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Mathletic 02-11-2012 03:10 PM

Mathletics February Mock Draft
 
So, after posting my rankings here

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1104229

I thought I'd do a mock draft for the 2012 draft.

Draft order is based upon sports club stats' rankings

feel free to ask any questions

Round 1

#1 :cbj Nail Yakupov, RW, Sarnia Sting, OHL

#2 :canes Mikhail Grigorenko, C, Québec Remparts, LHJMQ

#3 :edmonton Ryan Murray, D, Everett Silvertips, WHL

#4 :isles Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer Rebels, WHL

#5 :sabres Alex Galchenyuk, C, Sarnia Sting, OHL

#6 :ducks Jacob Trouba, D, USA NTDP

#7 :bolts Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL

#8 :habs Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa 67's OHL

#9 :caps (from Colorado) Filip Forsberg, RW, Leksands IF, SuperElit, Sweden

#10 :jets Sebastian Collberg, RW, Frölunda HC, SuperElit, Sweden

#11 :flames Radek Faksa, C, Kitchener Rangers, OHL

#12 :wild Pontus Åberg, W, Djurgårdens IF, Elitserien, Sweden

#13 :stars Zemgus Girgensons, C, Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL

#14 :sens Henrik Samuelsson, RW, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

#15 :coyotes Charles Hudon, LW, Chicoutimi Saguenéens, LHJMQ

Mathletic 02-11-2012 03:11 PM

#16 :kings Martin Frk, RW, Halifax Mooseheads, LHJMQ

#17 :leafs Phil Di Giuseppe, LW, Michigan Wolverines, CCHA

#18 :devils Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL

#19 :panthers Jordan Schmaltz, D, Green Bay Gamblers, USHL

#20 :hawks Teuvo Teräväinen, RW, Jokerit, Jr. A SM-liiga, Finland

#21 :caps Brendan Gaunce, C, Belleville Bulls, OHL

#22 :nashville Derrick Pouliot, D, Portland Winterhawks, WHL

#23 :pens Olli Määttä, D, London Knights, OHL

#24 :flyers Slater Koekkoek, D, Peterborough Petes, OHL

#25 :sharks Matt Finn, D, Guelph Storm, OHL

#26 :blues Damon Severson, D, Kelowna Rockets, WHL

#27 :wings TomᚠHertl, C, HC Slavia Praha, Tipsport Extraliga, Czech Republic

#28 :bruins Colton Sissons, RW, Kelowna Rockets, WHL

#29 :nucks Lukas Sutter, C, Saskatoon Blades, WHL

#30 :rangers Andrei Vasilievski, G, Tolpar Ufa, MHL, Russia


Round 2

#31 - Columbus - Nicolas Kerdiles, F, USA NTDP
#32 - Carolina - Tom Wilson, RW, Plymouth Whalers, OHL
#33 - Edmonton - Adam Pelech, D, Erie Otters, OHL
#34 - NY Islanders - Stéfan Matteau, F, USA NTDP
#35 - Buffalo - Tanner Pearson, LW, Barrie Colts, OHL
#36 - Anaheim - Jake McCabe, D, Wisconsin Badgers, WCHA
#37 - Tampa Bay - Nick Ebert, D, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
#38 - Montreal - Malcolm Subban, G, Belleville, Bulls, OHL
#39 - Colorado - Coda Gordon, LW, Swift Current Broncos, WHL
#40 - Winnipeg - Daniil Zharkov, LW, Belleville Bulls, OHL
#41 - Buffalo from Calgary - Gemel Smith, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
#42 - San Jose (from Minnesota) - Mike Winther, C, Prince Albert Raiders, WHL
#43 - Dallas - Ville Pokka, D, Kärpät, Sm-Liiga, Finland
#44 - Phoenix from Ottawa - Devin Shore, C, Whitby Fury, OJHL
#45 - Phoenix - Tim Bozon, LW, Kamloops Blazers, WHL
#46 - Philadelphia from Los Angeles - Brian Cooper, D, Fargo Force, USHL
#47 - Toronto - Jon Gillies, G, Indianna Ice, USHL
#48 - New Jersey - Cody Corbett, D, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL
#49 - Florida - Ludvig Byström, D, MODO Hockey, Elitserien, Sweden
#50 - Chicago - Scott Kosmachuk, RW, Guelph Storm, OHL
#51 - New Jersey from Washington - Andreas Athanasiou, C, London Knights, OHL
#52 - Nashville - Jarrod Maidens, C, Owen Sound Attack, OHL
#53 - Pittsburgh - François Brassard, G, Québec Remparts, LHJMQ
#54 - Tampa Bay (from Philadelphia) - Oscar Dansk, G, Brynäs IF, SuperElit, Sweden
Compensatory Pick - San Jose - Scott Laughton, C, Oshawa Generals, OHL
#55 - Carolina (from San Jose) - Austin Cangelosi, F, Youngstown Phantoms, USHL
#56 - St. Louis - Raphaël Bussières, LW, Baie-Comeau Drakkar, LHJMQ
#57 - Detroit - Brady Vail, LW, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
#58 - Washington (from Boston via Colorado and Toronto) - Chris Marchese, LW, Windsor Spitfires, OHL
#59 - Vancouver - Dillon Fournier, D, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies, LHJMQ
#60 - NY Rangers - Robbie Baillargeon, RW, Indianna Ice, USHL

