Edmonton's young blueliners.
How do you rate the potential of our blueliners?
Klefbom - Good number two on a first pairing. Very effective on #1 PK unit.
Schultz - Good number two on a first pairing. #1 PP QB wizard
Marincin - Good number one on a second pairing. Effective on #1 PK unit.
Gernat - Good number one or number two on a second pairing. Passable #1 PP QB
Musil - Decent number two on a second pairing. Effective on #1 PK unit.
Bigos - Decent #1 on a third pairing. Effective on #1 PK unit.
Teubert - Average #6 d-man. Slightly below average on #2 PK unit.
Plante - Below average #6 d-man. Slightly below average on #2 PK unit.
Dillon Simpson - Jury is still out
Yeah. The chance of even one of these guys hitting the targets you outlined: maybe .50, but likely less in my opinion.
Gernat for example, is nothing at this point. So many players do well in the chl and amount to nothing at the ahl level, let alone the NHL.
Schultz - #1 PP QB wizard, first paring.
Klefbom - #1 PK, likely second pairing.
Musil - Low risk, second pairing
Gernat -#5, third pairing, with second paring upside
Marincin - #6, third pairing, with second paring upside
Bigos - Goons, hired goons... Third pairing defender.
Fedun - Mobility may be an issue - if not, a third paring defender, with second pairing upside.
Teubert - #7, could be third pairing, but likely a tweener.
Plante - Tweener, AHL-NHL career. Most likely to be a coach.
Too soon to tell:
Dillon Simpson, Erik Gustafsson, Joey Laleggia, Brandon Davidson - too soon to project
J. Schultz - top end #2, realistically a #3/4 second pairing offensive D-man good for 40-50 points, PPQB.
Oscar Klefbom - 2nd pairing two way D-man, second unit PPQB, PK anchor, kinda sorta a slightly more offensive Ladi Smid, better pure defender in terms of angles, poke checks etc
M. Marincin - to me he's a complete wildcard. Could top out as an above average top 4 D-man who's an all round threat; could end up being a complete bust or just a bottom pairing Jonathan Ericsson type, i.e. size and decent skill but just doesn't have the head or consistency to put it together. I'd wager the latter description/prediction of MM would be suitable.
Gernat - boom/bust prospect... either top 4 offensive wizard or AHL/Euro fodder. I'd say he doesn't amount to much at the NHL level.
Musil - bottom pairing, fringe top 4 D-man who can clear the crease and play the PK. He is a long shot for the NHL IMO. Although probably a good depth player to have.
... Colten Teubert and the rest. Not much there.
People on the boards like to think the Oilers have drafted some good D for the future and they may have, but none of them are sure things. Aside from Schultz or possibly Klefbom the organization doesn't have anyone who looks like they could/should turn into bonafide top pairing guys. Just a bunch of good question marks, if that even makes sense. I'm not convinced.
Fedun is such an interesting question to me... I was blown away how good he looked in the preseason, but now I think his psychological setbacks will be bigger than the physical ones he suffered. He was fast enough and tough enough for the NHL before, I thought, but will he be again?
Bigos would blow my mind if he played in the NHL, and if he did my money would be on him doing it as a fourth line forward. It's his slow developmental path that makes me think he's never in the show as a real D man, but I'm sure pulling for him.
Klefbom is an egg I won't count until he's played in north America, then we'll see what we have.
Gernat, on the other hand, is my sleeper pick. I think he's smarter than people give him credit for, and though it's obviously a long road, I like to think I could see him rounding out his defensive game to be a Jeff
Petry kind of d man. We will see.
Schultz was a hell of a coup but we don't know what he can be nor how far away from reaching it he is.
Marincin and Musil are mysteries to me.
Teubert is basically a tweener at this point, I think he has over rated toughness and will never be Matt Greene, but please show me I'm wrong.
Plante sucks and is a bust.
In defense of Marincin and Gernat. They're big guys with good mobility. Their skills complement one another very well. I'd be surprised if either of them failed to make it into the NHL.
The top six may look soft but then you look at these big defenceman they have going in the system, the odd one will pan out for size on the future defence core.
Klefbom -untapped potential
Schultz - untapped potential
Musil - will fit in nicely in OKC, going under the radar it seems.
Marincin - big project but worth the wait, untapped potential I want to see a pairing of the Slovakian Towers.
Gernat - big project but worth the wait, untapped potential, seems to play a decent offensive game.
Teubert - should get called up a few more games but the AHL will benefit him.
Fedun - has he recovered fully from that injury?
