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-   -   Do the Leafs get a better pick by having a lockout or not V.345 (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1260733)

Hawaiinleaf 09-16-2012 10:34 AM

Do the Leafs get a better pick by having a lockout or not V.345
 
Wondering if this is our last shot at a top 5 pick for a long time, and Burke will not lose his job

Hypothetically if the lockout is all season and we end up in top 5 for draft

And the cap space available for the 2013/2014 FA market

Would the team not take a big leap forward perhaps?

Leafs For Life* 09-16-2012 10:39 AM

No. Because with lockout, we have a 6% at 1st, and with 5th ovr finish, 8%.

Suntouchable13 09-16-2012 10:46 AM

"Our lost shot at a top 5 pick", you say it as if it is some kind of prize. I hope the Leafs NEVER have to pick in the top 5 again.

William Nylander* 09-16-2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 54364971)
No. Because with lockout, we have a 6% at 1st, and with 5th ovr finish, 8%.

We just need a top 5 pick... Then we're guaranteed either a top center or Seth Jones

TheMadHatTrick 09-16-2012 10:53 AM

Mackinnon, Monahan, or Barkov would be bananas.:handclap:

If there's no lockout we better go hard after Getzlaf in free agency or we could go a decade without a true number 1 center.

81 09-16-2012 11:10 AM

Honestly, I'm happy anywhere in the top five but there will be a season, it'll just be delayed like the NBA was this year.

mooseOAK* 09-16-2012 11:14 AM

Yes, the Leafs will be awarded a top 5 pick because there is a lockout.

Mess 09-16-2012 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 54364971)
No. Because with lockout, we have a 6% at 1st, and with 5th ovr finish, 8%.

You're correct the odds are greater by playing then not playing.

In addition during a full year lockout all 30 teams enter the draft lottery with a chance at #1 overall (with weighted odds), whereas during a season (partial even) only the 14 non playoff teams enter the draft lottery, and with a chance to move up only 4 spots, leaving only the bottom 5 teams with a shot at #1.

Stephen 09-16-2012 11:47 AM

Maybe with a partially locked out season we finally make the playoffs: we usually play well enough for half the year and implode the other half, so we could be a top four team with home ice, or potentially dead last... :laugh:

TML1967 09-16-2012 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mess (Post 54365875)
You're correct the odds are greater by playing then not playing.

In addition during a full year lockout all 30 teams enter the draft lottery with a chance at #1 overall (with weighted odds), whereas during a season (partial even) only the 14 non playoff teams enter the draft lottery, and with a chance to move up only 4 spots, leaving only the bottom 5 teams with a shot at #1.

I understand that this is the way it happened the last time there was a locked out season, but do we have any concrete evidence that it will happen the same way again?
I haven't seen any, and quoting the old CBA makes no sense.. since the old CBA is no longer in effect.
Maybe they just give the same draft order, maybe they use the same system who knows. In the end, I would prefer a system where its much more highly weighted in favour of struggling teams like Toronto, Colombus etc.

MapleLeafsFan4Ever 09-16-2012 02:25 PM

If the worst case happens and the 2012-2013 season is cancelled wouldn't Toronto have one of the best chances of getting the #1 pick for the 2013 Draft? I can't see any other criteria for the NHL to use when giving all 30 teams a specifc number of balls then to use the same system they had in 2005, because they have nothing else to go with.

Darkhorse1280 09-16-2012 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 54364971)
No. Because with lockout, we have a 6% at 1st, and with 5th ovr finish, 8%.

I don't understand this. We were a bottom 5 team last year so that would gives us alot of balls than most teams you would think.

Also, I thought that the rule was that in the event of a lockout that any team who hasn't made the playoffs since the last lockout (eg: The Leafs) automatically gets the most balls?

Can someone who knows the lockout lottery rules shed some light on this topic?

81 09-16-2012 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 (Post 54371745)
I don't understand this. We were a bottom 5 team last year so that would gives us alot of balls than most teams you would think.

Also, I thought that the rule was that in the event of a lockout that any team who hasn't made the playoffs since the last lockout (eg: The Leafs) automatically gets the most balls?

Can someone who knows the lockout lottery rules shed some light on this topic?

There's teams like us who have three balls, some have two and the rest have one iirc. Columbus has three plus two from the picks they acquired.

egd27 09-16-2012 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 (Post 54371745)
I don't understand this. We were a bottom 5 team last year so that would gives us alot of balls than most teams you would think.

Also, I thought that the rule was that in the event of a lockout that any team who hasn't made the playoffs since the last lockout (eg: The Leafs) automatically gets the most balls?

Can someone who knows the lockout lottery rules shed some light on this topic?

Even if they had more balls than any other single team, they would have no where near as many as the 29 other teams combined.

Therefore the odds dramatically favour a team other than the Leafs getting the 1st overall.

MapleLeafsFan4Ever 09-16-2012 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dion Phaneuf (Post 54371885)
There's teams like us who have three balls, some have two and the rest have one iirc. Columbus has three plus two from the picks they acquired.

The 1st round picks Columbus has from the Rangers and Kings won't increase their chances of getting the 1st overall pick. The NHL would go by the Rangers and Kings records from the 2011-2012 season, so chances are those picks are between 25th - 30th overall.

MapleLeafsFan4Ever 09-16-2012 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 (Post 54371745)
I don't understand this. We were a bottom 5 team last year so that would gives us alot of balls than most teams you would think.

