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HF Article 08-10-2012 03:00 PM

Alex Galchenyuk among many new faces in Montreal Canadiens? Fall 2012 Top 20
 

The Montreal Canadiens have vastly improved their organizational depth with the addition of their 2012 NHL Entry Draft selections, though it could take four to five years to ultimately see the results. Five of the team's seven new draftees have such high skill levels at this stage of their development that they have made the Canadiens' Top 20 list.



Newly drafted Alex Galchenyuk has supplanted Nathan Beaulieu as the number one prospect in the Montreal Canadiens' organization. Blake Geoffrion has dropped the most on the Top 20 list but it's more due to the increase of talent and improvement of a few others.… read more



More...

shortcat1 08-10-2012 08:25 PM

This isn't directly related to the top 20 list itself. It has to do with the ratings of the prospects in the system, especially the wingers.

RIGHT WING PROSPECTS

1. Sebastian Collberg 8.0 D
2. Danny Kristo 7.5 C
3. Brendan Gallagher 7.5 C
4. Aaron Palushaj 7.0 C
5. Patrick Holland 7.0 C
6. Steve Quailer 7.0 D
7. Alexander Avtsin 7.0 D
8. Alain Berger 7.0 D
9. Maxim Trunev 7.0 D
10. Ian Schultz 6.0 D


LEFT WING PROSPECTS

1. Charles Hudon 7.5 D
2. Tim Bozon 7.5 D
3. Mark MacMillan 7.0 D
4. Olivier Archambault 7.0 D
5. Philippe Lefebvre 6.5 D
6. Blake Geoffrion 6.0 B
7. John Westin 6.0 D


What's with all the 'D' probabilities? The ratings are almost self-contradictory. My goodness, out of 17 prospects, 12 of them are rated 'D' in terms of probabilities. That's a whole lot of prospects who are 'unlikely' to reach their potential. That's a whole lot of potential second liners who won't even make it to NHL.

Since, according to the numerical ratings, a prospect with a potential rating o. f 7 and up could become at least a second line, a top six player. So, in this list, we see nine prospects who could become top six players yet are unlikely to make it to that level. They are also categorized as being, more likely, 'Top minor league' players.

The reason I say this is that there's no way skill players like Collberg, Quailer, Avtsin, Hudon, Bozon, MacMillan or Archambeault will fit on a fourth line. A third line, maybe for some of them but even that is disputable.

It's kind of discouraging.

Punkeater 08-10-2012 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HF Article (Post 53458367)
The Montreal Canadiens have vastly improved their organizational depth with the addition of their 2012 NHL Entry Draft selections, though it could take four to five years to ultimately see the results. Five of the team's seven new draftees have such high skill levels at this stage of their development that they have made the Canadiens' Top 20 list.



Newly drafted Alex Galchenyuk has supplanted Nathan Beaulieu as the number one prospect in the Montreal Canadiens' organization. Blake Geoffrion has dropped the most on the Top 20 list but it's more due to the increase of talent and improvement of a few others.… read more



More...

Nice article but where is Brady Vail? He's not in the charts too.

MXD 08-10-2012 08:46 PM

Not exactly sure how Thrower can be BELOW Dietz...

Forsead 08-10-2012 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shortcat1 (Post 53468245)
This isn't directly related to the top 20 list itself. It has to do with the ratings of the prospects in the system, especially the wingers.

RIGHT WING PROSPECTS

1. Sebastian Collberg 8.0 D
2. Danny Kristo 7.5 C
3. Brendan Gallagher 7.5 C
4. Aaron Palushaj 7.0 C
5. Patrick Holland 7.0 C
6. Steve Quailer 7.0 D
7. Alexander Avtsin 7.0 D
8. Alain Berger 7.0 D
9. Maxim Trunev 7.0 D
10. Ian Schultz 6.0 D


LEFT WING PROSPECTS

1. Charles Hudon 7.5 D
2. Tim Bozon 7.5 D
3. Mark MacMillan 7.0 D
4. Olivier Archambault 7.0 D
5. Philippe Lefebvre 6.5 D
6. Blake Geoffrion 6.0 B
7. John Westin 6.0 D


What's with all the 'D' probabilities? The ratings are almost self-contradictory. My goodness, out of 17 prospects, 12 of them are rated 'D' in terms of probabilities. That's a whole lot of prospects who are 'unlikely' to reach their potential. That's a whole lot of potential second liners who won't even make it to NHL.