Vatican Roulette 02-11-2012 03:28 PM

#58, washington, there isn't a player listed.

Rankings look good IMO.

DaveG 02-11-2012 03:31 PM

I'll need new pants if the Canes somehow end up with Grigorenko and Wilson this year. Even if Wilson's offense never comes around he's the kind of guy the Canes could use in their system.

MPStoEberletoHall* 02-11-2012 03:35 PM

Oilers will grab Subban if still available at 33. Unless Frk and Wilson are still on the board

Mathletic 02-11-2012 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vatican Roulette (Post 43970075)
#58, washington, there isn't a player listed.

Rankings look good IMO.

thanks, fixed it with Marchese ... probably not going that high but still a good player who fits in with guys like Brouwer and other grinders the Caps acquired recently.

HanSolo 02-11-2012 03:47 PM

Very happy with the Trouba pick, though I want Galchenyuk more. And I guarantee you the Ducks don't pass on Subban to pick McCabe. Hell if we wanted defense we'd go for Bystrom.

KovalSNIPE 02-11-2012 03:56 PM

I like the Reinhart pick a lot. I'd want to trade both of our 2nds to get into the 1st round and pick Vasilievski. Subban I feel is going to be more of high risk, high reward goalie and Vasilievski is better potential and a better chance of reaching it. Subban's pretty small compared to today's standards

le_sean 02-11-2012 03:59 PM

I don't see Forsberg dropping to 9th, nor do I see the Habs passing on him if he does drop.

Mathletic 02-11-2012 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckJet (Post 43971343)
Very happy with the Trouba pick, though I want Galchenyuk more. And I guarantee you the Ducks don't pass on Subban to pick McCabe. Hell if we wanted defense we'd go for Bystrom.

Perhaps but I think Gibson is a franchise goalie. I liked him a lot last year and IMO is a superior prospect to Subban.

McCabe is a safe pick. I think the Ducks need more steady D. Outside of Clark, and now Trouba ... hypotetically ... McCabe could complete that core. Plus, he plays at Wisconsin with Schultz.

Quote:

Originally Posted by le_sean (Post 43972107)
I don't see Forsberg dropping to 9th, nor do I see the Habs passing on him if he does drop.

I thought about it. I think he'd be a good fit for the Habs. However, it never seemed to me like the Habs had much interest in drafting in Sweden. Not a great argument but still. Ceci showed great chemistry with Beaulieu in training camp for Team Canada and completes what should be a great D to come for the Habs, after investing on Price.

goforit 02-11-2012 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by le_sean (Post 43972107)
I don't see Forsberg dropping to 9th, nor do I see the Habs passing on him if he does drop.

This, and as good as Subban could be, I don't think the Habs will pick a goalie with their 2nd round pick. Not that they don't need goalies in the system (they have nothing behind Price), but I think that when you don't need a goalie ASAP, picking one each year, but in the later round is a better strategy.

dean youngblood82 02-11-2012 04:42 PM

I don't agree that Gibson is a "superior goalie" to Subban. Not at all.

