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-   -   Value of: EA Sports Syndrome (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1264041)

Jets 09-25-2012 12:57 AM

EA Sports Syndrome
 
Just wondering what everyone thinks of this...

I'm thinking a large number of posters now have beliefs in prospects and young emerging players being worth more than established stars in the league due to largely draft hype, but even moreso the NHL video games. I think it's a heavy flaw in the way the game uses potential to jack up trade value and makes your 19 year old CHL potential 2nd line centreman worth more than an established 50pt winger. It seems that this kind of over valuation of potential carries over to HF boards (its no secret everyone here are diehard hockey fans and a good majority of us probably play and own the NHL games). It seems to lead to a lot of boneheaded, one sided proposals that really make no sense in terms of current NHL value. Are we getting a little too caught up in player "potential" and not taking into account current or actual ability? Where does one draw the line between potential value and current value, and how can that carry over into trades? It seems to me it's extremely discretionary and leads to a fair share of pissing matches in the proposal threads.

RomersWorld* 09-25-2012 01:01 AM

From what I remember about NHL12, you could get great young players and prospects for like 3rd rounders. Maybe the blockbusters are what gives people dumb trade ideas, but that is mostly the dumb "quantity vs quality" proposals we see. But that has nothing to do with young guys and prospects. I don't see the correlation.

LatvianTwist 09-25-2012 01:06 AM

People tend to overrate their own prospects a lot. Even I've done it several times.

Draft position is also pretty overrated here.

PayItForward 09-25-2012 01:16 AM

I don't know if it has anything to do with video games, but the general gist of your post I agree with. Prospects, young players and "potential" are severely overrated on here.

Fraser Read 09-25-2012 01:32 AM

I blame Pierre Mcguire

Grant 09-25-2012 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jets (Post 54571863)
Just wondering what everyone thinks of this...

I'm thinking a large number of posters now have beliefs in prospects and young emerging players being worth more than established stars in the league due to largely draft hype, but even moreso the NHL video games. I think it's a heavy flaw in the way the game uses potential to jack up trade value and makes your 19 year old CHL potential 2nd line centreman worth more than an established 50pt winger. It seems that this kind of over valuation of potential carries over to HF boards (its no secret everyone here are diehard hockey fans and a good majority of us probably play and own the NHL games). It seems to lead to a lot of boneheaded, one sided proposals that really make no sense in terms of current NHL value. Are we getting a little too caught up in player "potential" and not taking into account current or actual ability? Where does one draw the line between potential value and current value, and how can that carry over into trades? It seems to me it's extremely discretionary and leads to a fair share of pissing matches in the proposal threads.

That's the problem, there is no line defining when. IT always completely depends on the situation. Did the current GM draft this prospect? Does the prospect play a position of strength? Does the prospect want out? Do we need the help right now? There are so many variables that it is impossible to clearly say what the value should be.

Also a problem on HF and I will admit to doing it myself, nobody EVER wants to downgrade at a position/player. How many times have you heard 'Only available for an upgrade' or 'Quantity vs Quality'. NHL players are only ever available for an upgrade and that upgrade is either someone better at that position right now or for a prospect that is projected to one day be better. Meanwhile prospects are only available for players who are similar to what they MAY become. Otherwise fans will say we will just develop him into that ourselves and get him on the cheaper contract.

I have said it a few times. With the number of people who are 'projected' to be a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman as claimed by people on here, the NHL could competitively support maybe a dozen more teams.

All in all this whole potential thing is what results in no trades ever being agreed upon on here and is why NHL GMs get paid the money they do. We saw it quite recently with Schultz I think. Everyone wanted to sign this guy because apparently he is a top 4 guy right now with top pairing potential, but he has never played an NHL game. We don't even know if he will ever succeed yet in the NHL and yet his value is sky high.

tsujimoto74 09-25-2012 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grant (Post 54572231)
That's the problem, there is no line defining when. IT always completely depends on the situation. Did the current GM draft this prospect? Does the prospect play a position of strength? Does the prospect want out? Do we need the help right now? There are so many variables that it is impossible to clearly say what the value should be.

