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-   -   Speculation: Reality about Goalkeeping. (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1239739)

TML1967 07-31-2012 04:00 PM

Reality about Goalkeeping.
 
Im getting pretty tired of people trying to value Goalkeeping and how important it is. People on here (surprise surprise) love to play to the extremes (OMGZ if we dont get Luongo lets TANK!!)


Looking at last season should be pretty easy to tell how much it is really worth.
Leafs gave up 259 Goals, and scored 227, or 3.16 against and 2.77 for.
Our team Save Percentage (SV%) was .9003 and we faced 2518 shots (minus empty net goals and the accompanied shots)
To make our Goals Against Average GAA = our Goals For Average (GFA) we would have needed a SV% of .910.
At a SV% of .910 we let in 226 goals, meaning we are a +1 on the season.
So SV% of 910 changes 24 goals, and moves us from the 29th worst GAA team to the 21st.

Amount of Goalies with a SV% at or above .910 last season was 54, so its not like we need a amazing Goalie to get to a surplus.
The ones most people are looking at:
Bernier = .909% so 229 GA.
Theodore = .917% so 208 GA.
Luongo = .919% so 204 GA.
Reimer = .921% so 199 GA (first season stats for those thinking he rebounds)
Kiprusoff = .921% so 199.
Halak = .926% so 186 GA.


The reason I chose these Goalies is mostly based on the ones the Leafs board talk about getting.
IMO IF Reimer plays somewhere between his .900 this season and his .921 first season, we should see a huge improvement. Obviously some of the other SV% may be products of systems or better teams, so we cant just plop them in and assume they make the same saves, but it is about as close as we can come to figuring out how much true benefit we get.


EDIT:
Note that only SIX teams in the East scored more than they got scored on (WSH+FLO being the two Playoff teams who didnt)

LeafsAllDay 07-31-2012 04:15 PM

its really foolish to count on a goalie bouncing back... Steve Mason & Andrew Raycroft are perfect examples of goalies, whom like Reimer performed exceptionally well in their rookie season only to have a reality check in the years to come.

Signing a goalie like Dan Ellis or Cris Huet for dirt cheap, short-term would be the best bet IMHO. It would give us the most options as it wouldn't cause us to rely solely on Reimer/Scrivens, it wouldn't push Reimer/Scrivens out of the picture like it would if we brought in a clear cut starter like Luongo and it wouldn't cost us very much at all.

cookie 07-31-2012 04:18 PM

Goalies are mostly a product of the system set in place. If you have a young run-and-gun team like the Leafs of last year, you are bound to see a high GA number.

I am wondering, personally, when the last time was when the Leafs were elite defensively. Were they perennial first/second round exits or were they legitimate contenders? I am under the thinking that a defense first style would not work here not because of the players but rather because of fans that want to see more goals.

studebaker17 07-31-2012 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookie (Post 53159891)
Goalies are mostly a product of the system set in place. If you have a young run-and-gun team like the Leafs of last year, you are bound to see a high GA number.

I am wondering, personally, when the last time was when the Leafs were elite defensively. Were they perennial first/second round exits or were they legitimate contenders? I am under the thinking that a defense first style would not work here not because of the players but rather because of fans that want to see more goals.

Pat burns teams

LordRamsay 07-31-2012 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookie (Post 53159891)
Goalies are mostly a product of the system set in place. If you have a young run-and-gun team like the Leafs of last year, you are bound to see a high GA number.

I am wondering, personally, when the last time was when the Leafs were elite defensively. Were they perennial first/second round exits or were they legitimate contenders? I am under the thinking that a defense first style would not work here not because of the players but rather because of fans that want to see more goals.

Yep, Pat Burns era, especially 1992-93.

Even the Quinn teams were poor defensively. Cujo/Eddie bailed them out most times. Of course it was a different league back then with all the obstruction.

DaveT83* 07-31-2012 04:58 PM

What I take from this is that the 2 starting goaltenders we currently have - need to perform better then they ever have in their NHL careers just to get into the top 54 goalies in league.

Great. Sounds like a real sure fire plan to me - might as well expect Stekel to score 40 while were at it.

