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-   -   OT: Tropical Storm Sandy **BE CAREFUL EAST COAST!!** (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1274251)

Noreaster96 10-22-2012 01:03 PM

Tropical Storm Sandy **BE CAREFUL EAST COAST!!**
 
Hey all, I was just nosing around weather things and came across some computer models that hits the Mid Atlantic and/or Northeast coast pretty hard with what is now tropical depression 18...

The potential storm is still around 7 days out so what does this mean?

DON'T PANIC, just start to think about what one would do in case such a storm were to impact Long Island... do you have a way to keep in touch with family/friends should the power go out, extra batteries, gas for cars, etc.

I'm NOT by any means saying go out and get generators, a years worth of food and water, but I just wanted to give people the heads up...

I know from the previous Irene thread that there are quite a few weather enthusiasts here so im sure a bunch of you already have seen some of the models, but still...

Below is a link to a computer model known as the EURO (ECMWF) from Penn State Ewall in case you're interested. The Euro is one of the more reliable models out there but it is important to note that most of these are not created for dealing with tropical cyclones, so it should be taken with a grain of salt... but look at hours 168-216 to see what I'm talking about

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF...ecmwfloop.html

That link will change tomorrow when the new model comes out.

Also, another model, the GFS, is out to sea and a miss on the latest run, but yesterdays runs produced between 10-20 inches of rain for Long Island from this storm... not that thats going to happen, but just something to note

***AND just to clarify, there is a chance that a storm hits LI, but theres also a very good chance no storm hits here at all... so its definitely not a lock to occur, just wanted to make sure people understand that

IslesBeBack* 10-22-2012 05:20 PM

I'm a big weather buff, myself!

One model has this storm combining with a surface low that will hover over the northeast next week, creating an absolute nightmare for L.I. For example, estimates are that LI could receive over 20 inches of rain from this storm. And that's being generous at this point. Winds could be sustained around 30+ mph creating 2-3 days of hell.

Not good.

TeamKidd 10-22-2012 06:10 PM

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al182012.png

sorry to screw the pooch, but it seems like all the models are taking the storm east....which means nothing....but this would be exceptionally late in the year for a storm to make it to the mid atlantic....westerlies and SST arent that favorable.....yet....being in the brave new world of climate change....literally anything is possible....

Noreaster96 10-22-2012 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeamKidd (Post 55197713)
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al182012.png

sorry to screw the pooch, but it seems like all the models are taking the storm east....which means nothing....but this would be exceptionally late in the year for a storm to make it to the mid atlantic....westerlies and SST arent that favorable.....yet....being in the brave new world of climate change....literally anything is possible....

It is highly climatologically unlikely... Which is one reason I suspect that models will tend to keep the storm further to the east for a while. One thing that I think will help the storm maintain strength should it take a run at the coast is the highly unusual track it would take, sort of hooking into the northeast, which would keep it in deeper waters and over the gulf stream rather than over cooler, shallower waters.

Need to watch for the strength of the trough moving through because it appears what happens is this trough "catches" the storm and pulls it back towards the coast... the more amplified the trough, the more effective it will be at pulling it back.

The 00z models should have a new set of recon data on Sandra... although it'll be tough to nail this down until the shortwave which will eventually dig out said trough comes over a position where we have enough data collection points to pick up the exact strength of it... The stronger that is, the deeper the trough, the further west it will go...

Northern Hemispheric blocking will also play a major role, a -NAO would go a long way towards pushing this further west...

Also, if the storm were to hit as depicted in the WORST case scenario, winds would be much stronger than 30 mph IMO

Also, MODS can we change the title to Tropical Storm Sandra? its been named now, so might as well

Homeland Security 10-22-2012 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noreaster96 (Post 55202951)
It is highly climatologically unlikely... Which is one reason I suspect that models will tend to keep the storm further to the east for a while. One thing that I think will help the storm maintain strength should it take a run at the coast is the highly unusual track it would take, sort of hooking into the northeast, which would keep it in deeper waters and over the gulf stream rather than over cooler, shallower waters.

Need to watch for the strength of the trough moving through because it appears what happens is this trough "catches" the storm and pulls it back towards the coast... the more amplified the trough, the more effective it will be at pulling it back.

