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Hero 06-25-2012 04:35 PM

HeroStats - JVR In-depth future scoring analysis
 

I've seen a lot of people posting JVR stats and missing important pieces, so I thought I'd just put up one thread with a very complete and fair analysis of what he has done and can do.

JVR is so far a 20 goal guy

Some people have posted his stats, and his progression.

09/10 - 15 goals 35 points / 16 goals 37 points 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 21 goals 40 points / 23 goals 44 points 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 11 goals 24 points / 21 goals 46 points 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In his three season, JVR hasn't exactly progressed a lot. When you look at those goal totals and point totals, he has been pretty consistent, so I don't think we should him to suddenly improve or regress. If still in Philly, with the same line mates and same opportunity he'd be scoring 20 goals, most probably.

But, as some posters may have missed. JVR won't be in the same opportunity, or with the same players.

JVR has been given 3rd lines minutes, and little PP time

09/10 - 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In each season he has been stuck playing very limited minutes.

09/10 - 1:24 PP/Game, 12:57 TOI/Game

He was stuck behind the likes of Richards, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, Briere, Hartnell, Leino. And we can safely assume he was the teams 3rd line winger.

10/11 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

It seemed the lines stayed the same. Giroux, Richards, Briere, Carter, Versteeg, Hartnell, Leino were all ahead of him. So same club but Versteeg stepped in and took minutes from him as well.

11/12 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

This season a lot of bodies moved out but he was still stuck behind in avg minutes some other guys. Giroux, Hartnell, Briere, Read, Jagr, Voracek, Talbot, Simmonds. So really didn't benefit from Carter and Richards leaving.

JVR has been playing with talented line mates

10/11 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - ANDREAS NODL - 5.39%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - CLAUDE GIROUX - 4.23%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - KRIS VERSTEEG - 3.43%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.97%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.02%

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A

We can see JVR always had one of Richards/Carter/Giroux as his C in his 10/11 season. Which is a calibre of C we don't have on our team.

11/12 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - DANNY BRIERE - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 2.51%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MAXIME TALBOT - JAKUB VORACEK - 2.09%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 1.72%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - JAROMIR JAGR - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - JAKUB VORACEK - 1.14%

So we can see in this season his quality of line mates did decrease a bit. He stil had a fair bit of time with Briere and enjoyed minutes on the top line with Giroux and Jagr occasionally. So one sign of progress is he maintained his stats, with weaker line mates.

JVR is below average physically, and is average defensively

09/10 Season

78 Games
37 Hits (This is soft, but he improves in this after this season)
21 Blocked Shots (Not bad relatively speaking)
16 Give Aways 29 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
-1 (8th of 19 forwards but to be fair top three were +7, +5, +2)

10/11 Season

75 Games
107 Hits (Better than Richards, Worse than Giroux/Hartnell/Grinders)
25 Blocked Shots (One of the worst on the team)
16 Give Aways 27 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
+15 (4th out of 16 forwards)

11/12 Season

43 Games
37 Hits (Just Below Average)
18 Blocked Shots (Just Above Average)
8 Give Aways 17 Take Aways (Pro rated, one of the better rates on the club)
-1 (12th of 17 forwards)

He needs series practise in the dot if he ever wants to play C again.
He's only taken 5 face-offs in 3 years.

So I doubt he takes on much more PK time or suddenly begins trucking people just because. Philly has always been a physical team, leafs not so. Leafs do have a more physical minded coach now though, so it just be a wash over all.

Side Note - SH%

09/10 8.7%
10/11 12.1%
11/12 9.1%

He hasn't exactly been improving his shot, or at least no pattern is there his shooting percentage has been up and down, so another variable we can't assume anything around.

Changes to expect

Increased Minutes

JVR's Goals/Minute & Points/Minute over the past three years

15/1010 minutes = 0.0148514851
21/1090 minutes = 0.019266055
11/652 minutes = 0.0168711656

Over the last two year, you can average that out to approx. 0.0180686103 goals/min

If you assume JVR plays 2nd line minutes with Grabo and Kulie who played 17:36 a game and 15:13 a game, then go with an average of 16:00 a game.

16:00 min/game x 82 games x 0.0180686103 goals/min = 24 goals

This changing variable here though, is his line mates, and his PP time.

Briere/Schenn - Simmonds/Voracek vs Grabovski - Kulemin

His PP time will approximately double if he's on the 2nd PP unit.

