HFBoards

HFBoards (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/index.php)
-   Tampa Bay Lightning (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=27)
-   -   Speculation: Ryan Suter (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1186051)

LightningStrikes 05-08-2012 04:01 AM

Ryan Suter
 
Alright, let's talk Ryan Suter. He's the biggest fish in this year's free agent pool and 20+ teams will be trying to sign him come July when he'll become an unrestricted free agent. He'll want a longterm deal, big money and to be playing for a contender. I saw in the rosterbation thread that many of you have him on your desired rosters. But realistically, can we match his demands and other teams' offers? How good are our chances of landing him? Does he fit salary cap-wise?

We're arguably just a few pieces away from being a playoff or even Cup contender again: Obviously a #1 goalie (see other thread(s)) and one or two defensemen. So, contender - check.

He deserves a big salary as he's one of the best defensemen in the game. At age 27 he's got a lot of good years ahead of him. So what's a realistic annual salary number for him for the next few years? And after that? Cap circumvention? What role will the new CBA play? With Vinny's and Stammer's big contracts can or should we even match other teams' offers?

HoseEmDown 05-08-2012 05:50 AM

Before their unexpected loss to Phoenix I thought for sure he'd resign, maybe he changed his mind. We can afford him if we make some tweaks but I don't see the point unless we move Brewer. We have too many LHD already, I think we need a RHD to compliment Hedman and slide Brewer to 2nd pair. Their isn't really any good RHD in UFA so would have to trade for one. It doesn't hurt to at least attempt to gauge his interest.

The YzerJesus 05-08-2012 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoseEmDown (Post 49429587)
Before their unexpected loss to Phoenix I thought for sure he'd resign, maybe he changed his mind. We can afford him if we make some tweaks but I don't see the point unless we move Brewer. We have too many LHD already, I think we need a RHD to compliment Hedman and slide Brewer to 2nd pair. Their isn't really any good RHD in UFA so would have to trade for one. It doesn't hurt to at least attempt to gauge his interest.

My thoughts exactly. Honestly, I really hope we do, but it's unlikely. Suter wants to win. Teams like Detroit will want to have him, plus other top tier teams. We are not a top tier team unfortunately. Unless he realizes, like us, this team is 1 or 2 defensemen and a goalie away from being a cup contender, I don't think we will get him.

This is all assuming he doesn't sign back with Nashville too. Nashville is a great team in and of itself. He may take a pay cut to stay there. Or he can get paid more to be on another top team.

The Fear Boners 05-08-2012 11:14 AM

As long as we're willing to open the wallet, we have as good of a shot as anyone.

I also dont buy into the "too many LHD" stuff either - when you can add a defender of his caliber, you do it.

PoundCake 05-08-2012 01:54 PM

For fun, I did a roster mock up with him included.
(It has the nice benefit of not requiring a single trade, so we still get to keep all of our picks.)
I bolded the new players.

FORWARDS
Brett Connolly ($1.633m) / Steven Stamkos ($7.500m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Ryan Malone ($4.500m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($7.727m) / Teddy Purcell ($2.363m)
Alexander Killorn ($0.875m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / J.T. Brown ($1.350m)
Tom Pyatt ($0.600m) / Nate Thompson ($0.900m) / Dana Tyrell ($0.600m)
Adam Hall ($0.600m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Victor Hedman ($4.000m) / Ryan Suter ($7.000m)
Eric Brewer ($3.875m) / Brian Lee ($0.971m)
Keith Aulie ($0.800m) / Brendan Mikkelson ($0.800m)
Marc-Andre Bergeron ($1.000m) / Evan Oberg ($0.827m)

GOALTENDERS
Tomas Vokoun ($3.500m)
Mathieu Garon ($1.300m)

BUYOUTS
Vinny Prospal ($1.167m)
------
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,012,898; BONUSES: $1,600,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $3,287,102

We can ice a good team with Suter on it next year, but I think long term it might wind up being a bad idea.

If Suter leaves Nashville, I don't think it will be for any less than 7mil per year. His contract will also be a long one.

What happens in the next few years when it comes time to give raises to Brown/Purcell/Connolly/#4 Dman/#1 Goalie? We'll still have Lecavalier/Stamkos/Suter/St.Louis/Malone on big contracts. Not to mention if Hedman pans out to be the player he's expected to be, his next contract will probably be similar to Suter's.

I don't think Suter in Tampa is going to work out.

PoundCake 05-08-2012 02:24 PM

I thought I would add...

Instead of signing Suter to a long term, big money, contract. Why not pursue Dan Boyle instead?

Boyle: 2yrs left at 6.6mil
Suter: ~7yrs at ~7mil

Boyle is still an elite defenseman. I'm willing to bet that the difference between Suter and Boyle for the next 2 years won't be all that much. Once Boyle's contract is up, it's very likely his next contract will be more affordable. Some type of front loaded contract with a cap hit of ~5mil(or less) for 4 yrs?

Take into account that this year's draft is very top heavy with defensemen. I'll just assume we draft Morgan Rielly. Right as Rielly is ready to step into a top4 role is when Boyle's contract will be up. Once it's time to pay Rielly big money, Boyle will be either retired or close to it. Is there a better veteran defenseman for our young guys to learn from than Boyle?

