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-   -   Buy Low for Carter or Break Bank for Nash? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1107559)

Newfie John 02-15-2012 10:02 AM

Buy Low for Carter or Break Bank for Nash?
 
Hopefully this will take some of the chatter out of the rumors thread so it can be focused on actual rumors instead of hypotheticals.

It appears the Columbus Blue Jackets are poised to have a fire sale, and two players who would interest the Leafs are Jeff Carter and Rick Nash. Both address needs of the teams but at the same time are very different players.

Jeff CarterThe Pros

Jeff Carter is a big body center who before this season was a perennial 30 goal scorer. The big body is something the Leafs desperately need as its forward corps are incredibly small. Carter is good along the boards, though as a center he doesn't spend a heck of a lot of time there. His strength and reach make him a reasonably good defensive player, but there is certainly room for improvement there.

A big plus is that his cap hit is quite manageable at 5.2 million a year, though it is a long-term contract. His production is close to that of Phil Kessel's, and easily has 50 goal potential. The contract isn't really an issue for me.

Another plus is that this is a "buy low" opportunity. Jeff Carter's value has never been lower. Acquiring him has the potential to look like yet another Brian Burke steal a la Lupul and Phaneuf.

The Cons

Jeff Carter is primarily a shoot first player, so he does not really solve the need for a center for Kessel (that's assuming we need one, I like Bozak there just fine).

While he has a very good pedigree, his mental toughness is a concern given the pouting he's doing in Columbus right now. With only 21 points thus far this season (for reference, Kulemin has 23), he is really struggling.

Given Carter's shoot first mentality you would think he might be a fit on the wing. Forget it, it's been tried and he looks absolutely lost each time. He will be a center.

Given he's a center, another problem arises. We already have three in Bozak, Grabovski and Connolly. I doubt the chemistry would be there with Kessel, so he would likely form a 1B line. Given that is Grabovski's role, a trade bringing in Carter may mean Grabovski's time in Toronto is coming to a close. I can't imagine having Carter or Grabovski as the third line center, as neither are a real option to center Kessel.


Rick NashThe Pros

Rick Nash is the very picture of what the Leafs need more of up front. A problem with the Leafs forward corps is the lack of size, and they are absolutely horrendous on the boards. Rick Nash, is one of the if not the best player along the boards in the league. He has that combination of hands and brute force that make him an absolute handful to deal with.

I think he would be ideal on the opposite wing of Phil Kessel. While Kessel and Lupul have had great chemistry offensively, they are beyond bad in their own end. When this line is on the ice, it is the easiest pinch in the world for the opposing defencemen (if they miss the pinch though, it's almost always a goal). Right now this line is strictly a counter-attack line which thirsts upon speed from the neutral zone. Rick Nash doesn't upset that, but he allows them more zone time.

Unlike Carter, acquiring Nash does not jumble up the depth chart. Right now Joey Crabb is in our top nine. Gawd love him... but no. Slot him back on the fourth line, and have Joffrey Lupul slide down onto a line with Connolly (Wilson tried this once and he looked very good). Acquiring Nash allows for the following possibility:

Nash - Bozak - Kessel
Kulemin - Grabovski - MacArthur
Lupul - Connolly - Lombardi (Kadri next year instead of Lombo)
Brown - Steckel - Armstrong/Crabb

*This is assuming the Nash deal does not include a current forward. I'm thinking it costs Reimer, Schenn, Colborne, plus picks. In the event someone like MacArthur is part of the deal, Frattin or Kadri slide in. In the event they're not, Frattin or Kadri are likely part of the deal. This brings us to the cons.

The Cons

Over the past few years Brian Burke has done well to fill the cupboard with assets. Trading for Rick Nash could conceivably empty that cupboard, with guys like Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri, Joe Colborne, along with perhaps Luke Schenn or James Reimer. It's going to cost a ton, and as such serves a major risk. Carter will cost a fraction of what Nash will.

Further, Nash's contract is tough to swallow. He has another SIX years left at a cap hit of 7.8 million complete with an iron clad NMC. If this gamble doesn't work, it potentially erases the good work Burke and co have done over the past couple of years.

Somewhat similar to Jeff Carter, Nash's production on paper does not warrant his hype. This season he's on pace for 26 goals, and has cracked the 70 point barrier only once. While my gut feeling is that Nash would flourish with a good supporting cast, it is not a sure thing.


So, buy low for Carter, break the bank for Nash, or neither?

Penalty Kill Icing* 02-15-2012 10:03 AM

More likely scenario is Burke will sign some scrub Free Agent in summer. Story of every year. What else?


My preference would be buying low on Carter. His contract is lengthy, but a great cap hit for what he brings.

pooleboy 02-15-2012 10:06 AM

the lupul-bozak-kessel line is really bad defensivly cause of kessel, he isn't willing to take a hit to make a play.

btw i said break the bank for nash, if he is the player out there gotta get him, depends on the price cause his salary is pretty steep.

