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-   -   Bob Cole Divisional Quarterfinals: Philadelphia vs. Winnipeg (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1157169)

Sturminator 04-07-2012 08:46 AM

Bob Cole Divisional Quarterfinals: Philadelphia vs. Winnipeg
 
http://www.puckinghockey.com/wp-cont...lyers-logo.gif

Philadelphia Flyers
Head Coach: Lindy Ruff
Captain: Ebbie Goodfellow
Alternate Captains: Gordie Howe, Trevor Linden

Paul Kariya-Joe Nieuwendyk-Gordie Howe(A)
Dickie Moore-Joe Primeau-Babe Dye
Adam Graves-Fred Stanfield-Harry Hyland
Reg Fleming-Trevor Linden(A)-Kenny Wharram
Neal Broten, Bill Thoms, Victor Shalimov

Borje Salming-Leo Boivin
Ebbie Goodfellow(C)-Leo Reise Jr.
Reed Larson-Dallas Smith
Doug Barkley

Jiri Holecek
Henrik Lundqvist


Vs.

Winnipeg Saints

http://www.winnipeghockey.com/wp-con...ipegSaints.gif

Coach Tommy Gorman

6 Ace Bailey - 9 Ted Kennedy (C) - 14 Theoren Fleury
16 Bert Olmstead - 7 Joe Malone (A^) - 92 Rick Tocchet
11 Vic Hadfield - 14 Cooney Weiland - 12 Peter Bondra
20 Al Secord - 32 Dale Hunter (A*) - 5 Billy Boucher
10 Jimmy Peters - 17 Rabbit McVeigh

2 Eddie Shore
- 15 Red Horner (A*)
3 Lionel Conacher (A^) - 96 Phil Housley
19 Bucko McDonald - 8 Goldie Prodger
28 Steve Duchesne - 22 Alexander Gusev

1 Hap Holmes
27 Ron Hextall

vecens24 04-07-2012 12:08 PM

Interesting matchup here too. I like Winnipeg's coaching advantage as the biggest reason they have a chance to pull off an upset.

monster_bertuzzi 04-07-2012 12:13 PM

Sorry Vancity and Hedberg, but Philly is my pick to go all the way this year. Way too deep, way too much firepower.

BenchBrawl 04-07-2012 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi (Post 47468249)
Sorry Vancity and Hedberg, but Philly is my pick to go all the way this year. Way too deep, way too much firepower.

you won't even wait for the debate to decide? So Basically you'll just vote for Philly against everybody even if arguments are made that could change the strenght of some players and chemistry?

Why even bother doing the playoffs in this case.

monster_bertuzzi 04-07-2012 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BenchBrawl (Post 47468449)
you won't even wait for the debate to decide? So Basically you'll just vote for Philly against everybody even if arguments are made that could change the strenght of some players and chemistry?

Why even bother doing the playoffs in this case.

I will hear out the arguements from all teams of course, but I don't see much of a chance of Winnipeg changing my mind here.

MadArcand 04-07-2012 12:53 PM

I gotta admit, I don't see what's the rage with Philly. Poor Howe is saddled with 2nd line center and lower-end 1st line LW. There's friggin' Boivin on the top pairing. Mediocre goaltending. And almost certainly the worst coach in the draft.

vecens24 04-07-2012 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47470397)
I gotta admit, I don't see what's the rage with Philly. Poor Howe is saddled with 2nd line center and lower-end 1st line LW. There's friggin' Boivin on the top pairing. Mediocre goaltending. And almost certainly the worst coach in the draft.

Good team, deserved to finish ahead of mine for sure (when I first attempted to vote, I actually attempted to put you ahead of me Billy before realizing we had to put ourself first lol), but we'll see what happens in the playoffs.

Certainly not a shoo-in to go all the way, but then again who is?

BillyShoe1721 04-07-2012 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47470397)
I gotta admit, I don't see what's the rage with Philly. Poor Howe is saddled with 2nd line center and lower-end 1st line LW. There's friggin' Boivin on the top pairing. Mediocre goaltending. And almost certainly the worst coach in the draft.

Kariya is still a legit 1st liner, and Nieuwendyk is somewhat out of place as a 1st line center in a 32 team draft, but that's fine. I chose to have my glue guy at center because there is so much depth at center that the difference between the talents of one center is much less than that of a winger. There is way more depth at center compared to either wing position. Having your glue guy at center rather than having him at wing makes your line more talented. I have likely one of the best 2nd lines in the entire draft as well.