So this part is hard to put exact numbers to. The talent line of his line mates won't make a huge difference. Kulemin did have an off year but over all it isn't a stretch to say he has the same capacity as Simmonds/Voracek, maybe a little less. Then Briere/Schenn are comparable to Grabovski, with Grabo probably having the edge on Schenn but not Briere. So comparable or a slight downgrade.

The extra PP time we can assume will take on 4-5 goals. With the drop in line mates, we can play on the safer side and tack on 3 goals to his totals. But in Philly he was more sheltered than he will be in Toronto, with JVR he'll be playing ES against opposing Malkins/Crosbys/Kopitar if he sticks with Grabo and Kulie. I think that will be a wash for the benefits of extra PP time.

But again this depend a lot on what the extra PP time will or won't do for him. Philly and Toronto have had comparable PP%'s the last few years as well, so that won't be a factor either.

Finale Analysis

25 goals
50 points
Playing on the 2nd line
Paired against opposing players top forwards
Playing 2nd Power Play
Playing almost no Short Handed time

BillyD 06-25-2012 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hero (Post 51513807)
I've seen a lot of people posting JVR stats and missing important pieces, so I thought I'd just put up one thread with a very complete and fair analysis of what he has done and can do.

JVR is so far a 20 goal guy

Some people have posted his stats, and his progression.

09/10 - 15 goals 35 points / 16 goals 37 points 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 21 goals 40 points / 23 goals 44 points 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 11 goals 24 points / 21 goals 46 points 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In his three season, JVR hasn't exactly progressed a lot. When you look at those goal totals and point totals, he has been pretty consistent, so I don't think we should him to suddenly improve or regress. If still in Philly, with the same line mates and same opportunity he'd be scoring 20 goals, most probably.

But, as some posters may have missed. JVR won't be in the same opportunity, or with the same players.

JVR has been given 3rd lines minutes, and little PP time

09/10 - 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In each season he has been stuck playing very limited minutes.

09/10 - 1:24 PP/Game, 12:57 TOI/Game

He was stuck behind the likes of Richards, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, Briere, Hartnell, Leino. And we can safely assume he was the teams 3rd line winger.

10/11 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

It seemed the lines stayed the same. Giroux, Richards, Briere, Carter, Versteeg, Hartnell, Leino were all ahead of him. So same club but Versteeg stepped in and took minutes from him as well.

11/12 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

This season a lot of bodies moved out but he was still stuck behind in avg minutes some other guys. Giroux, Hartnell, Briere, Read, Jagr, Voracek, Talbot, Simmonds. So really didn't benefit from Carter and Richards leaving.

JVR has been playing with talented line mates

10/11 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - ANDREAS NODL - 5.39%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - CLAUDE GIROUX - 4.23%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - KRIS VERSTEEG - 3.43%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.97%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.02%

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A

We can see JVR always had one of Richards/Carter/Giroux as his C in his 10/11 season. Which is a calibre of C we don't have on our team.

11/12 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - DANNY BRIERE - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 2.51%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MAXIME TALBOT - JAKUB VORACEK - 2.09%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 1.72%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - JAROMIR JAGR - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - JAKUB VORACEK - 1.14%

So we can see in this season his quality of line mates did decrease a bit. He stil had a fair bit of time with Briere and enjoyed minutes on the top line with Giroux and Jagr occasionally. So one sign of progress is he maintained his stats, with weaker line mates.

JVR is below average physically, and is average defensively

09/10 Season

78 Games
37 Hits (This is soft, but he improves in this after this season)
21 Blocked Shots (Not bad relatively speaking)
16 Give Aways 29 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
-1 (8th of 19 forwards but to be fair top three were +7, +5, +2)

10/11 Season

75 Games
107 Hits (Better than Richards, Worse than Giroux/Hartnell/Grinders)
25 Blocked Shots (One of the worst on the team)
16 Give Aways 27 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
+15 (4th out of 16 forwards)

11/12 Season

43 Games
37 Hits (Just Below Average)
18 Blocked Shots (Just Above Average)
8 Give Aways 17 Take Aways (Pro rated, one of the better rates on the club)
-1 (12th of 17 forwards)

He needs series practise in the dot if he ever wants to play C again.
He's only taken 5 face-offs in 3 years.

