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MadDog6 07-17-2012 03:05 PM

Oshie's Arbitration
 
Although there is still time to get something done, I think its a foregone conclusion that Oshie and the Blues will be going into arbitration. If it does go here, what does everyone believe is going to be the arbitrator's ruling? Below is a reminder of what can be used in judgement and what cannot:

Admissable:
Statistics
Number of games played
Injuries
Intangibles
Comparable players and their SPCs

Not Admissable:
Qualifying offers
Prior offers/previous negotiations
The League or club's financial condition
SPCs (Standard Player Contract) signed by unrestricted free agents
SPCs not given to Group 2 RFAs
SPCs not deemed to be comparables

So, to me, the major questions are:

1-Who are the Comparable players that fit the RFA criteria and their contracts?

2-Very much conjecture without knowing the personality of the arbitrator, but what do you see him awarding as the price tag?

3-Do the Blues give him one or two years? Most will say one so he remains an RFA but will the Blues to a risk and give him two based on the possibility of him remaining an RFA longer under the new CBA?

STL fan in IA 07-17-2012 03:30 PM

I think it's possible that it goes to arbitration but I don't really see it as a forgone conclusion at all. They've been discussing a 4-6 year deal but can't come to an agreement on what Oshie is worth in his UFA years. All that can result in arbitration is a 1 or 2 yr deal and I think it would be highly likely that they are close enough in Oshie's value to be able to come to an agreement on a short term deal without getting an arbitrator involved. My guess is that they negotiate the longer term deal until the 11th hour and if they can't get it done, they'll agree on a short term deal without arbitration. It going all the way to arbitration is certainly possible...just not a forgone conclusion IMO.

bleedblue1223 07-17-2012 03:49 PM

I think both sides want to get a long-term deal done, and they seem close enough, just have to finalize the UFA years. I'm expecting a deal to be done before arbitration.

rumrokh 07-17-2012 04:29 PM

Somewhat comparable players are Steen, Marchand, Voracek, Simmonds, Foligno, and Callahan. They're all wingers in similar point ranges and were all Group 2 RFAs for their last contracts.

We're familiar with Steener. 3.36 million a year. Has more games played and is considered a team leader. Has also missed a decent number of games due to injury, but that was after signing his current contract.

Marchand makes 2.5 and signed after a 21 goal, 41 point season - a year in which he also kicked ass in the playoffs en route to a Cup: 25gp, 11g, 8a, 19p, +12. The key difference at the signing of that contract is that Oshie gets more points, has a better two-way game, and is older.

Voracek made 2.25 on his last contract, signed after consecutive 50 and 46 point seasons. The key difference is that Oshie is older, has a better two way game, accumulates points at a little higher rate, and has missed a lot more games due to injury.

Simmonds may or may not be comparable because he is now, but wasn't when he signed his deal a year ago. I'll assume he's not comparable, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the comparison allowed.

Foligno just scored 47 points and signed a deal a hair over 3 million. Again, Oshie is a bit better and more proven scorer, has a better overall game, and has missed more games.

Callahan is an interesting case. Before signing his current deal at 4.275, he had 23 goals and 48 points in 60 games. He was also an alternate captain and was then named captain shortly after signing the deal. He and Oshie have comparable two-way skill and have both missed time to injury. Oshie has missed a good chunk more time and cannot compete in the leadership arena.
Another item to note is that Callahan's current contract eats up some UFA years - I don't know if that's admissible, but it's not insignificant.

Based on that, unless there are some really compelling comparisons that I'm missing (there are plenty more, but I don't know if any of them are wildly different from this set), I think he gets a hair under 4 million, probably more like 3.5. Maybe a bit lower due to injury concerns, but any lower than 3.25 would surprise me.

Robb_K 07-17-2012 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumrokh (Post 52641307)
Somewhat comparable players are Steen, Marchand, Voracek, Simmonds, Foligno, and Callahan. They're all wingers in similar point ranges and were all Group 2 RFAs for their last contracts.

We're familiar with Steener. 3.36 million a year. Has more games played and is considered a team leader. Has also missed a decent number of games due to injury, but that was after signing his current contract.

Marchand makes 2.5 and signed after a 21 goal, 41 point season - a year in which he also kicked ass in the playoffs en route to a Cup: 25gp, 11g, 8a, 19p, +12. The key difference at the signing of that contract is that Oshie gets more points, has a better two-way game, and is older.

Voracek made 2.25 on his last contract, signed after consecutive 50 and 46 point seasons. The key difference is that Oshie is older, has a better two way game, accumulates points at a little higher rate, and has missed a lot more games due to injury.

Simmonds may or may not be comparable because he is now, but wasn't when he signed his deal a year ago. I'll assume he's not comparable, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the comparison allowed.

Foligno just scored 47 points and signed a deal a hair over 3 million. Again, Oshie is a bit better and more proven scorer, has a better overall game, and has missed more games.

