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Lshap 04-10-2012 09:39 PM

Blown Leads: Some Interesting Stats
 
The Blown Leads Story:

As we all know, 2011/12 was about watching the Habs get worse as the game went on. Checking the stats, I found it interesting that in the 1st and 2nd periods we were decent in scoring goals and among the league's best in preventing goals. Then, of course, it all went to hell in the 3rd period. Here's how it played out:

1st Period: We scored 66 goals in the 1st period -- 13th best in the league (Vancouver's #1 with 81 goals). Outscored the opposition 66-60. Allowing 60 GA in the 1st period was 8th best. Not bad.

2nd Period: Still good, we outscored the opposition 74-67. 74 goals was 15th in the league (Philly had 98). In fact, allowing only 67 GA in the 2nd period is 6th best in the league.

3rd Period: Uh-oh... outscored 65-83. Our 65 goals was 22nd in the league; allowing 83 goals was also 22nd in the league.

Because of this 3rd period breakdown we ended up with the worst record in the league when scoring first -- 20-11-10. Brutal. We got the first goal and still lost more than half the time! Strangely, things weren't that different last year, when we outscored our opponents in periods one and two, but were outscored 56-72 in the 3rd. But (and it's a BIG but) in 2010/11 we were 32-6-6 when scoring first.

The Penalty Story:

Yes, we had a great PK, but did you know how often it was tested? The Habs were the second-most shorthanded team in the NHL (315 times); only Philadelphia was shorthanded more often (319 times). On a positive note, we actually killed more penalties than anyone else in the league (279 successful PKs), even though NJ had a better percentage.

We all know our PP was awful, but did you know how incredibly often it had the chance to be awful? We had the 3rd most PPs in the league (301 - behind only Philly and Columbus). We scored 43 PP goals, which means we let 258 PP opportunities slip away. Only Philly (66 goals in 335 PP) and Columbus (49 goals in 317 PP) had more unsuccessful PPs, though both had a better PP%.

So Close

Here's where all those blown PPs made a difference. The Habs' record for one-goal games was 11-10-16. That means 37 games - almost half the season - was decided by one goal. Our winning% of 297% is the worst in the league, by far (Carolina is next at 341%). Contrast this with last year, when the Habs were 19-5-8 in one-goal games, 5th best in the league with a 594%.

MarkovsKnee 04-10-2012 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47702371)
The Blown Leads Story:

As we all know, 2011/12 was about watching the Habs get worse as the game went on. Checking the stats, I found it interesting that in the 1st and 2nd periods we were decent in scoring goals and among the league's best in preventing goals. Then, of course, it all went to hell in the 3rd period. Here's how it played out:

1st Period: We scored 66 goals in the 1st period -- 13th best in the league (Vancouver's #1 with 81 goals). Outscored the opposition 66-60. Allowing 60 GA in the 1st period was 8th best. Not bad.

2nd Period: Still good, we outscored the opposition 74-67. 74 goals was 15th in the league (Philly had 98). In fact, allowing only 67 GA in the 2nd period is 6th best in the league.

3rd Period: Uh-oh... outscored 65-83. Our 65 goals was 22nd in the league; allowing 83 goals was also 22nd in the league.

Because of this 3rd period breakdown we ended up with the worst record in the league when scoring first -- 20-11-10. Brutal. We got the first goal and still lost more than half the time! Strangely, things weren't that different last year, when we outscored our opponents in periods one and two, but were outscored 56-72 in the 3rd. But (and it's a BIG but) in 2010/11 we were 32-6-6 when scoring first.

The Penalty Story:

Yes, we had a great PK, but did you know how often it was tested? The Habs were the second-most shorthanded team in the NHL (315 times); only Philadelphia was shorthanded more often (319 times). On a positive note, we actually killed more penalties than anyone else in the league (279 successful PKs), even though NJ had a better percentage.

We all know our PP was awful, but did you know how incredibly often it had the chance to be awful? We had the 3rd most PPs in the league (301 - behind only Philly and Columbus). We scored 43 PP goals, which means we let 258 PP opportunities slip away. Only Philly (66 goals in 335 PP) and Columbus (49 goals in 317 PP) had more unsuccessful PPs, though both had a better PP%.

So Close

Here's where all those blown PPs made a difference. The Habs' record for one-goal games was 11-10-16. That means 37 games - almost half the season - was decided by one goal. Our winning% of 297% is the worst in the league, by far (Carolina is next at 341%). Contrast this with last year, when the Habs were 19-5-8 in one-goal games, 5th best in the league with a 594%.