So I doubt he takes on much more PK time or suddenly begins trucking people just because. Philly has always been a physical team, leafs not so. Leafs do have a more physical minded coach now though, so it just be a wash over all.

Side Note - SH%

09/10 8.7%
10/11 12.1%
11/12 9.1%

He hasn't exactly been improving his shot, or at least no pattern is there his shooting percentage has been up and down, so another variable we can't assume anything around.

Changes to expect

Increased Minutes

JVR's Goals/Minute & Points/Minute over the past three years

15/1010 minutes = 0.0148514851
21/1090 minutes = 0.019266055
11/652 minutes = 0.0168711656

Over the last two year, you can average that out to approx. 0.0180686103 goals/min

If you assume JVR plays 2nd line minutes with Grabo and Kulie who played 17:36 a game and 15:13 a game, then go with an average of 16:00 a game.

16:00 min/game x 82 games x 0.0180686103 goals/min = 24 goals

This changing variable here though, is his line mates, and his PP time.

Briere/Schenn - Simmonds/Voracek vs Grabovski - Kulemin

His PP time will approximately double if he's on the 2nd PP unit.

So this part is hard to put exact numbers to. The talent line of his line mates won't make a huge difference. Kulemin did have an off year but over all it isn't a stretch to say he has the same capacity as Simmonds/Voracek, maybe a little less. Then Briere/Schenn are comparable to Grabovski, with Grabo probably having the edge on Schenn but not Briere. So comparable or a slight downgrade.

The extra PP time we can assume will take on 4-5 goals. With the drop in line mates, we can play on the safer side and tack on 3 goals to his totals. But in Philly he was more sheltered than he will be in Toronto, with JVR he'll be playing ES against opposing Malkins/Crosbys/Kopitar if he sticks with Grabo and Kulie. I think that will be a wash for the benefits of extra PP time.

But again this depend a lot on what the extra PP time will or won't do for him. Philly and Toronto have had comparable PP%'s the last few years as well, so that won't be a factor either.

Finale Analysis

25 goals
50 points
Playing on the 2nd line
Paired against opposing players top forwards
Playing 2nd Power Play
Playing almost no Short Handed time

i like

also should factor in carlyle likely to play more defensive system than laviolette,

but i read an analysis years ago that yr 3 is typically a break out season for many players and arguably jvr didnt get a fair shot with his injuries etc, so maybe a chance he breaks out here instead in yr 4

but provided he stays healthy we should see progression in his offensive numbers and this should be a good pick up

MattVenca 06-25-2012 04:52 PM

Intense bro.

calcal798 06-25-2012 04:56 PM

Well done. I also looked at the great playoff run he had the one year. He increased playing time from 15 mins to 19 mins and increased points ppg and ppm then. Proving that with increased chance he'd definitely get a higher total.

Liminality 06-25-2012 05:05 PM

He seems like a great fit for the 2nd line. JVR-Grabo-Kulemin/MacArthur/Frattin/Kadri?
Imo I'd like to see a JVR-Grabo-Frattin line. If that doesn't work then JVR-Grabo-Kulemin

I think the 25 goal, 50 points projection is right where he should be right now.

dballislife2 06-25-2012 05:08 PM

a lil too intense for me i just read the bolded stuff

Leafmon1 06-25-2012 05:13 PM

wowsa - live long and prosper, dude! seriously tho, interesting info- thx!

MiniMoose 06-25-2012 05:20 PM

excellent analysis brother

Grant 06-25-2012 05:31 PM

Just thought I would add this in case people didn't know.

JVR had 16 points (8 goals) in the first 21 games of this season (missed one game with a lower body injury) before getting an upper body injury where he missed 4 games. A -2 in those games if my math is correct.

Coming back from that injury, he got 6 points in 17 games, +1 in those games. Then he got a concussion where he missed 15 games.

After the concussion, he got 2 points in 6 games, even +/- before getting left foot injury where he missed 26 games (5 of them playoffs).

Coming back from that injury, the team is now in the playoffs, 2 points in 7 games, a -2.


He started out great, then he never found his game again when coming back from the injuries.

Hero 06-25-2012 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grant123 (Post 51516893)
Just thought I would add this in case people didn't know.

JVR had 16 points (8 goals) in the first 21 games of this season (missed one game with a lower body injury) before getting an upper body injury where he missed 4 games. A -2 in those games if my math is correct.

