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-   -   Prospect Info: 2013 NHL Entry Draft (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1264723)

BigG44 09-27-2012 09:42 AM

2013 NHL Entry Draft
 
The first big scouting event of the year was the Ivan Hlinka, but Saturday scouts will attend the new CCM/USA Hockey All-American Prospects Game.

According to NHL.com:

Quote:

On the roster are seven players who are considered A-list prospects on NHL Central Scouting's preliminary players-to-watch list: defensemen Seth Jones of the Portland Winterhawks (WHL), Mike Downing of the Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL) and Ian McCoshen of the Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL), and forwards Justin Bailey of the Kitchener Rangers (OHL), Luke Johnson of the Lincoln Stars (USHL) and Hudson Fasching and J.T. Compher of the U.S. National Team Development Program Under-18 team (USHL).
DALLAS STARS 2013 DRAFT PICKS
1st Round (DAL)
1st Round (BOS)
2nd Round (DAL)
2nd Round (VAN)
3rd Round (EDM)
4th Round (DAL)
5th Round (DAL)
5th Round (PIT)
6th Round (DAL)
7th Round (FLA)

MB94 09-27-2012 10:14 AM

On the bright side if there will be a full NHL season lockout .. we will have a top 5 pick

txomisc 09-27-2012 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MB Stars (Post 54616173)
On the bright side if there will be a full NHL season lockout .. we will have a top 5 pick

I wouldnt count on it.

I think the general consensus so far would be that if an entire season was wiped out theyd use the same or a similar format as they did last time. I think it was very simplistic based simply on recent first overall picks and playoff appearances.

If I were to come up with a formula I think I'd have to include more variables. Based on a 3 year period.
Each team starts with 10 balls
-1 ball per playoff appearance
-2 balls per first overall draft choice
-1 ball per top 3 draft choice
-3 balls per nhl finals appearance

Every team gets at least 1 ball no matter the calculation results.

Obviously this would give Dallas a great chance at a top overall pick and my bias might be involved here but I do think its fair that teams that have picked 2nd or 3rd have a slightly lower chance of picking first than a team that hasn't. I think in general top 3 sort of separates itself in a draft year but I think the case could be made for top 5 as well.

LatvianTwist 09-27-2012 03:19 PM

My favorites so far:

Seth Jones - No brainer here. Hometown kid, exactly what we need, exactly what GMJN wants. It's a perfect fit, but I don't see us picking #2.

Sasha Barkov - Just a hunch but I think he'll be the best center drafted since Tavares. Better than RNH, Gally, Huberdeau, etc. (assuming MacKinnon shifts to wing). Elite talent and he's huge, too.

Jacob de La Rose - Mostly because of his name. :) And I do really like his game too.

Nikita Zadorov - I can't even imagine a team with three defensive defensemen, all pretty physical and all over 6'4". Just drooling at that. If we're in the 15-20 range, he's the guy I want at the moment.

LatvianTwist 09-27-2012 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by txomisc (Post 54617005)
I wouldnt count on it.

I think the general consensus so far would be that if an entire season was wiped out theyd use the same or a similar format as they did last time. I think it was very simplistic based simply on recent first overall picks and playoff appearances.

If I were to come up with a formula I think I'd have to include more variables. Based on a 3 year period.
Each team starts with 10 balls
-1 ball per playoff appearance
-2 balls per first overall draft choice
-1 ball per top 3 draft choice
-3 balls per nhl finals appearance

Every team gets at least 1 ball no matter the calculation results.

Obviously this would give Dallas a great chance at a top overall pick and my bias might be involved here but I do think its fair that teams that have picked 2nd or 3rd have a slightly lower chance of picking first than a team that hasn't. I think in general top 3 sort of separates itself in a draft year but I think the case could be made for top 5 as well.

The actual formula is that every team starts off with 3 balls. For each playoff appearance you've made in the past 3 years, you lose one ball. Also, if you've had a 1st overall pick in the last 4 years, you lose a ball. You can't lose them all though, guaranteed at least one. We'd end up with 3, and only about 10-14 teams have more than 1, so I do like our chances, but I certainly wouldn't go out and say we're guaranteed a top pick.

hairylikebear 09-27-2012 03:37 PM

We'd have a ~28% chance of a top 5 pick.

