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Top 10 Discussion
People started listing their top 10 Pens prospects in one of the recent voting threads and I thought it deserved it's own place so we could keep the discussion going. For reference, here's mine:
1. Joe Morrow 2. Simon Despres 3. Olli Maatta 4. Derrick Pouliot 5. Beau Bennett 6. Brian Dumoulin 7. Scott Harrington 8. Eric Tangradi 9. Tom Kuhnhackl 10. Robert Bortuzzo And here's the board voting results: 1. Joe Morrow 2. Simon Després 3. Brian Dumoulin 4. Beau Bennett 5. Derrick Pouliot 6. Scott Harrington 7. Olli Mättää 8. Eric Tangradi 9. Robert Bortuzzo 10. Brian Strait I had 9 of the 10 guys on the list but my order have some big movements in places. I'm not as crazy about our top 10 as most of the other posters around here I guess. After my top 3, there's a drop-off. Morrow, Despres and Maatta are all bluechippers. We also have major holes at forward and in goal. It's awesome to have arguably the best stable of defensive prospects but at the same time, we might want to start actively looking to move a few of them to address some of the glaring weaknesses our prospect system has. I'm the biggest BPA champion around, but even I don't understand the constant high selections of defensemen recently. In 3 of the past 4 years, our first two picks have been defenders and 4 of our last 5 first rounders were blueliners as well. The Pouliot pick still baffles me and if anything, I think that was our scouting department trying to be cute. There's no way that Pouliot was the best player available at that point in the draft. None. ****...if the Pens had taken Maatta at 8 I'd have at least understood it as he was consistently rated in the top 15 in a lot of the final rankings. To me, Pouliot was a borderline second rounder and still is. Yeah he's got potential but we missed a big opportunity to score one of the draft's top rated forwards (something we won't have the opportunity to do very often) and instead we swung at project offensive defensemen. Enough ranting...post your top 10, I'm always interested in how individuals rank our prospects, especially when it comes to NHL readiness versus potential. |
Pouliot was pretty consistently ranked around 20. Arguably the best offensive d-man in the draft. I don't really want to comment too much on the pick, but he was not a borderline 2nd rounder.
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just wondering IHWR, if Pouliot is a borderline 2nd rounder, why do u have him ranked 4th on your list?
I get that u don't like that we picked him 8th overall, I'm sure ur not alone in that, but he's not that bad of a pick if he is already our 4th/5th best prospect but anyway my top 10 would be similar 1. Morrow 2. Despres 3. Maatta 4. Dumoulin 5. Pouliot 6. Bennett 7. Harrington 8. Tangradi 9. Kuhnhackl 10. Bortuzzo |
1. Morrow
2. Despres 3. Bennett 4. Pouliot 5. Maatta 6. Harrington 7. Dumoulin 8. Tangradi 9. Strait 10. Kuhn |
Don't remember how I voted but here goes:
1. Joe Morrow 2. Simon Despres 3. Beau Bennett 4. Derrick Pouliot 5. Brian Dumoulin 6. Scott Harrington 7. Olli Maatta 8. Eric Tangradi 9. Brian Strait 10. Robert Bortuzzo Personally I wouldn't have included Tangradi, Strait and Bortuzzo so I'd have Hanowski, Kuhnhackl and Blueger in the 8, 9 and 10 spots. |
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In reality, maybe 3-4 of these top 10 guys will be NHL regulars. That's just based on historical data. For example, here's the Pens top 10 in the fall of 2008 according to Hockey's Future: 1. Alex Goligoski 2. Carl Sneep 3. Luca Caputi 4. Dustin Jeffrey 5. Brian Strait 6. Tyler Kennedy 7. Alex Grant 8. Casey Pierro-Zabotel 9. Nick Johnson 10. John Curry And here's the board voted top 10 from that same year: 1. Goligoski 2. Caputi 3. Jeffrey 4. Veilleux 5. Grant 6. Strait 7. Sneep 8. Johnson 9. Curry 10. Pierro-Zabotel Sure, those lists lack the young, top end first rounders that graduated...but the point remains, those were the top 10 prospects this team had and people still thought many if not most of them would crack the NHL. Here's hockey future's 2004 top 10: 1. Marc-Andre Fleury 2. Evgeni Malkin 3. Ryan Whitney 4. Noah Welch 5. Sergei Anshakov 6. Colby Armstrong 7. Maxime Talbot 8. Andy Chiodo 9. Matt Murley 10. Ben Eaves So that's my point. A small percentage of these prospects will enjoy an NHL career and my money's on Morrow, Despres and Maatta. Everyone else on my top 10 list have a shot, but they could and probably will bust out and never play more than a handful of NHL games. |
