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-   -   Scheifele sliding? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1269977)

cbcwpg 10-11-2012 12:25 PM

Scheifele sliding?
 
SCHEIFELE SLIDING?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/spo...173650801.html

Read into this what you will, Jets fans, but Mark Scheifele has dropped considerably in Hockey Future's latest prospect rankings. The Jets' top pick in 2011 has fallen from No. 14 in the spring to No. 32 in the fall ranking released this week.

The editors' rationale?

"He was not as dominant in performances for Canada at the WJC and his OHL production slipped after the tournament. He was also not particularly impressive in his 10 games with the St. John's IceCaps in the AHL playoffs, although some of that can be attributed to a more limited role. Scheifele has improved his scoring touch, which nicely complements his already fantastic passing skills. He has good vision and on-ice awareness and though he does not use his size to be a bruiser, it should help him endure the punishment of the pro game. Whether he is able to develop into a consistent scorer at the pro level is the primary reason for Scheifele's slide in the rankings."


Just one sites opinion.

wpgsilver 10-11-2012 12:32 PM

I don't put any stock in stuff like that.
We'll see how he does this season. Hopefully he has a big WJC and then everyone will be back on his jock.
I was impressed with him in the Canada-Russia series, so I'm not overly concerned.

Joe Hallenback 10-11-2012 12:36 PM

Every prospect "slides" when it comes to prospect type sites because something shinier comes along to replace it.

Grind 10-11-2012 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback (Post 54912399)
Every prospect "slides" when it comes to prospect type sites because something shinier comes along to replace it.

precisely.

you can be almost garaunteed that at least 7-8 of the first round picks of the latest year are going to walk into the top 30, and its nearly a given that at least 5 will get in the top 10. Its more to do with "this (new)guy makes sense here" in isolation then it does with "this (new)guys waay better then this (old)guy".

For the main part, these new draftees haven't had expectations by the scouting community heaped on them yet. By next draft they will have, and most (at least many) will have disappointed, thus those who haven't had the opportunity to disappoint will take the higher spots, again.

Furthermore, the Analysis provided definitly makes it seem like the author just looked at stats. I don't know if that's true, but what others who have watched him and mentioned as his main improvements (skating, strength, two way play, "grit") are completely absent in the article and all statements could be directly tracked to a point on the stat card (increase in goals, low scoring at the WJC [mind you hauberdau and strome didn't exactly set it on fire either], decreased production in the second half, box cars for the AHL). I also don't feel the appropriate weight to " a lesser role" is being used.


unfortunately, though i feel the points I've stated are completely valid to discredit the authors summary, i'm a fan and am more then willing to rationalize why my homerish-thoughts are correct :D

Hammer Slammer 10-11-2012 12:56 PM

As we're talking about in the prospect thread, this is a case of someone forming an idea of a player through stats.

Scheifele was rumoured to be fighting an injury during the WJC and still managed a point per game. And I wouldn't judge his AHL production as it was his first taste of AHL action, in the playoffs, after an OHL regular season plus playoffs. And his AHL ice time was purposely limited.

If you look at his stats, sure they may have dropped a bit, but he's still a leading scorer in the OHL, much bigger and more physical than last year and he's skating a fair bit better.

The new prospects were ranked higher than they probably should have been, and I think Scheifele should've held onto a similar spot as last year.

edit - High five to Grind

vBurmi 10-11-2012 12:58 PM

I thought he was sick/injured (don't remember which) for the WJC so I'm not concerned. He was aggressive in the Canada-Russia series and that's what I had really wanted to see him add to his game. As long as he plays huge minutes in Barrie this year and continues to improve, I'm happy with his progression.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Hallenback (Post 54912399)
Every prospect "slides" when it comes to prospect type sites because something shinier comes along to replace it.

Precisely. It's in their best interest to sell us on the new prospects being better than the old ones.

Aerial 10-11-2012 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vBurmi (Post 54912877)
I thought he was sick/injured (don't remember which) for the WJC so I'm not concerned.

As far as I know, that rumour started on this board or similar by people noting how "off" he was playing. A couple of people in a position to know have said very emphatically that he wasn't fighting an injury. He just didn't have a good tournament.

