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-   -   Speculation: Cap space question (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1225801)

Ched Brosky 07-06-2012 01:13 PM

Cap space question
 
Canucks fan coming in peace, although ur going to hate me for what I'm about to suggest haha. I know the Preds have just over 30M in cap space, but how much of that are they willing to use? Are they finally willing to go right up against the cap?

Also you guys need 3 top 4 d-men and 2 top 6 fowards minus RFAs Weber and Kostitsyn right? Or do u expect one or 2 of Ellis/Blum/Klein/Josi/Ekholm to join Weber and Gill in the top 4?

Reason I ask is because I was wondering if Nashville could afford to match a 1 year 10M offersheet to Weber. Compensation is 4 1st round picks. Matching may leave the Preds with nothing to show for Weber next year.

If they match they also now only have 20M which is a 5M average for 2 top 3 d-men and to re-sign Kostitsyn and sign another top 6 foward. This only if they spend right up to the cap as well.

So would managment be allowed to spend to the cap to fill out the roster if they match?

Broom of the System 07-06-2012 01:43 PM

With the uncertainty of the CBA, Weber will not even consider signing a one year deal. Thanks for playing though. All of the personnel stuff is way off base too.

Broom of the System 07-06-2012 01:47 PM

Klein has played second pair for the past 3+ years. Josi played on the 2nd pair last year, Blum the year before. Gill will be paired with Ellis on the 3rd pair.

Weber-Josi/trade
Klein - Josi/trade
Gill- Ellis

So no, we don't need 3 top 4 D-men, we need 1.

Also the top 6 that started the year last year, and was top 10 in offense before the Rads/AK additions, will be returning next year.

MarkMM 07-06-2012 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Broom of the System (Post 52223877)
With the uncertainty of the CBA, Weber will not even consider signing a one year deal. Thanks for playing though. All of the personnel stuff is way off base too.

Neither you nor I nor anyone in between knows what Weber "would not even consider". It's a consideration to be sure, but if he's set on going somewhere, aside nightmare scenarios like a debilitating injury (which is a risk to be sure) Weber's the kind of guy who will be paid well no matter where he ends up or what CBA. Things like playing where he wants to play for a team that can win may mean more than guaranteeing a lifetime salary in one contract.

To the original post, iirc ownership has stated or implied that they would be willing to spend a lot more, maybe to the cap this year, previously there's been an internal cap which was roughly the highest a team could spend without losing revenue sharing. I think the Bridgestone lease might have had something to do with this, not sure if the renegotiated lease changes things.

But the Preds are in good shape personnel-wise. As has been stated, really one more top-four defenseman and things would be set.

Forward wise, I think most expect Kostitsyn to get roughly $3M in or before arbitration, I think Colin Wilson hasn't been factored in (if you're going by Capgeek) so the number of bodies are there with $24-million-ish to spare.

Assuming $10 million to Weber and $4 million for a defenseman addition, the Preds would still be $10 million under the cap.

There's plenty of cap space to ice a solid team even with a huge offer-sheet, if ownership is willing to up it a bit like they've said they would, and since they were willing to pay Suter and Weber both big bucks this year, I'm inclined to believe them.

The only question would be if Weber signed such an offer-sheet, would it make sense to match it and then lose him next year since he can't be traded?

ThirdManIn 07-06-2012 03:18 PM

I guess whether or not matching the offer sheet depends on what Poile thinks he can do in a trade. Trading Weber should bring a pretty sizable return, but the only happens if Poile is confident Weber will not sign long term. If that's the case, it seems to me a trade will happen before an offer sheet can come in. If Weber is willing to sign long term then he doesn't sign the 1 yr OS anyway, so it's an irrelevant talking point.

As has been stated in posts ahead of mine, this team as is needs only one top four defender. The forward line up is fine, but could certainly be improved via FA or trade.