The interesting stat for the PP is the fact we drew so many. Our problems the last few years were that we got very few PPs yet had a great PP. This year we had a lot of PPs and our PP sucked. I wonder if there is a correlation there?

I think no one is surprised by the 3rd period collapses. Our D sucked, and collapsed under pressure.

Myron Gaines* 04-10-2012 10:00 PM

It's not about the goal differential, it's about when we scored the goals.

A decent powerplay would've gotten us into the playoffs.

So many games where we could've just ended other teams' hope for a comeback just by scoring one or two goal in the PP.

Lshap 04-11-2012 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForeverAlone (Post 47703963)
It's not about the goal differential, it's about when we scored the goals.

A decent powerplay would've gotten us into the playoffs.

So many games where we could've just ended other teams' hope for a comeback just by scoring one or two goal in the PP.

Goal differential is a pretty good marker when you play so many one-goal games like the Habs do. Even if you don't know WHEN the goals were scored, a few extra goals on the plus-side will tilt enough games from losses to wins, precisely because so many of our games are so close. Our goal differential was +7 in 2010/11, -7 this year, and that net-14 difference was reflected pretty accurately in our final record.

So I'm less concerned about WHEN the goals are scored than I am about WHERE. Obviously there's the miserable PP. We're on the PP more than almost any other team, which is great. As you know, our 14.3% PP was good for only 43 PP goals. Last year's PP% was 19.7%, which would've given us 59 goals this year -- an extra 16 goals. There's our goal-differential shift from last year to this.

So yes, the obvious answer is to just improve our terrible PP and we'll be back to 90-something points. But that masks a deeper problem, which is that we need to improve our 5-on-5 offense and get some forward depth if we're going to advance in the playoffs. Our even-strength scoring was 18th in the league. Last year it was 23rd. I think we've fallen into this trap of blaming the PP for everything and forgetting how important even strength scoring is in the playoffs. Playoffs are more about forward depth and even-strength than the regular season. A good regular season record is nice, but we'll never get close to a Cup if all we have are special teams.

Corncob 04-11-2012 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkovsKnee (Post 47703135)
The interesting stat for the PP is the fact we drew so many. Our problems the last few years were that we got very few PPs yet had a great PP. This year we had a lot of PPs and our PP sucked. I wonder if there is a correlation there?

Other teams commit penalties with impunity because they know we suck at pp?

Kjell Dahlin 04-11-2012 10:09 AM

I need to log off so I will give the OP a longer look later but I just want to mention that "Blown Leads/3rd period woes" are a sign of an inexperienced D squad imo. We badly need to add someone like Barret Jackman.

swimmer77 04-11-2012 10:26 AM

Need a full rebuild.

Lshap 04-11-2012 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kjell Dahlin (Post 47722945)
I need to log off so I will give the OP a longer look later but I just want to mention that "Blown Leads/3rd period woes" are a sign of an inexperienced D squad imo. We badly need to add someone like Barret Jackman.

No argument. But while we're plugging our defensive holes we're still taking on water with our weak scoring. Other teams will be keying on our one good forward line next year - we desperately need to build a strong second line and at least an effective third.

onice 04-11-2012 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47725175)
The Blown Leads Story:

As we all know, 2011/12 was about watching the Habs get worse as the game went on. Checking the stats, I found it interesting that in the 1st and 2nd periods we were decent in scoring goals and among the league's best in preventing goals. Then, of course, it all went to hell in the 3rd period. Here's how it played out:

1st Period: We scored 66 goals in the 1st period -- 13th best in the league (Vancouver's #1 with 81 goals). Outscored the opposition 66-60. Allowing 60 GA in the 1st period was 8th best. Not bad.

2nd Period: Still good, we outscored the opposition 74-67. 74 goals was 15th in the league (Philly had 98). In fact, allowing only 67 GA in the 2nd period is 6th best in the league.

3rd Period: Uh-oh... outscored 65-83. Our 65 goals was 22nd in the league; allowing 83 goals was also 22nd in the league.

Because of this 3rd period breakdown we ended up with the worst record in the league when scoring first -- 20-11-10. Brutal. We got the first goal and still lost more than half the time! Strangely, things weren't that different last year, when we outscored our opponents in periods one and two, but were outscored 56-72 in the 3rd. But (and it's a BIG but) in 2010/11 we were 32-6-6 when scoring first.

