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-   -   Salary Cap: Do the Rangers have a 2-year window to win the Cup? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1083845)

Crease 01-18-2012 10:53 AM

Do the Rangers have a 2-year window to win the Cup?
 
Things are going to get very interesting for the New York Rangers after the 2012-2013 hockey season. But let's hold off on that for now and look at what's to come this offseason:

2012 RFA
Wolski
Del Zotto
Stralman
Bickel

2012 UFA
Fedotenko
Christensen
Prust
Mitchell
Eminger
Woywitka
Biron

I can see the Rangers retaining Del Zotto, Stralman, Prust, Mitchell, and Biron on one-way contracts. Pay raises can be handled easily with the money coming off the books from Wolski, Christensen, and Fedotenko. Mitchell takes Feds spot in the lineup and Kreider can slot in on an ELC.

Easy.

But 2013 is where things get kind of iffy:

2013 RFA
Anisimov
Stepan
Hagelin
McDonagh
Sauer

The Rangers have 0 unrestricted free agents coming off the books that off-season. It's going to be incredibly tough to resign all of these guys. That said, does the window start to close on this team after 2013? I see next year's team being the best equipped to make a run at the Cup.

MSG the place to be* 01-18-2012 10:56 AM

Any year you make the playoffs you have a one year window. Any year you don't make the playoffs the window is shut.

Ask Tampa about windows. Ask the Sharks/Canucks/Capitals about windows.

rangers4ever2007 01-18-2012 11:00 AM

stepan and mcdonagh are the only "musts" in the 2013 class (though hagelin is playing on that level)

anisimov and sauer can be "replaced"

bobbop 01-18-2012 11:03 AM

I would say that given the depth of the young core and the players they have coming, the Rangers are looking at an 8-10 year window to win the Cup.

Crease 01-18-2012 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobbop (Post 42689083)
I would say that given the depth of the young core and the players they have coming, the Rangers are looking at an 8-10 year window to win the Cup.

Who's coming? Kreider? JT Miller? McIlrith?

Not trying to be pessimistic, but the better the prospects pan out, the harder it is to retain all the talent in a salary capped league.

With literally no one coming off the books in 2 years, the Rangers are going to have to make some tough decisions.

Chalfdiggity3 01-18-2012 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crease (Post 42689293)
Who's coming? Kreider? JT Miller? McIlrith?

Not trying to be pessimistic, but the better the prospects pan out, the harder it is to retain all the talent in a salary capped league.

With literally no one coming off the books in 2 years, the Rangers are going to have to make some tough decisions.

We have tons of cap space coming off the books in the next two years.. We know we arent resigning Feds, EC, Avery, and Wolski.. That right there is $7-8mm then lets not forget about Drury's capspace that will be relieved at the end of the season which i believe is another $2-3mm in capspace.. In the end of this year we will have apprx 9-11mm in capspace.

Plus with the likes of Krieder, Thomas, Miller, McIlrath, Erixon, Hagelin and so on pushing through the ranks, it will make other players expendable in trades. WHile having tons of capspace with their entry level deals in place.

Vitto79 01-18-2012 11:17 AM

remember when Richards was rumored to come to the Rangers some fans said don't do it !!!!.......now we are talking the cup already, hilarious

I said to start this yr they have a 3 yr window...........not because of cap but because all of their young players should anyways be mature and freaking awesome 2yrs from now............seems like some have grown faster than I thought they would

Good thing is more youth is coming with Erixon, McIlrath on D and guys like Kreider , Miller, Thomas upfront

I say this team can win it in the next 3 yrs and after that I have to see where the cap is at and who was lost becasue of it

NYRKindms 01-18-2012 11:27 AM

The current CBA is set to expire on September 15, 2012

With the possibilities of buyout exemptions etc tough to say what the business side will look like

Giglio NYR15 01-18-2012 12:26 PM

Its pretty the simple...Its the Henrik window. Our window is as long as hes in net for us. 5-8 years. He will be 30 in march.

