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The Official 2012 Draft Thread: Part V | "Fizzling for Rissling"
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Part I: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=969315 Part II: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...080917&page=27 Part III: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1087899 Part IV: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1107243 Quote:
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Last Few Posts....
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No poll this time around? I like changing my mind every thread. To show I chose the right guy at least once.
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There was lots of talk from fans and talking heads saying RNH was too small and Larsson/Landeskog didn't have the offense. But, anyone who watched them knew that that wasn't the case. |
DOUSEDINOIL'S 5TH ANNUAL DRAFT RANKINGS 2011: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=915727 2010: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=780117 2009: Still trying to locate haha 2008: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=522745 Disclaimer: I am not a professional scout. That is to say, I am an Edmonton Oilers fanatic that is obsessed with CHL hockey and the tank that is the Oilers. I rely heavily on other scouting services for video and reports on European players. I love watching these young professionals and providing an independent service that incorporates the rankings of other scouts while stating my own personal opinion. Although most scouts are very good at gathering primary data, I find that they often misinterpret it. If you do not agree with me, you are intitled to your opinion as well. Having said I will provide a rational explanation for all my rankings and interpreting secondary data. Scouting Philosophy: 1. Player Types: Scouts tend to fall in love with certain types of players rather than focusing on top end potential and the individuals skill set. Example: Tom Wilson brings the size and toughness teams need down the road. Everyone pegs him as the next Lucic despite struggling offensively. It makes very little sense to pick a player who is pegged as a third line winger rather than someone who is capable of being a second line center. 2. Past Rankings: Rather than focusing on the individual, scouts often project the success rate of certain players based on previous results. This is similar to the gamblers fallacy. Example: Erik Johnson was a 1st overall selection and never met expectations. Although this is true, it has no implication that any future defencemen selected 1st overall will bust. 3. Comparisons: Just because something is similar between players, doesn't mean that everything is similar between players. Example: Matt Dumba has been compared to PK Subban because of the style of game he plays. Yet, Subban has questionable character issues. Matt Dumba is Matt Dumba and no one else. Comparisons are great but aren't perfect. 4. Best Player Available: I always found this to be a term that people use in false dilemmas. They try and polarize BPA from need. Rather, team dynamics, depth charts systems, mentors, etc all play important parts of a kids development. Some players play better under different situations. Rather, I don't focus on just need or BPA but BVA- best value available. If a player is clearly on another level, you go with the player that is significantly better. However if they are nearly equal you pick the player that addresses the teams long term need. Example: Its not a good idea to take a guy like Plante (projected 2nd rounder) over a guy like Max Paciorrety because at the time we needed defence. But at the same time someone like Gagner was the BPA but hasnt addresses any kind of long term void. http://ohl.uploads.mrx.ca/sarnia/ima...akupov0141.JPG |
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Vasilevski, Dansk, Gillies and Subban are definitely less enticing than Hellberg, Gibson, Gibson and Perhonen. |
There is no way the thread title doesn't break some kind of law bahaha.
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There was lots of discussion about Hopkins not being ready/physically mature, Larsson not being "offensive" enough, and similar questions about the offensive upside of Landeskog's game. There is no doubt about Yakupov going first overall. Probably the biggest lock for first overall in the last few years. Most people feel Grigorenko is #2, and after that most people feel it is Murray at #3. |
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Perhonen? Really? |
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Seriously though, he just seems like such a solid, mature talent in net. Good reflexes, great angles.. all around package. Love to get him with a late 1st rounder in the Oilers get another one... or if he drops to the 2nd round (very doubtful). As to how strong the draft is... just my very rough assessment but it looks strong when it comes to dmen. At this stage you could make arguments for maybe 15 dmen being picked in the 1st round. I doubt that many will actually be chosen because not every team goes for a dman that early... but you certainly could say that half of the top 30 prospects are dmen this year and people wouldn't look at you like you're crazy. D Ryan Murray D Mathew Dumba D Morgan Rielly D Jacob Trouba D Griffin Reinhart D Cody Ceci D Matt Finn D Slater Koekkoek D Olli Määttä D Derrick Pouliot D Ludvig Bystrom D Brady Skeji D Michael Matheson D Damon Severson D Jordan Schmaltz D Dalton Thrower D Ville Pokka D Hampus Lindholm That's a list of 18 dmen who all have shots at going in the 1st. There will definitely be a few names on that list still available early in the 2nd and I have a feeling someone in the 2nd half of that list will likely be an Oiler come June. It's certainly looking weaker for forwards with maybe only a half dozen or so forwards really riding high in the rankings. It looks decent for goalies. If 2 goalies are picked in the 1st which could happen this year, that pretty much makes it a solid year for goalies. Of course it's all relative... does the dmen pool look more promising just because the forwards are so weak in this draft by comparison or is this a truly strong year for dmen? Probably a bit of both. As always the strength of the draft won't really be known for a few years as all the prospects make their way (or not) to their NHL clubs. Button is "unique" with his rankings. He's one "rogue" voice so he is always going to have some off the wall picks. I'd much sooner look at the ISS rankings or Bobby Macs consensus list for a truer picture of what the scouts are thinking. I do think though that in a year with a weak crop of forwards and a LOT of defensmen who are pretty close to each other (beyond the top handful of dmen prospects there are a lot of others that are close)... you are bound to get a lot of disparity on various draft lists. I personally think you'll see Yakupov, Grigorenko, Galchenyuk, Murray, Dumba in the top 5... but the order could be any which way and any of them (outside Yakupov imo) may drop a few notches. After the top 5 or so, the draft order could be all over the board when it comes to the rest of the top prospects. It actually should make for an interesting draft because you don't really know where any prospect will end up... even more so than in most other years anyway. |
Dumba scares the hell out of me.
There's no consensus about him. Some seem to think he'll be the best d-man in this draft. Others call him a wreck in his own end. Without seeing him play, I'm inclined to think the truth is somewhere in the middle. And that's probably not good enough for such a high pick. But, again, I haven't actually seen the kid... |
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Certainly he doesnt hold a candle to any of the top three goalies in this draft. In fact, I would prefer all three to ANY goalie from last year's draft. |
I would take John Gibson over Vasilevski, Hellberg over Dansk and Gillies over Chris Gibson.
I don't care how talented Subban is. You're just asking for trouble when you draft a goalie with chronic groin injuries already at 18 years old. |
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Grigorenko is the perfect fit for this team; they really need some size in the top six to go with Kid line/Hemsky.
Then they can package Sam "Mike Comrie" Gagner for some help on Defense. |
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I really feel we should draft a center either 2nd or 3rd overall. It's going to take 3 or so years for a drafted dman to make an impact most likely and even then it appears harder to evaluate defensmen at this stage. I'm hoping we'll draft a center and then trade Gagner in a package for a defensmen who can help us now. I don't think we should waste another year of the kids ELC's coming last and I think drafting a center helps us now more than anything especially if we can move what pieces we have in abundance at forward for areas that need help elsewhere. Galchenyuk and Grigorenko are my choices.
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If anyone has a problem with this edition's title (besides it being the worst one since Ryan Murray), let me know. I'm not married to it by any means. |
Is there a Justin Schultz to the Oilers thread? If the Oilers could sign this guy, wow. He has some sublime offensive ability for a d-man and has a well-rounded game.
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Just my gut feeling but I now think the Oilers will pass on Grigorenko. It doesn't sound like he's a consensus #2 which makes me think they go with one of the Dmen instead.
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A smooth skating D-man who has incredibly high hockey sense, can play in all situations and is ready to play in the NHL? I think the guy fits what Stu and Tambo are looking for in a prospect IMO. |
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