted a 6-8 finish, while possibly missing the playoffs...mostly because of defensive struggles and inconsistent offense.
So...for the second half, I'm not revising that much. I'm still not convinced that the key guys on our 4th line will be able to keep it up for the rest of our season. Read has been fantastic, and a big part of the team's success at times. But I'm still not convinced he can keep it up all season, and probably won't be until April. I expect offense to drop off, and the way other teams have shut down the top line the last few games is disturbing. If goaltending and defense don't greatly improve and the offense stutters, this team could run into a lot of problems. So...I still stand by 6-8 finish, possibly missing playoffs. I expect a second round exit from playoffs is the best case scenario, unfortunately. I predict Briere is going to step it up soon.
So, what were your expectations and how have they matched up with the season? Be honest! What do you predict for the second half?
For the second half : i predict at least 1 shut out.
I thought and was wrong about:
1) No way Talbot could play well enough to justify his contract.
2) JVR would be a top two scorer and carry over from the playoffs.
3) Bryz would bring stability in goal.
1) Read tails off point wise and Couturier ramps it up on offense.
2) First round involves a goalie carousel again and Bob plays well and nearly squeaks the team through, but they lose and Bryz rage reaches an all-time high.
Hckyplayer8's '11/'12 Season Expectations Mid Season Review
Mid Season Surprises
-Matt Read success
-Scott Hartnell success
-Courts on the team and likely a future top line C
-Talbot leadership skills
Mid Season Keys to Success
-Trade for a top Dman- This is a MUST. I would love to drop the bum and stick with BOB but that obviously isn't going to happen. So with Prongs gone, this is an absolute must. We need another top D to back Kimmo up. Mr. Ironman is getting old and can not do it all by himself. Mez has been mediocre this year and Carle is LOL. We need Weber or big nasty guy that is Prongs like (not giant pansy Chara like). Despite Harts success, wouldn't mind seeing him go. Package him, one of the young kids and a draft pick together.
-Goaltender battle has to be figured out- We can not ride the goalie roulette wheel into the playoffs. I would go with BOB and ride out his growing pains but we all know that isn't going to happen. Looks like we need to buff up our D to patch the HUMONGOUS SHORTSIDE (thanks to BucksCO for that laugh) and just hope The BUM becomes a little less BUM like. Worst case, he fails and I still get to crack BUM jokes.....or was that best case? Best case, he actually performs a quarter of what the contract is worth.
-ROO. Enough said.
-Danny B the seasoned Vet.
-Kimmo continues to be Mr. Ironman
-JVR breaks out and becomes a force to recon with
-Shemale stays healthy
- Trading Mike Richards
- Acquiring Bryz
-Trading Carter to make room for the young kids.
-Trading Carbomb and acquiring Rinaldo and Talbot.
I had pretty much the same expectations as Beef. I think most of the guys on the team have done a really good job so far. In the second half I expect more from JvR and Brière. Except for Bryzgalov those two really are the only ones that haven't quite delivered as expected or better. I was hoping that JvR would begin to contribute all over the ice this year, that he would be a solid player even in games where he can't get going offensively, but so far he just disappears in those games. That Brière sucks/doesn't give a **** defensively is a little too late to try to change perhaps, but it would be nice if JvR could begin to develop both a little more of a two-way game, as well as play a little more bruising style. Hopefully his injury troubles really held him back and he's ready to take off.
Lilja sucks, but I was expecting that.
For the second half I expect Talbot to cool off offensively, but I think he'll continue to be very valuable with his defensive work and grit so all is good there.
