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-   -   Speculation: Minnesota's Salary Cap (Non) Situation (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1226161)

Dr Jan Itor 07-06-2012 10:43 PM

Minnesota's Salary Cap (Non) Situation
 
So, after seeing some proposals designed to give us "cap flexibility" here's the deal...

Right now, we have $1.4 million in cap space and no plans to add anybody else in free agency. Should we desire to add a player at the trade deadline, due to salaries being calculated on a daily basis, we can add salary greater than the $1.4 we have in space. Now, moving on to future years...

Summer of 2013
We have $13.5 million in major salaries coming off the books. Those includes Backstroms $6m, Bouchard's $4m and Cullen's $3.5m. Of those three, only Bouchard and Backstrom are possibilities to re-sign and would likely be at reduced rates. Other than that, we only have a couple of RFAs to re-sign. I actually anticipate us being $$12-15 million under the salary cap next summer (should it stay the same).

Summer of 2014
We have $14.5 million in major salaries coming off the books. Those include Heatley's $7.5m, Gilbert's $4m and Setoguchi's $3m. I anticipate Gilbert and Setoguchi re-signing, but not for significant raises and should Heatley be brought back, it will absolutely be for reduced rate (maybe even ~ 50% of his current contract).

After 2014-15, we only have three players under contract. Our young players will not see significant money until 5+ years from now.

We do not need to manufacture cap space. We will be fine.

Shorthander 07-06-2012 10:45 PM

Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

Grant 07-06-2012 10:48 PM

With the cap going up to about ~70m and so few quality free agents this summer, EVERY team is fine. It's whether or not the cap drops a little with the new CBA. If the cap drops a little, a few teams, such as Minny, will be in trouble but no teams will do anything until that time. They will all deal with it when, if, it happens.

Won't be seeing cap dump trades this summer, at least we shouldn't be. Only trades of teams trying to get to the cap floor.

Dampland 07-06-2012 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

:shakehead

So apparently Philly, Detroit, Chicago, New Jersey & Nashville have to overpay as well huh? Since their offers were in the same ballpark.

Dr Jan Itor 07-06-2012 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

Which is where our young, cheap talent comes into play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grant123 (Post 52247425)
With the cap going up to about ~70m and so few quality free agents this summer, EVERY team is fine. It's whether or not the cap drops a little with the new CBA. If the cap drops a little, a few teams, such as Minny, will be in trouble but no teams will do anything until that time. They will all deal with it when, if, it happens.

Won't be seeing cap dump trades this summer, at least we shouldn't be. Only trades of teams trying to get to the cap floor.

If they drop the cap, they aren't just going to say "deal with it Boston, Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, etc...). There will some sort of protection.

J22 07-06-2012 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

Cullen and Bouchard will be replaced with guys like- Coyle, Zucker, Phillips, Larsson, Bulmer, Palmieri
And Backstrom will be replaced by Harding with Hackett moving in to the backup role. Or Backstrom could even be re-signed for much less than his 6M cap hit.

Leafs For Life* 07-06-2012 10:56 PM

The thing is, it is probable that the NHL will have the cap lowered so then they WILL be in cap trouble when that happens.

Grant 07-06-2012 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor (Post 52247681)
If they drop the cap, they aren't just going to say "deal with it Boston, Minnesota, Calgary, Vancouver, San Jose, etc...). There will some sort of protection.

Probably right, but we still have no idea what is going to happen haha. If I had to guess, it's that they assume revenue will continue to increase thus the salary cap continuing to rise but in order to not screw over any teams, they will keep the cap as is until it in line with the new profit sharing between the owners and players.

Either way what I was trying to say is there is no chance any teams shed salary when they don't have to yet because they may not have to.

Dr Jan Itor 07-06-2012 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 52247777)
The thing is, it is probable that the NHL will have the cap lowered so then they WILL be in cap trouble when that happens.

Along with Boston, Calgary, Vancouver and San Jose then. I highly doubt they're just going to tell them to "deal with it". They aren't going to punish teams for playing by the rules.

alpine4life 07-06-2012 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 52247777)
The thing is, it is probable that the NHL will have the cap lowered so then they WILL be in cap trouble when that happens.

When the CBA was established in 2005 all the players in the entire NHL had to take a pay cut (15% if I can remember right). If the Governor's/Owners/Players voted to lower the Cap once again, they would have to lower the salaries again, hence no cap problem in Minny ;)

IronRangeHockey 07-06-2012 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

They turned down Philly's higher contact offer. Many teams would have paid the 7.5AAV and more for either.

TaLoN 07-06-2012 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

Every team over pays for UFA's, but in this case, the Wild did NOT offer the highest contracts. Both players left $10+mil on the table from other teams to sign with Minnesota.

Plus, if the Wild get what they hope to out of their extremely talented pool of prospects... we have a cheap influx coming of home developed players that will cost much less, and they would only need to supplement a player here and there to fill in any gaps still left.

The Wild are sitting PERFECTLY in terms of future cap and future talent.

sharski 07-06-2012 11:32 PM

if the cap is lowered, I assume that at the minimum everyone's cap hit will grandfathered in at the same reduced rate that the cap is lowered by

this is, of course, assuming the NHL execs use common sense

Jimmy McNulty 07-06-2012 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpine4life (Post 52248083)
When the CBA was established in 2005 all the players in the entire NHL had to take a pay cut (15% if I can remember right). If the Governor's/Owners/Players voted to lower the Cap once again, they would have to lower the salaries again, hence no cap problem in Minny ;)

Wasn't it closer to 25%? Also, don't forget that there was a period where teams could buyout players to help get under the cap.

deytookerjaabs 07-06-2012 11:41 PM

I didn't realize the Wild had drafted all these amazing blue chip talents who were going to shock the league in the next couple years.