So the top4 could look like:

next 2 yrs:
Hedman(4mil) - Boyle(6.6mil)
Brewer(3.8mil) - Lee/Rielly(~1mil)

after 2 yrs:
Hedman(4mil) - Rielly(~1mil)
Brewer/Aulie(3.8mil) - Boyle(5mil)

6yrs: (obviously a lot of guessing here)
Hedman(6.5mil) - Rielly(4mil)
Aulie(3.8mil) - Barberio(3mil)


Edit: Of course the problem with this is... How do we get San Jose to give us Boyle?

HoseEmDown 05-08-2012 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoundCake (Post 49444061)
For fun, I did a roster mock up with him included.
(It has the nice benefit of not requiring a single trade, so we still get to keep all of our picks.)
I bolded the new players.

FORWARDS
Brett Connolly ($1.633m) / Steven Stamkos ($7.500m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Ryan Malone ($4.500m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($7.727m) / Teddy Purcell ($2.363m)
Alexander Killorn ($0.875m) / Dominic Moore ($1.500m) / J.T. Brown ($1.350m)
Tom Pyatt ($0.600m) / Nate Thompson ($0.900m) / Dana Tyrell ($0.600m)
Adam Hall ($0.600m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Victor Hedman ($4.000m) / Ryan Suter ($7.000m)
Eric Brewer ($3.875m) / Brian Lee ($0.971m)
Keith Aulie ($0.800m) / Brendan Mikkelson ($0.800m)
Marc-Andre Bergeron ($1.000m) / Evan Oberg ($0.827m)

GOALTENDERS
Tomas Vokoun ($3.500m)
Mathieu Garon ($1.300m)

BUYOUTS
Vinny Prospal ($1.167m)
------
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,012,898; BONUSES: $1,600,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $3,287,102

We can ice a good team with Suter on it next year, but I think long term it might wind up being a bad idea.

If Suter leaves Nashville, I don't think it will be for any less than 7mil per year. His contract will also be a long one.

What happens in the next few years when it comes time to give raises to Brown/Purcell/Connolly/#4 Dman/#1 Goalie? We'll still have Lecavalier/Stamkos/Suter/St.Louis/Malone on big contracts. Not to mention if Hedman pans out to be the player he's expected to be, his next contract will probably be similar to Suter's.

I don't think Suter in Tampa is going to work out.

I like it, not many changes to a good team that only needs minor tweaks. I'd change Hall for Wallace if we get Moore. Is Ohlund retired and off the books completely towards cap space? I don't like having 3 players making over 7 mil either, but aside from Purcell I don't see the others getting that big of raises unless they tear the league apart. When Hedman is due for a raise, Brewer/MSL/Malone all will be up too and not coming back or for less. I'd rather Suter at 7-8 than Wideman 4.5 + another 4/5 guy at 3 mil.

2 Weekes Notice 05-08-2012 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoundCake (Post 49445519)
I thought I would add...

Instead of signing Suter to a long term, big money, contract. Why not pursue Dan Boyle instead?

Boyle: 2yrs left at 6.6mil
Suter: ~7yrs at ~7mil

Boyle is still an elite defenseman. I'm willing to bet that the difference between Suter and Boyle for the next 2 years won't be all that much. Once Boyle's contract is up, it's very likely his next contract will be more affordable. Some type of front loaded contract with a cap hit of ~5mil(or less) for 4 yrs?

Take into account that this year's draft is very top heavy with defensemen. I'll just assume we draft Morgan Rielly. Right as Rielly is ready to step into a top4 role is when Boyle's contract will be up. Once it's time to pay Rielly big money, Boyle will be either retired or close to it. Is there a better veteran defenseman for our young guys to learn from than Boyle?

So the top4 could look like:

next 2 yrs:
Hedman(4mil) - Boyle(6.6mil)
Brewer(3.8mil) - Lee/Rielly(~1mil)

after 2 yrs:
Hedman(4mil) - Rielly(~1mil)
Brewer/Aulie(3.8mil) - Boyle(5mil)

6yrs: (obviously a lot of guessing here)
Hedman(6.5mil) - Rielly(4mil)
Aulie(3.8mil) - Barberio(3mil)


Edit: Of course the problem with this is... How do we get San Jose to give us Boyle?

Not a bad idea at all. Helping out is the fact that San Jose has utterly nothing coming up the pipelines at the moment, and we have quite our share of forward prospects and picks.

That said, I don't know if San Jose management is going to try to push all in one last time with their current group. If they do, I think it'll put them in purgatory for quite some time. Makes sense for them to try to bag some future help while Marleau/Jumbo/Boyle still have some trade value, but hey, this isn't the Sharks board I suppose :)

HoseEmDown 05-08-2012 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2 Weekes Notice (Post 49446159)
Not a bad idea at all. Helping out is the fact that San Jose has utterly nothing coming up the pipelines at the moment, and we have quite our share of forward prospects and picks.