Since, according to the numerical ratings, a prospect with a potential rating o. f 7 and up could become at least a second line, a top six player. So, in this list, we see nine prospects who could become top six players yet are unlikely to make it to that level. They are also categorized as being, more likely, 'Top minor league' players.

The reason I say this is that there's no way skill players like Collberg, Quailer, Avtsin, Hudon, Bozon, MacMillan or Archambeault will fit on a fourth line. A third line, maybe for some of them but even that is disputable.

It's kind of discouraging.

It's kind of ridiculous to see Hudon and Bozon with the same rating.... Bozon is clearly a way better prospect.

David Thicke 08-10-2012 08:58 PM

Here's my rankings for the rest of the Montreal Canadiens prospects who were not on the Top 20 list for the article. You can compare them to this board's rankings which you polled earlier.

After the Top 20 prospects:

21. (18) Alexander Avtsin, RW 7.0D
This will be his third year in the AHL and needs to bring the intensity and physical game to the rink each night. Avtsin has good offensive talent and skills, just doesn't seem to show the desire or any consistency. Gallagher being in the AHL with Hamilton could really spark players like him. He dropped off of the Top 20 list because Nattinen shows more of an all-round game.

22. (19) Brendon Nash, D, 6.5C
Missed the whole year with shoulder surgery and needs to show his form before the injury, is still there.

23. (NR) Mark Macmillan, LW, 7.0D
MacMillan could move up if he improves this season at UND on his good freshman year. He could get to play with Kristo on the first line and then we'll really see what he's has as far as talent goes. The lanky winger needs to get bigger to play his physical style of play and has three more years of development at UND to show more improvement.

24. (NR)* Brady Vail, C, 6.5C
Vail is a good shutdown centerman and could have some offensive upside. He needs to improve his skating, shot and patience with the puck. The big centerman should bring better offensive numbers this coming season in the OHL.

25. (20) Daniel Pribyl, C, 6.5C
He’s another big centerman. He's a bigger version similar to Plekanec with good offensive upside if he ever comes to North America. Others above him just showed more improvement and he will need to come to N.A in order to take the next step in his development.

26. (NR) Josiah Didier, D, 6.5C
Didier is similar to Nash and Pateryn, very defensive minded but less offensive so far at the NCAA level. A real physical, shot blocking defensive defenseman. He plays big minutes as a shutdown defender and on the penalty killing unit but has more offensive upside and will only get bigger and stronger. He needs to improve his puck moving and offensive game.

27. (NR) Gabriel Dumont, C, 6.5C
Dumont is similar type to Gallagher with less offensive potential but plays a more physical game. He doesn't back down but needs to improve his overall game this season to keep playing with the Canadiens’ organization.

28. (NR)* Erik Nystrom, LW, 6.5C
Nystrom could be higher up on this list and his rating. He has a chance of playing for Sweden in the WJC Tournament this year. He has good offensive upside and makes things happen almost every time he's on the ice. Hope to see him at the WJC to determine where he really fits but believe he might be higher up in the ratings.

29. (NR) Olivier Archambault, LW 6.5C dropped from 7.0D
He needs to bring a better attitude towards work ethic and using his teammates. He has to improve his defensive game or he might not receive an entry level contract by the end of this year. Just because he's Quebec- born doesn't mean he's automatically going to get the next step with the Canadiens. He will need to earn it because he won't make it on raw talent alone.

30. (21) Magnus Nygren, D, 6.5C
He needs a lot of overall defensive improvement but has an outstanding shot from the point and more of a puck moving, power play specialists at this point. If he can't improve his defensive game then he could be released similar to John Westin at the June 2013 deadline.

31. (NR) Ian Schultz, RW, 6.0D
Schultz improved a lot this past year but needs to take the next step. He will only get to the NHL with hard work, better skating, some offensive skills and playing a really physical game.