Losing Suter isn't the earth-shattering event that a lot of people, Nashville fans and other fans alike, seem to want to make it out to be. It was a bad situation that sucked to go through, but it's over. Ryan Suter was not the reason this team was competitive, so losing him doesn't back Poile into a corner.

On Poile's list of things to do:

1) Offer Weber the best contract he can
2) Decide whether or not Weber wants to stay. Screw the "I want to see if you can ice a competitive roster" ********. Screw the "I want to sign a one year deal and see what happens on the ice" ********. It's all in or nothing at all with Weber.
3) If he re-signs then it's over. If he doesn't, see #4
4) Start shopping Weber. Sizable offers should come in immediately. I'm sure GMs around the league have a good idea of the most they would give up for certain superstars, especially ones who might come available (i.e. Crosby will not become available, while Weber might. I'm sure every GM has the biggest offer and their opening offer already decided)
5) Land the biggest deal available. If I were Poile I would do my best to send Weber somewhere that he wants to go. It would not only be the right thing to do, but it's likely that the best offers come from teams confident in their ability to ink him to a long term deal.

And a little clarification in terms of spending and how it relates to revenue sharing. Teams don't necessarily lose revenue sharing dollars by spending more. That is only the case if your team is spending between the floor and the midpoint, and that money still isn't guaranteed to be there. Nashville will continue to be entitled to the first tier of revenue sharing dollars as it has to do with market size and not money spent on the team. The second tier is what is decided by salary, and it is designed in such a way to allow teams to spend to, but not beyond, the midpoint. For instance, if the floor is $50m and the midpoint is $60m (made up numbers... I dunno what the floor and midpoint will be) and your team spends $55m, your team is eligible for $5m in RS dollars provided those dollars still exist. There is no guarantee you get it one way or the other. If you spend exactly $60m you are not eligible for any second tier dollars, but you are still entitled to the first tier.

Since Nashville has been a team which spends pretty close to the midpoint, second tier RS isn't all that important. The only money "lost" would be the money spent on salary that goes beyond the former internal budget, and that could be made up in other areas.

slappipappi 07-06-2012 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silverback91 (Post 52222041)
Canucks fan coming in peace, although ur going to hate me for what I'm about to suggest haha.

Reason I ask is because I was wondering if Nashville could afford to match a 1 year 10M offersheet to Weber. Compensation is 4 1st round picks. Matching may leave the Preds with nothing to show for Weber next year.


Who would be stupid enough to risk 4 1st round picks on a one year deal? Making that offer would leave that team with nothing to show for that year of Weber.

Ah, Canuck's fan.....ask and answered.

braindead 07-06-2012 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkMM (Post 52228457)
Neither you nor I nor anyone in between knows what Weber "would not even consider". It's a consideration to be sure, but if he's set on going somewhere, aside nightmare scenarios like a debilitating injury (which is a risk to be sure) Weber's the kind of guy who will be paid well no matter where he ends up or what CBA. Things like playing where he wants to play for a team that can win may mean more than guaranteeing a lifetime salary in one contract.

The only question would be if Weber signed such an offer-sheet, would it make sense to match it and then lose him next year since he can't be traded?

I think the flaw in the logic underlying the question is this: If he in fact doesn't want to sign with Nashville, he can go where he wants right now (instead of risking a year from now) AND get paid the max (not just well) by playing his cards right. Why would you mess that up by signing a 1 year offer sheet?

If we match, he stays here and then has to negotiate somewhere under the new CBA. If we don't match, he has to negotiate with that team or others under the new CBA. Instead, there is a scenario where he can get traded AND negotiate under the current CBA.... by far his best option (and, as luck would have it, the best option for the Preds and probably the other team too.)

The correct language from the other poster maybe should have been "unless Weber is insane, he would not even consider...".

