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-   -   Draft position vs Playoffs: your cut off point (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1097855)

Frankenheimer 02-04-2012 09:50 AM

Draft position vs Playoffs: your cut off point
 
My question is really simple. There's been a lot of talk about the value of draft position compared to: eking into the playoffs, losing early and ending up with mid-round pick.

So where is your cut off point? If the choice was making the playoffs this year or getting say the 10th pick, which would you take? What about the 11th or 12th? At what point would you say its no longer worth it and making the playoffs is better?

Seems to me that only the 1-4 draft positions bring enough guarantee of future success that it would be worth making that exchange. Otherwise, I'd rather watch a round or two of playoff hockey with the small hope of a final.

Or do 5-10 bring that much more of an advantage? Don't forget this scenario assumes making it into the playoffs and therefore playing substantially better than what we're seeing these days (we would be playing at the level of last year or the year before, in which, all things considered, we had a percentage chance of making the finals, especially two years ago).

The calculus of age is important. I probably have 40 more years of Habs hockey to live for -- will a 5-10 draft pick substantially increase my chances of seeing another Cup above actually making the playoffs even in the 8th position??

I don't see this team finishing in the bottom 5 barring more injuries. They will finish in that 5-10 range and that's where the calculus gets interesting.

I guess I'm not ready to stop cheering and investing emotion in the team unless someone can statistically demonstrate that 5-10 draft order picks are a better long term play than actually making the playoffs.

*Have not done any actual calculating. Just seems numbers 4 and above have more guaranteed success than anything below.

WeThreeKings 02-04-2012 09:52 AM

6th seed or higher in the play-offs is cool with me. If we're 7-8 I'd rather drop as deep as we can.

Contender not pretender.

AllanMTL46 02-04-2012 09:55 AM

Playoffs. If we have a chance to make the playoffs, go for it. My cut off point will come when we're statistically eliminated from the playoffs.

Richiebottles 02-04-2012 09:55 AM

No finishing 9-10-11 Business. We had a terrible season and we deserve to draft a super star.

Dwight 02-04-2012 10:06 AM

6 and above. A top 5 pick is (usually) a pretty big deal, and not something worth giving up.

Young Gun 02-04-2012 10:08 AM

For me there is no "guarantee of future success" no matter where you draft, 1-4 or
20th or a 7th rounder. Drafting is a roll of the dice, even if the odds are stacked in your favour.
Play every game for the 2 points and let the chips fall where they may. A well rounded team can come from trades and free agents.

Mathradio 02-04-2012 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Young Gun (Post 43563123)
For me there is no "guarantee of future success" no matter where you draft, 1-4 or
20th or a 7th rounder. Drafting is a roll of the dice, even if the odds are stacked in your favour.
Play every game for the 2 points and let the chips fall where they may. A well rounded team can come from trades and free agents.

There may be no guarantee but GMs of bottom-feeder teams act as though a high pick IS a guarantee.

ChemiseBleuHonnete 02-04-2012 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simon Lacroix (Post 43562703)
No finishing 9-10-11 Business. We had a terrible season and we deserve to draft a super star.

this. It would be such a shame if they were to trade for a few assets to make a playoff push. That would actually be disgusting.

Beakermania* 02-04-2012 11:55 AM

Playoffs, even in 8th spot is better than 1st overall draft pick. Remember the 2010 run... that was a lot of fun and the Oilers nearly won the cup from 8th spot. Anyone can win, as long as you are in.

That said, I see this team as done, there is no chance for playoffs, so I'm all aboard the tank mentality.

Captain Smurf 02-04-2012 12:02 PM

8 is a decent number. It really depends how deep the top of the draft is any one year is. This year I'd say 9 or 10, depending on who goes off the board.

VL55 02-04-2012 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllanMTL46 (Post 43562683)
My cut off point will come when we're statistically eliminated from the playoffs.

Dude, we are. We have been for a while! Mr. 'Bit' called it January 21st when we bottomed at 5% odds. It didn't improve since then.

Now we need roughly 45 points in 31 games. That means we need to get 1.451 points per game from this point. The Rangers so far have managed 1.408 and the Red Wings 1.365.

In other words, we need to be substantially better in those last 31 games than the best of the leagues have been so far.

I call that statistically eliminated.

It's weird. These days I cheer both when the Canadiens score (out of conditionning) and get excited when they get scored against (thinking about the draft). It's win-win, in a twisted way.

Lions999 02-04-2012 12:53 PM

Forget playoffs we need deal with 4 or 5 teams to make it impossible. We need to finish in the bottom 5 and also try to snag another 1st round pick for the draft. Get rid of some dead wood on the team and pick some new blood. Then if we can get Grig in the draft we can have a very interesting team next year.

Blind Gardien 02-04-2012 01:13 PM

There's no draft position more valuable than making the playoffs. At least, not this year. I could hear the argument in a year when there is a Mario Lemieux or Sidney Crosby available at #1, guys who are clearly headed for generational superstar status. But for Grigorenko or Yakupov and just a cast of solid-ish players/potential busts behind them? No, there is no draft position this year that would be better for us than making the playoffs would have been.

All-Star 02-04-2012 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mathradio (Post 43563173)
There may be no guarantee but GMs of bottom-feeder teams act as though a high pick IS a guarantee.

Of course they do, they obviously suck at everything else, so hoping high picks turn into a stars is the only thing that can potentially save their jobs.


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