I can see Couturier getting ready to go on a little tear if we can keep our forwards healthy. Rinaldo is one of the pleasant surprises for me so far, he has shown a lot of composure, but if it is both him and Zolnierczyk on the same line it won't produce too much. I kind of wish that they would send Rinaldo and Zolnierczyk down to the Phantoms and tell them to work on their defense, the +/- stat is what it is, but seeing those two being -6 and -10 (yesterday was the first time Scrabbles was a + player I believe...) while Couturier is a +9 is quite telling. Their GAON/60 is somewhere around 4 or 5 while Couturier is below 2 as well. I'd like to see Wellwood given a chance when we can roll four lines pretty much evenly. Even if the other teams focus on shutting down our top line (who have been great, but they probably won't double their offensive numbers in the second half, at least not Hartnell), that depth should allow us to continue scoring a fair amount of goals (especially if JvR and Brière wakes up).
I don't expect Matt Read to end up with 25 goals and 50 points, but he's been a lot better than I thought he would be. He might be entering a little slump now, but that contract looks really good so far.
I hope we can improve on team d for the second half. If Bryzgalov could start playing like a true starter that would help of course, but we also need to see better effort from most of our forwards here. Timonen hasn't been quite as good lately, but for the first 30 games or so he wasn't too far away from being included in Norris talk imo. Meszaros could be better defensively, but six goals from him so far without much time on the PP is really good. Coburn is still a bit up and down, but he's having a few more good games this year than the last couple of seasons I think. Carle may have some spectacular giveaways every once in a while, and it's not strong defensive play that is his biggest asset, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for the relatively strong play of Bourdon.
i predict as we get closer to the playoffs (baring a stud d trade) that the other teams step up and expose and make quick work of our relience on to many rookies..
like wolves to a carcass..
Bryz continues to be totaly hit/miss (mostly miss)
Jagr wears out, in the home stretch.
Leighton comes in and saves the season (ok that last one is a pipe dream of mine, hahah)...
Well... barring the biggest collapse since the 30 team NHL started (NY in 2001-02, not making playoffs after holding 12 point lead after 41 games by my calculations), we are already in the playoffs effectively.
I doubt we will win the Division. Bar a NY collapse. So think we will be 4th-5th seed.
Points since lockout for position.
4th. Mean: 103.33. High: 110. Low:99
5th. Mean: 99.83. High: 105. Low: 94
6th. Mean: 95.5. High: 100. Low: 91
7th. Mean: 93.17. High: 96. Low: 88
8th. Mean: 92. High: 94. Low:88
9th. Mean: 90.67. High: 93. Low: 87
10th. Mean: 88.17. High: 91. Low: 83
Our pace is for 108 points (1.32 ppg) at the moment. If this pace is kept.
4th. Philly, 108
5th. Ottawa 97-98
6th. Toronto 96
7th. New Jersey 94-95
8th. Pittsburgh 92
9th. Washington 90
10th. Winnipeg 88
If we drop in the second half of the season to Pittsburgh pace (1.12ppg) which is average 8th seed pace, we would still have 100 points at the end of the year, which in best case scenario puts us 4th (2 out of 6 years this would get you 4th), worst case scenario puts us 6th (only once has 6th got more than 97 points) and in general gets us 5th place.
If we drop to Buffalo pace we end up with about 94 points, which is always in the playoffs.
If we drop in the second half of the season to Montreal, Tampa Bay or Islanders pace (about 0.93ppg) which gets you 11-12th at best over a year, we end with 92 points, which is half the time 8th, half the time 9th, never 10th.
So we can be a losing team in the second half of the year and still make the playoffs, we need 40 points from 41 games to be guaranteed. Or 36-38 points to have half a chance.
So 23-14-4 gets us 4th more often than not, never less than 5th.
So 21-16-4 gets us 4th if very lucky, 5th mostly, 6th if very unlucky.
So 19-18-4 gets us at best 6th, 7th if very unlucky.
So 18-19-4 gets us 7th mainly, worst case 8th.
So 17-20-4 gets us in the playoffs unless everything else goes against us!
I know it is silly, but the only teams in Flyers history that were bad enough to not get 40 points from 41 (which guarantees playoffs) in terms of PPG are:
06-07, 91-92, 90-91, 89-90, 71-72, 69-70, 68-69. (and 91-92 and 90-91 could have.)