In all honesty, I think Vasilevskiy is receiving a little too much credit (on most list) from his WJC performance. He was certainly good and definitely a top 3 goalie in this draft class but I still think Dansk and Subban are better options between the pipes.

What's the purpose of you ranking and mock drafting based on Statistics? Doesn't hold much value when NHL teams don't use that approach. Just curious as to why you choose to do it that way.

HanSolo 02-11-2012 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dean youngblood82 (Post 43974033)
I don't agree that Gibson is a "superior goalie" to Subban. Not at all.

In all honesty, I think Vasilevskiy is receiving a little too much credit (on most list) from his WJC performance. He was certainly good and definitely a top 3 goalie in this draft class but I still think Dansk and Subban are better options between the pipes.

What's the purpose of you ranking and mock drafting based on Statistics? Doesn't hold much value when NHL teams don't use that approach. Just curious as to why you choose to do it that way.

I'm a Ducks fan and I approve this message. Sure Gibson could become a franchise goalie. We don't really know. But Subban right now has proved he's better and you don't pass on him just cause you have a star G prospect. You pick BPA throughout the entire draft and the Ducks laugh as they pick Subban as the other teams stupidly pass on him.

McNuge 02-11-2012 05:23 PM

There is more to a goalie than just simply GAA and SV%, look at Gibson compared to Subban. I have a tough time believing you follow the O if you think Subban is better than Gibson let alone that he should be a first round pick. Gibson has had 1 game where he played bad and it was his first game ever might have even been in the preseason (not quite sure) other than that he has proved that he is the best goalie in the O or top 2 with Houser. Not saying that Subban is bad, but if you have a top goalie prospect and you use such a high draft pick in such a deep draft on a goalie than you seriously do not deserve to be a GM, period.

DangerMan 02-11-2012 05:30 PM

I could see the Oilers grabbing Pearson with the #33 pick. The Oilers have enough Dmen of Pelech's ilk. They are going to nee some immediate AHL help and Pearson could help with that as soon as next season. Pearson is a player that can be converted to center if need be. Versatile player.

Ryan Murray or Galchenyuk at 3? Tough call, I know the Oilers need help at D but they also need some "nuke" ability from the center position so they can start ascending forward. Galchenyuk being a shooting all around center would be a nice #2C behind RNH. At the moment the Oilers should be drafting 2nd and then it would be a no brainer to take Grigorenko.

Hugo Sham 02-11-2012 05:33 PM

based on the past + CP31 in nets, I'm 100% certain habs aren't going to take a d man and then goalie with their first two picks. ALL their needs are at forward / center.

they already have subban, emelin, tinordi, beaulieu, ellis etc

HTFN 02-11-2012 05:57 PM

I feel like Washington would be more interested in Pouliot or Maatta than Gaunce, but that's just me.

NeilYoung 02-11-2012 06:59 PM

I love it as a Caps fan.

dogbazinho 02-11-2012 07:12 PM

Please, please let the canes end up in the bottom 2.

Marshal Rochambeau 02-11-2012 07:24 PM

At 18 Reinhart is a steal. Gaunce and Maatta are the only players that may make Lou think twice, but Griffin is the better defenseman and while I like Gaunce, we are set at center.

HanSolo 02-11-2012 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeafsCupYear (Post 43975693)
There is more to a goalie than just simply GAA and SV%, look at Gibson compared to Subban. I have a tough time believing you follow the O if you think Subban is better than Gibson let alone that he should be a first round pick. Gibson has had 1 game where he played bad and it was his first game ever might have even been in the preseason (not quite sure) other than that he has proved that he is the best goalie in the O or top 2 with Houser. Not saying that Subban is bad, but if you have a top goalie prospect and you use such a high draft pick in such a deep draft on a goalie than you seriously do not deserve to be a GM, period.

Took a screen shot of this post. :D Gibson is really the best in the O? Good to hear.

And I do watch junior every chance I get...rarely.

spfan 02-12-2012 12:49 AM

Reinhart,Gaunce,Maatta,Koekoek and Finn are a little low
Hudon is high. Samuelsson is high at this point as he didn't play that well until coming to the WHL. He could rise that high by draft time though.
As a previous poster said, no way Montreal pass on Forsberg.
Brady Vail and Tom Wilson should be higher i'd say.