Here are some odds in case of a full season lockout.
RangeChance
1st6.0%
Top 317.4%
Top 528.2%
6-1023.9%
11-1519.4%
16-2014.7%
21-259.7%
26-304.1%
Top 1052.2%
Top 1571.6%
Bottom 1528.4%
30th0.3%

Of course the chance of a full season lockout is pretty tiny to begin with. However it is seems likely to yield a better draft pick than we'd get by playing out the season.

txomisc 09-27-2012 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LatvianTwist (Post 54622021)
The actual formula is that every team starts off with 3 balls. For each playoff appearance you've made in the past 3 years, you lose one ball. Also, if you've had a 1st overall pick in the last 4 years, you lose a ball. You can't lose them all though, guaranteed at least one. We'd end up with 3, and only about 10-14 teams have more than 1, so I do like our chances, but I certainly wouldn't go out and say we're guaranteed a top pick.

yeah I think we are one of 7 or 8 teams that would have the max number under the current formula so its ok odds, not great. My system improves our odds dramatically.

DMaz16 09-28-2012 10:55 AM

Just thought I'd show the 2005 lottery rules and the odds if they implemented it again in the event of another frieken missed season

Rules:

1) Missed the playoffs in each of the previous 3 seasons.
2) Didn't have the 1st overall selection over the last 4 drafts.

If you met both criteria, you got 3 balls.
If you made the playoffs only once OR had the 1st overall only once, you got 2 balls.
If you had two or more of any combination of those two (playoff appearances or 1st overalls), then you only got 1 ball.


If implemented again:

3 Balls: Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets, Toronto Maple Leafs, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild

2 Balls: New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche, Anaheim Ducks, St. Louis Blues

1 Ball: Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Philadelphia Flyers, Buffalo Sabres, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Montreal Canadiens, Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers

BigG44 10-04-2012 09:14 PM

The more I look at the top talent in the draft, the more I like piqued's musing about a missed season potentially benefiting the Dallas Stars.

Seth Jones is obviously a prize, but it's interesting to see Aleksander Barkov tearing up the SM-Liiga right now. He barely qualifies for the draft since his birthday is Sept. 2nd so that makes him one of the youngest players available. As a 16 year old last year against men, he put up a respectable 16 points (7G-9A) in 32 games. This year, after just turning 17 years old a month ago, he already has 12 points (7G-5A) in only 8 games. He's also averaging about 18 minutes a game.

Bob McKenzie has him 6th right now, but it's hard to imagine him not shooting up team's draft boards. His combo of size, skill, and production at his age against men is pretty rare.

LatvianTwist 10-04-2012 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigG44 (Post 54774307)
The more I look at the top talent in the draft, the more I like piqued's musing about a missed season potentially benefiting the Dallas Stars.

Seth Jones is obviously a prize, but it's interesting to see Aleksander Barkov tearing up the SM-Liiga right now. He barely qualifies for the draft since his birthday is Sept. 2nd so that makes him one of the youngest players available. As a 16 year old last year against men, he put up a respectable 16 points (7G-9A) in 32 games. This year, after just turning 17 years old a month ago, he already has 12 points (7G-5A) in only 8 games. He's also averaging about 18 minutes a game.

Bob McKenzie has him 6th right now, but it's hard to imagine him not shooting up team's draft boards. His combo of size, skill, and production at his age against men is pretty rare.

I'm still not sure what I'd be more excited for, Benn - Barkov - Faksa down the middle or Jones as our #1.

But then again, there's almost no way we end up that high, even with those odds.

piqued 10-04-2012 10:13 PM

Pens go through bankruptcy... miss the playoffs 4 seasons in a row... lockout... draft Crosby... win the Cup.

Stars go through bankruptcy... miss the playoffs 4 season in a row... lockout... ??? ... profit?

I kind of fudged the timelines a little, but still

Captain Awesome 10-05-2012 02:02 AM

Question, for your plan to work do we need Mike Modano to buy the team? And if so, will Gary Roberts be in charge of properly feeding his dogs?

piqued 10-05-2012 08:44 AM

I thought about that. Do we still owe Modano money? I can't even remember if he was one of the unsecured creditors. Maybe we need Gaglardi to threaten to move the team to Kansas City just to be safe.