Pi 02-15-2012 10:06 AM

I dont see us getting any of them. I would personally want Nash, but I dont think he is coming.

Reim Job 02-15-2012 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pooleboy (Post 44179657)
the lupul-bozak-kessel line is really bad defensivly cause of kessel, he isn't willing to take a hit to make a play.

btw i said break the bank for nash, if he is the player out there gotta get him, depends on the price cause his salary is pretty steep.


I'm so sick of people saying this about Kessel. He is fine defensively. Pavel Datsyuk is arguably the best defensive forward in the league and you never see him lay out a huge hit. Don't want him on your team?

Ideally, I'd be happy with either of Nash and Carter. If we don't get Nash it will be because he is the one ultimately deciding where he goes so I won't be too disappointed if we miss out. I think Carter could be had for a reasonable cost so I'm probably learning toward Carter.

Anthrax442 02-15-2012 10:09 AM

Get both.

Eb 02-15-2012 10:10 AM

Did you make a poll so this thread wouldn't be moved to the Trade Rumour thread?

ACC1224 02-15-2012 10:10 AM

I'd bet people have vastly different ideas of what they consider "buying low" and "breaking the bank".

Michael Gary Scott 02-15-2012 10:12 AM

Buy low. Worth the risk. His cap hit wont really matter (assuming the cba continues this way) in a few years anyway. Could be a bargain depending on what the new cba brings us. Hopefully it continues along this path cause his cap hit in relation to the overall salary cap will continue to minimize. Good opportunity to buy low and sell very very high

blasted_Sabre 02-15-2012 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Penalty Kill Icing (Post 44179547)
More likely scenario is Burke will sign some scrub Free Agent in summer. Story of every year. What else?


My preference would be buying low on Carter. His contract is lengthy, but a great cap hit for what he brings.

Kessel was a free agent scrub? Lupul?

Anywho, my preference is Carter. More manageable cap hit, better two way player. We already have two All-Star Wingers. We need defensively responsible centres.

Mansfield 02-15-2012 10:17 AM

Depends what the asking price is. Not sure we should go after either for what the asking price will probably be...

Leafsman 02-15-2012 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ACC1224 (Post 44179817)
I'd bet people have vastly different ideas of what they consider "buying low" and "breaking the bank".

I would like to trade for Nash but don't believe you have to break the bank!

Mansfield 02-15-2012 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reim Job (Post 44179767)
I'm so sick of people saying this about Kessel. He is fine defensively. Pavel Datsyuk is arguably the best defensive forward in the league and you never see him lay out a huge hit. Don't want him on your team?

Ideally, I'd be happy with either of Nash and Carter. If we don't get Nash it will be because he is the one ultimately deciding where he goes so I won't be too disappointed if we miss out. I think Carter could be had for a reasonable cost so I'm probably learning toward Carter.

He's not saying Kessel won't lay at hit, he's saying he often won't take a hit to make a play; something Datsyuk absolutely will do.

Kessel is not awful defensively, but he's not great. That line regularly gets pinned in our zone because of Kessel's softness on the boards and it shows when he's not scoring.

Kulebeans 02-15-2012 10:21 AM

Much rather carter for the asking price. Nash would drain this franchise of its futures and we would be mortaging our future for a run this year

blasted_Sabre 02-15-2012 10:22 AM

If we get Carter, then *cross fingers* sign Parise this off season, our top 6 is set even without Grabo.

Lupul-Bozak-Kessel
Parise-Carter-Kulie/Mac

Sign Grabo and our top nine looks fairly respectable. I'd assume one of Kulie/Mac has to go for Carter.

Penalty Kill Icing* 02-15-2012 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre (Post 44179951)
Kessel was a free agent scrub? Lupul?

Anywho, my preference is Carter. More manageable cap hit, better two way player. We already have two All-Star Wingers. We need defensively responsible centres.

Unfortunately, this is not basketball that Kessel alone would change outcome of game.

Connolly, Komisarek, Beauchemin, Lebda, Armstrong are all part of those great FA signings. Just scrubs, scrubs and scrubs!

Got lucky on MacArthur but his value was too low when he signed. Don't forget that. Name 1 good FA signed by Burke as Leafs GM.

MoreMogilny 02-15-2012 10:31 AM

I much prefer the idea of buying low on Carter.

I think it's debatable who the better player is between him and Nash. Carter has the edge in career highs (46 goals in comparison to Nash's 40, and 84 points in comparison to Nash's 79), while Nash has him beat in PPG (.81 for Nash, .73 for Carter). Nash is bigger and stronger, but Carter is a year younger and better defensively (from what I've seen).

