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-   -   % of team's hits and games missed due to injury (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1261571)

Gobias Industries 09-18-2012 08:28 AM

% of team's hits and games missed due to injury
A friend and I were chatting last night about Lucic's new contract and he made the claim, "Well, the way he plays he might be susceptible to injury, so a three year term is good".

Has anyone looked into hits vs. games missed?

We both thought % of team hits to games missed would be the most sensible way to take a look given a team like Minnesota is consistently on top of the league in hits (likely to do a generous scorekeeper).

Bear of Bad News 09-18-2012 12:30 PM

Looking forward to seeing what you come up with; I've always wondered about this, but never have had the time to investigate.

jmart21 09-18-2012 02:00 PM

Very interesting! I agree that %of hits vs. time missed is likely the best way to go!

Gobias Industries 09-18-2012 02:27 PM

As self-serving as it might be, I'm starting with the Bruins for the last five years. I'll go on from there if there's any correlation.

Analyzer* 09-18-2012 02:47 PM

I don't have numbers, but those who are labelled as "Made of glass" on hfboards throw very few hits. Hemsky, Gaborik, Markov, Colaiacovo.

Paris in Flames 09-18-2012 03:10 PM


Originally Posted by Analyzer (Post 54427339)
I don't have numbers, but those who are labelled as "Made of glass" on hfboards throw very few hits. Hemsky, Gaborik, Markov, Colaiacovo.

Granted, I haven't seen Cola play much since the Leafs dealt him but...

Guy hits. His injuries sometimes come from missing hits and...other comical situations.

I would think the connection between physical play and injuries/games missed is obvious. Guys like Darcy Tucker had their body break down long before it realistically should've.

Analyzer* 09-18-2012 03:28 PM


Originally Posted by Paris in Flames (Post 54427975)

He throws some punishing hits, but Markov has thrown a big hit, or two himself, but he's far from physical.

Tucker's body broke down because he got drilled as much as he drilled people. That in combination with the fact that he wasn't very skilled to begin with caused for the decline of him. He was bought out by Toronto because he wasn't affective on the scoreboard. He could still agitate the **** out of the opposition by running his mouth, throw a hit, or even showing his punchable face.

Players like Neely it's hard to tell because his injuries came from Samuelsson's cheap shots. Eric Lindros' decline was from concussions because he never had to worry about anyone having no fear of hitting him and actually slowing him down/putting him on his ass until the NHL.

Shanahan was this type of player and his skill level remained relatively high throughout his career.

Wendal Clark was like this, heart and soul guy, but imo wasn't very skilled.

Rick Tocchet, and Kevin Stevens were the same. Physical guys who could put a puck in the net, but didn't have any finesse. I think both played over 1k games too.

I'm sure there were a few players who came into the league in the late 80's early 90's who could hit, fight and score and seemed to seemingly come out of nowhere and then fade away a few years later?

Gary Roberts had a long career.

A lot of physical players who scored goals faded out because their skill ran out before their body.

Lucic is more likely to become less and less of this dominating beast physically and on the scoreboard because what skill he has fades away before his body gives in.

Ovechkin is an interesting case. A guy who is tremendously skilled, but will run anyone and everyone over.

Fourier 09-18-2012 05:15 PM

This brings to mind another question I have had for quite sometime. People tend to suggest that smaller players will get hurt more often. My background is in football and in that sport my sense is that this is not true. I see no reason to believe that it would be true in hockey either but I have never seen data one way or the other. Does anyone know if something like this has ever been studied.

TheDevilMadeMe 09-18-2012 05:27 PM


Originally Posted by Analyzer (Post 54427339)
I don't have numbers, but those who are labelled as "Made of glass" on hfboards throw very few hits. Hemsky, Gaborik, Markov, Colaiacovo.

Kind of a chicken and egg thing there though.

Physical play leads to more injuries
Injuries lead to players playing less physical

When studying the effects, you need to be careful to figure out what came first

DL44 09-18-2012 06:12 PM

Just looking at my team over the yrs...

a couple of our bigger hitters have been Ohlund and Jovo... quite a few injuries.
Our glass man - Salo - mostly not a physical style of play - but extremely unlucky in the injury department.

Kesler, physical - tonnes of injuries.
Sedins, don't dish it - Ironman.

... and so many in between and all over the place... can't really conclude anything...

Maybe look at the Ironman lists..

active leader - JBo - would never be considered physical...
2nd Henrik. - plays a physical game, but more so in taking it, not dishing it.
past leader? I know Brendan Morrison used to be...

Bear of Bad News 09-18-2012 07:09 PM


Originally Posted by DL44 (Post 54432551)
Maybe look at the Ironman lists..

active leader - JBo - would never be considered physical...
2nd Henrik. - plays a physical game, but more so in taking it, not dishing it.
past leader? I know Brendan Morrison used to be...

I wouldn't call Andrew Brunette a big hitter.