That said, I don't know if San Jose management is going to try to push all in one last time with their current group. If they do, I think it'll put them in purgatory for quite some time. Makes sense for them to try to bag some future help while Marleau/Jumbo/Boyle still have some trade value, but hey, this isn't the Sharks board I suppose :)

Trading young assets or picks for a mid 30's D on his cap hit isn't good. Yes he was great when he was here but the cost to reaquire wouldn't be worth it.

PoundCake 05-08-2012 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HoseEmDown (Post 49447581)
Trading young assets or picks for a mid 30's D on his cap hit isn't good. Yes he was great when he was here but the cost to reaquire wouldn't be worth it.

Well, he only has that cap hit for 2 more years. He can still be a #1 for at least that long. Would be better long term than Suter(as explained in my previous post), and about the same short term.

I agree that young assets for old players is not ideal. If the young assets we give up though are something we have plenty of (forward prospects/2nd round picks), then it might be worth it.

We could also get the UFA rights to Moore thrown in to the Trade too :naughty::D

HoseEmDown 05-08-2012 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoundCake (Post 49448673)
Well, he only has that cap hit for 2 more years. He can still be a #1 for at least that long. Would be better long term than Suter(as explained in my previous post), and about the same short term.

I agree that young assets for old players is not ideal. If the young assets we give up though are something we have plenty of (forward prospects/2nd round picks), then it might be worth it.

We could also get the UFA rights to Moore thrown in to the Trade too :naughty::D

I know we have some aging players but we aren't in a win now mode. Trades like that will make us like SJ a good team with some nice players that are older but not a legit contender. We need to stay the course and only make moves were we aren't overpaying like the Brewer trade. We really aren't that far away from being contenders again, we need a few minor pieces.

Glide5 05-08-2012 11:35 PM

Funny thing is that I was looking at Suter today too as a possible fit. While he is a great player and all, the big money contract he will fetch just may not be possible for the bolts right now. If Brewer were to be moved, then I would say go for Suter right now at the 6-7 mil he will garner. Even that sounds like a lot for one player though haha.

MrMcGz 05-09-2012 08:25 AM

Dream FA signing although I don't think we can ultimately afford 3 $7+ mil contracts. I think if Nashville doesn't resign him he'll most likely end up in Detroit as Lidstrom's heir apparent.

Drouin2Stamkos 05-09-2012 01:40 PM

Im not sure if SFY will give him the big money unless he really feels that he would come in here and make a huge difference for us. I mean you have to look at it like if you sign Suter is he gonna make you an instant contender? Is the cost too much for the reward? Can you sign a few smaller name guys and get similar results? I cant wait to find out what the plan is.

Doctor Drej 05-09-2012 02:32 PM

Suter feels like a pipe dream to me. I think we'll get someone like Cola, Carle or Stuart.

The YzerJesus 05-09-2012 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Pyatt (Post 49498773)
Suter feels like a pipe dream to me. I think we'll get someone like Cola, Carle or Stuart.

This kind of Cola?

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...Pu_wb0rIO38VCQ

kisin 05-09-2012 03:47 PM

Stuart will likely sign in California as he wants to spend more time with his family. Beside this, his game is similar to Brewer's and Aulie's so I don't see any connection there...

Cola is injury prone and played awful late in the play-offs.

PoundCake 05-09-2012 04:28 PM

So we are all in an agreement, Suter is very likely NOT coming to Tampa?

I think Paul Martin might be a likely option. Pitt needs cap space, he's their highest paid dman, and doesn't even fit their system. We might be able to get him in a Simon Gagne like trade. His cap hit is a bit high, but he fits Boucher's system perfectly.

HoseEmDown 05-09-2012 04:30 PM

I think we'll end up getting Garrison, we seem to like former panther D (Boyle, Clark).

Rschmitz 05-09-2012 11:39 PM

Suter would be a great pick up, obviously. He isn't somebody I would empty out the vault for though.

Weber on the other hand, I would go all in to get him if he makes it to UFA.

LightningStrikes 05-11-2012 01:44 AM

Quote:

Ryan Suter expects to 'kind of make' decision in 2 weeks.
Quote:

"Wherever I sign, I want to be there for the rest of my career," he said, "and that affects my family, my wife, my kid, if we have more kids … everything plays into it."
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=631227


Also, from the main board:

Quote:

Originally Posted by KovalSNIPE (Post 49566493)
I don't know how reliable he is, but Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province said there are claims that "Ryan Suter is set to leave, and many people believe he will. Those around his situation claim he has a list of teams he wants to play for and Nashville isn’t on it."


kisin 05-11-2012 03:51 AM

SFY has to do some magic...

MrMcGz 05-11-2012 09:31 AM

13 yr deal. 5 mil cap hit...

HedMonster 77 05-11-2012 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrMcGz (Post 49571959)
13 yr deal. 5 mil cap hit...

how about 7-8 years 5.5mil. cap hit

The Fear Boners 05-11-2012 09:45 AM

Let me guess, Vancouver is on the "list" for him, right


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:14 AM.

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com, A property of CraveOnline, a division of AtomicOnline LLC ©2009 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.