Coming back from that injury, he got 6 points in 17 games, +1 in those games. Then he got a concussion where he missed 15 games.

After the concussion, he got 2 points in 6 games, even +/- before getting left foot injury where he missed 26 games (5 of them playoffs).

Coming back from that injury, the team is now in the playoffs, 2 points in 7 games, a -2.


He started out great, then he never found his game again when coming back from the injuries.

I was debating doing a pre-injury projection. But I thought the sample of 21 games was too small. 31 goal 63 point pace is a good chunk higher than where I pegged him.

Grant 06-25-2012 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hero (Post 51517715)
I was debating doing a pre-injury projection. But I thought the sample of 21 games was too small. 31 goal 63 point pace is a good chunk higher than where I pegged him.

Yeah, he was on fire haha. This was coming off of the 7 goals in 11 playoffs games and apparently a dominant second half to the 2010-2011 NHL season, I will see if I can find stats for that.

EDIT: 23 points (13 goals) in his final 41 regular season games in the 2010-2011 season (started looking at the new year)

Donmega 06-25-2012 05:59 PM

Jeez that's an insane write up, good job.

mikedifr 06-25-2012 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hero (Post 51513807)
I've seen a lot of people posting JVR stats and missing important pieces, so I thought I'd just put up one thread with a very complete and fair analysis of what he has done and can do.

JVR is so far a 20 goal guy

Some people have posted his stats, and his progression.

09/10 - 15 goals 35 points / 16 goals 37 points 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 21 goals 40 points / 23 goals 44 points 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 11 goals 24 points / 21 goals 46 points 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In his three season, JVR hasn't exactly progressed a lot. When you look at those goal totals and point totals, he has been pretty consistent, so I don't think we should him to suddenly improve or regress. If still in Philly, with the same line mates and same opportunity he'd be scoring 20 goals, most probably.

But, as some posters may have missed. JVR won't be in the same opportunity, or with the same players.

JVR has been given 3rd lines minutes, and little PP time

09/10 - 9th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
10/11 - 8th in TOI/Game, 8th in PP TOI/Game
11/12 - 9th in TOI/Game, 7th in PP TOI/Game

In each season he has been stuck playing very limited minutes.

09/10 - 1:24 PP/Game, 12:57 TOI/Game

He was stuck behind the likes of Richards, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, Briere, Hartnell, Leino. And we can safely assume he was the teams 3rd line winger.

10/11 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

It seemed the lines stayed the same. Giroux, Richards, Briere, Carter, Versteeg, Hartnell, Leino were all ahead of him. So same club but Versteeg stepped in and took minutes from him as well.

11/12 - 1:19 PP/Game, 14:31 TOI/Game

This season a lot of bodies moved out but he was still stuck behind in avg minutes some other guys. Giroux, Hartnell, Briere, Read, Jagr, Voracek, Talbot, Simmonds. So really didn't benefit from Carter and Richards leaving.

JVR has been playing with talented line mates

10/11 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - ANDREAS NODL - 5.39%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - CLAUDE GIROUX - 4.23%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - KRIS VERSTEEG - 3.43%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - JEFF CARTER - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.97%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MIKE RICHARDS - NIKOLAY ZHERDEV - 1.02%

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-com...gametype=ALL#A

We can see JVR always had one of Richards/Carter/Giroux as his C in his 10/11 season. Which is a calibre of C we don't have on our team.

11/12 Season

Line, % of teams total time on ice.

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - DANNY BRIERE - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 2.51%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - MAXIME TALBOT - JAKUB VORACEK - 2.09%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - WAYNE SIMMONDS - 1.72%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - CLAUDE GIROUX - JAROMIR JAGR - 1.47%
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK - BRAYDEN SCHENN - JAKUB VORACEK - 1.14%

So we can see in this season his quality of line mates did decrease a bit. He stil had a fair bit of time with Briere and enjoyed minutes on the top line with Giroux and Jagr occasionally. So one sign of progress is he maintained his stats, with weaker line mates.