Also a problem on HF and I will admit to doing it myself, nobody EVER wants to downgrade at a position/player. How many times have you heard 'Only available for an upgrade' or 'Quantity vs Quality'. NHL players are only ever available for an upgrade and that upgrade is either someone better at that position right now or for a prospect that is projected to one day be better. Meanwhile prospects are only available for players who are similar to what they MAY become. Otherwise fans will say we will just develop him into that ourselves and get him on the cheaper contract.

I have said it a few times. With the number of people who are 'projected' to be a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman as claimed by people on here, the NHL could competitively support maybe a dozen more teams.

All in all this whole potential thing is what results in no trades ever being agreed upon on here and is why NHL GMs get paid the money they do. We saw it quite recently with Schultz I think. Everyone wanted to sign this guy because apparently he is a top 4 guy right now with top pairing potential, but he has never played an NHL game. We don't even know if he will ever succeed yet in the NHL and yet his value is sky high.

Don't disagree with anything else you said, but Schultz is a poor example IMO. He got a lot of hype and attention because he was a free asset with top 4 -- heck, maybe top pair -- upside that, at his stage of development, might be able to succeed in the NHL right now.

I doubt there were 27 GM's clamoring to get him from Anaheim a year ago, and I doubt anyone but Edmonton's GM cares about him now that he's signed. But obviously when an asset like that hits FA, any GM with room for another contract is probably going to make an offer.

Ho Borvat 09-25-2012 02:21 AM

Playing as the Canucks I have 9 1st round picks for 2014 in be a gm

I did not trade Edler, Kesler, Sedins, or Luongo.


The problem is a guy like Jensen for the Canucks has no trade value, and no upside whatsoever in the game. His overall is low, despite the fact he is a fairly decent overall prospect he can be had for a 3rd round pick in the game.

Player valuations are just really off in the game.

Ho Borvat 09-25-2012 02:29 AM

Also I just entered the draft with picks 1-3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 26 and 28 without blowing up the team.

Seriously they need to fix be a gm.

Elvs 09-25-2012 02:49 AM

I edit all the players in the game (or, whoever has a NHL contract)... So the player values in my NHL13 is more realistic than yours. :D

Exit Dose 09-25-2012 03:10 AM

I think people tend to mistake the fact that most prospects aren't on the block at all times to mean they have a high value. Generally speaking I think most GMs would rather have a prospect fail to meet expectations than risk trading them away right before they break out. In the course of a season circumstances can arise that force their hand, but that should be seen as something temporary and not a constant state of being. Most of the offers that are at least perceived as being fair value here would fail because there isn't the proper context for a trade like that to occur in the real world.

rypper 09-25-2012 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kack zassian (Post 54572541)
Also I just entered the draft with picks 1-3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 26 and 28 without blowing up the team.

Seriously they need to fix be a gm.

how the hell did you pull that off, did you use up the next 10 years of picks?

seanlinden 09-25-2012 06:51 AM

Honestly... I don't think it's the NHL games that is the root cause of this -- it's a basic misunderstanding of the circumstances that lead to a player's trade.

When you're talking about established player for prospect trades, these really don't happen in the context of both teams "getting better". They happen because the team with the more established player wants to cash out on his value... so they move him for what they can get. The time of year, calibre of player, and market conditions determine what that price is.

Another ridiculous thing that happens on HFboards is the whole "don't trade a player when his value is low" argument... simply because there's no such thing. A player's value is always relative to past values and future values, the former of which can be determined, the latter of which cannot. Generally, all player's value is higher than his all time low, and lower than his all time high.

The right time for a player to be traded is when his value drops relative to what it was recently, because it causes his current GM to lose faith in him, and search for other ways to fill his role internally.

