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Guest 06-22-2012 09:55 AM

Coyotes drafting history
 
With the draft coming up I was just looking through some of the past drafts to see if there were any years that the Coyotes did really good or really bad. As we all know there have been many more really bad years than good.

Using 40 games played per year since their draft as a marker the following players seemed to be decent picks:

1996: Briere
2001: Sjostrom
2004: Wheeler & Winnik
2005: Hanzal & Yandle
2006: Mueller
2008: Boedker
2009: Ekman-Larsson

Honorable mention go to: Letowski (1996), Vaananen (1998), Eager (2002), and Turris (2007) who averaged just under 40 games a year every year since their draft.

Out of 9 draft picks from 2003, none of them have played a game in the NHL. That's a killer. Out of 9 picks in 1999 only 48 NHL games were played by those selections.

Other than OEL, we have not seen a single draft pick in the past 3 years play a game in the NHL.

If you had to pick someone from our 2010 draft to be a regular player I am sure we are all hoping it's Gormley. With only 5 picks that year we'd be lucky to strike gold on that pick to otherwise save that draft year. Visentin is another guy that would be nice to see develop and is the only other guy from that draft that we even have under contract I believe.

They always say to judge a draft after 5 years. Our 2007 draft as a whole has been largely a bust. Turris with the top pick was decent, but we know how that turned out. Ross & MacLean are likely done. Gistedt, Ruzicka, Goncharov, and Darling are definitely done.

Coyote_Fan 06-22-2012 01:24 PM

This is our legacy. The same crap the Cardinals went through for years. Terrible drafting. Maybe the Coyotes should just continually trade their picks off for players and already established prospects? Hopefully the first thing the new Ownership does (if that happens) is fire the scouting department and hire proven people.

Also, is the the drafting poor talent or the crappy coaching at the minor levels?

mitch27 06-22-2012 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coyote_Fan (Post 51253119)
This is our legacy. The same crap the Cardinals went through for years. Terrible drafting. Maybe the Coyotes should just continually trade their picks off for players and already established prospects? Hopefully the first thing the new Ownership does (if that happens) is fire the scouting department and hire proven people.

Also, is the the drafting poor talent or the crappy coaching at the minor levels?

Didn't we just have a scouting staff overhaul?

PhoPhan 06-22-2012 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mitch27 (Post 51254551)
Didn't we just have a scouting staff overhaul?

We did, and we're several staffs removed from the staffs that took Dan Focht and Scott Kelman in the first round.

mouser 06-22-2012 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhoPhan (Post 51254809)
We did, and we're several staffs removed from the staffs that took Dan Focht and Scott Kelman in the first round.

You left out Jakub Koreis

PhoPhan 06-22-2012 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouser (Post 51257633)
You left out Jakub Koreis

If memory serves, that was a different staff from those two and I think Keith Gretzky was around for that one (though not the head scout). I could be wrong on that one though.

Guest 06-22-2012 03:42 PM

2004-2005 were very good, 4 players those two years, but even since then we haven't seen 2 or more players come out of a single draft. In my book you need at least 1 NHL player out of EVERY draft, if not more than 1. The Coyotes will not be a true contender until this is happening because you need those young assets to be able to trade for upgrades. Guys like Boedker are probably our best potential offensive guy and he could turn out to be Sjostrom 2.0. I'm sure there are not teams lining up to even get Boedker if he was available.

Assuming Turris joins the ranks above to give us someone from 2007 it shows that we've been able to get at least 1 NHL player from every draft 2004-2009, and 2010 will probably produce Gormley. Murphy probably would be the safe pick for 2011.

The other problem is with the exception of Winnik, only 1st rounders have panned out for the Coyotes. There is clearly a lack of identifying talent past the first round when the guys are most obvious. I guess at least the 1st rounders are panning out since 2004, but if we could add just one other successful pick every other year to make up for the occasional bust. In 16 years the Coyotes have 9 players, so just about 1 player every other draft.