That said, the whole "sliding" thing is silly. As others said, it's just "shinier and newer" syndrome. Each year you're going to add some prospects that are legitimately better, and some which still just haven't had time to disappoint.

He had a really strong playoffs with Barrie and a strong Canada-Russia Challenge, and is off to a super hot start in the OHL this season. That's all that really matters, not subjective and somewhat arbitrary "rankings."

ETA: As far as his games with the IceCaps, I just thought he was exhausted and it showed. McCambridge said similar during the off-season, that he was just really, really worn down at that point... kid had been playing hockey for basically two years straight and was coming off a WILD year and a pretty bruising play-off campaign with Barrie. They wanted him to get a taste of it, but I don't think they were looking for him to lead the charge at that point.

sipowicz 10-11-2012 01:29 PM

Any pick in the draft is a crap shoot, some players continue to improve as they progress through higher levels of competition others don't. Pretty sure Scheff will be okay, he seems to have a natural hockey sense and seems to always be where the puck is.

Grind 10-11-2012 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sipowicz (Post 54913725)
Any pick in the draft is a crap shoot, some players continue to improve as they progress through higher levels of competition others don't. Pretty sure Scheff will be okay, he seems to have a natural hockey sense and seems to always be where the puck is.

i'd say its his strongest skill, and on some games its blindingly obvious. Kids knows where to be.

YWGinYYZ 10-11-2012 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grind (Post 54913991)
i'd say its his strongest skill, and on some games its blindingly obvious. Kids knows where to be.

Like his on the fly one-timer for the 4-3 win the other night.

I really like the combo of Camara and Scheif - Camara's going to be a good PF for the Bruins if he keeps developing the way he is. Great practice for an eventual Kane - Scheifele line in future.

jimmycrackcorn 10-11-2012 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grind (Post 54913991)
i'd say its his strongest skill, and on some games its blindingly obvious. Kids knows where to be.

That's what stuck out the most while he was with the Jets from my perspective. He seems to have an innate hockey sense and you just can't teach that stuff :handclap:

Hoping he continues to improve and that he'll be back here when the Jets start playing again - sometime in the fall of 2013.

garret9 10-11-2012 02:15 PM

I'm going to try to be non-homerish and reason this out... There's a lot of variables

It makes sense for a prospect to slide as new members are added into the sample survey:
*Few spots due to a couple top prospects actually being better or likely to be better in the future
*Few spots with "shinney new toy syndrome"
*These lists take things in account like age and such so it makes sense that older players development and improvement can't be a large factor unless he isn't improving

That being said:
*I hate judging prospects on stats alone, especially boxcar stats, while using ridiculously small sample sizes such as tournaments and playoffs... that logic has our Machacek is 3x better than Giroux or Crosby cos his pts/gp was like that...

To me what matters is:
1) Scheifele continues to improve his skating (check), offensive production (check), playmaking skills (check) and possession game (check). Once you have your pick, I don't see much use in comparing to others.
2) We continue in trying to solidify our prospect cupboards with players who can make a difference in the pro-level (check)

I find it very interesting and like the fact that, while he has been falling in some of these 3rd party lists (HF, HP, etc), they have been recognizing an increased chance that he becomes a legitimate 1st line pivot.

2011 Hockey Prospectus:
Quote:

The Good: Mark Scheifele had a good year from a counting statistics standpoint on a poor Barrie team and a good Under-18 tournament; his stock has come a ways over the course of the past season. Scheifele's puck skills are fine, and while he doesn't bring any form of flashy stick-handling or stretch passes to the table, he can handle the puck at a moderate level and make the right distributions while bringing the puck up the ice and on the power play. He also shows good puck protection skills along the side boards. Scheifele projects as a solid-average to above-average physical player as he has room to fill out even though he's already notably strong and works well along the walls. His hockey sense is above-average and it's what will drive his value towards the highest level, as he anticipates the flow of the game well, rarely turns the puck over, and plays well in his own zone.

The Bad: Scheifele is a low ceiling but highly projectable player without a true standout tool. His skating grades as below-average, and while his mechanics are fine, his feet are just somewhat heavy and he doesn't have an NHL-level top speed.