Goodfellow may switch to the top pairing depending upon the matchups, I'll have to analyze which I decide to do in this matchup. Boivin is there to make the life of the opponent a living hell, and next to Salming, he should be able to do that.

If Holecek is mediocre, then what does that make my opponent's starter Hap Holmes? Holecek is a polarizing goalie. Some think he's better than Tretiak, some think he's much worse.

I put much less of an emphasis on coaching compared to most. My team isn't going to need much coaching, we're going to send them out and play. We're not going to be doing much line matching, we're going to dictate our own matchups by having so much depth on offense and not worry about shutting the opponent down. We're going to make the opponent play our game. And that works with Ruff, who is more of a motivator than a tactician.

Nalyd Psycho 04-07-2012 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47470397)
I gotta admit, I don't see what's the rage with Philly. Poor Howe is saddled with 2nd line center and lower-end 1st line LW. There's friggin' Boivin on the top pairing. Mediocre goaltending. And almost certainly the worst coach in the draft.

Have to agree. I can't help but view Nieuwendyk as a weak, even borderline 2nd line centre. Him on a first line is IMO the drafts biggest sore thumb. Even more than LL's 1st pairing.

Sturminator 04-07-2012 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 (Post 47472509)
There is way more depth at center compared to either wing position. Having your glue guy at center rather than having him at wing makes your line more talented.

This is a nonsense argument which revolves around the idea that you get a stronger player at center than at wing at any given point in the draft, but strangely ignores the fact that this is true for every pick after Bobby Hull is taken off the board.

That being said, Philadelphia certainly has dangerous offensive depth, and I don't have any problem with Holecek. Jiri is a slightly below average starter; I wouldn't call him a "mediocre" one. Boivin on a top pairing next to a below average #1 is the biggest concern, but it's not necessarily crippling.

monster_bertuzzi 04-07-2012 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47470397)
I gotta admit, I don't see what's the rage with Philly. Poor Howe is saddled with 2nd line center and lower-end 1st line LW. There's friggin' Boivin on the top pairing. Mediocre goaltending. And almost certainly the worst coach in the draft.

It's the depth of his bottom 6 forwards which is fantastic, and his top 4 on defence overall is stellar as well. Yeah, Nieuwendyk isn't a 1st line center but who cares? He has Gordie *** Howe and Paul Kariya on his wings.

Nalyd Psycho 04-07-2012 03:00 PM

I honestly prefer Winnipeg's bottom 6...

MadArcand 04-07-2012 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sturminator (Post 47473181)
That being said, Philadelphia certainly has dangerous offensive depth, and I don't have any problem with Holecek. Jiri is a slightly below average starter; I wouldn't call him a "mediocre" one. Boivin on a top pairing next to a below average #1 is the biggest concern, but it's not necessarily crippling.

me·di·o·cre   
adjective
1.
of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad;

That's what I meant. I too see him as a bit below average.

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster_bertuzzi
It's the depth of his bottom 6 forwards which is fantastic, and his top 4 on defence overall is stellar as well. Yeah, Nieuwendyk isn't a 1st line center but who cares? He has Gordie *** Howe and Paul Kariya on his wings.

Bottom 6 may be good (though Graves makes me cringe), but Kariya is low-end 1st liner himself.

Philly is a fine team, but runaway draft winner? Nope.

TheDevilMadeMe 04-07-2012 07:41 PM

I'm curious to know how Tommy Gorman will deploy the Eddie Shore - Red Horner pairing. It's not a modern shut down pairing; it's an old fashioned intimidation pairing.

Sturminator 04-07-2012 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47486779)
me·di·o·cre   
adjective
1.
of only ordinary or moderate quality; neither good nor bad;

That's what I meant. I too see him as a bit below average.


Bottom 6 may be good (though Graves makes me cringe), but Kariya is low-end 1st liner himself.

Philly is a fine team, but runaway draft winner? Nope.

con·no·ta·tion

noun

1. The suggestion of a meaning by a word apart from the thing it explicitly names or describes

Don't tell me you don't realize that the word "mediocre" has negative connotations, MadAr. Mediocre is how one describes something that is bad in a boring and common way.

Nalyd Psycho 04-08-2012 12:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe (Post 47505115)
I'm curious to know how Tommy Gorman will deploy the Eddie Shore - Red Horner pairing. It's not a modern shut down pairing; it's an old fashioned intimidation pairing.