OilerOlli* 02-12-2012 05:14 AM

Montrealo would be very stupid to pick Ceci instead of Forsberg,imo.
For me there is a clear Top 8, perhaps Top 9 when you want to add Reinhart.
I agree with your Top 7.
If Trouba ahead of Rielly, or Forsberg ahead of both or not is very hard to predict. Same with Galchenyuk.
The long injuries are make it even more difficult. Depends on how much of a factor it is for the teams.

Mathletic 02-12-2012 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dean youngblood82 (Post 43974033)
I don't agree that Gibson is a "superior goalie" to Subban. Not at all.

In all honesty, I think Vasilevskiy is receiving a little too much credit (on most list) from his WJC performance. He was certainly good and definitely a top 3 goalie in this draft class but I still think Dansk and Subban are better options between the pipes.

What's the purpose of you ranking and mock drafting based on Statistics? Doesn't hold much value when NHL teams don't use that approach. Just curious as to why you choose to do it that way.

I had Vasilevskiy as my n'1 goalie before the WJC anyways. To me, he's a franchise goalie if he comes over.

I always had an interest in stats and maths at school but never applied it much to sports analysis since basic stats like goals, assists, rushing yards or whatever don't have much predictive value in themselves.

However, after 1st reading moneyball, I became very interested in the "deeper" statistical analysis in sports. I know teams don't use stats much except for a few teams. Especially in hockey. Outside of Vancouver, there's not too many teams out there that will rely on statistical models to run their team.

That said, I'm simply a fan at home. I don't have time to watch X player play in Skövde, Sweden in the Division-1 league. So, I thought I dig deeper in stats, and general data available for prospects and thought I'd buil a model to analyse players and form my own opinion. Not that I don't care for anyone else's. There's still plenty of work to do on my algorithms, but still. That way I get to "see" players in a different way.

PKSpecialist 02-12-2012 09:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mathletic (Post 44031779)
I had Vasilevskiy as my n'1 goalie before the WJC anyways. To me, he's a franchise goalie if he comes over.

I always had an interest in stats and maths at school but never applied it much to sports analysis since basic stats like goals, assists, rushing yards or whatever don't have much predictive value in themselves.

However, after 1st reading moneyball, I became very interested in the "deeper" statistical analysis in sports. I know teams don't use stats much except for a few teams. Especially in hockey. Outside of Vancouver, there's not too many teams out there that will rely on statistical models to run their team.

That said, I'm simply a fan at home. I don't have time to watch X player play in Skövde, Sweden in the Division-1 league. So, I thought I dig deeper in stats, and general data available for prospects and thought I'd buil a model to analyse players and form my own opinion. Not that I don't care for anyone else's. There's still plenty of work to do on my algorithms, but still. That way I get to "see" players in a different way.

:handclap:
First let me say that I appreciate the work that you have done here. I also appreciate that you have stepped outside the box and look at things differently than others. It takes a lot of guts to post rankings like this or to take the time to make a mock draft and then people come on here and post things like X team will never draft X player before Y player. RIGHT. Because you know how X team has their players ranked. I did an entire 7 round mock last year, with comments, and its a difficult process since like you, I am simply a fan at home. I watch a lot of hockey and I read a ton about prospects. I have found quite a few posters and bloggers whose opinions I give value to, and that is how I ranked and mock drafted the players.
You may not want your team to draft X player over Y player, but don't act like you know that it won't happen.

That out of the way, a couple of questions for you:
1. Ivan Nalimov - a Russian goalie out of the MHL? I've never heard of him. Maybe the next Bobrovsky? You have him rated as a second rounder, what have you heard about him that would make you rank him ahead of Dansk, Korpisalo?

2. You are from Quebec not? I am assuming that you have had a chance to see some of these prospects play which is why you have Charles Hudon rated so highly. Can you give me any info on some of the Q prospects. I am especially interested in the d-men form the Q. There is noone rated to go high amongst the QMJHL defenders this year. Central Scouting has Ryan Culkin at #89 as the first. You have Dillon Fournier as the 20th and your top Q prospect. I too have heard good things about Fournier, just looking for anothers opinion.


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