Stars99Lobo37 10-05-2012 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piqued (Post 54781031)
Maybe we need Gaglardi to threaten to move the team to Kansas City just to be safe.

These boards would be the last place I would ever want to be if the Stars were even at the slightest bit in trouble of moving. :shakehead The Canadian fans/media would jump all over us in a heart beat.

Faidh ar Rud Eigin 10-05-2012 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stars99Lobo37 (Post 54782681)
These boards would be the last place I would ever want to be if the Stars were even at the slightest bit in trouble of moving. :shakehead The Canadian fans/media would jump all over us in a heart beat.

Canadian media is usually pretty good with not mentioning Dallas when talking about struggling US markets. TSN mentions New Jersey and Long Island far more often in potential teams to be than Dallas (Partially because they've never mentioned Dallas).

Stars99Lobo37 10-05-2012 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin (Post 54782827)
Canadian media is usually pretty good with not mentioning Dallas when talking about struggling US markets.

That's cause we haven't been a serious threat to leave the city :laugh:. 2024, or whatever it is, is coming up fast!

LatvianTwist 10-06-2012 12:31 AM

Not really sure what our big needs are going into this draft. Obviously we're set at goaltending for a while. We could probably use some puck-moving D prospects (Bystrom's the only good one we have IMO), but with Goligoski and Larsen already up here and looking like they'll stay for a while, I'm not sure it's a pressing need. Shutdown guys look fine with Daley now and Dillon, Oleksiak, and Nemeth all coming up. Don't really have one standout winger, but the depth is insane (and unless we get a high pick, I wouldn't count on picking up that standout guy). And center got majorly shored up last year but some insurance there could help (just in case Faksa isn't our future #2 or we do want Benn back on the wing for some odd reason).

I really don't remember a draft where I couldn't figure out one obvious need, unless I'm missing something.

WhoahNow 10-06-2012 12:57 AM

I live in Kelowna and went to see the Rockets game on Wednesday and Madison Bowey really stood out! 2 goals and an assist and played great defensively as well. I would be real excited for a top pick this year with players like MacKinnon, Jones, Monahan, Barkov, Shinkaruk, and Lazar out there.

MB94 10-06-2012 01:26 AM

I think this year is one of the years where we will just pick the best prospect available once we're up and not focus on a certain position.

Nemeth 10-06-2012 07:16 AM

I think we are going to win the lottery and draft Jones, just a feeling.

Karitimes 10-06-2012 10:06 AM

I have seen MacKinnon twice this year, and I really can't tell you who I'd compare him to. He is quick, agile and always on attack mode in the Q. I'd personally see him developing into a player like Stamkos, or at worst a mid 90s Bondra (he could snipe in at a tough time to snipe in a crappy NHL) where you'll see a higher total in the goal column perennially. I do believe like the scouts say, his vision might be somewhat limited, but his knack for finding room and getting shots off is remarkable. Either way, it would be a dream for Dallas to get him.

What was better than watching MacKinnon was at the home opener, my gf and her group of friends won a cool $12K on the 50/50! Big night, even bigger headache the next day. I had no share but got NHL13 out of the deal.

Stars99Lobo37 10-06-2012 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by starsfan17 (Post 54802327)
I think we are going to win the lottery and draft Jones, just a feeling.

:yo::handclap::yo::handclap:

DaStars99 10-06-2012 10:40 AM

You would have to think drafting Jones would be a huge boost for crowd interest too, with Dallas connections in all.

TrillMike 10-06-2012 12:33 PM

It would be so awesome if the Stars won the loto and ended up with 1st overall. I don't want to start a hypothetical thread, so I'll keep it here.

Let's say Dallas has first overall, would you rather them take McKinnon or Jones? I'd love either of them. With that said, I'd probably go with McKinnon. The whole Texas thing for Jones is awesome, I'd rather have Crosby/Stamkos v2 though.

LatvianTwist 10-06-2012 12:53 PM

At 1st, it's MacKinnon, no questions asked.

Eriksson - Benn - MacKinnon

That's just so, so dirty.

Jones hasn't really impressed so far in the dub, but I'd give him a few more games just to acclimate and get used to a new league. If he falls, though (doubt it), only looks better for us.


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