Crease 01-18-2012 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giglio NYR15 (Post 42693427)
Its pretty the simple...Its the Henrik window. Our window is as long as hes in net for us. 5-8 years. He will be 30 in march.

I think that's too simple.

Giglio NYR15 01-18-2012 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crease (Post 42693543)
I think that's too simple.

You think we have any shot winning the cup if hes not in net? It all expires and drops significantly once he is gone.

Crease 01-18-2012 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giglio NYR15 (Post 42693677)
You think we have any shot winning the cup if hes not in net? It all expires and drops significantly once he is gone.

Conversely, do you think we automatically have a shot of winning the Cup while he's in net? I don't necessarily think so, and that's the point I was trying to make when I responded to your initial post.

Captain Monglobster 01-18-2012 12:40 PM

Anytime I think about potential cap problems for the Rangers - I think about the Penguins. If they can keep Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Letang, Staal, Orpik, etc. then we will have no problem keeping our own versions of each player.

mrjimmyg89 01-18-2012 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Giglio NYR15 (Post 42693427)
Its pretty the simple...Its the Henrik window. Our window is as long as hes in net for us. 5-8 years. He will be 30 in march.

I'd say this is pretty much so true, with the only difference being the defense has to be at least at this level or higher. Staal is up after 4 years, while Cally, Dubi, Gabby, Hank, and Girardi are up in 3 seasons. Those guys as of right now are hardly replaceable, but what will the team look like up front and on defense then? Will McIlrath be good enough to replace Girardi? Will Miller and Kreider be able to replace Cally and Dubi's production? In my opinion, Cally and Hank are the one's likely to be brought back. I also can see Hank being brought back on a lesser deal as he got his big payday and might want to have the money be used on other players. I could see Gabby being let go based on age and what his contract demands in terms of years are. That money can be used for Girardi and Dubi.

I think short term, the next 2 seasons are accurate. After that, the window becomes a little unclear, but I can see it being 5-8

Also, 2013 should go something like this if no big trade is made:

Anisimov: 3rd contract, possibly eating UFA seasons. If he becomes a 45-50 point player, he'll make between 3-3.5. If not, he'll be 2.25-2.75

Stepan: 2nd contract, no UFA years eaten. He's going to be the exception to Sather's 2nd contracts. I can see long term with him. 4-5 years, 3-3.5 million per. Possibly longer if he keeps progressing like he is.

Hagelin: 2nd contract, no UFA years. He'll fall into Cally and Dubi 2nd contracts if he keeps his pace. 1.5-2 million per over 2 years

McDonagh: 2nd contract, no UFA years eaten. I can see him being like Stepan. Sather locking him up long term. Staal or Girardi type contract. 4-5 years 3-3.5 million. Possibly longer if he becomes a top pairing player.

Sauer: 3rd contract, possible UFA years eaten. I can see this being the one guy who gets a contract up until his UFA year to save on money. 2 MAYBE 3 years, 2-2.5 million

Kel Varnsen 01-18-2012 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYRKindms (Post 42690425)
The current CBA is set to expire on September 15, 2012

With the possibilities of buyout exemptions etc tough to say what the business side will look like

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSG the place to be (Post 42688753)
Any year you make the playoffs you have a one year window. Any year you don't make the playoffs the window is shut.

Ask Tampa about windows. Ask the Sharks/Canucks/Capitals about windows.

Yeah lets just be happy with the present and the general future since we're a young team. And we're doing it the right way.

IBleedNYRBlue 01-18-2012 01:16 PM

A lot of the guys you mentioned and who are going to up for new contracts are replaceable.

The only guys out of those that i'd say are ABSOLUTE MUSTS to resign, are Stepan, Del Zotto, McDonagh, and Biron. Of course you want to retain Prust, Hags (i'd maybe include him as a must), AA, and one of Stralman/Eminger, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if we did indeed lose them.