Plante- AHL all-star, enough said. :sarcasm: He should get called up a few games as well.
Bigos - hey! he was brought up in Notre Dame :sarcasm:
Outside of Klefbom and Schultz, the one player I would be to make it is Musil. Although not flashy, and won't provide your team with clutch goals/passes, he plays a smart, simple game; one tailored for the NHL.
You'e forgot about Fedun and Davidson, IMO have more potential then Bigos and Plante.
Honest Q... what makes Justin Schultz SO much better than Laleggia?
I mean Schultz was touted as the 3rd biggest FA signing behind only Suter and Parise fer crying out loud.
Laleggia had similar numbers and isn't vastly smaller than Schultz. I mean Schultz is a little bigger but he's not huge.
So tell me why is Schultz a player that 25+ GMS were drooling over and tripping over themselves to try and sign... yet Laleggia is a late round pick that basically no one even cares about.
Honestly I'd like to know what the vast Grand Canyon sized difference is between them?
IMO Laleggia is our 2nd most talented offensive D behind Schultz. With Laleggia's lack of size you have to wonder if he will be strong enough to deal with NHL power forwards. If he will be then IMO we have a future NHLer on our hands.
BTW Schultz is 6'2" 185lbs. and Laleggia is 5'10" and 180lbs. that's 4" in height, that's a pretty damn big difference. Stats are from their respective team sites.
Ya I hear you but there's also just 5 lbs difference. Both may yet bulk up somewhat but I doubt either will be crushers on the blueline. 4 inches is a lot but much like the Twin towers... size isn't everything when there isn't a lot of weight behind it. Is Schultz a red hot guarantee to handle power forwards?
I honestly want to wait and see him play before I anoint him as the chosen one. I don't know enough about Laleggia or Schultz (basically have watched highlights of both and they look good to me)... which is why I was asking for details about the vast divide in their respective potentials.
It seems Schultz is a sure bet top 4 and Laleggia is a long, long shot to have an outside chance at an NHL spot.
My gut (which is often wrong) says they may be closer than that. Laleggia is younger as well... by a full 2 years. He could very well be heavier than Schultz in 2 year's time. I agree, the Oilers could have a steal with him as well.
I donno. I don't get why people don't give more appreciation to Marincin and Gernat. They haven't had a bad year yet. Marincin is going to get a ton of minutes in the AHL next year and it'll likely be a similar story for Gernat in the 13/13 season.
We are talking POTENTIAL here, not necessarily what they are likely to be at the NHL level so i'll say..... Keep in mind that a lot of this is guessing since i (and most of you as well i'm sure) have seen these guys only a handful of times although i've seen Schultz a bunch on game replays.
Schultz - Top pairing, possible #1 offensive wizard who can also play well in his own end 5 on 5 and on the PK. 40-50+ pt potential. I honestly see a lot of Doughty in his game (not saying that he'll be as good, just comparing styles).
Klefbom - Top pairing, 2 way defenseman who can possibly play on the PP as he develops more. 30-40 pt potential along with solid defense. I was very impressed with him at the WJC but need to see more. I really wish he would have come over and played in the AHL this season.
Marincin - 2nd pairing at the most, VERY outside chance of being more. I admittedly have seen little of him but from what i've seen, he has a long way to go, really needs to fill out a lot in the next 2-3 years if he wants to hold down a steady NHL job. I will say though, that he has a lot of excellent tools but is extremely raw. He's a real wild card.
Gernat - I honestly have no idea, it's a big wait and see on him. He has a very good offensive skillset but has little defensive awareness at this point in his career and i'm honestly not sure if he'll ever develop that part of his game. In fairness, he's still very young and has plenty of time to develop his overall game but based on what i've seen of him, he's not as polished as his Slovak counterpart was in his rookie season and has a very long way to go. Fun player to watch though.
Musil - I like him the most out of the second tier D prospects. He has a very polished, pro style game. He is easily the safest best of the 2nd tier guys to be a solid, regular NHLer.
I see him as a virtual shoe in to be at least a 3rd pairing guy and likely a 2nd pairing guy.
Teubert - I'm not sure about him. I do like that he's mean and can skate well for a big man but he lacks something that is almost required for defensemen and that's hockey sense, he has very little of it and it's what will separate him from Musil eventually. It's a shame because he has all the physical tools to be exactly what we need on the blueline but i just don't see him being a regular NHLer.
I know very little about Bigos, Davidson, Simpson, LaLeggia etc. so i'll reserve judgment until i watch them play.