Drake744 07-06-2012 05:13 PM

Poile on 102.5:

Quote:

@WillyD1025 Poile on @1025TheGame on Weber: "Ownership has told me #Preds would match any and all offer sheet"

NoNecksCurse 07-06-2012 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake744 (Post 52235227)
Poile on 102.5:

bob mckenzie said weber won't look for offer sheets as he knows preds will match..made it sound like with suter's departure, weber isnt wanting to stick around

Joe T Choker 07-06-2012 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoNecksCurse (Post 52238277)
bob mckenzie said weber won't look for offer sheets as he knows preds will match..made it sound like with suter's departure, weber isnt wanting to stick around

Got to put him on the trade block tomorrow

thecloser 07-06-2012 08:04 PM

i work at bridgestone and with the preds and around the office it has been said ownership wants us to be a cap team this year. we need to spend spend spend and shop around at guys like nash and ryan. i don't understand why we are sitting on our thumbs when we need to make moves now so that we know what kind of team were looking at next year.

just thought i'd share.

Iron Duke 07-06-2012 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thecloser (Post 52242985)
i work at bridgestone and with the preds and around the office it has been said ownership wants us to be a cap team this year. we need to spend spend spend and shop around at guys like nash and ryan. i don't understand why we are sitting on our thumbs when we need to make moves now so that we know what kind of team were looking at next year.

just thought i'd share.

I'd guess they're wanting to see what Weber is going to do and whether we will have to reconstruct a top pairing from scratch before they start dealing other assets away.

101st_fan 07-06-2012 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thecloser (Post 52242985)
i work at bridgestone and with the preds and around the office it has been said ownership wants us to be a cap team this year. we need to spend spend spend and shop around at guys like nash and ryan. i don't understand why we are sitting on our thumbs when we need to make moves now so that we know what kind of team were looking at next year.

just thought i'd share.

Other than Carle to Tampa on the night of the 4th, what major moves have happened since Suter made up his mind? We're still waiting on Weber to make up his mind if he is willing to stay long term, nobody is really trading right now, Doan hasn't decided if he'll hit the market, SK filed for arbitration so he can't accept offer sheets meaning we have exclusive negotiation rights with him until his hearing, Semin is still out there but not really a fit to our defensive requirements ....

Seth Lake 07-06-2012 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thecloser (Post 52242985)
i work at bridgestone and with the preds and around the office it has been said ownership wants us to be a cap team this year. we need to spend spend spend and shop around at guys like nash and ryan. i don't understand why we are sitting on our thumbs when we need to make moves now so that we know what kind of team were looking at next year.

just thought i'd share.

The issue is that Poile isn't going to spend money just to spend money. He will identify guys that are worth the money and go after them accordingly. It'll take time, but with Suter out...I don't doubt Poile will be in on every big name on the market right now.

MarkMM 07-07-2012 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by braindead (Post 52234803)
I think the flaw in the logic underlying the question is this: If he in fact doesn't want to sign with Nashville, he can go where he wants right now (instead of risking a year from now) AND get paid the max (not just well) by playing his cards right. Why would you mess that up by signing a 1 year offer sheet?

If we match, he stays here and then has to negotiate somewhere under the new CBA. If we don't match, he has to negotiate with that team or others under the new CBA. Instead, there is a scenario where he can get traded AND negotiate under the current CBA.... by far his best option (and, as luck would have it, the best option for the Preds and probably the other team too.)

The correct language from the other poster maybe should have been "unless Weber is insane, he would not even consider...".

Good point.

Luongo was on the radio today and out right said he'd like to go to Florida (but also said other destinations are possibilities).

For the reasons you've laid out, and because I'd think (hope?) Weber (if he wants to leave) wants to act in an honourable fashion to the Preds, I'm starting to wonder if the lack of movement on both Weber and Luongo might mean that a trade is in the works.

Nashville doesn't need a goalie and Luongo wants to go to Florida, and (assuming) Weber wants to go to Vancouver, then perhaps a three-way deal is in the works?

- Luongo to Florida
- Weber to Vancouver
- Ballard (multiple-years, offensive skills) or Edler (budding lower-tier #1 defenseman but he is UFA next season) to Nashville from Vancouver PLUS Nashville picks someone they want from Florida? Draft picks as needed to balance things out.