They are both fully capable of being a shutdown pairing. It's a mistake around here that people have this perception of Shore that he can't lock a game down tight. He can.

BillyShoe1721 04-08-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sturminator (Post 47473181)
This is a nonsense argument which revolves around the idea that you get a stronger player at center than at wing at any given point in the draft, but strangely ignores the fact that this is true for every pick after Bobby Hull is taken off the board.

I'm not really seeing how this is a nonsense argument. The 50th center taken was Mike Modano. The 50th left and right winger selected were Dick Duff and Joe Mullen. Granted, Modano was selected at 180 and Duff/Mullen were selected at 283 and 317, but Modano is easily the superior player to both of these guys. My point was that if you make your center the glue guy of the line, then he is almost assuredly going to be a better player than if you made a winger the glue guy. Even if you wait as long as I did to take Nieuwendyk, then the center is still going to be the stronger player. As long as you get good value for where you are selecting players(which I think I did), I don't see why Nieuwendyk absolutely cannot work on a first line.

BillyShoe1721 04-08-2012 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadArcand (Post 47486779)
Bottom 6 may be good (though Graves makes me cringe), but Kariya is low-end 1st liner himself.

Philly is a fine team, but runaway draft winner? Nope.

What do you have against Adam Graves? I think he's a fantastic bottom 6 player in the ATD. He's a great two-way player with physicality, he can play policeman so Howe doesn't have to, he protects Hyland, and he's big and strong enough to check some of the big RWs in my division like Jagr and Bill Cook. Add in the fact that he chips in some offense, I don't see why he's a problem here. 3x top 9 in Selke voting(3x top 2 among LW) is better than the Selke record of anyone on Winnipeg if I were to guess looking at the roster. Complain about how offensively geared my forwards are, but there are 2 responsible(or better) two-way players on every line. You can only say that about Winnipeg's 1st and 3rd lines(and I don't value Peter Bondra defensively very much, just a very small plus)

TheDevilMadeMe 04-08-2012 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho (Post 47539829)
They are both fully capable of being a shutdown pairing. It's a mistake around here that people have this perception of Shore that he can't lock a game down tight. He can.

I agree that Shore showed (at least in the second half of his career) perfectly capable of locking things down. I was trying to conpliment the pair - but much of their defensive value does come from the physical / intimidation game.

I can see them and Howe having some epic battles

Sturminator 04-08-2012 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 (Post 47551035)
I'm not really seeing how this is a nonsense argument. The 50th center taken was Mike Modano. The 50th left and right winger selected were Dick Duff and Joe Mullen. Granted, Modano was selected at 180 and Duff/Mullen were selected at 283 and 317, but Modano is easily the superior player to both of these guys. My point was that if you make your center the glue guy of the line, then he is almost assuredly going to be a better player than if you made a winger the glue guy. Even if you wait as long as I did to take Nieuwendyk, then the center is still going to be the stronger player. As long as you get good value for where you are selecting players(which I think I did), I don't see why Nieuwendyk absolutely cannot work on a first line.

Your Modano vs. Duff/Mullen example is brutal and you gave the reason why. If you draft a wing in the third round, you'll pick up better value later when you take a center, but you likely gave up value in an absolute sense vs. the centers who were available when you took the early wing in the first place. It balances out most of the time. Taking a center gives you the best value in an absolute sense at almost any point in the draft, not only in the middle or late rounds. There are tiers and little corners and curves in every draft so it doesn't hold true 100%, but generally speaking this is the case.

Drafting a wing usually means you leave some value on the table in order to fill a scarcer position. In the rare moments in the draft when a wing is actually the BPA, it is almost always the right move to draft that wing unless the team fit is just terrible. This is one of the reasons why Gordie Howe's teams always start the draft with a meaningful advantage. It is not a coincidence that Howe has skated for two Milt Dunnel Cup winners while Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux have all skated for none.

Sturminator 04-08-2012 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 (Post 47551383)
What do you have against Adam Graves?

I don't get that, either. Graves is a very good third liner, and I thought a steal where you drafted him.

BillyShoe1721 04-08-2012 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sturminator (Post 47554113)
Your Modano vs. Duff/Mullen example is brutal and you gave the reason why. If you draft a wing in the third round, you'll pick up better value later when you take a center, but you likely gave up value in an absolute sense vs. the centers who were available when you took the early wing in the first place. It balances out most of the time. Taking a center gives you the best value in an absolute sense at almost any point in the draft, not only in the middle or late rounds. There are tiers and little corners and curves in every draft so it doesn't hold true 100%, but generally speaking this is the case.