AlmightyPO 07-31-2012 05:00 PM

Even if we are banking on Reimer playing better, I can't comprehend how we can go into next season without a veteran goalie. Putting the pressure of the entire team and city on two "rookies" will do nothing but destroy their confidence, especially if we have bad season.

Leafs87 07-31-2012 05:02 PM

We technically don't have a second goalie yet. Unless Scrivens gets the job, which will be embarrassing for me to say I still support the leafs after that..

We should really tank. How else are we going to get a number 1 center, goalie and defence men?

gravyface 07-31-2012 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leafs87 (Post 53161311)
We technically don't have a second goalie yet. Unless Scrivens gets the job, which will be embarrassing for me to say I still support the leafs after that..

We should really tank. How else are we going to get a number 1 center, goalie and defence men?

We need to see what Carlyle's system can do for this entire team and we need to see what we have in Reimer and to a lesser extent, Scrivens. This will likely result in a lottery pick next year, but there's also fairly realistic chance that this team improves upon last year's finish, even if it's on the outside looking in.

To put it another way: if Reimer rebounds and establishes himself as a good starter in this league, Kadri and Frattin secure a full-time position on the roster and have respectable seasons, but we finish 9th, is that a disastrous season?

416Leafer 07-31-2012 05:19 PM

Oh yay! A thread that looks at save % around the league and assumes that % wouldnt change when going from good teams / defensive teams to a bad team/ bad defensive team like the Leafs!

I love threads that completely ignore multiple important factors and make huge broad assumptions!

MJ65 07-31-2012 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TML1967 (Post 53159199)
Im getting pretty tired of people trying to value Goalkeeping and how important it is. People on here (surprise surprise) love to play to the extremes (OMGZ if we dont get Luongo lets TANK!!)


Looking at last season should be pretty easy to tell how much it is really worth.
Leafs gave up 259 Goals, and scored 227, or 3.16 against and 2.77 for.
Our team Save Percentage (SV%) was .9003 and we faced 2518 shots (minus empty net goals and the accompanied shots)
To make our Goals Against Average GAA = our Goals For Average (GFA) we would have needed a SV% of .910.
At a SV% of .910 we let in 226 goals, meaning we are a +1 on the season.
So SV% of 910 changes 24 goals, and moves us from the 29th worst GAA team to the 21st.

Amount of Goalies with a SV% at or above .910 last season was 54, so its not like we need a amazing Goalie to get to a surplus.
The ones most people are looking at:
Bernier = .909% so 229 GA.
Theodore = .917% so 208 GA.
Luongo = .919% so 204 GA.
Reimer = .921% so 199 GA (first season stats for those thinking he rebounds)
Kiprusoff = .921% so 199.
Halak = .926% so 186 GA.


The reason I chose these Goalies is mostly based on the ones the Leafs board talk about getting.
IMO IF Reimer plays somewhere between his .900 this season and his .921 first season, we should see a huge improvement. Obviously some of the other SV% may be products of systems or better teams, so we cant just plop them in and assume they make the same saves, but it is about as close as we can come to figuring out how much true benefit we get.


EDIT:
Note that only SIX teams in the East scored more than they got scored on (WSH+FLO being the two Playoff teams who didnt)

Goal tending is vital to any team's success (and I am talking about the facts not the fiction)

We were winning in the post lockout era i.e. late 90's and early 2000's because of solid goal tending namely CUJO and Eddie

gravyface 07-31-2012 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJ65 (Post 53162067)
Goal tending is vital to any team's success (and I am talking about the facts not the fiction)

We were winning in the post lockout era i.e. late 90's and early 2000's because of solid goal tending namely CUJO and Eddie

I think a defensive system in place that helps the goaltenders succeed can overcome any deficiencies in the goaltenders themselves. We don't need a goalie to stand on his head for us is kind of the point of the thread and one I agree with, but it takes team commitment to defence for that to happen.

TML1967 07-31-2012 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 416Leafer (Post 53161795)
Oh yay! A thread that looks at save % around the league and assumes that % wouldnt change when going from good teams / defensive teams to a bad team/ bad defensive team like the Leafs!

I love threads that completely ignore multiple important factors and make huge broad assumptions!