The Penalty Story:

Yes, we had a great PK, but did you know how often it was tested? The Habs were the second-most shorthanded team in the NHL (315 times); only Philadelphia was shorthanded more often (319 times). On a positive note, we actually killed more penalties than anyone else in the league (279 successful PKs), even though NJ had a better percentage.

We all know our PP was awful, but did you know how incredibly often it had the chance to be awful? We had the 3rd most PPs in the league (301 - behind only Philly and Columbus). We scored 43 PP goals, which means we let 258 PP opportunities slip away. Only Philly (66 goals in 335 PP) and Columbus (49 goals in 317 PP) had more unsuccessful PPs, though both had a better PP%.

So Close

Here's where all those blown PPs made a difference. The Habs' record for one-goal games was 11-10-16. That means 37 games - almost half the season - was decided by one goal. Our winning% of 297% is the worst in the league, by far (Carolina is next at 341%). Contrast this with last year, when the Habs were 19-5-8 in one-goal games, 5th best in the league with a 594%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47725175)
No argument. But while we're plugging our defensive holes we're still taking on water with our weak scoring. Other teams will be keying on our one good forward line next year - we desperately need to build a strong second line and at least an effective third.

Some very interesting and valuable insights!

Monctonscout 04-11-2012 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47725175)
No argument. But while we're plugging our defensive holes we're still taking on water with our weak scoring. Other teams will be keying on our one good forward line next year - we desperately need to build a strong second line and at least an effective third.

Secondary scoring can definitely be improved upon. Gionta should be healthier and give us more than 8 goals next year. By adding another skill player(Semin Parise or plan B or C or D) will help and should also help Plekanec's totals as well as the PP. Bourque can give us a lot more than he did in the 2nd half. A healthy Markov would also help the PP which was a big loss of offense from 10-11 to 11-12.

With AK gone and by dumping Gomez that frees up around 10 mil to help the 2nd line and 2nd pair.

Bullsmith 04-11-2012 03:08 PM

Nice post. I'd been wondering where we stood in terms of drawing penalties. My sense is we improved in that one element (although not in scoring on the resulting PPs) after JM was canned. Wonder if that's true.

llamateizer 04-11-2012 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swimmer77 (Post 47723771)
Need a full rebuild.

we have a good 1st and 2nd period team:laugh:
only problem is 3rd period

MathMan 04-11-2012 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47702371)
Here's where all those blown PPs made a difference. The Habs' record for one-goal games was 11-10-16. That means 37 games - almost half the season - was decided by one goal. Our winning% of 297% is the worst in the league, by far (Carolina is next at 341%). Contrast this with last year, when the Habs were 19-5-8 in one-goal games, 5th best in the league with a 594%.

Fun fact about one-goal game winning percentage: it is not something that teams have shown themselves to be "good" or "bad" at over time. Teams that are good at it one year can be good, average, or bad at it the next year quite randomly. Winning one-goal game is just not a skill or a talent that teams have.

Combined with the Habs' "net" goal-differential of -2 (trimmed of shootouts and empty-netters) this points to the notion of a team that's very unlikely to repeat as last in the conference next year even if nothing changes. All bets are off if the next GM decides to "blow up the team", "rebuild via draft" or any other form of radical roster changes; but I figure we can expect the next GM to reload the talent sold off by Gauthier.

baldrick 04-11-2012 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47725175)
No argument. But while we're plugging our defensive holes we're still taking on water with our weak scoring. Other teams will be keying on our one good forward line next year - we desperately need to build a strong second line and at least an effective third.

This. Biggest need is a winger for Plekanec/Gionta.

SouthernHab 04-11-2012 08:55 PM

Yet on several threads, there are posts stating that our defense is fine.

Huge disconnect.

Another way to look at this stat is what I posted on the "defense moving forward" thread.

We were 15 - 12 in games where we held the lead after the first period.
We were 24 - 9 in games where we held the lead after the second period.

In both of those stats, only Carolina was worse than Montreal.

For comparison sake.........

the Bruins were 23 - 2 in games where they held the lead after the first period.
The Bruins were 32 - 0 in games where they held the lead after the second period.


Our defense sucks and Diaz, Weber, Campoli and Kaberle need to be playing elsewhere next season.

Lshap 04-11-2012 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MathMan (Post 47743229)
Fun fact about one-goal game winning percentage: it is not something that teams have shown themselves to be "good" or "bad" at over time. Teams that are good at it one year can be good, average, or bad at it the next year quite randomly. Winning one-goal game is just not a skill or a talent that teams have.