Drafting a wing usually means you leave some value on the table in order to fill a scarcer position. In the rare moments in the draft when a wing is actually the BPA, it is almost always the right move to draft that wing unless the team fit is just terrible. This is one of the reasons why Gordie Howe's teams always start the draft with a meaningful advantage. It is not a coincidence that Howe has skated for two Milt Dunnel Cup winners while Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux have all skated for none.

I guess my point was that you can get better value at center without sacrificing as much offense for intangibles compared to selecting a wing to play that position, no matter where you select the actual player. A glue guy at center is going to be a better glue guy at wing 99 times out of 100.

BillyShoe1721 04-08-2012 12:09 PM

Leo Boivin vs. Red Horner

It seems as though people have an issue with Leo Boivin on my top pairing. I'll admit that he's not ideal here, but as much as Boivin isn't ideal, Red Horner is not an ideal partner for Eddie Shore. They'll make a terrifying combination to deal with in the corners, but in terms of being effective defensively, I'm not so sure.

Nowhere in the bio of Red Horner do I get the impression he was a good defensive player. The read that I have on him is that he liked to run around and take people's heads off, taking a lot of penalties in the process. He was also a solid but unspectacular offensive player. Sort of like Rob Blake, but even moreso. How is this style going to fit with Eddie Shore, who liked to do the very same? I could see this pairing going out of the way for the big hit, and taking themselves out of position and leaving their goalie exposed. This pairing is also going to have a significant issue with taking penalties. Between them, they led the league in penalty minutes 8 times, and have 19 top 10s in penalty minutes. Compared to my top pairing(which is still very physical, but not to the level of Winnipeg's), our 3 top 10s seems like nothing. If they want to take penalties, my power play will be happy to have the increased time. Their intimidation tactics also will not be as effective as they would against a normal team. Adam Graves will be the policeman for Harry Hyland if these two try anything, and Howe will throw down when only absolutely necessary. Fleming is also willing to go with guys that are bigger than him.

Boivin's all star record is the following: (7, 11, 12, 15) and his Norris record is (5, 8, 10). He also made 3 all star games by merit.

For a top pairing defenseman, I'll admit it's not that good. But, Leo is here to make the lives of other forwards a living hell, and he should be very good at doing that while also being good defensively.

I think Red Horner gets drafted too high in the ATD. Previously, he was drafted so high based on speculation. We didn't have any voting records for when he was in his prime years outside of the top 4. But now that those records are uncovered, I think he definitely deserves to have his draft stock downgraded significantly. I don't know how to get finishes out of the way the voting record worked back then, but this is what he got:

39-40: one point alternate LD
38-39: one point first team LD, two points alternate team LD
37-38: one point first team RD, two points alternate RD
36-37: one point alternate RD, one point alternate LD
34-35: 4th first team RD(3 points)
33-34: 6th alternate RD, 4th alternate LD(2 points each)
32-33: one point alternate RD

I'm not sure if I see a really significant year of recognition in there. I could be wrong because I don't know how exactly the system works, but it looks like mostly token mentions almost every year. If somebody could explain how the system works, then I'll calculate his finishes. Or if you'd like to do the work, I'd be even more appreciative.

My point is that Red Horner is not a good fit for Eddie Shore. I think Horner should definitely be selected lower than where he has been in the past.

Sturminator 04-08-2012 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillyShoe1721 (Post 47555935)
I guess my point was that you can get better value at center without sacrificing as much offense for intangibles compared to selecting a wing to play that position, no matter where you select the actual player. A glue guy at center is going to be a better glue guy at wing 99 times out of 100.

It is typically easier to find good two-way centers than two-way wings, if that's what you mean, though it's also not that hard to draft two-way centers early and pure scoring wings later on. There always seems to be value at right wing past pick 300.

TheDevilMadeMe 04-08-2012 12:35 PM

Assuming 2 points for a 1st Team vote and 1 point for a 2nd Team vote (which is not the system actually used but we still aren't sure how they actually tallied them), this is Horner's All Star record:

7th in 1934
10th in 1935
8th in 1937 (with 2 votes)
5th in 1938
8th in 1939

Also a single vote in 1933 and 1940 (which I don't count as a ranking)

Surprised you missed this:
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1115501


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