Both great players, but I like the fact that Carter is a center (a position of greater need), and is a lot easier on the cap. He also has proven chemistry with Lupul, and could give us a dynamite option on the top line, instead of having to keep resorting to Bozak (who I like, but he's just not good enough to be a top line center on a competing team). Also, and probably most importantly, it would cost less to pick up Carter. I don't want to sell the farm to get Nash.

Kadri43 02-15-2012 10:32 AM

We won't get either player. Their contract lengths are far too long and cap hit far too high. For either player to come to toronto it would take a significant roster hit. We would need to give back quality players especially since the asking price at this time would be fairly hefty. Secondly, we would need to shed MAJOR salary because we would not be cap complacent. Columbus is not taking backing **** players like lombardi, komi, or connoly. It also makes no sense to get rid of armstrong considering our considerable lack of tough players. Columbus will be expecting solid young players+draft picks in return. Not over paid bums.
Also there is no way burke makes those deals. He doesn't like the contract length of either player. Jeff Carter (a soft underachieving ( albeit on a **** team) overpaid center) is not the solution here. He is a pass first center with average passing abilities. This would not mix well with kessel who should be a shoot first right winger. Burke won't be getting nash because of the inflated asking price. There is no doubt that his underachieving numbers are a result of a **** team. However, if Burke persues a big fish it will be in a position of need. Yes Nash is strong, fast, good along the boards but will we take lupul and kessel off the first line. Will he be a good fit on the second line with grabo? Will he or kessel play the opposite wing? I think we need to pursue a position of need (center).
We need to continue to draft and develop players. Addressing our needs near the trade deadline is not the option as it will cost a HEAVY premium

fahad203 02-15-2012 10:33 AM

How about neither?

We can add by subtracting. Lets get rid of Lombardi, replace him with Frattin
Lets get rid of Steckel and replace with Zigamonis
Crabb with Kadri

We need a veteran presence, even at 33 I'll take Morrow

HenryH 02-15-2012 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mansfield (Post 44180201)
He's not saying Kessel won't lay at hit, he's saying he often won't take a hit to make a play; something Datsyuk absolutely will do.

Kessel is not awful defensively, but he's not great. That line regularly gets pinned in our zone because of Kessel's softness on the boards and it shows when he's not scoring.

If you've been watching the games, it's not just Kessel who is at fault for getting scored against. Lupul on many occasions have not been able to clear the puck out of their zone.

lyrrad 02-15-2012 10:37 AM

Carter > Nash.
How is this even debatable?

Nash has a 7.8 cap hit until 2018
Carter has a 5.2 cap hit until 2022

Carter is the big body, goal scoring centre this team desperately needs.

Nash is a RW that doesn't bring anything to the table that Kessel isn't already bringing.

Carter would completely change this team from pretender to contender.

And as for what it would take to get both, I think we can all agree Nash would garner the larger return for Columbus.

Mansfield 02-15-2012 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HenryH (Post 44180731)
If you've been watching the games, it's not just Kessel who is at fault for getting scored against. Lupul on many occasions have not been able to clear the puck out of their zone.

Oh, I agree, but Kessel is worse than Lupul in that regard.

I find lupul makes stupid plays defensively. Kessel makes soft plays defensively.

Kadri43 02-15-2012 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MoreMogilny (Post 44180603)
I much prefer the idea of buying low on Carter.

I think it's debatable who the better player is between him and Nash. Carter has the edge in career highs (46 goals in comparison to Nash's 40, and 84 points in comparison to Nash's 79), while Nash has him beat in PPG (.81 for Nash, .73 for Carter). Nash is bigger and stronger, but Carter is a year younger and better defensively (from what I've seen).

So your going to argue Carter's totals without even considering MANY extraneous variables. Playing on philadelphia and Columbus is like playing on two different planets. Philadelphia has always been surrounded by top talent. Nash has continuously been given nothing to play with on terrible teams. Saying this player is better than this player based purely on statistical observation while ignoring other factors is bad logic

ACC1224 02-15-2012 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lyrrad (Post 44180813)
Carter > Nash.
How is this even debatable?

Nash has a 7.8 cap hit until 2018
Carter has a 5.2 cap hit until 2022

Carter is the big body, goal scoring centre this team desperately needs.

Nash is a RW that doesn't bring anything to the table that Kessel isn't already bringing.

Carter would completely change this team from pretender to contender.

And as for what it would take to get both, I think we can all agree Nash would garner the larger return for Columbus.

Your last sentence contradicts the rest of your post.

mohare 02-15-2012 10:41 AM

I'd much rather have Carter. Nash isn't quite at the elite level where I'd give up anything to get him (like Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin).

Althought as long as Burke doesn't trade our 1st this year, Percy or Colborne I think I'd be fine with anything he does.


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