32. (NR) Colin Sullivan, D, 6.5C
Sullivan will start his freshman season at the NCAA level for Boston College and we will get a really good look at how good a skater and what kind of defensive game he possesses. The big defender will have four year of development at B.C so it's too early to tell where he really fits on this list.

33. (NR) Peter Delmas, G, 6.5C
He's better than Mayer and should be the Bulldogs back-up this season behind Desjardins. It takes time to develop a young goalie so he needs to learn behind a good veteran and up his skill level against better players in the AHL.

34. (NR) Philippe Lefebvre, LW, 6.5D
He's a good two-way player but need to bring more offense and more physicality to his game. If he doesn't improve out of training camp them he might find himself in the ECHL to improve his offensive game.

35. (NR) Alain Berger, RW, 6.5D from 7.0D
He seems like a younger Blunden but this was only his rookie season in the AHL so let's see if he progresses in his development as a possible power forward. Berger has a really good shot just doesn't use it enough and needs to widen his skating stance and get more knee flex over the toes of his skates. He's just too upright to generate any power, balance or speed which is normal for a tall man. Berger could see time in the ECHL to help regain his confidence in scoring.

36. (NR) Maxim Trunev, RW, 6.5D from 7.0D
He doesn't seem to be very interested in playing in N.A.as he signed a three year contract to play for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl of the KHL. He will get the opportunity to prove himself and improve his overall game on the new team being re-built after the tragic plane crash last September. It is highly unlikely that the Russian will be coming to the NHL any time soon.

37. (NR) Robert Mayer, G, 6.0C
Mayer has consistency problems and needs to put it together right out of training camp or could end up as the odd man out in Hamilton. He might see time in the ECHL.

38. (NR) Dustin Walsh, C, 6.0D
Walsh needs to stay healthy for the whole year and show his offensive game at the NCAA level. He could find himself without a contract after finishing school.

39. (NR) Michael Cichy, C, 6.0D
He has two years to show his offensive game that the Canadiens show when they drafted him. The transfer to WMU might help with Murray as his coach because he needs to improve his work ethic and prove that he made the right decision leaving UND.

40. (NR) Joe Stejskal, D, 5.5C
Stejskal struggled in his rookie AHL season and never show his physical defensive style. You can be a minus 15 rating if you don't have an offensive game and supposed to be a shutdown defensive defender. He could find himself in the ECHL or in the stands if he doesn't improve his overall game this season.

DogsFan* 08-10-2012 09:06 PM

I'd definitely switch Dumont and Avtsin. Also, really hoping Nash can regain his form from before he got injured. He's a solid defenceman if he's healthy.

Watsatheo 08-10-2012 09:49 PM

Good job overall but I think a few of the ratings are too high.

Joonas Nattinen 7.0D
Alain Berger 7.0D
Brendon Nash 6.5C
Greg Pateryn 6.5C
Magnus Nygren 6.5C
Colin Sullivan 6.5C
Philippe Lefebvre 6.5D


I think it should be somewhat relative to their fellow prospects or else it seems kinda clustered (especially the D where Bennett isn't differentiated from Nash or Pateryn). I'm not sure Nattinen will become top 6 players even if he pans out (that's IMO though). I'd have it:

Joonas Nattinen 6.5C
Alain Berger 6.0F
Brendon Nash 6.0C
Greg Pateryn 6.0C
Magnus Nygren 6.5D
Colin Sullivan 6.5D
Philippe Lefebvre 6.0F

I'd make Palushaj to a 6.5B since he seems more like a 2nd/3rd line tweener and has half a season under his belt.

poetryinmotion 08-10-2012 09:56 PM

It's a heck of a crapshoot to rank prospects but I don't think Galchenyuk should have a C.

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by poetryinmotion (Post 53470415)
It's a heck of a crapshoot to rank prospects but I don't think Galchenyuk should have a C.

Why? What should his rating be? Didn't play much last year so difficult to place him higher and don't believe he's lower. His rating could be changed by the next Top 20 list.

poetryinmotion 08-10-2012 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Thicke (Post 53470619)
Why? What should his rating be? Didn't play much last year so difficult to place him higher and don't believe he's lower. His rating could be changed by the next Top 20 list.

I'm just nitpicking. It wasn't so much a "you've ranked him wrong" but a "you had no choice and I get it but he's a pretty safe bet to reach his potential imo" disagreement.