The only team to win the cup in the past few years without a plethora of elite talent was Boston, and they had Tim Thomas + Chara and won 3 game 7's to do it. Anaheim, Detroit, Pit, Chicago, and L.A. were all pretty stacked at the time.

Good Luck.

MK9 07-06-2012 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

The utter ignorance of that statement is astounding.

If WE have to overpay badly, then what do Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Philly have to do since their (at least most) offers were more more than ours and we still landed them?

Good gods I don't believe in. Use your head please.

Quote:

Originally Posted by deytookerjaabs (Post 52249603)
I didn't realize the Wild had drafted all these amazing blue chip talents who were going to shock the league in the next couple years.

Perhaps try paying attention then eh?

Dr Jan Itor 07-06-2012 11:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deytookerjaabs (Post 52249603)
I didn't realize the Wild had drafted all these amazing blue chip talents who were going to shock the league in the next couple years.

The only team to win the cup in the past few years without a plethora of elite talent was Boston, and they had Tim Thomas + Chara and won 3 game 7's to do it. Anaheim, Detroit, Pit, Chicago, and L.A. were all pretty stacked at the time.

Good Luck.

I'd contend that Granlund, Brodin, Coyle, Dumba and Hackett are "blue-chip talents".

IHaveNoCreativity 07-07-2012 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shorthander (Post 52247323)
Except that you need to replace those players and if this week has shown us anything, its that Minnesota has to overpay badly to attract good UFAs.

:facepalm:

This is ridiculous... Every single team in the league would of given Parise and Suter the contracts we did..

Mr Misty 07-07-2012 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharski (Post 52249269)
if the cap is lowered, I assume that at the minimum everyone's cap hit will grandfathered in at the same reduced rate that the cap is lowered by

this is, of course, assuming the NHL execs use common sense

The NHL has been clear that teams weren't going to be given a way out, and really they shouldn't IMO. Not enough teams will be affected this offseason to get something like this to protect against a rollback.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niko (Post 52249529)
Wasn't it closer to 25%? Also, don't forget that there was a period where teams could buyout players to help get under the cap.

24%

UniverStalinGraduate* 07-07-2012 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 52247777)
The thing is, it is probable that the NHL will have the cap lowered so then they WILL be in cap trouble when that happens.

Any drastic lowering of the cap will be accompanied by a roll back in player salaries.

Guaranteed.

Kingler 07-07-2012 12:09 AM

The problem is the going rates for these guys are going to go way higher after this summer. Serviceable 2nd pairing defenseman are going for $5m+. Half decent goalie, $3.5m. So the notion that your UFA will resign for reduce rate might not be likely unless there is something much more to entice them to stay for less. Yes Minnesota is under the cap, but so are many of the other teams given current cap structure. Bidding for UFA will be extremely competitive in the foreseeable future. And if Parise can leave a stanley cup finalist team, and Suter can leave a perennial playoff team; then there really is little loyalty when that much dollars are being waived around

Too many good players have been locked up to retirement contracts and the mediocre UFAs are getting big pay days with teams "having" to spend. Stars that now rarely makes it to UFA end up getting huge offers. And its not really a good thing, IMO, to have too little of your roster signed. You end up having to go to market and bid crazy money

Ownership, on the other hand are shelling out $24m/yr for two players for first 2 years, $22m/yr next 3rd, and $18m/yr for foreseeable future. So yes, you might be "under the cap" but the team has to go by a budget and if the owner expects player salary budget of $xx, then to be $yy under the budget is worthless if you already reach our max real salary limit

But I still think Minnesota will do fine with regards to salary management. But the move will hand cuff the franchise more than what OP is saying. Granted I think they are already a very solid playoff team so not too much more tinkering will be needed

Billy Mays Here 07-07-2012 12:14 AM

Thank you for making this thread. I was strongly considering making a similar thread myself after all the recent proposals and accusations of us potentially being in cap hell now. We may not have much flexibility this year, but we will be fine come next year.

Dr Jan Itor 07-07-2012 12:15 AM

A lot depends on our scouting and drafting in the coming years. Admittedly, we probably won't be able to afford to completely **** up on 4 straight drafts anymore (and I have confidence we won't). It's about continuing to find the young, cheap talent in the coming years that will help ensure that we don't run into trouble. That is definitely under our control.

IHaveNoCreativity 07-07-2012 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor (Post 52250707)
A lot depends on our scouting and drafting in the coming years. Admittedly, we probably won't be able to afford to completely **** up on 4 straight drafts anymore (and I have confidence we won't). It's about continuing to find the young, cheap talent in the coming years that will help ensure that we don't run into trouble. That is definitely under our control.

I think we're doing fine in the drafting department.. Our past 3 drafts have been strong.

PuckInTheNards 07-07-2012 12:26 AM

Why bother with this thread? We think we're fine, haters think we're screwed and there's a bunch of people in the middle who will wait and see. It all depends on how our prospects turn out anyway - if they're as good as advertised, then we should be a pretty good team for the next several years. If not, then we were screwed no matter what we did anyway.

All the ******** over our signings is ridiculous. If you're New Jersey or Nashville, then I completely understand your pain - we all went through the same thing when Gaborik left. If you're Pittsburgh or Detroit, then your ******** is nothing more than arrogance and a sense of entitlement. The rest of the league should roll over because you're an Original 6 team or because you had the good fortune to draft Crosby?


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