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Also, here is my completely unqualified top 10 (without Tangradi, Strait or Bort) Despres/Morrow interchangeable at 1 Maatta Pouliot Bennett Dumoulin Harrington Kuhnhackl Hanowski Uher/Wilson |
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Despres
Morrow Harrington Pouliot Maatta Dumoulin Bennett Tangradi Strait Bortuzzo I like Harrington more than most. I just think he's the smartest player in our system, and his WJC and Mem Cup performances coupled with various people in the know touting him as the best shutdown defenseman in junior hockey at 18 make for a pretty damn impressive prospect, and exactly the sort we need for our blueline. It could be argued that Dumoulin fits a similar role with more size and development, but to be honest I haven't seen much of him, and when I did see him at the WJCs his play didn't jump out at me. |
1. Joe Morrow
2. Simon Despres 3. Derrick Pouliot 4. Olli Maatta 5. Beau Bennett 6. Brian Dumoulin 7. Scott Harrington 8. Eric Tangradi 9. Robert Bortuzzo 10. D'Agostino |
Morrow
Despres Maatta Dumoulin Pouliot Bennett Harrington Bortuzzo Tangradi Strait |
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If you really want to talk about chances of making the pros, please take a look at the number of first round picks(league wide if you'd like) that make the pros. Looking at our prospects list, 1-7 are first round picks or Domoulin, and 8-10 are established prospects who are on the verge of the NHL (I lump Domoulin in this as well). As each round of the draft passes, the chances of them becoming an NHL player decreases as well. Comparing those lists of prospects is absolutely apples to oranges As a reference, the list you mentioned from 2008 1. 2nd round - Alex Goligoski 2. 2nd round - Carl Sneep 3. 4th round - Luca Caputi 4. 6th round - Dustin Jeffrey 5. 3rd round - Brian Strait 6. 4th round - Tyler Kennedy 7. 4th round - Alex Grant 8. 3rd round - Casey Pierro-Zabotel 9. 3rd round - Nick Johnson 10. undrafted - John Curry* Quite a bit different, I'm confident that barring injuries most of our top 10 will player in the NHL, not a small percentage |
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This is what I was talking about before. You're overrating out prospects like most posters do. Sure, 1st round picks have a higher success rate at cracking the NHL but the lower they get picked in the first, their chances for success drop significantly. On average, roughly half of the players selected in the first round don't make it to 200 career games played. We've got 5 first rounders in our top 10 so historical data suggest half of them won't become NHL regulars. So in all likelihood 2-3 of our first rounders will fizzle out, and I think that Bennett and Pouliot are the front runners. Hence why my list ranks Morrow, Despres and Maatta in my top 3 then Pouliot and Bennett next followed by the next wave of prospects. Could all 5 first rounders become NHL players? Sure, but it's not very likely to happen and there's even less of a chance that guys like Harrington and Dumoulin and Tangradi crack the roster for any extended period of time. It's a numbers game. Always has been. So I wouldn't get my hopes up to see too many of the guys play for the Pens. |
1 Morrow
2 Despres 3 Määttä 4 Pouliot 5 Harrington 6 Dumoulin 7 Bennett 8 Kühnhackl 9 Tangradi 10 Wilson |
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If they are top notch NHL capable prospects they will not just fizzle out because there isnt room here, they will be traded or they will win a spot and someone else will be traded How many games of Pouliot have you watched? He hasn't even gone through a camp and he is a front runner to fizzle out? Quit looking at our top 10 prospects as statistics, look at them as players, and think about what is going ot keep them from the NHL Depres/Morrow/Strait/Domoulin/Bortozzo are about a 90 percent shot to play significant time in NHL. Thats half the top 10, so I guess we should ignore the rest because statistics say so. Will they play 200 games? Who knows, injuries and other things happen but all of these players could compete for 82 games right now on someones roster |
1. Morrow
2. Despres 3. Dumoulin 4. Harrington 5. Bennett 6. Määttä 7. Pouliot 8. Tangradi 9. Kühnhackl 10. Bortuzzo Dumoulin and Despres should be within 1 spot of each other in each list. |
Tangradi, Bort and Strait aren't on my list as I don't think they're prospects anymore.