JVR is below average physically, and is average defensively

09/10 Season

78 Games
37 Hits (This is soft, but he improves in this after this season)
21 Blocked Shots (Not bad relatively speaking)
16 Give Aways 29 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
-1 (8th of 19 forwards but to be fair top three were +7, +5, +2)

10/11 Season

75 Games
107 Hits (Better than Richards, Worse than Giroux/Hartnell/Grinders)
25 Blocked Shots (One of the worst on the team)
16 Give Aways 27 Take Aways (Nothing special, but not bad)
+15 (4th out of 16 forwards)

11/12 Season

43 Games
37 Hits (Just Below Average)
18 Blocked Shots (Just Above Average)
8 Give Aways 17 Take Aways (Pro rated, one of the better rates on the club)
-1 (12th of 17 forwards)

He needs series practise in the dot if he ever wants to play C again.
He's only taken 5 face-offs in 3 years.

So I doubt he takes on much more PK time or suddenly begins trucking people just because. Philly has always been a physical team, leafs not so. Leafs do have a more physical minded coach now though, so it just be a wash over all.

Side Note - SH%

09/10 8.7%
10/11 12.1%
11/12 9.1%

He hasn't exactly been improving his shot, or at least no pattern is there his shooting percentage has been up and down, so another variable we can't assume anything around.

Changes to expect

Increased Minutes

JVR's Goals/Minute & Points/Minute over the past three years

15/1010 minutes = 0.0148514851
21/1090 minutes = 0.019266055
11/652 minutes = 0.0168711656

Over the last two year, you can average that out to approx. 0.0180686103 goals/min

If you assume JVR plays 2nd line minutes with Grabo and Kulie who played 17:36 a game and 15:13 a game, then go with an average of 16:00 a game.

16:00 min/game x 82 games x 0.0180686103 goals/min = 24 goals

This changing variable here though, is his line mates, and his PP time.

Briere/Schenn - Simmonds/Voracek vs Grabovski - Kulemin

His PP time will approximately double if he's on the 2nd PP unit.

So this part is hard to put exact numbers to. The talent line of his line mates won't make a huge difference. Kulemin did have an off year but over all it isn't a stretch to say he has the same capacity as Simmonds/Voracek, maybe a little less. Then Briere/Schenn are comparable to Grabovski, with Grabo probably having the edge on Schenn but not Briere. So comparable or a slight downgrade.

The extra PP time we can assume will take on 4-5 goals. With the drop in line mates, we can play on the safer side and tack on 3 goals to his totals. But in Philly he was more sheltered than he will be in Toronto, with JVR he'll be playing ES against opposing Malkins/Crosbys/Kopitar if he sticks with Grabo and Kulie. I think that will be a wash for the benefits of extra PP time.

But again this depend a lot on what the extra PP time will or won't do for him. Philly and Toronto have had comparable PP%'s the last few years as well, so that won't be a factor either.

Finale Analysis

25 goals
50 points
Playing on the 2nd line
Paired against opposing players top forwards
Playing 2nd Power Play
Playing almost no Short Handed time

Great analysis, and I think your final stats are in the ballpark, I think the key is power play time....if on the first pp unit he will score 30, if the 2nd closer to 25....health is the only question with him in my opinion.

The only thing I don't think you or factoring into your analysis, or I may have missed is his development.....The article below, which I posted in another thread shows his growth rather than looking at each season individually. He dominated in 2010 playoffs and then started this past year with 16 points in 19 games...so I think he was taking that next step and then the injuries happened. His ppg pace would have likely been much higher if he didn't get hurt as he prob would have stayed on the top 2 lines rather than being bounced around.



http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-...rapup/45/45178

thecatch22 06-25-2012 08:46 PM

Bump for the nice work done by TS. I think 25/25 would be an excellent start to JVR's career as a Maple Leaf.

Duffman955 06-25-2012 08:58 PM

Your projecting points per minute may be inaccurate. Maybe increasing playing time would increase his production exponentially instead of in a linear pattern.

This can be seen in his playoff run he had where he scored 7 goals in 11 games. His production went up exponentially compared to the time he got.

Bottom line, it is difficult to predict how he will perform, but if he plays center between kessel and Lupul like many have speculated, we could see JVR produce at a near PPG pace.

Newfie John 06-25-2012 09:06 PM

I could quibble about the value of the statistics, but this was generally well done and was an interesting read. Great job!

The JVR acquisition reminds me A LOT of the Lupul acquisition. Injury issues, Philly connection, big winger with good hands... and coming to Toronto with something to prove.