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DogsFan (Post 53469211)
I'd definitely switch Dumont and Avtsin. Also, really hoping Nash can regain his form from before he got injured. He's a solid defenceman if he's healthy.

I want to but Avtsin has so much unrealized offensive potential compared to Dumont. I love Dumont attitude and passion just wish Avtsin could play with that kind of emotion but it's just not his character. The Russian could end up going to the KHL if it doesn't work out in N.A. I am not convinced that he will make here and that's why I dropped him off the Top 20 list.

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by poetryinmotion (Post 53470691)
I'm just nitpicking. It wasn't so much a "you've ranked him wrong" but a "you had no choice and I get it but he's a pretty safe bet to reach his potential imo" disagreement.

It's okay, nitpicking is allowed and always helpful when presented with your reasons. I think he should reach his potential too IMO but if he were to say injure the knee again would you be so sure of his making it. There one thing I have learned about prospects is that there are no sure bets outside of generation talents, Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin etc.

Thanks for at least reading the article.:cheers:

poetryinmotion 08-10-2012 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Thicke (Post 53470823)
It's okay, nitpicking is allowed and always helpful when presented with your reasons. I think he should reach his potential too IMO but if he were to say injure the knee again would you be so sure of his making it. There one thing I have learned about prospects is that there are no sure bets outside of generation talents, Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin etc.

Thanks for at least reading the article.:cheers:

You did a really great job with the prospects rankings, I agree with the order. The top 7 is precisely how I would have done it.

Cheers. :)

HABS2DCUP 08-10-2012 10:23 PM

Our left wing depth is quite weak...

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Watsatheo (Post 53470299)
Good job overall but I think a few of the ratings are too high.

Joonas Nattinen 7.0D
Alain Berger 7.0D
Brendon Nash 6.5C
Greg Pateryn 6.5C
Magnus Nygren 6.5C
Colin Sullivan 6.5C
Philippe Lefebvre 6.5D


I think it should be somewhat relative to their fellow prospects or else it seems kinda clustered (especially the D where Bennett isn't differentiated from Nash or Pateryn). I'm not sure Nattinen will become top 6 players even if he pans out (that's IMO though). I'd have it:

Joonas Nattinen 6.5C
Alain Berger 6.0F
Brendon Nash 6.0C
Greg Pateryn 6.0C
Magnus Nygren 6.5D
Colin Sullivan 6.5D
Philippe Lefebvre 6.0F

I'd make Palushaj to a 6.5B since he seems more like a 2nd/3rd line tweener and has half a season under his belt.

Berger was dropped from a 7.0D as it doesn't look like his junior level offensive game will translate to the pro-level. Some of the other will be coming down by the next Top 20 list depending on their development. Some times the light bulb goes on in the prospect's head and he put it all together and other times poof darkness!

Palushaj 6.5B or 7.0C pretty much the same but I am not sure he will actually make the NHL playing for the Canadiens. You never know what's going to happen, it's just a guess.

The biggest problem with defensemen is, what's more important to you personally? Is it the offensive or defensive side of the game? You ideally want a mix of players with both but it's difficult to find them. Bennett can ultimately be rated higher than Nash, Pateryn because he has better offensive potential but his defensive play is suspect compared to the other two so right now they look equal. It's possible that Nash and Pateryn end up as 6.0B where Bennett could develop into 7.0 or even 7.5B if he puts it all together but that's the big IF. It's hard to make a defensive defenseman more offensive minded but it's easy to make an offensive defender just stay back more and pick his open spots better and concentrate more of the defenisve side to his game. Ex. Gorges isn't going to become more offensive but PK can improve more defensively while still being able to bring offense.

I hope that explains a little more my way of thinking when I choose their ratings and rankings.:cheers:

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forsead (Post 53468785)
It's kind of ridiculous to see Hudon and Bozon with the same rating.... Bozon is clearly a way better prospect.

Depends on how you look at it. Bozon is a sniper, natural goal scorer but isn't as physical or as hard working as Hudon. Bozon could end up being a one-trick pony, just a scorer who can't do other things then if he doesn't score at the pro-level, he doesn't have any other aspects to his game to play in the NHL. Hudon is good all-round player but it's his size that dropped his draft selection not his skill level.

