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-   -   Speculation: Kari's next contract (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1132167)

txomisc 03-11-2012 10:40 AM

Kari's next contract
 
I'd like to get an idea of what others are thinking as far as what kind of contract extension we're looking at for Lehtonen. I tend to be in the camp that thinks you shouldn't really pay a goalie very a crazy amount of money but I don't think GMJN is on the same page as I am with that. With the way Kari played last season and now this season I believe he has been as good as anyone could we be looking at a 6+ million a year cap hit?

ScubaSteve* 03-11-2012 10:59 AM

$6m+ is a little steep but Kari is probably worth something in the $5m-6m range.

LatvianTwist 03-11-2012 12:47 PM

Omg... A reasonable post by Steve?

I even agree with it...

Depends on the cap. I think 6 million per for 3 years would be a good contract for everyone.

He's only 28, so by the time his contract expires, he'll be 30. Not sure I'd want to commit to him any longer than 4 years, especially when Campbell will probably be banging down the door by then.

MetalGodAOD 03-11-2012 01:30 PM

I'd hope he takes less considering his career was over before he came here. $5mil x 5 years or something would make me happy.

piqued 03-11-2012 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by txomisc (Post 45887155)
I'd like to get an idea of what others are thinking as far as what kind of contract extension we're looking at for Lehtonen. I tend to be in the camp that thinks you shouldn't really pay a goalie very a crazy amount of money but I don't think GMJN is on the same page as I am with that. With the way Kari played last season and now this season I believe he has been as good as anyone could we be looking at a 6+ million a year cap hit?

When do you believe an extension should be signed?

Brand New Stars 03-11-2012 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnholyPrince (Post 45895195)
I'd hope he takes less considering his career was over before he came here. $5mil x 5 years or something would make me happy.

That's what I'm thinking. Dallas gave him the chance to succeed and put tons of faith in him. I think that's worth a small-ish discount.

Alistar 03-11-2012 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by txomisc (Post 45887155)
I'd like to get an idea of what others are thinking as far as what kind of contract extension we're looking at for Lehtonen. I tend to be in the camp that thinks you shouldn't really pay a goalie very a crazy amount of money but I don't think GMJN is on the same page as I am with that. With the way Kari played last season and now this season I believe he has been as good as anyone could we be looking at a 6+ million a year cap hit?

I'm with you in the don't pay top dollars for goalies camp, there's just too many damn good goalies out there available for cheap (and goaltender performance tends to be way too erratic to reliably predict) to go in deep on a contract for a goalie. There's alot of reasons to say don't give Kari a big contract, instead try and find a nice replacement on the cheap.

On the other hand I also believe in rewarding a guy for past performance, and for that reason I won't complain if they do give him somewhere in the range of 5-6 million. My only suggestion would be that they limit the length of the extension to 3-4 years, to provide some flexibility in case the injury problems do return or his performance does crater.

catters078 03-11-2012 05:43 PM

The area of 5 by 5 seems fair to me.

Bench 03-11-2012 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brand New Stars (Post 45904911)
That's what I'm thinking. Dallas gave him the chance to succeed and put tons of faith in him. I think that's worth a small-ish discount.

Just like Bryz did for Phoenix. :sarcasm:

Brand New Stars 03-11-2012 07:06 PM

Huge difference between taking a small discount vs taking an insanely stupid offer that can't be refused.

BigG44 03-11-2012 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brand New Stars (Post 45914555)
Huge difference between taking a small discount vs taking an insanely stupid offer that can't be refused.

Brzy signed for exactly what he asked for. It's the reason Phoenix traded him. He wasn't going to cave and no discount was offered

Plus, when is the last time a Dallas player took a discount? Ott, Daley, and Robidas all signed market contracts. We all said they give Dallas a discount too. The mythical home town discount is pretty rare.

BigG44 03-11-2012 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piqued (Post 45897617)
When do you believe an extension should be signed?

This fall as soon as the new CBA is settled.