Ollie Queen 01-18-2012 01:43 PM

I think you're probably over-pricing guys when you think things are going to get too tight to keep most everyone together. Del Zotto will be due for a pretty nice raise this summer, perhaps, but he's an RFA and Sather likes to play hardball/always gets his RFAs to sign good contracts. Del Zotto's cap hit is currently 1.087. If he gets more than 3M as an RFA, I'll be surprised. Prust will not get more than 1.5M (only 700k more than his current cap hit) and I don't see Stralman or Mitchell as must re-signs, but even if they are re-upped, it won't be for much of a raise, if any. Keep in mind, when you're talking about the money coming off the books to re-sign players, you don't only take off the expiring contracts that won't be brought back; you have to take off their previous contracts of the players you're re-signing as well.

Say we re-sign MDZ at 3M, Prust at 1.5M, Bickel at 1M, Stralman at 1.25M and Mitchell at 1M. That's only 3M in total more than they're currently making. Yes, I understand MDZ is a young puck mover who is putting up impressive numbers, but look at the first RFA deal Dubinsky got or the deal AA got. Sather is going to play hardball and get him to sign a reasonable deal for his first RFA contract. He is going to get 2-3 years to prove he will perform this way consistently before cashing in.

So after giving out between 3-4M in total raises this off-season, assuming we bring back all of the mentioned players. We should still be looking at ~6-7Mish cap space the following off-season, assuming things don't change with a new CBA (which is, perhaps, a stupid assumption and this whole conversation could be rendered moot depending on what happens). McDonagh and Stepan will be must re-signs. If AA hasn't been moved, he should be considered a must as well. Hagelin isn't going to be such an important piece that he MUST be re-signed, but he's also never going to be the kind of player that demands a huge salary.

McD is already making 1.3M. He could get a pretty big raise, but as an RFA, I doubt he gets more than Girardi or Staal, which means he gets a 2.5M raise, maximum, and I have a hard time seeing him getting 3.8M just yet as he and Stepan are bound to get the screws put to them like all of our other RFAs. Even so, say Stepan gets 2 years at 3.8 and so does McD. It's 5.4M in total raises. Hagelin makes 875k right now and I doubt he'll be making more than 1.5M on his next contract, as an RFA and AA will likely not get more than 2.5M on his next deal unless he breaks out a big season next year. That's an additional 1.5M in raises.

It would be tight and it could turn out that not everyone can be accommodated, but even with generous numbers for Stepan and McD, it's doable. Sauer is unlikely to get a big raise, but he is the likely odd-man out if someone has to be moved or overlooked. It's highly unlikely, but there is the minute possibility of the cap going up and even though that's probably not going to be the case, the next CBA will almost certainly be forced to restructure things to accommodate the numerous large, guaranteed contracts that already are in place throughout the league. Whether that means allowing teams to protect one or two players who don't count against the cap or having a "cap discount" for homegrown players (players you drafted and developed only count for 75% of their cap hit, etc.) there will likely be some kind of relief mechanism in place in the new CBA.

Either way, I don't think it will be as difficult to keep this core together as you seem to. Sather does excellent with his RFA re-signings and we have a lot of leverage with some of these young players reaching their first ever RFA summer. Additionally, this is a team that is going to be a legit contender and I can see homegrown guys taking discounts, albeit marginal ones, to keep the squad together and chase a cup. I'm not talking about any kind of crazy loyalty discount, but I can see guys sacrificing some change here and there to keep the pieces in place. In the worst case scenario, the new CBA would at least offer amnesty buyouts, in which case, funny as it sounds, I would probably just part ways with Richards' large contract (as he'll only be older by that point) and keep everything else intact.

Hockey Team 01-18-2012 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MSG the place to be (Post 42688753)
Any year you make the playoffs you have a one year window. Any year you don't make the playoffs the window is shut.

