HFBoards

HFBoards (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/index.php)
-   Prospects (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1244645)

Trae 08-10-2012 10:34 PM

2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout
 
I was wondering if anybody could verify that this is how the breakdown of lottery balls would go for the 2013 draft assuming there is a lockout. I never followed the draft closely until after 2005 and despite looking it up, I still have a question: If a team was in the playoffs more than once in the past 3 years, does that mean they only get 1 ball? Because that is how I have done it below, but I am still unsure. And if there was, by some ridiculous chance, a full season lockout, do you think the NHL would go with this same method (including the snake draft)? If not, does anybody have an idea for a better system?

This is what I was going by:
Quote:

The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Anaheim (1 playoff appearance)
Boston (3 playoff appearances)
Buffalo (2 playoff appearances)
Calgary (0 playoff appearances)
Carolina (0 playoff appearances)
Chicago (3 playoff appearances)
Colorado (1 playoff appearance)
Columbus (0 playoff appearances)
Dallas (0 playoff appearances)
Detroit (3 playoff appearances)
Edmonton (0 playoff appearances, 3 first overall picks,)
Florida (1 playoff appearance)
Los Angeles (3 playoff appearances)
Minnesota (0 playoff appearances)
Montreal (2 playoff appearances)
Nashville (3 playoff appearances)
New Jersey (2 playoff appearances)
New York I. (0 playoff appearances, 1 first overall pick)
New York R. (2 playoff appearances)
Ottawa (2 playoff appearances)
Philadelphia (3 playoff appearances)
Phoenix (3 playoff appearances)
Pittsburgh (3 playoff appearances)
San Jose (3 playoff appearances)
St. Louis (1 playoff appearance)
Tampa Bay (1 playoff appearance)
Toronto (0 playoff appearances)
Vancouver (3 playoff appearances)
Washington (3 playoff appearances)
Winnipeg (0 playoff appearances)

TEAMS WITH THREE BALLS (7)
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg

TEAMS WITH TWO BALLS (6)
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York (I), St. Louis, Tampa Bay

TEAMS WITH ONE BALL (17)
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (R), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington

:dunno:

HABS2DCUP 08-10-2012 11:25 PM

I really hope your wrong... BEcause if the Habs only have one ball then our chances of landing a top 5 pick are verrry slim. If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?

Marc the Habs Fan 08-10-2012 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HABS2DCUP (Post 53471237)
If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?

Of course...

It would not shock me if the NHL just adopts the same system as 2005 if there is no season at all. Let's hope we never have to contemplate it.

Trae 08-10-2012 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HABS2DCUP (Post 53471237)
I really hope your wrong... BEcause if the Habs only have one ball then our chances of landing a top 5 pick are verrry slim. If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?

Well, that's kind of why I was asking, I'm not sure if 2/3 appearances means two balls or one. Based on the quote, it seems anything more than 1/3 warrants only one single ball. Either way, it's not going to favor Montreal with three balls, that's for sure.

One thing that bothers me, yet intrigues me, is the fact that a team with more than one 1st rounder will greatly increase their chances at a top 3 pick, especially depending on what team's pick they have. If there's a lockout, i would imagine the prices if 1st rounders would greatly increase.

Ashasx 08-10-2012 11:57 PM

I believe this is correct. The Oilers are the only team to have picked first overall in these past 3 years, so the Islanders have 3 balls.

3 balls: 8 teams with a 5.88% chance at first overall
Dallas
Calgary
Winnipeg
Toronto
New York Islanders
Minnesota
Columbus
Carolina

2 balls: 5 teams with a 3.92% chance at first overall
Florida
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
Colorado
Anaheim

1 ball: 17 teams with a 1.96% chance at first overall
Edmonton
Washington
Philadelphia
New York Rangers
Boston
New Jersey
Ottawa
Buffalo
Vancouver
Phoenix
Nashville
Detroit
Chicago
San Jose
Los Angeles
Montreal
Pittsburgh

Total balls: 51

Viqsi 08-11-2012 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trae (Post 53472001)
One thing that bothers me, yet intrigues me, is the fact that a team with more than one 1st rounder will greatly increase their chances at a top 3 pick, especially depending on what team's pick they have.

How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season. A less-than-ten-percent chance at the first overall pick does not strike me as something to desperately hope for. We already lost a nearly 50/50 draw as is.

Trae 08-11-2012 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viqsi (Post 53472425)
How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season.

To be 100% completely honest, I didn't give two ***** about what teams had picks, nor did I know that Columbus was the only team that had more than one pick. I got nothing against Columbus, if anything, they deserve it haha. My post was more about me thinking how hard it will be to acquire 1st's if GM's have a feeling this system will be implemented once again. If a team like Calgary (who's better players age another year) go into a lockout, it might be best to sell some of these assets, but 1st's will be much more valuable, even for contenders to give up. That's what bothers me. You pointing out a team like Columbus with more picks is the intriguing part, it's exciting!