Callahan is an interesting case. Before signing his current deal at 4.275, he had 23 goals and 48 points in 60 games. He was also an alternate captain and was then named captain shortly after signing the deal. He and Oshie have comparable two-way skill and have both missed time to injury. Oshie has missed a good chunk more time and cannot compete in the leadership arena.
Another item to note is that Callahan's current contract eats up some UFA years - I don't know if that's admissible, but it's not insignificant.

Based on that, unless there are some really compelling comparisons that I'm missing (there are plenty more, but I don't know if any of them are wildly different from this set), I think he gets a hair under 4 million, probably more like 3.5. Maybe a bit lower due to injury concerns, but any lower than 3.25 would surprise me.

I think he'll get more like $3.8-$4.0 million for 4 years, unless Oshie refuses to sign a long-term contract. Then, they'll agree on a one-year figure (but that would be disastrous for The Blues). I hope than can agree on 4 or 5 years.

rumrokh 07-17-2012 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb_K (Post 52641517)
I think he'll get more like $3.8-$4.0 million for 4 years, unless Oshie refuses to sign a long-term contract. Then, they'll agree on a one-year figure (but that would be disastrous for The Blues). I hope than can agree on 4 or 5 years.

All those comparisons are assuming he goes to arbitration. I agree, I think they're trying their damnedest to get a deal done before then - there's a decent amount of time left. If the Blues sign him first, I tend to agree with your numbers. He might make more than Perron, but he won't make as much as Backes.

Meatwagon 07-17-2012 05:35 PM

At this point I think the Blues will sign him to a one year deal @ 3.5 and try again next year after the new CBA has kicked in. This way they avoid arbitration all together and make sure that the communication lines are still open to signing a long term extension.

If Oshie wants more than Backes, the Blues might have to trade him. Strickland said he believes that Oshie wants more than Backes during his(Oshies) UFA years. Strick also said that they will be meeting before arbitration, in person, so they may get a one year deal done during that meeting. If Oshie scores 65-70 pts next year(he won't) then maybe they sign him to an annual term around 5-5.25 during his UFA years. Right now I just don't know if Army is willing to pay him more than Backes. BTW, how big of a steal is Backes' contract now? The only player on the team worth more than Backes is Petro, who should be getting a Karlsson contract after next year. Although if they do cut contract lengths and put a cap on years, they should sign him for 10+yrs now. Maybe it will work out for the Blues that Oshie scores 55 again while getting out scored by Mac, Petro, Perron, Backes, Tarasenko;), then the Blues can come back and say that Oshie shouldn't be our highest paid forward.

Just a thought.

rumrokh 07-17-2012 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meatwagon (Post 52643435)
At this point I think the Blues will sign him to a one year deal @ 3.5 and try again next year after the new CBA has kicked in. This way they avoid arbitration all together and make sure that the communication lines are still open to signing a long term extension.

If Oshie wants more than Backes, the Blues might have to trade him. Strickland said he believes that Oshie wants more than Backes during his(Oshies) UFA years. Strick also said that they will be meeting before arbitration, in person, so they may get a one year deal done during that meeting. If Oshie scores 65-70 pts next year(he won't) then maybe they sign him to an annual term around 5-5.25 during his UFA years. Right now I just don't know if Army is willing to pay him more than Backes. BTW, how big of a steal is Backes' contract now? The only player on the team worth more than Backes is Petro, who should be getting a Karlsson contract after next year. Although if they do cut contract lengths and put a cap on years, they should sign him for 10+yrs now. Maybe it will work out for the Blues that Oshie scores 55 again while getting out scored by Mac, Petro, Perron, Backes, Tarasenko;), then the Blues can come back and say that Oshie shouldn't be our highest paid forward.

Just a thought.

Unless it's a one-year deal for significantly more than he'd get in arbitration, there's only one reason for this over arbitration: Oshie can still be traded - in which case, he probably will be. If I'm Oshie and I really want to stay with the Blues and prove to them that I deserve more money, I'd sooner go to arbitration than sign a regular one-year deal.

River City Rumble 07-17-2012 07:20 PM

TJ Oshie is the light-version of Dustin Brown. Identical in points, but Oshie has much better defensive numbers.
TJ Oshie (2011-'12): 19 G, 35 A, 54P, +16; 130 hits, 45 blocked shots, 14 giveaways, 61 takeaways;
Dustin Brown (2011-'12): 22G, 32A, 54P, +18; 293 hits, 32 BkS, 53 GvA, 39 TkA

Time on ice is pretty much the same, although Brown has a big lead in PP TOI/G.

Brown signed a 6-year deal after his '07-'08 season, where he scored 33 goals and 27 assists but was a -13. He was 23 when he signed it, and he's making $3.5M a year in his final years of the contract. I believe he was also making $3.5M at Oshie's age, and with similar points and cap conditions.

I can see Oshie getting somewhere in the $3-3.5M range (4 to 5% of the ceiling), but arbitration-inflation could max at around $4M. I definitely see it being a 1-year deal, and the Blues negotiating a longer term deal with increasing-salary like Backes and Perron's deals.