Personally, I see worse case scenario being 19-18-4, which gets us 96 points, 6th or higher about 90% of the time (7th if extremely unlucky), and best case being 26-11-4, which gets us 1st-2nd if vvvvvvvvvvery lucky, most of the time 4th seed.
I was adamantly against Couturier being on the roster. Call me Nostradamus. :shakehead I also thought Bryzgalov would stabilize the goaltending. :shakehead:shakehead I didn't think Giroux would step up to be such a star, that Jagr would be so effective, that Hartnell would refind his scoring touch, that Read would earn his roster spot, that Briere would disappear offensively, or that Carle would be solid without Pronger. The Flyers' competitiveness is a pleasant surprise, particularly their offensive outburst. D I was, though, concerned about team defense, after Richards, Carter et al were sent away, which was about the only thing I got right.
So you can take my second-half predictions to the bank, baby!
Bryzgalov will improve to 2.5 GAA .905 SV%, but Flyer scoring will drop significantly. Giroux - Jagr - Hartnell line will go into a slump. Flyers will end up in 7th spot for the playoffs, first-round exit against the Rangers.
Giroux = A+
Jagr - A
Hartnell - A
Read - B+
Briere - B-
Simmonds - B+
Vorecek - B+
JVR - C+
Schenn - N/A
Couturier - A
Talbot - B+
Rinaldo - B
Harry Z - B
Timonen - A+
Pronger - N/A :(
Mezsaros - B
Coburn - C+
Carle - B-
Bourdon - C+
Lilja - C
Bryz - D+
Bob - B
Overall - B+
There have been some disappointments the first half, but overall the team is doing much better than I thought theyd be. If Bryz finds his way, Homer brings in someone to solidify the D, and the offense keeps up...I see good things. This team has the depth, good mix of players, and the balance of young and old that could make it a scary team in the post season if they get hot.
I expect Bryzgalov to get better in the 2nd half, and to steal of couple of games. I still have a lot of faith in him, he's always been a great goaltender. I also expect some kind of breakout from Schenn, if he doesn't get injured again, the guy will be an important player by the end of this year.
If we can stay away from injuries, and that Bryzgalov begins to shine, we can easily contend for the cup.
Giroux = A+
Jagr - A
Hartnell - A+
Read - B+
Briere - C-
Simmonds - B
Vorecek - B+
JVR - C
Couturier - A
Talbot - A
Rinaldo - C
Harry Z - B+
Timonen - A-
Mezsaros - C
Coburn - C
Carle - C+
Bourdon - C
Lilja - D-
Bryz - F
Bob - B-
Overall - B-
Predictions: Bryzgalov never turns it around. There have been zero signs that he is anywhere close to being what was bought. Without Pronger the team is built to rely on good goaltending, as the defense and defensive abilities of the forwards is currently mediocre to subpar. The offense isn't outrageous enough to make up for that deficiency against the top 4-5 teams in the eastern conference.
The second half will be more of the same from the first half - streaks that wow you and then streaks when the offense isn't able to bury 4+ goals every night, that frustrate you.
The team will head into the offseason trying to revamp the defense and hoping bryzgalov can be not good but just average. At this point, that would be a win. If it doesnt happen next season, he will be exiled in some fashion.
The bryzgalov issue is huge for this team, because the structure of this team will cause them to weaken the roster to bolster the defense. If he doesnt turn it around, the team in a year or two will probably find itself with a stacked defense and poor offense as Holmgren yet again overreacts to correct his initial mistakes
Team finishes in the 4-5 seed, and loses in round 1 or 2.
Only prediction about the rest of the season is playoffs. Too hard to predict into the playoffs at this point. Injuries, slumps, hot streaks, etc could change everything. If Bryz gets his act together though, I will predict a deep run. If he continues his inconsistency and overall poor play, it's gonna be tough.