Iridium128 09-25-2012 07:03 AM

I remember in NHL 12 trading Rob Flick + Byron Froese for Dougie Hamilton, as well as Danis-Pepin, Salak + Dahlbeck for Beaulieu + Tinordi. Values were way off

hairylikebear 09-25-2012 07:10 AM

Potential is a tantalizing concept. It has little to do with video games.

For example, I don't play the EA NHL games, yet I overrated prospects all the time :D

GordieHoweHatTrick 09-25-2012 09:20 AM

No comment on the video game but if a blue-chipper has more "value" than an established 50 point winger it's because of the ELC. Teams can retain young players for longer at a reduced cost because they're restricted free agents once the ELC is up.

SteenMachine 09-25-2012 09:30 AM

I think the video games are just a good example of how erroneous player perceptions become once the right names influence the media and industry to take notice of them. Fans can't help but follow suit because they don't have access to pro / minor scouts or player development training to actually analyze someone's value with any metric. Hype becomes fact, and everyone over 30 becomes "not worth the risk of decline" rather than worth the risk of winning it all.

Duncanmac81 09-25-2012 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elvstrand (Post 54572625)
I edit all the players in the game (or, whoever has a NHL contract)... So the player values in my NHL13 is more realistic than yours. :D


the only problem with editting players is they lose their rookie status.

I fixed Nathan Mackinnon, to a 73 with an A potential, where he should be.

but his rookie status is gone.

I noticed this in last yers game. I hate it, cause one of the tasks is to get you drafted player to win the calder, but you gotta get like 7 seasons in before any are top line quality. unless you play every game on pro(stupid nobs)

Duncanmac81 09-25-2012 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kack zassian (Post 54572541)
Also I just entered the draft with picks 1-3, 10, 15, 16, 22, 26 and 28 without blowing up the team.

Seriously they need to fix be a gm.

I remember NHL09, when you could trade your 5th for the other teams 5th and 1st.

I had the first 60 draft pick.

but that meant **** back then considering the draftees sucked

Beezeral 09-25-2012 09:55 AM

I think the NHL 13 sydrome comes into play when you see all these crazy quantity for quality trades. While not one poster will admit it, there are plenty of guys who come on here and post proposals that they created created using NHL 13 to determine fairness.

It's a dead giveaway when you see random 3rd and 5th round picks thrown in on either side

jmart21 09-25-2012 09:55 AM

You can't measure value in a way that lends itself to building an algorithm around it. Hence why its very wonky in EA Games. Player values are very complex, depending on dozens of various parameters that change over time, even the rate of change is changing over time.

Player "value" is a personal opinion. One GM might see a certain player with high value, another GM might feel the player is worthless. It all depends on who is buying, who is selling and their own situations.

Mayor Bee 09-25-2012 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmart21 (Post 54575607)
You can't measure value in a way that lends itself to building an algorithm around it. Hence why its very wonky in EA Games. Player values are very complex, depending on dozens of various parameters that change over time, even the rate of change is changing over time.

Player "value" is a personal opinion. One GM might see a certain player with high value, another GM might feel the player is worthless. It all depends on who is buying, who is selling and their own situations.

True, and GMs also occasionally defy set patterns to sign a player or make a trade.

But to be perfectly honest, EA usually mails in their efforts.

Viqsi 09-25-2012 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hairylikebear (Post 54573657)
Potential is a tantalizing concept. It has little to do with video games.

This. I recommend some research into gambling addictions. It's enlightening. ;)

NORiculous 09-25-2012 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beezeral (Post 54575591)
I think the NHL 13 sydrome comes into play when you see all these crazy quantity for quality trades. While not one poster will admit it, there are plenty of guys who come on here and post proposals that they created created using NHL 13 to determine fairness.

It's a dead giveaway when you see random 3rd and 5th round picks thrown in on either side

you are probably right to a point but adding picks to a trade offer has nothing to do with going on the game first.

rt 09-25-2012 10:19 AM

I haven't played a hockey video game in probably ten years. I still overrate my own teams young assets and make poor trade proposals as a result. I think it has less to do with video games and more to do with the nature of being a biased fan.


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