BigG44 03-11-2012 08:10 PM

Jonas Hiller at 28 years old signed 4 years for $4.5 million/year.
Miikka Kiprusoff at 32 years old signed 6 years for $5,833,333/year.
Niklas Backstrom at 31 years old signed 4 years for $6 million/year.
Ryan Miller at 29 years old signed 5 years for $6.25 million/year.
Henrik Lundqvist at 27 years old signed $6 years for $6.875/million.
Pekka Rinne at 29 years old signed 7 years for $7 million/year.

I left off Bryzgalov's 9 year deal and Luongo's 12 year deals because those don't seem realistic from a team like Dallas. Plus, they could be a thing of the past with a new CBA.

BigG44 03-11-2012 08:27 PM

With the exception of Kipper and Ryan Miller, none had multiple series wins in the playoffs. Only Lundqvist had 2 of the remaining group who had 1 or less.

Lehtonen's Dallas stats compare favorably to all of those goaltenders regular season stats.

Ampersand 03-11-2012 08:32 PM

5 mil for 5 years?

BigG44 03-11-2012 08:33 PM

I'll go with 4 years for $37 $25 million ($6.25 million/year)

BigG44 03-11-2012 08:37 PM

I haven't heard any noise about the 35+ contract going away so assuming it stays in the next CBA, I think it would not be smart for Kari to sign for longer than 5 years. He'd have one last opportunity for a bigger pay day as long as he stays under 6 years.

LatvianTwist 03-11-2012 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigG44 (Post 45922173)
I'll go with 4 years for $37 million ($6.25 million/year)

Uh... That comes out to 9.25 per... :laugh:

Assuming you meant 25?

BigG44 03-11-2012 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LatvianTwist (Post 45922987)
Uh... That comes out to 9.25 per... :laugh:

Assuming you meant 25?

Yeah ... I didn't change it. Started to say 6 years and ultimately decided on 4. Somehow ended up multiplying the 6 by 6 and .25 by 4 in my head.

LatvianTwist 03-11-2012 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigG44 (Post 45923469)
Yeah ... I didn't change it. Started to say 6 years and ultimately decided on 4. Somehow ended up multiplying the 6 by 6 and .25 by 4 in my head.

Ah. 6 years just seems too long. 4 makes a lot more sense.

glovesave_35 03-11-2012 11:42 PM

If he doesn't prove something to the rest of the league in the playoffs before he becomes an UFA then that will probably knock his value down a bit. I can't imagine a team giving him 5 years at $6 mil/per without having some level of success in the playoffs. And while he's been better about staying healthy here he's still not exactly in the running for a perfect attendance award. Most of the goalies listed above making pretty big money are all generally considered more durable than Kari.

Depending on what's out there and what we have here I would hope to stay around $5 mil/year for 3-4 years. (I realize this may be unrealistic, I just hope it wouldn't be much more than that...)

Brand New Stars 03-12-2012 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigG44 (Post 45915515)
Brzy signed for exactly what he asked for. It's the reason Phoenix traded him. He wasn't going to cave and no discount was offered

Plus, when is the last time a Dallas player took a discount? Ott, Daley, and Robidas all signed market contracts. We all said they give Dallas a discount too. The mythical home town discount is pretty rare.

Loui took one.

Ambassador Of Fun 03-12-2012 01:29 AM

I don't think most of you are accounting for cap inflation. I would guess $6m/y for 4-5 years.

glovesave_35 03-12-2012 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ambassador Of Fun (Post 45933921)
I don't think most of you are accounting for cap inflation. I would guess $6m/y for 4-5 years.

Cap inflation is one thing but it doesn't mean you should start throwing money away. 5 years at $6mil/year is a very big commitment for a guy who still has durability issues.

BigG44 03-12-2012 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brand New Stars (Post 45932351)
Loui took one.

No he didn't. He took a longer term RFA contract that he's turned into one of the top contracts in the league. His contract was market value for RFA forwards and almost identical to David Booth. It was a major but calculated risk. It's also become the standard for a guy like JVR.

I love Loui, but he had 1 good season before he signed that contract. Well, technically he was about a month into another solid year before signing.

I'd love to be on board with the home town discount myth, but like I said, they are very rare. Even Goligoski's deal is in the same area as other RFA defenders giving up UFA years. It's typically not that difficult to predict a guy re-signing a contract. The NHL is a copycat league. The only time it get's really hard is on July 1st when NHL GM's like to throw reason out the window.


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