Ask Tampa about windows. Ask the Sharks/Canucks/Capitals about windows.

I agree with the second half of your statement. Obviously if you miss the playoffs you're not winning anything.

But just making the playoffs doesn't mean you really have a shot at the cup.

This year we're definitely contenders though. Barring season ending injuries, you cannot say that the team sitting in 1st place after the season's more then half finished is not a contender.

Rangerfan4life90 01-18-2012 01:49 PM

No way would richards get amnestied after one year. That would be bad karma at its finest. He hasn't played at a redden type level even.

blue425 01-18-2012 01:56 PM

Don't panic kids..enjoy the ride while it lasts. It has been a long time coming.

A lot can happen in three seasons. Guys we think are irreplaceable now may become
very expendable down the road.

I never though the following would come out of my "mouth" so to speak but here it is:

I believe in Sather. He will do right by this team and it's players.

In the meantime..no worries.

JayQueensNY88* 01-18-2012 02:01 PM

2012 RFA
Wolski-WALK
Del Zotto-Keep,2-3 year contract
Stralman-WALK
Bickel-Keep but mainly depends on how he progresses through this year.if anything 1 year deal and take it from there.
2012 UFA
Fedotenko-Keep, 1-2 year contract.
Christensen-WALK
Prust-KEEP,3 year contract
Mitchell-Walk
Eminger-UNDECIDED
Woywitka-Walk
Biron-Keep, 2 years

2013 RFA
Anisimov-Keep,Depending on next years performance1-2 year deal
Stepan-KEEP! Lock this kid up long term4-5 years
Hagelin-Keep,3 year deal
McDonagh-Keep ,Lockup 5-6 years
Sauer-keep 1-2 years depending on health

Ollie Queen 01-18-2012 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rangerfan4life90 (Post 42697435)
No way would richards get amnestied after one year. That would be bad karma at its finest. He hasn't played at a redden type level even.

Typically, I'd agree, but it's not even about his performance. It's about, who else would you amnesty if the cap drops? He has the second largest salary, is the oldest and you're not going to buyout Cally, Girardi, Staal, Lundqvist. No one on a smaller contract provides relief. It comes down to Gabby and Richards. It's a completely hypothetical scenario, mind you, but who else would make sense?

ECL 01-18-2012 02:06 PM

LMMFAO about any discussion of Richards getting bought out. Give me a break. Richards, while slumping, has taken a metric ton of pressure off the top line. With two lines to look out for, the defense of the other team is spread out.

Rangerfan4life90 01-18-2012 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MPF24 (Post 42697979)
Typically, I'd agree, but it's not even about his performance. It's about, who else would you amnesty if the cap drops? He has the second largest salary, is the oldest and you're not going to buyout Cally, Girardi, Staal, Lundqvist. No one on a smaller contract provides relief. It comes down to Gabby and Richards. It's a completely
hypothetical scenario, mind you, but who else would make sense?

Maybe we won't have to use it on anybody (amnesting Redden makes no sense now as he doesn't prevent us from making moves). How many years can you keep the amnesty clause? I think in the nba you can have it in your back pocket for years.

Ollie Queen 01-18-2012 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan. (Post 42698121)
LMMFAO about any discussion of Richards getting bought out. Give me a break. Richards, while slumping, has taken a metric ton of pressure off the top line. With two lines to look out for, the defense of the other team is spread out.

Nobody is talking about actually buying Richards out. Read the thread. All that was mentioned (by me) was that if the cap goes down in the next CBA and there is an amnesty buyout window to accommodate teams that would be over the new cap/unable to keep their team intact going forward that Richards would, while undeserving, be one of the only people it would make sense to use it on because of the size of his cap hit. It has nothing to do with production and his slumping or performance wasn't even mentioned. LMFAO at people who think they can read one sentence in an entire thread and pop off with smart-ass comments.


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