Florida gets its Luongo (making Luongo's wife happy), Vancouver gets Weber (which makes Weber's fiance happy), Nashville gets a defenseman to help plug the gap, and a core piece or two or three from Florida which may be the best deal workable if DP doesn't have much negotiating leverage.

MarkMM 07-07-2012 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slappipappi (Post 52234413)
Who would be stupid enough to risk 4 1st round picks on a one year deal? Making that offer would leave that team with nothing to show for that year of Weber.

Ah, Canuck's fan.....ask and answered.

To be fair, I think he's under the assumption that Weber wants to go home to BC (or at least his fiance wants to come home to Vancouver). If there was some certainty around that, then 4 1st picks that would likely be lower-end picks anyway to get an extra season during the window of the Sedins/Kesler era wouldn't be too bad a price to pay. The Canucks are still to unload Luongo and if Weber were to go to Vancouver, then I'd imagine Ballard and/or Edler would be moved out either this or next season, and if you move them for picks, then the draft picks would be replaced almost instantaneously, and probably with better quality picks at that.

predwings 07-07-2012 04:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkMM (Post 52252753)
Good point.

Luongo was on the radio today and out right said he'd like to go to Florida (but also said other destinations are possibilities).

For the reasons you've laid out, and because I'd think (hope?) Weber (if he wants to leave) wants to act in an honourable fashion to the Preds, I'm starting to wonder if the lack of movement on both Weber and Luongo might mean that a trade is in the works.

Nashville doesn't need a goalie and Luongo wants to go to Florida, and (assuming) Weber wants to go to Vancouver, then perhaps a three-way deal is in the works?

- Luongo to Florida
- Weber to Vancouver
- Ballard (multiple-years, offensive skills) or Edler (budding lower-tier #1 defenseman but he is UFA next season) to Nashville from Vancouver PLUS Nashville picks someone they want from Florida? Draft picks as needed to balance things out.

Florida gets its Luongo (making Luongo's wife happy), Vancouver gets Weber (which makes Weber's fiance happy), Nashville gets a defenseman to help plug the gap, and a core piece or two or three from Florida which may be the best deal workable if DP doesn't have much negotiating leverage.

That is a terrible deal for Nashville. We'd be basically giving away the face of the franchise for nothing in return. You want him, you start with Ryan Kesler and then start adding some more. Thanks.

MarkMM 07-07-2012 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by predwings (Post 52256983)
That is a terrible deal for Nashville. We'd be basically giving away the face of the franchise for nothing in return. You want him, you start with Ryan Kesler and then start adding some more. Thanks.

Not sure if you missed the part where if Florida is getting Luongo, then they'd have to give something in equal value in return, but give it to NASHVILLE.

The point here is that Nashville and Vancouver don't make good trading partners, and Florida and Vancouver don't make good trading partners, that's generally when three-way deals come in.

So the question would be, is there anything in Florida's cupboard that Nashville would find helpful that's the rough trading equivalent of Luongo.

I've been a long-time poster and fan here of the Preds, so when I say that Nashville doesn't have the negotiating leverage to ask for Kesler in return, I say this as a Preds fan. Kesler is a 30 goal-scoring Selke winner who has reached the 40-goal plateau, is a heart-and-soul player who was runner-up to H. Sedin in being team-captain for the Canucks AND took a discount to sign long-term with Vancouver. Five years of Kesler at $5 million when you see what other centres of his calibre are getting is not worth an unsigned Shea Weber.

Weber is a Norris-nominee (should have been winner by now) who is RFA and in this scenario it would be assuming is not willing to sign long-term in Nashville, and may have his sights set on his (and his fiance's) hometown.

That changes things, and with Luongo needing to be dealt and his wife wanting to go home to Florida, again, the Canucks leverage with Florida isn't strong, hence a three-way solution that gets everyone walking away with pieces that fit their needs.


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