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Rumcajs 09-20-2012 11:53 AM

Draft Position due to Lockout
 
Say this year is entirely locked out, would the draft positions remain roughly the same for this years draft or how the NHL determine the order?

Would it be fair to guess Edmonton gets another 1st overall pick?

Inkling 09-20-2012 11:57 AM

They would probably do the same thing as 2005:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NHL_Entry_Draft

We'd have some chance at 1st overall. Edmonton would get the maximum number of 'balls' but so would a number of other teams probably, so it would be pretty incredible (and a longshot) for them to get 1st pick again.

Zorf 09-20-2012 11:58 AM

If I remember correctly, after the last lockout, the draft order(which happened to be the Crosby draft) was roughly based on the rankings of the last season played, however, each team had a chance at the 1st overall pick.

Ottawa was lucky to get into the top 10...and then ruined it by taking Brian Lee.
Anaheim was also very lucky to get the #2 selection.
I think Pittsburgh had the best odds of getting the #1 pick, and they did.

Based on last seasons rankings, Columbus would have the best odds...but yes, Edmonton would probably win the lottery, and then pick another forward...because that's what they need.

Marvelous Manked 09-20-2012 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inkling (Post 54469505)
They would probably do the same thing as 2005:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NHL_Entry_Draft

We'd have some chance at 1st overall. Edmonton would get the maximum number of 'balls' but so would a number of other teams probably, so it would be pretty incredible (and a longshot) for them to get 1st pick again.

Nope, Edmonton would be tied for the least amount of balls. Each first overall pick a team has had takes away a ball.

Can we please sticky this, this question is getting asked a lot.

Everyone starts with three balls, and each time a team has made the playoffs in the last 3 years or got the 1st overall pick, one ball is taken away. Every team gets at least one ball.

Essentially, the only way a team could get more than one ball is if in the last three years, they haven't had a 1st overall pick more than once, and have missed the playoffs in AT LEAST 2 of the last 3 years.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-M18dLgYVTn...if+lockout.jpg

Of course this isn't the confirmed method, but it is by far the most likely scenario because it's actually pretty fair.

Inkling 09-20-2012 12:04 PM

Thanks for that clarification, didn't know that past 1st overall picks also played into the number of balls.

chrewilson 09-20-2012 12:23 PM

2005 was also a snake draft, so it is probable that 2013 would be as well. if it gets to that.

Yokai 09-20-2012 12:37 PM

At least if New Jersey or Phoenix won MacKinnon we'd know the fix was in this time. Either team winning when they are tied amongst those with the lowest odds would be suspect.

moz 09-20-2012 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manked (Post 54469575)
Nope, Edmonton would be tied for the least amount of balls. Each first overall pick a team has had takes away a ball.

Can we please sticky this, this question is getting asked a lot.

Everyone starts with three balls, and each time a team has made the playoffs in the last 3 years or got the 1st overall pick, one ball is taken away. Every team gets at least one ball.

Essentially, the only way a team could get more than one ball is if in the last three years, they haven't had a 1st overall pick more than once, and have missed the playoffs in AT LEAST 2 of the last 3 years.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-M18dLgYVTn...if+lockout.jpg

Of course this isn't the confirmed method, but it is by far the most likely scenario because it's actually pretty fair.

Columbus would get 5 balls though, right, because they own the Rangers' and Kings' picks?

Also pardon me if this is a really dumb question, but are trades possible during the lockout? What about for draft picks since they don't involve players?

saskriders 09-20-2012 01:20 PM

posted this elsewhere


Quote:

Originally Posted by saskriders (Post 53742853)
I was bored so I did a simulation for a lottery if there is a lockout (based on 05s rules)

If this would be better somewhere else mods can feel free to move it

posters can also feel free to say who which teams should pick


This is the order

NYI
Cgy
Nsh
TB
Car
Wpg
Phx
Flo
NJ
Ott
Tor
Clm
Dal
Chi
Col
Min
Ana
SJ
Phi
Buf
Edm
Van
Stl
Pit
Wsh
Mtl
LA
Bos
Det
NYR


chrewilson 09-21-2012 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moz (Post 54471137)
Columbus would get 5 balls though, right, because they own the Rangers' and Kings' picks?

Also pardon me if this is a really dumb question, but are trades possible during the lockout? What about for draft picks since they don't involve players?

I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.

benjiv1 09-21-2012 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrewilson (Post 54489565)
I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.

It doesn't matter regardless. The more balls you have, the higher the percentage of picking 1st overall or close to first. (because while NYR and LA only have a 2% chance of picking 1st overall, you have to add all of the percentages together.

5 balls X .02 (likliness of each ball being picked first overall) = 10% (or 5/50)

So despite having the most balls, CBJ only has a 10% chance of picking 1st overall.

The balls that previously belonged to NYR and LA will have to be marked for later draft positioning, but CBJ could pick 1st overall with either of those balls.

Spex 09-21-2012 10:59 AM

Big assumption, but assume the enitre season is wiped out...I wonder if the conspiracy rumours will start up again if another money-bleeding team wins the lottery like in 2005 with PIT/Crosby

Imagine what would happen if Phoenix or Columbus wins it? Imagine what would happen if the Leafs won it!!!

Yokai 09-21-2012 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spex (Post 54490375)
Big assumption, but assume the enitre season is wiped out...I wonder if the conspiracy rumours will start up again if another money-bleeding team wins the lottery like in 2005 with PIT/Crosby

Imagine what would happen if Phoenix or Columbus wins it? Imagine what would happen if the Leafs won it!!!

It would be more hilarious if the New Jersey Devils won it. Don't they have to give up their pick this year because of the Kovy deal? Pretty sure they had to this past year or this upcoming season. That'll teach em to jump us in the 2011 Draft!

Marvelous Manked 09-21-2012 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WantEggRoll (Post 54490419)
It would be more hilarious if the New Jersey Devils won it. Don't they have to give up their pick this year because of the Kovy deal? Pretty sure they had to this past year or this upcoming season. That'll teach em to jump us in the 2011 Draft!

Close, but the Devils can either forfeit their pick in the 2013 Draft or the 2014 Draft.

Yokai 09-21-2012 11:09 AM

Ah damn would've been a classy end to that story.

moz 09-21-2012 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chrewilson (Post 54489565)
I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.

Well they would still be labeled NY and LA, but Columbus has the rights to them. So they have the best chance at first overall (CBJ's chance plus NY plus LA) and will end up with three first round picks. It's not remotely likely but it is possible the Jackets could get picks 1, 2, and 3 (or by the same token, 28, 29, 30).

sens83 09-21-2012 01:03 PM

I say everyone roshambo's

chrewilson 09-21-2012 02:39 PM

I say they do this XFL style. Races to the puck.

Marvelous Manked 09-21-2012 02:52 PM

"Sticks in the middle"


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