The 00z models should have a new set of recon data on Sandra... although it'll be tough to nail this down until the shortwave which will eventually dig out said trough comes over a position where we have enough data collection points to pick up the exact strength of it... The stronger that is, the deeper the trough, the further west it will go...

Northern Hemispheric blocking will also play a major role, a -NAO would go a long way towards pushing this further west...

Also, if the storm were to hit as depicted in the WORST case scenario, winds would be much stronger than 30 mph IMO

Also, MODS can we change the title to Tropical Storm Sandra? its been named now, so might as well

Done.

Mr Wentworth 10-23-2012 06:14 AM

The storm track ballooning out the further it gets from its current location type of map thingy I saw this morning had it just skirting Montauk on its left-most edge.

bstash19 10-23-2012 06:28 AM

its tropical storm sandy, by the way.

Noreaster96 10-23-2012 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theoffspring447 (Post 55210475)
its tropical storm sandy, by the way.

... Shut uppppp :laugh:

Yes, yes it is sorry about that haha... Can we fix that? Sorry 10 min haha

Anyway, a quick update to the forecast, GFS still misses us, Euro still clobbers us.

Can't do much work from my phone but by thursday-fri we should have a much better idea of what's going to happen. I plan on taking a quick peek at stuff and making a list of necessities just in case such steps would be required cuz if a storm does look imminent, needless to say everything is going to be packed with people

Potvins Cups 10-23-2012 11:04 AM

This is really interesting, and the fact that I'm reading it makes me realize how much I must be missing hockey!!!!!!!!!!!

Homeland Security 10-23-2012 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theoffspring447 (Post 55210475)
its tropical storm sandy, by the way.

Fixed


Quote:

Originally Posted by Noreaster96 (Post 55212069)
... Shut uppppp :laugh:

Yes, yes it is sorry about that haha... Can we fix that? Sorry 10 min haha

Anyway, a quick update to the forecast, GFS still misses us, Euro still clobbers us.

Can't do much work from my phone but by thursday-fri we should have a much better idea of what's going to happen. I plan on taking a quick peek at stuff and making a list of necessities just in case such steps would be required cuz if a storm does look imminent, needless to say everything is going to be packed with people

That's okay.

BossyMVP 10-23-2012 06:21 PM

can we thrown in some of the thread from a year and a half ago when the almost hurricane hit us and we all prayed for a coliseum collapse?

BTW, what's with halloween storms the last 2 years?

WhitePony 10-23-2012 09:16 PM

Looking more likely that the "perfect storm" scenario could become a reality. Still far out, but more models are going that way...

"BUT AT THE SAME TIME A GROWING
NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SIDING WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION OF TAKING THE STORM NORTHWARD ALONG 70W
THEREAFTER...AND MAKING A NW TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY
MON-TUE AS THE STORM PHASES WITH AND/OR UNDERGOES FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND AS THE DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING HIGH OFFERS LITTLE CHANCE OF AN OUT-TO-SEA PATH."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

SouthShore91 10-24-2012 02:23 AM

This is fascinating. I go to school in Connecticut hoping this doesn't totally knock out my universities infrastructure like the last hurricane did. Monitoring this extremely carefully as I have many family members who live on the coast both on LI and here in Connecticut.

lorwood 10-24-2012 06:31 AM

European models show a "crushing" blow to Long Island and Conn.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...8962_blog.html

Concerning. I live in an area with a high water table. Over the years I have done much work and have had good success eliminating flooding problems during a "normal" storm (no basement thank God) but huge quantities of rain could cause some real problems.

Bones45 10-24-2012 07:58 AM

STOP POSTING AND GET TO THE STORE IMMEDIATELY TO BUY ALL THE MILK. EGGS, AND BREAD YOU COULD POSSIBLY NEED!!!


:)


Still a ways off -- having followed some of these models for winter storms, we all know how much they can vary. If by Saturday, they all are in agreement, then Ill build the arc -- and stock up on liquor and cheap women...

Noreaster96 10-24-2012 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bones45 (Post 55238571)
STOP POSTING AND GET TO THE STORE IMMEDIATELY TO BUY ALL THE MILK. EGGS, AND BREAD YOU COULD POSSIBLY NEED!!!