Simpson looked understated in the one game i saw him against Schultz's Wisconsin team and LaLeggia looked pretty dynamic in the one game i saw of him but he's awfully small.
Oh, forgot about Fedun. There's no doubt that he was impressive last preseason but i really know nothing about him outside of that so he's a perfect case of show me more but i'm intrigued.
you don't always have to be a bruiser to be an effective d-man, just ask Jeff Petry. and i think that's a misconception people have of defencemen, that they always have to be big and tough. they don't. just have a look at Nick Lidstrom. enough said! Schultz was signed for his offence. he also apparently plays quite sound defensively.
Obviously the scouts know a lot more about these prospects.
Leleggia vs Schultz is like Eberle vs Omark BEFORE last season.
Marincin, Getnat 5/6 pairing down the road could be very solid.
Schultz and Klefa would be decent 2nd pairing Dmen
Musil is making the NHL for sure but might not be more then a Sutton.
Laleggia doesn't get anywhere near the cred here that he should IMO, he is a dynamic PP QB and offensive defenseman. That said he will have to prove that he can handle bigger bodies. Schultz played a ton on Wisconsin's PK last year, Laleggia in the games that I've seen of him didn't.
Laleggia's offensive upside could be similar to Schultz's, I think that highly of his skill set. That said by my eye Schultz is the much better defensive player of the two and the much surer bet to be an NHL player.
If everything goes right for every prospect, here's how I see it
Klefbom - Legit #1 2 way dman. #1 PK unit and #2 PP
Schultz - #2 Offensive Dman. #1 PP QB
Marincin - #2/3 2 way dman. 2nd PK unit.
Gernat - Second pairing offensive defenseman. #2 PP QB
Musil - 2nd pairing shutdown dman. Main guy on #1 PK unit.
Teubert - Physical 4/5 shutdown dman. Can fill in when needed on PK
Plante - Highly Physical Bottom Pairing d-man. #2 PK unit.
There's a good chance none of that happens, but you never know
edit: Here's my hedged predictions...
Schultz - #2 dman scoring 45-60 pts a season, #1 PP QB
Klefa - #2 2 way dman, #1 PKer (I dream of the Klefbom - Schultz inevitable pairing, with no genuine #1 dman and two above par [albeit for different reasons] #2 dmen)
Marincin - 2cnd pairing, 2cnd PP
Teubert - bottom pairing, shutdown style dman
Plante - likely a tweener as the first call up
Musil - bottom pairing tweener who can move up to the second pairing, good skating shutdown dman (like n schultz but bigger and more physical)
Gernat - 2cnd pairing, 2cnd PP unit, paired up with countryman Marincin
Fedun - probably an AHLer but can be called up to replace an offensive dman who goes down with an injury
Peckham - likely looking at his make or break year, has to prove he can play in the show, but is probably at best a bottom pairing dman who handles a decent amount of PK duty
The guy is too small for NHL.
Taken from the NHL.com website:
Here's some of the smaller dmen that played in the NHL last season with their heights and weights listed...
Dan Boyle 5'11" 190
Andy Greene 5'11" 190
Matt Hunwick 5'11" 190
Marek Zidlicky 5'11" 190
Andrew Ference 5'11" 189
Aaron Ness 5'11" 184
Alex Goligoski 5'11" 181
Cade Fairchild 5'11" 175
Lubomir Visnovsky 5'10 197
Kimmo Timonen 5'10 194
Ian White 5'10 191
Tyson Barrie 5'10 190
Jack Hillen 5'10 190
Brian Campbell 5'10 190
John-Michael Liles 5'10 185
Tobias Enstrom 5'10 180
Mike Weaver 5'10 180
Erik Gustafsson 5'10 180
Ryan Ellis 5'10 179
Kris Russell 5'10 172
Marc-Andre Bergeron 5'9" 198
Brett Lebda 5'9" 195
Matt Taormina 5'9" 190
Jared Spurgeon 5'9" 185
Torey Krug 5'9" 180
Chay Genoway 5'9" 177
Francis Bouillon 5'8" 198
Leleggia is certainly on the small side at 5'9/5'10 and ~180 lbs but there's no reason he can't bulk up a little more yet as well.
I think it's way too early to write him off as too small. He's basically the same size as Liles, Enstrom, Ellis and MAB and they all are players I'd gladly take for the Oilers. Well maybe MAB not so much... but even he'd have looked good on the Oilers last year. :)
Hell even Brian Campbell is basically the same height but with an extra 10 lbs on him. I think a dman's skill level can easily outpace a few pounds in weight or a couple inches in height differential.
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