Joe Morrow Skill Morrow has an absolute bomb of a shot with a quick release. He also seems smart about taking something off of it just to get it on net creating chaos in front. His passing reminds me a little of Goligoski or Rafalski. He seems to know what he wants to do before he gets the puck and then moves it in the blink of an eye. IMO he's a smart passer more than a creative or natural one. He does go tape to tape well on long passes even to players in motion. I'm not sure of his overall speed, without question its good, but he is a powerful and mobile skater. He doesn't seem to be a puck rusher but he uses his skating to get to loose pucks and get them out of danger. Physical game When Morrow gets nasty I almost want to say he's like a Bieksa type but his passing is better and that nasty side isn't there all the time for that comparison to stick. The best that I can say about Morrow is that his compete level is high. He competes all over the ice and has the strength to back it up. He kind of reminds me of Letang in that aspect. Outlook He’s a very well rounded defenseman for the Pens. Even though he seems NHL ready I'm still hoping the Pens handle him, and all of their skilled defenseman, with kid gloves. They have to walk the fine line between letting them do what makes them great while weeding out the mistakes. Most of that is the mental game and IMO better handled at the AHL level. Also want to add that I think he's pretty sound defensively and pro coaching can weed out some small stuff. He over chases a little bit but the Pens seem to want that from their Dmen. Derek Puoliot Skill Pouliot has a great shot. Maybe not in Joe Morrows league in terms of being a terror but he gets it on net and can beat goalies. IMO his passing is his bread and butter. He's a special, pure passer. Like a Kaberle or Zubov. You can see him really zip a long pass but the thing is that its completely manageable by the receiver. He also has great vision and creativity. His sakting and look on the ice reminds me of Mark Giordano. He plays a different game than Gio but he is very active and doesn't really get caught up ice that much even when he gets in deep. He goes in, makes his play and gets right back into position, unlike Tanger. Physical game Maybe the biggest knock on DePo is his physical game. I think the effort is there but he's just not strong enough yet. I do fully think it will come and he'll end up being more well rounded than people think. Its in him as I've seen him play POed and thats when he's at his best. Outlook He’s a highly skilled PPQB. IMO he has a star quality about him. I'm sure he'll have some bumps and bruises along the way but he's just to good to fall flat. Like I said up top, I don't think he's that bad defensively. He makes some correctable mistakes and some of his shortcomings stem from strength issues. Brian Dumoulin Skill Doumolin has a big slap shot and can get it on net. I don’t think he’s be an overly offensive player but he does have some skill and a sense of how to use it. While not being the most creative defenseman he does have a sense and touch for outlet passes. Kind of like what you see from a defenseman like Robyn Regehr. He’ll break up plays defensively and move the puck up ice right away. So while he might not get a ton of points he did start the play up ice. His game is more about positioning than skating but he is stong on his skates and is active. I would like to see him become a little more nimble and work on his foot speed but he is actually a really good skater for someone his size. Physical game He’s big and strong but not overly nasty. Dumoulin is more about defensive sense and poise while still being physically involved in a seaweed/ body positioning type way. Outlook While I do think he’ll be more of a defensive defenseman that doesn’t mean he lacks skill. He has a sense about passing and does go tape to tape well. I think if all goes well he can be a Mattias Ohlund type player. Simon Despres Skill He has a very good shot and gets a lot of power from his legs. He also has some sense about sneaking into the slot area to get off shots and knows that sometimes its just best to throw pucks on net. Despres passes well when moving pucks up ice but I wouldn’t really call him a playmaker. Its more about him going tape to tape well on outlet passes rather than being a defenseman that just goes up off the glass to clear pucks. At time he does try to force plays and that when I think he gets in trouble. For a player his size Despres is a great and active skater. Not only is he fast but really nimble too. He’s really good at closing gaps and can even keep up with a great skater while going backwards. Just in terms of his skating and size alone he has a look of Iafrate on the ice. I don’t think he’ll be an overly offensive player but he does join plays up ice and can get back in a heartbeat. Physical game If Despres ever developed a mean streak… watch out. He has the skating and size to hit and hurt but often doesn’t. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t get involved but he’s just not a naturally mean player. There are time he gets agitated and that’s when he’s down right beastly. Almost in a Jovo cop type of way. Outlook Some people don’t like the comparison but I think he’s going to be close to Orpik. A little less physical and a little bit better passer but IMO he will be a really mobile defensive defenseman. He’ll cover a lot of ground and can gallop pucks out of trouble. While his size and skating make him seem NHL ready I would like to see him back in WB just to clean up some rough edges. Like working on his poise with the puck, making safe plays and not over chasing. Scott Harrington Skill Harrington has a good shot. The thing that makes it better is that he knows how to jump into shooting lanes and play off of his partner. Harrington has a sense for the flow of the game and knows how to break up plays and turn them around. He goes tape to tape well even at a distance and makes safe smart passes. He’s not overly creative but he does have a nice touch. Its hard to say but Harringtons a smooth skater with the slightest bit of a short stride. He is very mobile, turns well and skates well backwards. Physical game His games more about sense but he does get in the mix. His physical game reminds me of Scuds a little. He’s smart about boxing players out instead of bulldozing and is pretty tough to beat one on one. Outlook He’s one of those players that does everything well but isn’t flashy at all. He has skill to be a 2nd PP type but its his defensive game and sense that makes him so good. I kind of see him being a Bruce Driver type. Not a star but pretty important to his team. Olli Maatta Skill Maatta has a really good shot and likes to use it. I'm not so sure its overy hard but he does get it on net and is smart enough to understand shooting lanes. Maatta can really zip a puck tape to tape. He's also creative but tries to force a lot of plays. I'm hoping the Pens can walk the fine line of letting him do his thing while curbing bad habits. I do think that once becoming a pro he will simplify his game a little bit and the cleaner pro game will help him out. Maatta covers a lot of ice and is a very active player. I don't think he's that fast right now but his foot speed is good and he keeps his legs churning. In terms of a look on the ice he reminds me a lot of a young Gonchar. Physical game Maatta has good size but is not physical in terms of hitting. He is involved all over the ice and pressures pucks well. He ties up players in front of the net, blocks shots and will take hits to make the right play. He's a gamer and competes up and down the ice. Also want to mention that he will stick up for himself and his team. He's not wimpy by any means. Outlook Maatta is definately a risk taker. He jumps up into the play and tries some high risk plays. IMO he does more good than bad but he does force plays... a lot. He has to simplify parts of his game and the question is if he can do that while also putting up numbers. The Pens seem to really like active defenseman so maybe he'll fit right in and they groom him the right way. Beau Bennett Skill BB's shot is more about accuracy and a good release than being overly powerfull. He also uses his sense to get open in the offensive zone and always seems to be in the middle of the ice. Bennetts passing is his bread and butter. He knows how to get pucks and move them quickly or slow the play down until support is there. He also knows the bait and lure game. He'll wait until he can lure someone out of position, have support fill that lane and then pass the puck to the player he's just created room for. It almost seems like he's lazy because he doesn't always drive the net but theres a high hockey IQ there. Bennetts skating reminds me of Morozov a little. BB is a stronger player but thats the kind of look he has on the ice. I would still like to see him get stronger but thats normal of a kid his age. I would also like to see him get better stickhandling while moving his feet. Physical game BB's physical game reminds me a little of Larry Murphy's. He'll let you get the puck and then try and take it from you. He has good size but isn't that agressive. He plays more of a thinking mans game. Outlook Bennetts best gift, even over his passing, is his sense. He knows how to work off of other players and knows the position game. I'm not so sure that he'll be a star player but I do think he'll be a good player that can enhance a stars game. I see him as more of a swing man type of winger. Someone that can take a headman pass, wait for support and then make a great neutral zone pass. Jason Pominville is a nice comparison that was made when he was drafted and I still think that holds true. Teddy Blueger Skill Bluegers shot is good not great. He can pick corners but his shot isn't that much of a weapon. That being said he is sneaky and creative. I think most of his goals will be from dekes, chips and hanging around the slot. Blues sense for passing is uncanny. He knows how to