Projection: An average second line center who safely projects as a below-average second to above-average third line center.
2012 Hockey Prospectus:
Quote:

The Good: Mark Scheifele has high-end hockey sense and is an absolutely fantastic playmaker. He makes plays with his hands and vision every single shift and can have the offense flow through him. Scheifele is a good defensive center who is very responsible and aware for a junior-aged player. When he fills out, he'll be a good physical player in terms of protecting the puck and winning board battles.

The Bad: Scheifele's skating showed notable improvement this season, even at times looking pro-average, but he can still look a little sluggish at times. He needs to gain a good amount of strength before he's fully ready for the top level.

Projection: He could be a below-average top line center.
I won't lie, I'm realistic in my expectations. Mark Scheifele may not be a first line centre... but as long as we keep drafting guys that could be top end players/difference makers and as long as those prospects push to improve... I'm fine

GrandChelems 10-11-2012 02:27 PM

These rankings are useless.

Holden Caulfield 10-11-2012 04:39 PM

Usually I don't mind hf rankings, but having I completely disagree with every single player in 21-30 range over Schefiele other than Murray. Guys like Grigorenko, Strome, Kreider, Dumba (:facepalm), Reilly should not be ranked over Schefiele, I cannot see that at all.

ps241 10-11-2012 04:40 PM

Great posts boys.


Can only add that When Zinger was asked about him on H & L yesterday he felt Mark has improved and was quite positive in his assessment. Craig has not seen him play live this season so far and that was schedules soon. zinger felt Mark's time in St John's was really valuable and Mark grew, learned about the pro game, and was really easy to work with.

Zinger was calling OT like he saw it on most of the prospects but I got the sense Mark was on track in Craig's opinion.

King Woodballs 10-11-2012 05:51 PM

I am not worried nor do I care.
Marky Mark will turn out fine

Bob E 10-11-2012 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield (Post 54918337)
Usually I don't mind hf rankings, but having I completely disagree with every single player in 21-30 range over Schefiele other than Murray. Guys like Grigorenko, Strome, Kreider, Dumba (:facepalm), Reilly should not be ranked over Schefiele, I cannot see that at all.

Agree 100%.

TroubaFan1 10-11-2012 07:14 PM

I've said it before and i'll say it again. The Jets should have taken Couturier or even Hamilton instead of Scheifele.

EpicGingy 10-11-2012 07:37 PM

You say this, yet we haven't seen either of them when they're fully developed. Let them enter their prime, and then judge. It's not like Couturier would have lifted us to the playoffs last year, anyways.

King Woodballs 10-11-2012 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 (Post 54921755)
I've said it before and i'll say it again. The Jets should have taken Couturier or even Hamilton instead of Scheifele.

Who cares already.
Lets talk in five years.

Bob E 10-11-2012 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EpicGingy (Post 54922351)
You say this, yet we haven't seen either of them when they're fully developed. Let them enter their prime, and then judge. It's not like Couturier would have lifted us to the playoffs last year, anyways.

:clap:

YWGinYYZ 10-11-2012 07:57 PM

Unfortunately, I can in fact confirm that Scheifele is sliding. :(

http://www.twitchmedia.com/jets/misc...le_sliding.jpg

;)

EpicGingy 10-11-2012 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ (Post 54922891)
Unfortunately, I can in fact confirm that Scheifele is sliding. :(

http://www.twitchmedia.com/jets/misc...le_sliding.jpg

;)

:laugh::handclap::nod:

Noticed Scheifele is gonna kill the kid at the bottom of the slide with the way he's going... maybe we should have drafted Couturier :sarcasm:

wpgsilver 10-11-2012 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ (Post 54922891)
Unfortunately, I can in fact confirm that Scheifele is sliding. :(

http://www.twitchmedia.com/jets/misc...le_sliding.jpg

;)

The kid at the bottom of the slide is in for a world of hurt...

Damn, quick edit Epic.

Daddy Longlegs 10-11-2012 08:56 PM

I knew this was gonna be the case. Scheifele was never supposed to be a #8 overall pick. To pass on Cotourier and Hamilton for him was crazy risky. Could have made Chevy look like a hero. Now he's gonna look like a goat. That's the risk you run when you make ballsy moves. I see Scheifele being a Wellwood type player and that's it. I say trade him now while his value is at it's highest. For say a one Matt Duchene perhaps.:D


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