Also, I thought that the rule was that in the event of a lockout that any team who hasn't made the playoffs since the last lockout (eg: The Leafs) automatically gets the most balls?

Can someone who knows the lockout lottery rules shed some light on this topic?

Assuming the NHL uses the same rules as the 2005 Draft Lottery the Leafs should have the best chance of getting the #1 pick because they haven't made the Playoffs since 2004 and all 29 other teams made them at least once since 2006. Plus they haven't won the 1st overall pick so that decreases the Oilers chances of getting another 1st overall pick, even though they haven't made the Playoffs since 2006.

Here were the exact rules from the 2005 Draft Lottery.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Quote:

The Pittsburgh Penguins won the National Hockey League Draft Drawing, held today following the League's Board of Governors meeting in New York, and obtained the first overall selection for the 2005 Entry Draft, to be held Saturday, July 30 (noon, ET) at the Westin Hotel in Ottawa.

The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent. These clubs were the Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers.

Ten clubs met one of the seven criteria listed above and had a 4.2% chance of winning the Drawing, while the remaining 16 clubs met more than one of the criteria and had a 2.1% chance.

Forty-eight balls, numbered one through 48, were placed in a lottery machine. Three ball numbers were randomly assigned to each the Penguins, Sabres, Blue Jackets and Rangers; two ball numbers were assigned to the 10 clubs with a 4.2% chance; and one ball number was assigned to the 16 clubs with a 2.1% chance. The first ball expelled determined the winner of the first overall draft pick and it had been assigned to the Penguins.

After the first overall selection was awarded, another ball was expelled to determine which club, from among the 29 remaining, received the second overall pick. This process was continued until each of the 30 first-round draft positions was assigned.

blueNwhite89 09-16-2012 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER (Post 54373697)
Assuming the NHL uses the same rules as the 2005 Draft Lottery the Leafs should have the best chance of getting the #1 pick because they haven't made the Playoffs since 2004 and all 29 other teams made them at least once since 2006. Plus they haven't won the 1st overall pick so that decreases the Oilers chances of getting another 1st overall pick, even though they haven't made the Playoffs since 2006.

Here were the exact rules from the 2005 Draft Lottery.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Maybe this entire lockout is just a ploy for us to get MacKinnon :sarcasm:

crump 09-16-2012 03:31 PM

We have 0 chance at 1st overall because Bettman will give to the Coyotes or whoever else is on the verge of bankruptcy in the States.

Darkhorse1280 09-16-2012 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER (Post 54373697)
Assuming the NHL uses the same rules as the 2005 Draft Lottery the Leafs should have the best chance of getting the #1 pick because they haven't made the Playoffs since 2004 and all 29 other teams made them at least once since 2006. Plus they haven't won the 1st overall pick so that decreases the Oilers chances of getting another 1st overall pick, even though they haven't made the Playoffs since 2006.

Here were the exact rules from the 2005 Draft Lottery.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Thanks for digging that up. So if there is a work stoppage for an entire season, it actually DOES favour the Leafs more than any other team.

Darkhorse1280 09-16-2012 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crump (Post 54374461)
We have 0 chance at 1st overall because Bettman will give to the Coyotes or whoever else is on the verge of bankruptcy in the States.

Bettman would be smart enough to tread very carefully in regards to the lottery draw. If the Coyotes "were picked" for 1st overall, then he would not escape the wrath from both fans and media outfits alike and would ineveitably be forced to resign as people aren't that stupid to put 2 and 2 together.

MapleLeafsFan4Ever 09-16-2012 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 (Post 54374971)
Thanks for digging that up. So if there is a work stoppage for an entire season, it actually DOES favour the Leafs more than any other team.

You're welcome and like I said before the Leafs should have the best chance at the 1st overall pick if the upcoming season is cancelled, because the NHL doesn't have anything else but the 2005 Draft Lottery to go by.

MapleLeafsFan4Ever 09-16-2012 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crump (Post 54374461)
We have 0 chance at 1st overall because Bettman will give to the Coyotes or whoever else is on the verge of bankruptcy in the States.

Assuming the Coyotes don't have a new owner won't it be a conflict of interest if they got the 1st overall pick since the NHL still owns them today.

JAMmer124 09-16-2012 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkhorse1280 (Post 54375133)
Bettman would be smart enough to tread very carefully in regards to the lottery draw. If the Coyotes "were picked" for 1st overall, then he would not escape the wrath from both fans and media outfits alike and would ineveitably be forced to resign as people aren't that stupid to put 2 and 2 together.

There's no way they could give them first pick without it being so blatantly obvious it was rigged. If its done the same way as the last lockout, they'll have one ball.

Pittsburgh was at least a favourite to get the 1st overall pick last time. Phoenix already has a good team.

Mystifo 09-16-2012 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crump (Post 54374461)
We have 0 chance at 1st overall because Bettman will give to the Coyotes or whoever else is on the verge of bankruptcy in the States.

Beat me to it.

I am willing to bet a US market who is looking like they will go bankrupt gets the superstar who could save the franchise.

achtungbaby 09-16-2012 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Ball Hockey (Post 54375449)
There's no way they could give them first pick without it being so blatantly obvious it was rigged. If its done the same way as the last lockout, they'll have one ball.

Pittsburgh was at least a favourite to get the 1st overall pick last time. Phoenix already has a good team.

I thought I read that the NBA owned a team that either won the lottery or picked very high so it can happen.

Also, the Leafs wouldn't have the best chance. They'd share that honor with a few other teams.


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