Combined with the Habs' "net" goal-differential of -2 (trimmed of shootouts and empty-netters) this points to the notion of a team that's very unlikely to repeat as last in the conference next year even if nothing changes. All bets are off if the next GM decides to "blow up the team", "rebuild via draft" or any other form of radical roster changes; but I figure we can expect the next GM to reload the talent sold off by Gauthier.

You're right, there is a random element to one-goal games. The best one-goal team this past season was Tampa, which obviously didn't translate to their overall record. Furthermore, there was nothing unusual about the number of one-goal games we played -- plenty of other teams had as many or more. We just lost more of them than they did, mostly in OT.

And I'll buy that some of those one-goal losses could become wins next year with nothing more than a goal here and there. I agree we're much better than last. But let's use this year as a wake-up call to acknowledge our weaknesses -- we are very thin on defense and offense. We lose steam as the game goes on because we play the hell out our one forward line and two or three solid defensemen, and have nothing else to throw out there. Combine that lack of talent depth with our youth's lack of experience and it's no surprise we couldn't hold leads. Which, in many cases, ended up as one of those one-goal losses.

MathMan 04-12-2012 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47788565)
And I'll buy that some of those one-goal losses could become wins next year with nothing more than a goal here and there. I agree we're much better than last. But let's use this year as a wake-up call to acknowledge our weaknesses -- we are very thin on defense and offense.

The Habs actually started very deep on offense and about average, if inexperienced, on defense not counting Markov. The problem was that injuries, then Gauthier putting the axe in the team, demolished that depth. Even Kaberle-for-Spacek deprived the team of a reasonably decent #4 5-on-5 D-man that they could ill-afford to lose -- in hindsight, that trade actually made the team's weak spot weaker while trying to address a problem that didn't really need addressing (Kaberle was not going to help with finish on the PP).

But remember: originally Andrei Kostitsyn was supposed to be the Habs' fifth-best winger. Now Bourque is third-best -- or maybe it's Leblanc, because Bourque has been pretty grim.

The next GM will have to do some work to replenish the depth frittered away by Gauthier, but it won't necessarily be that hard, though UFA pickings are a bit slim. Gionta and Markov will be back, which will greatly help. He does need a high-end LW, a Parise or Semin or even Penner, to replace Cammalleri (either by playing Pleks' LW outright, or bumping MaxPac there) and another winger to replace AKost would be nice, assuming Bourque can't do the job (and he has not shown that he can). I suppose there's a chance the 3rd overall pick might slot there, but MTL will probably want to send him back to junior. On defense, he has a really solid top-3 in Subban-Markov-Gorges, and Emelin is going to be more experienced -- an addition would be nice, but he doesn't need a world-beater, ideally he finds a #4 guy but he can probably get away with a bottom-pairing D-man.

Alexdaman 04-12-2012 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lshap (Post 47702371)
The Blown Leads Story:

As we all know, 2011/12 was about watching the Habs get worse as the game went on. Checking the stats, I found it interesting that in the 1st and 2nd periods we were decent in scoring goals and among the league's best in preventing goals. Then, of course, it all went to hell in the 3rd period. Here's how it played out:

1st Period: We scored 66 goals in the 1st period -- 13th best in the league (Vancouver's #1 with 81 goals). Outscored the opposition 66-60. Allowing 60 GA in the 1st period was 8th best. Not bad.

2nd Period: Still good, we outscored the opposition 74-67. 74 goals was 15th in the league (Philly had 98). In fact, allowing only 67 GA in the 2nd period is 6th best in the league.

3rd Period: Uh-oh... outscored 65-83. Our 65 goals was 22nd in the league; allowing 83 goals was also 22nd in the league.

Because of this 3rd period breakdown we ended up with the worst record in the league when scoring first -- 20-11-10. Brutal. We got the first goal and still lost more than half the time! Strangely, things weren't that different last year, when we outscored our opponents in periods one and two, but were outscored 56-72 in the 3rd. But (and it's a BIG but) in 2010/11 we were 32-6-6 when scoring first.

The Penalty Story:

Yes, we had a great PK, but did you know how often it was tested? The Habs were the second-most shorthanded team in the NHL (315 times); only Philadelphia was shorthanded more often (319 times). On a positive note, we actually killed more penalties than anyone else in the league (279 successful PKs), even though NJ had a better percentage.

We all know our PP was awful, but did you know how incredibly often it had the chance to be awful? We had the 3rd most PPs in the league (301 - behind only Philly and Columbus). We scored 43 PP goals, which means we let 258 PP opportunities slip away. Only Philly (66 goals in 335 PP) and Columbus (49 goals in 317 PP) had more unsuccessful PPs, though both had a better PP%.