lead a player and deaden the puck so that the player skates into it. He also has a sense for the game and understands that sometimes you just put the puck in good areas and everything will take care of itself. He also makes these "bloopy" little passes that get behind a defender after he's lured them in. Blueger is a very mobile shifty skater but looks kind of strange on the ice. Almost like a skier. He always keeps his legs bent and his body is hunched over. Kind of like the old Russains. Physical game This kids IQ must be off the charts because I've seen him twice and he always seems 10' away from the puck but he never looks like he's skating hard. This is in all zones. He hounds the puck well and while not overly physical he does play that annoying type of game of getting between the player and puck. Outlook I liken his game to Krejci. Well rounded, crafty and while not overly physical... very involved. He has a playmakers knack for time and space. His game reminds me a little of the old Russains as its more about advancing up ice rather than streak up it. Dominik Uher Skill Uher has a better wrister shot than slapper. He seems to like to streak down LW and use a far side shot to beat goalie. IMO his shot is one of the more under rated parts of his game. I think he projects as more of a bottom 6 guy that can do some spot duty in the top 6 but Uher is not just a checker. He has offensive sense and will bust up ice for scoring chances. He reads plays well and is pretty crafty with the puck. I like that he can work the boards and make a play instead of just throwing the puck into safe areas. He also is smart about carrying the puck and does have the ability to drive wide. Uher has a style and look on the ice like Max Talbot. He's a good skater that keeps his feet moving more than he is fast. He has a little bit of chop to his stride like Max did but I do think he's a stronger skater than Talbot in terms of balance. Physical game He's a gamer and a great energy guy. I think he'll be one of those player that can change the mood of a game with 1 energy filled shift. He has that buzz about him like Vitale or TK. Outlook While I do think he's more of a bottom 6er, Uher is not without skill and sense. It might actually be better to call him a middle 6er... if that makes any sense. I like him a lot and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a long look this year. |
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My top 10 1 Joe Morrow 2 Simon Despres 3 Beau Bennett 4 Brian Dumoulin 5 Ollii Maatta 6 Derick Pouliot 7 Scott Harrington 8 Tom Kuhnhackl 9 Teddy Bluegger 10 Anton Zlbobin/Mattia Marcantuoni/Oscar Sundqvist |
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It didn't sound like you liked my 200 games parameter. So what constitutes a prospect becoming an NHL regular? To me, if you play +200 games, you've got close to 3 seasons so you're good...you play regularly. I treat prospects like statistics because there is empirical data to support their success rates. There was a really good paper I read awhile ago that tracked the success rate of prospects drafted from 1990-99. It's interesting stuff and confirms a lot of what you might already think. I'll try and dig it up if I can. It's funny because most of these prospects haven't even played a professional game, yet you're pretty sure they, along with most of our top end pro prospects, will play a significant yet to be determined number of games in the NHL. I've been around prospects long enough to know for every 5 or 10 guys that look like players one season, maybe 1 maxes out and duplicates that success in the NHL. It's awesome you like our prospect this much, but you're hoping against hope on this one. There's no way we produce 7 NHL defensemen from this crop...it just doesn't ever happen. Even 3-4 would be a stretch to be honest. So I'm dying to know. How many players in this top 10 become NHL regulars according to you? Please try not to have the percentage too laughably high. |
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Of our current crop of prospects, I think Morrow and Despres are top 4 defensemen, and will contribute at a high level in the NHL. The rest, not too sure. If I had to pick a 3rd, it'd probably be Dumoulin. I think there's a lot of time between Maatta and Pouliot being NHL ready where a lot of things could happen.
I wasn't a fan of the Pouliot pick, but I'm not going to freak out over it either. In my ideal drafting world, I personally feel trading that pick was the best option, as I really wasn't sold on Forsberg from everything I read on him, and Grigorenko seemed to have a lot of warts on him too. When something pops up on a prospect like, "didn't look as dominant against men," that's a flag for me as top 10 picks are usually fairing extremely well against guys who are 4+ years older than them. That was my biggest concern about Forsberg. Dumba is probably the guy I would have liked the most and he went 1 pick earlier. |
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