Beef Invictus 09-18-2012 09:33 PM

I'll have a go at the 2011-12 Flyers. This will be inexact; I'm just seeing how far short of 82 games someone is, and assuming it's due to injury. I won't be discounting games missed due to illness or personal reasons, so heads up there. I'm only including full time NHLers because I don't have the time to figure out what callups/scratches missed however many games. I'm tempted to take Jagr out because he missed games due to wear and tear/age and not hitting. He probably counts as an outlier. I'm not taking raw team hits, I'm going to manually add the total hits these players accumulated and call it the team total.

I don't know how to make tables, but the format is: Player HitsPerGame %Teamhits GamesMissed %Teamgames missed. Total games missed based on my lazy formula: 192, Team Hits: 1437

Claude Giroux: .9 Hits .04 %Hits, 5 Miss, .02 %Miss
Scott Hartnell: 2.29 Hits, .13 %Hits, 0 Miss, .00 %Miss
Jaromir Jagr: .19 Hits, .01 %Hits, 9 Miss, .05 %Miss
Wayne Simmonds: 1.7 Hits, .10 %Hits, 0 Miss, 0.0 %Miss
Jakub Voracek: .56 Hits, .03 %Hits, 4 Miss, .02 %Miss
Danny Briere: .68 Hits, .03 %Hits, 12 Miss, .06 %Miss
Matt Read: 1.03 Hits, .06 %Hits, 3 Miss, .02 %Miss
Max Talbot: 1.85 Hits, .10 %Hits, 1 Miss, .01%Miss
Sean Couturier: 1.06 Hits, .06 %Hits, 5 Miss, .03 %Miss
JVR: .86 Hits, .03 %Hits, 39 Miss, .20 %Miss
Brayden Schenn: 2.51 Hits, .09 %Hits, 28 Miss, .15 %Miss

Kimmo Timonen: .89 Hits, .05 %Hits, 6 Miss, .03 %Miss
Matt Carle: .67 Hits, .04 %Hits, 0 Miss, .00 %Miss
Andrej Meszaros: 2.32 Hits, .10 %Hits, 20 Miss, .10 %Miss
Braydon Coburn: 2.02 Hits, .11 %Hits, 1 Miss, .01 %Miss
Chris Pronger: 1.15 Hits, .01 %Hits, 69 Miss, .36 %Miss

There you go. It's not sorted in any logical way, and it's imprecise; I'm not positive if it's useful or not. Draw what conclusions you will or can.

I think this would be more useful if it took hits taken and Time On Ice into account as well. It'd be even more useful looking at each player's careers.

Edit: I don't think there's anything conclusive here; if anything this looks contradictory at first glance. You've got Hartnell, Coburn, Simmonds, and Talbot with a high number of hits per game, and the 4 of them missed 2 games total. On the other hand, you've got Pronger, Schenn, Mez with high hit totals as well, and a a lot of games missed. So what makes those groups different? That's where I think we'd need to look at TOI and hits taken, and possibly age/hits taken per career. I'll let someone else do that, I want to go play video games. I'm going to guess nothing definitive shows up.

Also of note...Pronger's injury this year was very fluky; but he did also miss a lot of games in the previous season. Overall, I don't think hits given has nearly as much impact as hits taken; as in any sport, it's far easier to give a hit than it is to absorb one.

mrzeigler 09-18-2012 09:37 PM

Are you guys talking about the percentage of hits over an entire season? [In other words: (number of players hits in a season) divided by (total number of team's hits in a season)]

If that's the case, I think it's a bad analysis.

The premise is that the more hits a player dishes, the more likely he is to become injured.

It's a good premise, but if he becomes injured, he won't accumulate hits while he misses games. Meanwhile his teammates will continue to rack up hits, and their "percentage of total team hits" values relative to his will increase and his percentage will be disproportionately low.

A better gauge would be to determine a player's "percentage of team hits" relative to only the games he actually plays in a season, then rank the entire rosters based on that stat. And view the games played/missed stat in that context.

Beef Invictus 09-18-2012 09:52 PM

That's what I did; I originally started compiling total hits and realized that doesn't work out, so I went with hits per game so injury time doesn't make the total look smaller than it otherwise would be.

headsigh 09-19-2012 09:28 PM

I would also like to see the correlation between hits taken and games missed. Some injured players have stigmas of simply "being made of glass", e.g. getting hurt from minimal amounts/instances of contact. Meanwhile there are also commonly injured players that are hurt because they simply aren't necessarily being hit a lot, but the magnitude of the hits they did take completely derailed them (Suter on Kariya, Stevens on Lindros).

Then there are guys like Holmstrom that take tons of abuse and rarely miss a game.

Beef Invictus 09-19-2012 10:10 PM

Unfortunately, I don't think Hits Taken is tracked.

seventieslord 09-20-2012 11:25 AM

glad someone posted all the Colaicovo hits.

The Guerin/Bertuzzi/Comrie trio from the 2006 season were just outstanding, textbook hits. And powerful considering who was making them.

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