Wow thanks for reading almost half of the post!

If you actually read what I wrote, I say this. "Obviously some of the other SV% may be products of SYSTEMS or BETTER teams, so we cant just plop them in and assume they make the same saves, but it is about as close as we can come to figuring out how much true benefit we get."

If you have some way to look at a SV% on one team and show it on another, you will be every GM's best friend.

echlfreak 07-31-2012 06:11 PM

Honestly if we don't end up with Luongo or Bernier I don't mind Ellis as a cheap option...the guy was brutal with TB but so was Smith, Roloson, Garon etc... Once he got traded to Anaheim he went:

8-3-1 with a 2.39 GAA and a .917 SV%...under Randy's system

next season under Randy his record was brutal (Same as Hiller) but the numbers were there:

2.24 GAA and 0.928 SV% under Randy...not counting games under BB's system



I like his numbers under Randy and the price might be right? might be a good fit for Reimer too...I say a 1 year deal at 850k and it gives Scrivens one more year to develop!


By the way I might be retarded but I am starting to like Toronto's line up

Luup-JVR-Kessel
Kadri-Grabo-Kulemin
MacArthur-Connolly-Bozak
Lombardi-McClement-Steckel
Brown-Frattin

Not exact lines obviously but with a couple moves for a D man and one more big fwd I think it looks better than it has the past 3 years!

exporta 07-31-2012 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by echlfreak (Post 53163321)
Honestly if we don't end up with Luongo or Bernier I don't mind Ellis as a cheap option...the guy was brutal with TB but so was Smith, Roloson, Garon etc... Once he got traded to Anaheim he went:

8-3-1 with a 2.39 GAA and a .917 SV%...under Randy's system

next season under Randy his record was brutal (Same as Hiller) but the numbers were there:

2.24 GAA and 0.928 SV% under Randy...not counting games under BB's system



I like his numbers under Randy and the price might be right? might be a good fit for Reimer too...I say a 1 year deal at 850k and it gives Scrivens one more year to develop!


By the way I might be retarded but I am starting to like Toronto's line up

Luup-JVR-Kessel
Kadri-Grabo-Kulemin
MacArthur-Connolly-Bozak
Lombardi-McClement-Steckel
Brown-Frattin

Not exact lines obviously but with a couple moves for a D man and one more big fwd I think it looks better than it has the past 3 years!

I never gave Ellis much consideration, but seeing as there doesn't seem to be many options available I'd take him for a year.

I didn't follow him much in Anaheim but seems like Carlyle had some faith in him.

Eb 07-31-2012 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlmightyPO (Post 53161265)
Even if we are banking on Reimer playing better, I can't comprehend how we can go into next season without a veteran goalie. Putting the pressure of the entire team and city on two "rookies" will do nothing but destroy their confidence, especially if we have bad season.

Or start a successful career if we do well. Works both ways. Very risky IMO.

7even 07-31-2012 06:30 PM

I liked the part where you were like "let's get a top 54 goalie and then we wouldn't suck" and then you proceeded to suggest Jonathan Bernier, who's 73rd in ESV%. Seems like a step backwards, honestly.

AlmightyPO 07-31-2012 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eb (Post 53163675)
Or start a successful career if we do well. Works both ways. Very risky IMO.

How would bringing in a veteran backup prevent that from happening? There is really no downside.

Leafs87 07-31-2012 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gravyface (Post 53161559)
We need to see what Carlyle's system can do for this entire team and we need to see what we have in Reimer and to a lesser extent, Scrivens. This will likely result in a lottery pick next year, but there's also fairly realistic chance that this team improves upon last year's finish, even if it's on the outside looking in.

To put it another way: if Reimer rebounds and establishes himself as a good starter in this league, Kadri and Frattin secure a full-time position on the roster and have respectable seasons, but we finish 9th, is that a disastrous season?

I consider that worst then a disaster. No lottery pick or playoffs.

We need a huge season, not more baby steps to lead to 8 years of no playoffs or top prospect to compensate.

TML1967 07-31-2012 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 7even (Post 53163889)
I liked the part where you were like "let's get a top 54 goalie and then we wouldn't suck" and then you proceeded to suggest Jonathan Bernier, who's 73rd in ESV%. Seems like a step backwards, honestly.