How do you see them and why?

David Thicke 08-10-2012 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shortcat1 (Post 53468245)
This isn't directly related to the top 20 list itself. It has to do with the ratings of the prospects in the system, especially the wingers.

RIGHT WING PROSPECTS

1. Sebastian Collberg 8.0 D
2. Danny Kristo 7.5 C
3. Brendan Gallagher 7.5 C
4. Aaron Palushaj 7.0 C
5. Patrick Holland 7.0 C
6. Steve Quailer 7.0 D
7. Alexander Avtsin 7.0 D
8. Alain Berger 7.0 D
9. Maxim Trunev 7.0 D
10. Ian Schultz 6.0 D


LEFT WING PROSPECTS

1. Charles Hudon 7.5 D
2. Tim Bozon 7.5 D
3. Mark MacMillan 7.0 D
4. Olivier Archambault 7.0 D
5. Philippe Lefebvre 6.5 D
6. Blake Geoffrion 6.0 B
7. John Westin 6.0 D


What's with all the 'D' probabilities? The ratings are almost self-contradictory. My goodness, out of 17 prospects, 12 of them are rated 'D' in terms of probabilities. That's a whole lot of prospects who are 'unlikely' to reach their potential. That's a whole lot of potential second liners who won't even make it to NHL.

Since, according to the numerical ratings, a prospect with a potential rating o. f 7 and up could become at least a second line, a top six player. So, in this list, we see nine prospects who could become top six players yet are unlikely to make it to that level. They are also categorized as being, more likely, 'Top minor league' players.

The reason I say this is that there's no way skill players like Collberg, Quailer, Avtsin, Hudon, Bozon, MacMillan or Archambeault will fit on a fourth line. A third line, maybe for some of them but even that is disputable.

It's kind of discouraging.

Don't be discouraged. Gallagher was a 7.5D when he was drafted so their development is up to the prospect and how much passion, desire and work ethic they have in them to make the NHL. The Habs prospects have taken a big jump in talent and next year you will probably see Bergevin draft more physical or bigger players to round out the depth of the team.

You are right about some prospects who have offensive talent but no physical game or other aspects to fall back on then they are boom or bust. There are a group of prospect who just won't make it because it's first or second line or out of the NHL.

You have to remember that these are kids who can mature into good NHL players or never make it all because their potential peaked at College or Junior or even minor pro-levels. That's why teams draft players each year, just hoping to get better than two picks out of their seven who can play in the NHL. It's always been a crap shoot.

Thanks for read the article!:cheers:

David Thicke 08-10-2012 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HABS2DCUP (Post 53471185)
Our left wing depth is quite weak...

It's better than it was at this time last year. The goalie depth is probably the worst of the whole team. We are lucky that we have Price because we don't have any young goalie prospects other than Delmas and I am not sure he's more than a back-up at best. desjardins isn't considered a prospect because he's over 25 years old. The habs have time to find some raw talented and long term goaltender prospects in the next couple of drafts.

David Thicke 08-10-2012 11:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by poetryinmotion (Post 53470935)
You did a really great job with the prospects rankings, I agree with the order. The top 7 is precisely how I would have done it.

Cheers. :)

Thank you! We could have ten people do the top 20 list and we would all have some differences, it's just the way we see it. Glass half full or empty, offense or defense is better! There will be more changes by the next top 20 list.

MooseOllini 08-10-2012 11:56 PM

Gally is our best rated talent with 8.5 since Price's 9.0 :yo:

Vasculio 08-11-2012 06:12 AM

Nice ratings, follows what most of us did when we rated them not too long ago. Good job ! :yo:

DAChampion 08-11-2012 10:15 AM

Gabriel Dumont is ranked 27th, but the management actually likes him, he got to play 3 games this year.

I think his internal ranking is probably higher than 27th.

feds91 08-11-2012 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobBarker (Post 53473705)
Gally is our best rated talent with 8.5 since Price's 9.0 :yo:

what were subban, max pac and ryan mcdonagh's ratings? just curious.

otto bond 08-11-2012 10:40 AM

Really nice read....what a prospect pool we had and now have due to the 2012 picks.


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