So Close

Here's where all those blown PPs made a difference. The Habs' record for one-goal games was 11-10-16. That means 37 games - almost half the season - was decided by one goal. Our winning% of 297% is the worst in the league, by far (Carolina is next at 341%). Contrast this with last year, when the Habs were 19-5-8 in one-goal games, 5th best in the league with a 594%.

Best post I've read so far this year... I've even posted it on FB.

Teufelsdreck 04-12-2012 12:19 PM

Retrospective analyses like this tend to be as useless as discarded betting tickets if a team makes major revisions to its management and roster. No DNA is passed down.

Alexdaman 04-12-2012 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck (Post 47822093)
Retrospective analyses like this tend to be as useless as discarded betting tickets if a team makes major revisions to its management and roster. No DNA is passed down.

But it's clear that management and coaching will have to have a different and successful plan for the powerplay.

Halifaxhab 04-12-2012 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baldrick (Post 47761143)
This. Biggest need is a winger for Plekanec/Gionta.

I'd argue our biggest need is defence. with a close 2nd to a 2nd line LW

Someone mentioned Jackman. If he were a UFA in July, I'd be all over him. He'd really shore up the blueline, also Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen, Cory Sarich, Shaone Morrisonn and of course Suter. Any of those guys would help defensively.

As for the LW situation, Shane Doan, Semin, Kostitsyn, all could be available, and would help.


two players added, the Defense will be improved (also thanks to the extra year of development for Emelin/Diaz/Weber/Subban) and the secondary scoring would actually happen because there would be a 2nd line (which we didn't have this year) and the production on the PP HAS to get better, there is no way it could be that awful without some bad luck. Even a marginal % increase of 7% = 22 more PP goals that could have tipped our playoff fortunes around

Alexdaman 04-12-2012 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halifaxhab (Post 47824325)
I'd argue our biggest need is defence. with a close 2nd to a 2nd line LW

Someone mentioned Jackman. If he were a UFA in July, I'd be all over him. He'd really shore up the blueline, also Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen, Cory Sarich, Shaone Morrisonn and of course Suter. Any of those guys would help defensively.

As for the LW situation, Shane Doan, Semin, Kostitsyn, all could be available, and would help.


two players added, the Defense will be improved (also thanks to the extra year of development for Emelin/Diaz/Weber/Subban) and the secondary scoring would actually happen because there would be a 2nd line (which we didn't have this year) and the production on the PP HAS to get better, there is no way it could be that awful without some bad luck. Even a marginal % increase of 7% = 22 more PP goals that could have tipped our playoff fortunes around


:eek:

Teufelsdreck 04-12-2012 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halifaxhab (Post 47824325)
I'd argue our biggest need is defence. with a close 2nd to a 2nd line LW

Someone mentioned Jackman. If he were a UFA in July, I'd be all over him. He'd really shore up the blueline, also Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen, Cory Sarich, Shaone Morrisonn and of course Suter. Any of those guys would help defensively.

As for the LW situation, Shane Doan, Semin, Kostitsyn, all could be available, and would help.


two players added, the Defense will be improved (also thanks to the extra year of development for Emelin/Diaz/Weber/Subban) and the secondary scoring would actually happen because there would be a 2nd line (which we didn't have this year) and the production on the PP HAS to get better, there is no way it could be that awful without some bad luck. Even a marginal % increase of 7% = 22 more PP goals that could have tipped our playoff fortunes around

Many posters don't want an extra year of development for Weber (AKA Woe-ber), at least not on the Habs. We've seen his defensive limitations and he's not that great on what was supposed to be his forte, the power play. Every time we see him on the point we cross our fingers. Every time a defending forward sees him there he salivates.

Halifaxhab 04-12-2012 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexdaman (Post 47825925)
:eek:

:laugh: that's why I put him in there.

Halifaxhab 04-12-2012 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck (Post 47832741)
Many posters don't want an extra year of development for Weber (AKA Woe-ber), at least not on the Habs. We've seen his defensive limitations and he's not that great on what was supposed to be his forte, the power play. Every time we see him on the point we cross our fingers. Every time a defending forward sees him there he salivates.

many posters may not want that, but does the new GM? If not he can be used as trade bait for a similarly youngish forward or a pick. More importantly, we buy time for Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Dietz, Pateryn, Nash, Mitera (who could be a call-up this coming season), etc.


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