Smallz 08-11-2012 12:18 AM

Columbus probably could have half of all the balls in the lottery and they'd probably still lose to a Canadian team

:laugh:

Trae 08-11-2012 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashasx (Post 53472087)
I believe this is correct. The Oilers are the only team to have picked first overall in these past 3 years, so the Islanders have 3 balls.

3 balls: 8 teams with a 5.88% chance at first overall
Dallas
Calgary
Winnipeg
Toronto
New York Islanders
Minnesota
Columbus
Carolina

2 balls: 5 teams with a 3.92% chance at first overall
Florida
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
Colorado
Anaheim

1 ball: 17 teams with a 1.96% chance at first overall
Edmonton
Washington
Philadelphia
New York Rangers
Boston
New Jersey
Ottawa
Buffalo
Vancouver
Phoenix
Nashville
Detroit
Chicago
San Jose
Los Angeles
Montreal
Pittsburgh

Total balls: 51

I am pretty sure the drafts reach back 4 years and the playoff appearances only 3, meaning Islanders would only get 2 balls, no?

sully61 08-11-2012 12:58 AM

The only good thing about a lock out. The Red Wings have a chance at MacKinnon, Jones, or another top pick!

LatvianTwist 08-11-2012 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sully61 (Post 53473753)
The only good thing about a lock out. The Red Wings have a chance at MacKinnon, Jones, or another top pick!

Yea, like, next to none.

LatvianTwist 08-11-2012 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trae (Post 53472801)
I am pretty sure the drafts reach back 4 years and the playoff appearances only 3, meaning Islanders would only get 2 balls, no?

This is correct, using that template.

nexttothemoon 08-11-2012 07:08 AM

Ya with the Isles only having 2 balls... that makes the total 50 balls.

Easy to compute the odds. Any team with 1 ball has a 2% chance at #1, 2 balls equals a 4% chance at #1 and 3 balls equals a 6% chance at #1.

It's still a crapshoot overall because even those teams with 3 balls instead of 1 can still lose out to a "1 baller" team because of the luck of the lotto machine. Just look at Edmonton getting the #1 pick 3 years in a row... that was slim odds as well and it still happened.

The big benefit of this type of draft is that every team has at least 1 ball so any team has a shot at a top 10 pick... makes for an exciting lottery draw, especially in a year with so many apparently high end prospects available.

Trae 08-11-2012 11:28 AM

It would really suck for a team who is actually rebuilding, or really needs to, to end up picking outside of the top 15 whereas if they were playing the season, they would have a top 5 pick or something.

What if there was a 5 ball system or something to create better odds for the weaker teams yet would still give a fair chance to all teams at getting a high draft pick?

Sean Monahan 08-11-2012 11:32 AM

Worked out for Pittsburgh before

Make It Biznasty* 08-11-2012 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viqsi (Post 53472425)
How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season. A less-than-ten-percent chance at the first overall pick does not strike me as something to desperately hope for. We already lost a nearly 50/50 draw as is.

why do you think everyone is out to get the blue jackets? they suck, no one cares about them or carries any ill will toward them.

Viqsi 08-11-2012 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Make It Biznasty (Post 53483189)
why do you think everyone is out to get the blue jackets? they suck, no one cares about them

This sort of dismissal would be a large part why...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Make It Biznasty (Post 53483189)
or carries any ill will toward them.

...and this isn't true, unless you consider being constantly told you don't deserve a team and it should be removed from the league to somehow not be "ill will".

I'm just more bitter than usual of late 'cause for way too many people, the solution to "we might all lose hockey for a while!" is "just take away hockey forever for these other second-class fans, they won't miss it." :rant:

Bravid Nonahan 08-11-2012 03:33 PM

If there is a full year lockout some of those teams won't have any balls...cause they won't exist.

Flat Stanley 08-11-2012 03:47 PM

Does it even matter? Gary Bettman will just rig the lottery and give Pittsburgh the 1st overall.

:sarcasm:

No Fun Shogun 08-11-2012 03:49 PM

Well at least Edmonton probably wouldn't win again....

Kingsfan1 08-11-2012 03:50 PM

The only thing I know for sure is if a lockout happens and Colombus does not get the first overall pick I will know for sure that team is cursed. That would suck

Smallz 08-11-2012 03:58 PM

If Phoenix gets 1st overall we'll all know it's rigged and go burn Gary at the stake

Hynh 08-12-2012 02:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by No Fun Shogun (Post 53484739)
Well at least Edmonton probably wouldn't win again....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...manza/350x.jpg

Trae 08-12-2012 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hynh (Post 53498779)

If Edmonton won again, the league would actually have to start ensuring Edmonton doesn't win it by tampering with the draft so that people don't start thinking that they tamper with the draft lol.

jameswrjobe53 08-12-2012 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trae (Post 53502587)
If Edmonton won again, the league would actually have to start ensuring Edmonton doesn't win it by tampering with the draft so that people don't start thinking that they tamper with the draft lol.

I agree


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:29 PM.

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com, A property of CraveOnline, a division of AtomicOnline LLC ©2009 CraveOnline Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.