Using the same standard (40 games or more for every year since their draft) comparing to the other teams in our division during the same time span:
Coyotes (9)...
Dallas (10): Morrow (1997), Miettinen & Ott (2000), J Jokinen (2001), Daley (2002), Eriksson (2003), Grossman (2004), Niskanen & Neal (2005), Benn (2007)
Anaheim (11): Cullen & Salei (1996), Leopold & Havelid (1999), Lupul (2002), Getlaf-Perry-O'Brien (2003), Smid (2004), Ryan (2005), Fowler (2010)
Los Angeles (14): E Belanger (1996), O Jokinen & Corvo (1997), F Kaberle (1999), Frolov-Lilja-Visnovsky (2000), Cammalleri (2001), Brown (2003), Kopitar & Quick (2005), Simmonds (2007), Doughty (2008), Clifford (2009)
San Jose (15): Sturm & Bradley (1996), Marleau & Hannan (1997), Stuart & Samuelsson (1998), Goc & Ehrhoff (2001), Michalek-S Bernier-Carle-Pavelski (2003), Setoguchi & Vlasic (2005), Demers (2008)

By comparison LA & SJ are almost averaging a player every draft.

The big difference is that most of all of those teams had many of their picks past the first round. LA & SJ have had a number of drafts where they picked up 2+ guys. Our drafting is more comparable to Dallas & Anaheim (in our division at least). It's no coincidence that SJ has been a contender for years and LA won the Cup this year and looks to be a contender for years to come.

mouser 06-22-2012 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guest (Post 51265003)
The other problem is with the exception of Winnik, only 1st rounders have panned out for the Coyotes. There is clearly a lack of identifying talent past the first round when the guys are most obvious. I guess at least the 1st rounders are panning out since 2004, but if we could add just one other successful pick every year this team would be a contender in no time.

Yandle :)

Guest 06-22-2012 04:27 PM

Here's a comparison of the past Cup winners:

Bruins (11): Thornton & Samsonov (1997), Boynton (1999), Morrisonn (2001), Bergeron & Stuart (2003), Krejci & Versteeg (2004), Kessel & Lucic (2006), Seguin (2010)
Hawks (9) : Cleary (1997), Ruutu (2001), Keith (2002), Seabrook & Byfuglien (2003), Brouwer (2004), Hjalmarsson (2005), Toews (2006), Kane (2007)
Penguins (14): Rozsival (1996), A Ference (1997), Kostopoulos & Malone (1999), Orpik (2000), Armstrong (2001), R Whitney & Talbot (2002), Fleury (2003), Malkin & Kennedy (2004), Crosby & Letang (2005), Staal (2006)
Red Wings (6): Datsyuk (1998), Zetterberg (1999), Krownwall (2000), Hudler & Flippula (2002), Franzen (2004)

The Bruins had a number of years of picking 2 guys in a draft, again some of those picks outside the first round. The Hawks went on a tear 2001-2007 drafting guys every single year. The Penguins went on an even bigger tear 1999-2006 (notice how that range is just before the Hawks run of 2001-2007?). The Wings drafting from 1998-2002 made a huge difference but they haven't done much in recent years and are probably prime for a huge letdown.

1998-2002 drafting led to a Cup in 2008
1999-2006 drafting led to a Cup in 2009
2001-2007 drafting led to a Cup in 2010
2003-2006 drafting led to a Cup in 2011
1996-2008 drafting led to a Cup in 2012

Guest 06-22-2012 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mouser (Post 51266791)
Yandle :)

Got me there! Still, it's less common as a whole when only 2 picks in the past 16 years out of the first round panned out.

DirtyOldMan 06-23-2012 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guest (Post 51268407)
Here's a comparison of the past Cup winners:

...

1998-2002 drafting led to a Cup in 2008
1999-2006 drafting led to a Cup in 2009
2001-2007 drafting led to a Cup in 2010
2003-2006 drafting led to a Cup in 2011
1996-2008 drafting led to a Cup in 2012

And what did 4 of those 5 teams have in common? They were awful for years getting those pieces (just like us!)

Gwyddbwyll 06-23-2012 01:28 PM

The Coyotes are actually middle of the pack when it comes to drafting. I did a study a few years ago of 15 years of drafting and they were about 14th. The key seemed to be more around development.

San Jose were top. They are about the best in the league (along with Montreal, New Jersey and Colorado). LA looks like it's on way there too.

Its interesting to see more ex-draftees playing for other teams. Zeiler, Ferriero, Callahan, Porter, Kolarik, Winnik, LeNeveu etc.. guys who struggled to crack our line-up. That wasnt the case a few years ago and is an indication of improving strength in depth. Two of them played for LA and San Jose which you wouldnt have expected.


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