Wasnt trying to suggest we get him, just his name has been tossed around allot on twitter and on here so thought id add him in to show how much he would actually help us.

If he is relatively cheap than sure, but if you cant put up good numbers while playing in LA last year, cant see how he becomes good here.

I guess the real argument I was trying to make is this: Is it worth a second round pick and Fratin (as has been suggested) to get him? Id say no

beauchamp 07-31-2012 07:26 PM

Delete, as I was mistaken...

:blush: and

:dunce: and

:o and

:booboo:

gravyface 07-31-2012 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leafs87 (Post 53164135)
I consider that worst then a disaster. No lottery pick or playoffs.

We need a huge season, not more baby steps to lead to 8 years of no playoffs or top prospect to compensate.

It doesn't work that way all the time though. You have to look at improvements, especially core, homegrown improvements as a building block to the future. If we made it to 8th place instead of 9th and got our ***** kicked in the 1st round, would that not still be an improvement? How much different is that than 9th? Truly? an extra 4-7 games, that's all.

beauchamp 07-31-2012 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TML1967 (Post 53159199)
Im getting pretty tired of people trying to value Goalkeeping and how important it is. People on here (surprise surprise) love to play to the extremes (OMGZ if we dont get Luongo lets TANK!!)


Looking at last season should be pretty easy to tell how much it is really worth.
Leafs gave up 259 Goals, and scored 227, or 3.16 against and 2.77 for.
Our team Save Percentage (SV%) was .9003 and we faced 2518 shots (minus empty net goals and the accompanied shots)
To make our Goals Against Average GAA = our Goals For Average (GFA) we would have needed a SV% of .910.
At a SV% of .910 we let in 226 goals, meaning we are a +1 on the season.
So SV% of 910 changes 24 goals, and moves us from the 29th worst GAA team to the 21st.

Amount of Goalies with a SV% at or above .910 last season was 54, so its not like we need a amazing Goalie to get to a surplus.
The ones most people are looking at:
Bernier = .909% so 229 GA.
Theodore = .917% so 208 GA.
Luongo = .919% so 204 GA.
Reimer = .921% so 199 GA (first season stats for those thinking he rebounds)
Kiprusoff = .921% so 199.
Halak = .926% so 186 GA.


The reason I chose these Goalies is mostly based on the ones the Leafs board talk about getting.
IMO IF Reimer plays somewhere between his .900 this season and his .921 first season, we should see a huge improvement. Obviously some of the other SV% may be products of systems or better teams, so we cant just plop them in and assume they make the same saves, but it is about as close as we can come to figuring out how much true benefit we get.


EDIT:
Note that only SIX teams in the East scored more than they got scored on (WSH+FLO being the two Playoff teams who didnt)

55 goalies played 16+ games (20% of the schedule).

The median is 28th. That was Nabokov at .914.

About your edit, strangely enough, Montreal, last in the Eastern conference, had a better differential at -7 than Washington (-8) anf Florida (-19).

TML1967 07-31-2012 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beauchamp (Post 53165577)
55 goalies played 16+ games (20% of the schedule).

The median is 28th. That was Nabokov at .914.

About your edit, strangely enough, Montreal, last in the Eastern conference, had a better differential at -7 than Washington (-8) anf Florida (-19).


I wasnt really looking at what the Leafs need to make the playoffs or be a 'good' team, more just at what SV% would there +- over the year be essentially 0. This is the best way to judge a team because some time you loose 5-1 and win 1-0, but still over 82 games should be an at least decent indicator. Nabokov wouldnt be a bad guy for the Leafs all things considered, wonder what it would cost them to grab him from the NYI...?

7even 07-31-2012 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beauchamp (Post 53165421)
Why lie?

On the list he used (nhl.com), he was actually tied for 55th at .909, not 73rd.

I wonder where you took that number from.

ESV% stands for even strength save percentage and I got that number right here: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...hSavePctg&pg=3. Bernier is right there in 73rd with a .901 ESV%. By comparison, James Reimer is tied for 48th with a .918. I'd appreciate it if you'd read my post over twice before calling me a liar.


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