:)


Still a ways off -- having followed some of these models for winter storms, we all know how much they can vary. If by Saturday, they all are in agreement, then Ill build the arc -- and stock up on liquor and cheap women...

The last part is the most important of all :laugh:

But seriously what I would recommend at this point is to...

A) Talk to ones family about emergency plans in case they are necessary
B) Look at stocks of batteries, gas, non-perishables etc.

In case this does hit us, it will be nearly impossible to try and take stock and then go to the store if we wait until Sunday to get what we need. Therefore

DONT RUN TO THE STORE JUST YET

But just have a list ready and prepare to go in case it becomes necessary... Like Bones said, Saturday is a good day where we should have a good idea of whats going to happen

Poulin 0n My St1ck 10-24-2012 11:10 AM

Gonna be some nice swell coming in. Who else is paddling out? :yo:

bstash19 10-24-2012 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bride of Chuckie (Post 55242783)
Gonna be some nice swell coming in. Who else is paddling out? :yo:

gunna be some tasty waves bro

Ziggy16 10-24-2012 07:19 PM

The 2 models now show this:

Euro: Eye Runs over NYC, LI Nailed with Near Hurricane Winds, Heavier flooding than Irene

USGS: Eye goes far east, lands in Maine, LI still hit with TS Winds

both models have a 400 mile difference in opinion on where it will be on Monday.. On Top of Us or to the East of Us.. yet regardless of track, the size of it will cause us to feel the outer fringes of it anyway..

http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/tropic...us_600x405.jpg

nyscene 10-25-2012 10:22 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...11W5_NL_sm.gif

Not looking good for us...

Noreaster96 10-25-2012 11:41 AM

While the track looks bad for Long Island, it is important to note the trends to push it further to the Southwest with each progressive forecast. That being said, at the moment the National Hurricane Center is officially forecasting Sandy to make landfall on/around Long Island early Tuesday. Even if the storm DOES NOT make direct landfall on Long Island, the storm is large enough that strong winds and heavy rain will still impact Long Island.

Just FWIW, the latest run of one model, the GFS, indicated what would be the worst possible scenario for Long Island with a ~940 mb low pressure system making landfall and stalling near Long Island, which would be a devastating hit. Not saying thats going to happen, but its important to note

WHILE ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO CALL EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT THIS POINT, IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE READY BEFOREHAND

In a worst case scenario we could be dealing with around 10+ Inches of rain, tropical storm force winds with hurricane strength gusts, major beach erosion and tremendous power loss throughout the area.

For this reason, ive started to personally gather necessities. I hope, the worst doesnt come to pass, but if worst comes to worst I have them all ready for the next potential storm...

PLEASE PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE National Hurricane Center for all future forecasts as this is a dangerous and potentially devastating storm and all in the direct path of it need to be prepared when and if the time comes


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...daynl#contents

that is the page for Hurricane Sandy in case anyone is interested

CDirt 10-25-2012 12:04 PM

Time to start buying up some batteries. Chances of it hitting New England are now at about 70 percent. Lately when these storms hit we have been losing power.

Funny how we made it through that crazy winter two years ago and didn't lose power once. Now it happens when ever we get an inch of rain.

puckstopper55 10-25-2012 12:16 PM

i bought a generator, so I think I am OK with that, but I am worried about the rain/wind. My soil is more clay and doesnt absorb the best. Hopefully the wind wont be any worse than last years storm, so using that logic I should be ok. ... lets hope.

lorwood 10-25-2012 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by puckstopper55 (Post 55272557)
i bought a generator, so I think I am OK with that, but I am worried about the rain/wind. My soil is more clay and doesnt absorb the best. Hopefully the wind wont be any worse than last years storm, so using that logic I should be ok. ... lets hope.

Yeah I bought a generator for Irene. Now I have to change the oil put in some fresh gas and make sure she starts. (Wish I would have put that transfer switch in!)

I also have poor drainage (no basement) I won't be able to handle 10" of rain unless it is drawn out through an extended period. This is my biggest worry.

IceAce 10-25-2012 12:55 PM

c'mon Snow-i-cane!!!!!


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