2 Minute Minor 07-17-2012 11:08 PM

I believe Oshie's value is under-rated by the data the arbitration would use. I think its in his best interest to work a deal with the very fair Armstrong rather than rolling the dice with an arbitrator. Either way, I don't see this as a huge deal for the team. He's on the Blues next year, and at worst it becomes another important contract season for Oshie. Nothing wrong with that.

rumrokh 07-17-2012 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2 Minute Minor (Post 52654317)
I believe Oshie's value is under-rated by the data the arbitration would use. I think its in his best interest to work a deal with the very fair Armstrong rather than rolling the dice with an arbitrator. Either way, I don't see this as a huge deal for the team. He's on the Blues next year, and at worst it becomes another important contract season for Oshie. Nothing wrong with that.

Worst case scenario, actually, is that he gets one year in arbitration, performs about the same in the upcoming season, and then files for arbitration again in a year. It would really handcuff the Blues and he would probably get to UFA status and leave. I doubt that happens, and two to three years of a very good player is still a pretty nice "worst case scenario," but the Blues could end up losing him to free agency.

The new CBA could change some details in there, but the differences are fairly significant among a short arbitration award, a one year deal that could very well mean a trade, and happy Oshie on a four or five year deal. I'm not too concerned, but it's more than just, "Oh, well, he's under contract, no problem."

jarmoismyhero 07-17-2012 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rumrokh (Post 52654691)
Worst case scenario, actually, is that he gets one year in arbitration, performs about the same in the upcoming season, and then files for arbitration again in a year. It would really handcuff the Blues and he would probably get to UFA status and leave. I doubt that happens, and two to three years of a very good player is still a pretty nice "worst case scenario," but the Blues could end up losing him to free agency.

The new CBA could change some details in there, but the differences are fairly significant among a short arbitration award, a one year deal that could very well mean a trade, and happy Oshie on a four or five year deal. I'm not too concerned, but 's more than just, "Oh, well, he's under contract, no problem."

Which is why I personally would like to see him traded if thay are getting the impression he wants to hit free agency.

bleedblue1223 07-18-2012 12:03 AM

Both sides seem to be on an agreement in the 4-6 year range. A deal will get done in the 11th hour and everyone will be assured that Oshie has a spot in our core/future.

rumrokh 07-18-2012 12:10 AM

Oops. I'm an idiot. For some reason, I was thinking you can't trade a player in the year after an arbitration award, but that's if you match an offer sheet. That was coloring my opinion (re: "handcuffing" the team).

So, yea, if it seems like Oshie's demands are ridiculous, I can definitely see the Blues getting him signed to a one-year arbitration award and then trading him. I don't think that'll happen - I think they'll get a longer term deal done. But I'd much prefer a one-year-deal-and-trade to multiple rounds of arbitration and reaching the point at which he's going to be unrestricted, worth less in a trade, and unlikely to stay.

kimzey59 07-18-2012 06:38 AM

I can't see arbitration going well for Oshie based strictly on the comparables.
Oshie going to have to use players like Mike Richards, James Neal, Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan and/or Corey Perry as the comp's if he wants a big payday, and frankly he doesn't have the stats to back that up. When you get into the next group of comp's, he's going to be lucky to get even 4 mil(Dustin Brown's 3.175 and Ryan Clowe's 3.625 set's the bar really low) .

Dolph Ziggler 07-18-2012 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bleedblue1223 (Post 52655521)
Both sides seem to be on an agreement in the 4-6 year range. A deal will get done in the 11th hour and everyone will be assured that Oshie has a spot in our core/future.

Let's hope.

I can't see Army going above 4.5 though nor should he IMO

jarmoismyhero 07-18-2012 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Inglorious One (Post 52660115)
Let's hope.

I can't see Army going above 4.5 though nor should he IMO

I personally would go over the 4.5 number something like 4.75 but only if he goes for 6 years. 4 years is a no go at that number. If he is determined to test the market this has got to be the year you look into trading him to get the LHD.

And no I am not talking about the JayBo. Think more of Yandle, Staal, MDZ types.

JustOneB4IDie 07-19-2012 03:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Inglorious One (Post 52660115)
Let's hope.

I can't see Army going above 4.5 though nor should he IMO

I can not see Oshie outearning McDonald, 4.7 Mil UFA after this season or Backes , 4.5 Million till 2015, so there you go.

jimmykay 07-19-2012 07:53 AM

I can see how Oshie could claim a Backes sized salary. He was given a 'prove it' contract, and everyone generally feels like he stepped up and really proved it. He avoided injury and has had very similar production to Backes a few years ago when he was given his current contract. a few less goals, but a few more assists. He has shown himself to be a key player on both ends of the ice and cemented himself as a top line forward. He's exciting to watch and a fan favorite. He helps put people in the seats and sells a ton of merchandise. I can see him getting between 4 and 5 per year. if i had to nail down a number, I say 4.5 for 4 years.

EDIT: Looks like I aimed high, but at least I got the last 3 years correct.


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