I was wrong:
Bryz would be great
MAB would be borderline between AHL and ECHL
Shelly would be in the A
Harry Z wouldn't make the team
Couts would be tearing up the OHL
I was right:
up and down play (young factor)
Scoring wouldn't be the issue
Read would play a regular shift (I was way under on his skill level though)
We'd be better on the road
Jagr would still have lots left in the tank
Prediction for the rest of the year:
A lot more of the same: up and down play, questionable goaltending, and we'll finish in the 4th to 7th spot. We'll MAYBE win a round of playoffs and that's it. And quite frankly, with the youth and draft picks we have I'm OK with that.
I am surprised there is so little talk about Brayden Schenn. Since he's come back from his concussion, I think he has been very, very good for this team - even before that, he was showing flashes and wasn't a liability on the ice. Individual performances I predict for the second half:
Schenn - Will surely have his ups and downs, but I think he could end with a .7 PPG or something along those lines. I love his game and hope he's sticking around for the long haul.
Read/Talbot - Will both cool off offensively (Talbot moreso than Read) but will remain valuable players at both ends of the ice. I could see Read being dangled during the deadline.
Couturier - If he's not there already, will reach untouchable status and continue to improve his offensive game. I've never been so impressed with an 18 year-old defensively, and he's been producing pretty well on the 4th line. HUGE hopes for him in the future.
Briere - Will still slump according to his career numbers, but will, like always, be up for the playoffs.
JVR - Will continue to struggle. Whether it's his hip, his mind, etc., he won't produce like we were expecting at the beginning of the year. Could be the centerpiece of a deadline deal for a big d-man to replace Prongs.
Voracek - I can easily see him going on a tear. I'm a big fan of his game and really, REALLY hope we don't trade him.
Giroux/Hartnell/Jagr - Will continue to produce, albeit at a possibly lower rate. Still see Giroux taking the Art Ross #HOMER
Kimmo - Will continue being the heart and soul of the D.
Coburn/Carle/MAB - Will continue to frustrate us with inconsistency.
Mez - I see him having a big improvement in the second half. Maybe close to a return to form last year, although I personally don't think he's been horrible this year.
Lilja - No comment.
Bob - Will continue to be very solid and could spark a big debate for the offseason.
Bryz - Will struggle, but I can see him picking it up at the end of the year. Will start the playoffs in the #1 spot, but who knows how long he will retain it.
Overall: I expect us to finish #4/#5 in the East, win in round 1, lose in round 2. I would say the team has definitely exceeded my expectations so far (I thought they would be #6-8 or possibly out of the playoffs).
in the second half one of three things will happen:
a. the young fellows will catch fire and the Flyers will make a nice run
b. the young fellows will hit their respective walls and the Flyers will collapse
c. no change, exciting team, good future, sloppy, inconsistent, high GAA, first or second round exit
Thought signing Jagr was a mistake.
Thought Bryz would solve our never ending goaltending problems.
Thought MAB would never crack the NHL.
Thought Read wouldn't make the team.
Thought Couturier wouldn't make the team.
Thought goal scoring would be our downfall.
Thought defense would be our strong point.
Hartnell would have a good year (although didn't think it would be THIS good)
Bob would continue his success from last season.
Pronger wouldn't play a whole season (:cry:)
Briere's production would begin to slow due to his age.
2nd half prediction:
Bryz's play will improve while the offense as a whole will slow down. Without making any major moves at the deadline, I see us finishing between 4-6 and maybe getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs.
I personally also predict JVR will pick up the pace.
That Coots will score more and impress more than he already has.
Giroux will miss 100 points by the smallest of margins. (sorry, just a gut feeling!)
Schenn will impress everyone a lot (he has been dynamite in last 4-5 games.)
Coburns consistency will improve.
Simmonds will break Milan Lucic's jaw. ;)
Bob will impress more.
Bryz will improve, but too about .905%
One of Mez or Carle will start to struggle.
Gus will impress.
Lilja gets waived. (Pleeeeeeease.)
We trade Jody Shelley and a 2nd for Ryan Suter :sarcasm: (had to throw the 2nd in, this is Homer after all.)
Nope... I was wrong, only get $100,000 relief if sent down in first year.
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