HellasLEAF 06-25-2012 09:09 PM

seriously doubt he'll play centre, we could use that left handed presence on the left wing actually we are limited there. and face-offs and defensive acumen are a big part of playing centre and neither are strengths jvr has (unless they try and convert him).

he'll get every chance to produce. put me down for 25 - 30.

Newfie John 06-25-2012 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HellasLEAF (Post 51528861)
seriously doubt he'll play centre, we could use that left handed presence on the left wing actually we are limited there. and face-offs and defensive acumen are a big part of playing centre and neither are strengths jvr has (unless they try and convert him).

He's played pretty much zero center for Philly, so it'd be a pretty big adjustment for him.

In the brief time Lupul was off the Kessel line, he still looked pretty good to me. Maybe this works:

JVR - Bozak - Kessel

Lupul - Connolly - Kadri/Frattin (whoever has a better camp) [I really like the potential of this line]

MacArthur-Grabovski-Kulemin

Brown - Steckel - Armstrong

That has potential for three quite good scoring lines.

stanleyorbust 06-25-2012 09:15 PM

Awesome work here. I think your projections are a worst case if healthy scenario which is exciting as I think we all expect a young player like JVR to get better and hit their potential. Even at 25 g/ 50pts he will be a welcome addition to the team.

Grant 06-25-2012 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Newfie John (Post 51529209)
He's played pretty much zero center for Philly, so it'd be a pretty big adjustment for him.

In the brief time Lupul was off the Kessel line, he still looked pretty good to me. Maybe this works:

JVR - Bozak - Kessel

Lupul - Connolly - Kadri/Frattin (whoever has a better camp) [I really like the potential of this line]

MacArthur-Grabovski-Kulemin

Brown - Steckel - Armstrong

That has potential for three quite good scoring lines.

Hmmm, I'm guessing JVR would play best with Kessel and I do remember Lupul still playing alright beside others, although if I remember right, Kessel seemed kind of lost. I think we should put Kessel with whoever he plays best with, whether it is JVR or Lupul as he is our star forward. Will be interesting to see who it is, Lupul did pretty well with Kessel, if JVR can do better, watch out haha.

Sam Slick* 06-25-2012 09:32 PM

First to the OP, thank you for that. You did a lot of work and it all looks good.

I think anyone reading that would agree that he would not be considered a PWF.

Anyway, I will move on now.

Also, I think there is a big reason he got 3rd line minutes in Philly, its because of his compete level. Hopefully Carlyle can whip the lazyness out of him and get him banging.

Ricky Bobby 06-25-2012 10:04 PM

I'm still going to go with somewhere between a 50-60 point pace just like I did with Lupul last season.

Expecting at the very worst a 45 point pace season and at the very most a 70 point pace.

The only thing that analysis can't show and their is no stat for this is that JVR adds a dimension we were sorely lacking in which is being able to protect the puck in the offensive zone and win board battles. It won't ever show up on a stat line but considering that non of our top 6 TOI forwards are very good in this department it'll go a long way.

Ricky Bobby 06-25-2012 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grant123 (Post 51529811)
Hmmm, I'm guessing JVR would play best with Kessel and I do remember Lupul still playing alright beside others, although if I remember right, Kessel seemed kind of lost. I think we should put Kessel with whoever he plays best with, whether it is JVR or Lupul as he is our star forward. Will be interesting to see who it is, Lupul did pretty well with Kessel, if JVR can do better, watch out haha.

Kessel also did well with Kulemin the season before.

I wouldn't be terribly upset if they played on a line 5 on 5 together. It'd mean less offence but also a lot less goals against. Kulemin is our best defensive winger capable of playing big minutes and would help cover over a lot of the defensive weaknesses of Kessel.

lopes66 06-25-2012 10:11 PM

Man this is an awesome analysis! Thanks for taking the time to do this!

Sam Slick* 06-25-2012 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ricky Bobby (Post 51531655)
I'm still going to go with somewhere between a 50-60 point pace just like I did with Lupul last season.

Expecting at the very worst a 45 point pace season and at the very most a 70 point pace.

The only thing that analysis can't show and their is no stat for this is that JVR adds a dimension we were sorely lacking in which is being able to protect the puck in the offensive zone and win board battles. It won't ever show up on a stat line but considering that non of our top 6 TOI forwards are very good in this department it'll go a long way.

Sorry Ricky, JVR does not win board battles. Not a banger and no compete level is how he has been described by many top hockey people.

Just sayin'


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