Colorado Avalanche expansion draft casualties
 

There is a thread in the business forum about NHL possibly expanding with two teams. Probably won't happen but for laughs lets have a hypothetical expansion draft using the rules from the 2000 expansion.

You are allowed to protect:

* one goaltender, five defensemen, and nine forwards

or

* two goaltenders, three defensemen, and seven forwards

Players on ELCs and prospects are protected.

List of Avs players under contract

-----------------------------------------

I choose to protect one goalie, five defensemen and nine forwards

G: Varlamov

D: Erik Johnson
D: Jan Hejda
D: Ryan O'Byrne
D: Ryan Wilson
D: Greg Zanon

F: Paul Stastny
F: David Jones
F: P-A Parentau
F: Matt Duchene
F: Ryan O'Reilly (not under contract, but he'll be)
F: Steve Downie
F: Milan Hejduk
F: Jamie McGinn
F: Cody McLeod

While I could see protecting Giguere at the cost of the last two D and the last two F, I suspect with two new expansion teams they might pick up three of our defensemen and we'll be in trouble, even if they aren't amazing.

G: Steve Varlamov
G: J.S. Giguere

D: Erik Johnson
D: Jan Hejda
D: Ryan O'Byrne

F: Paul Stastny
F: David Jones
F: P-A Parenteau
F: Matt Duchene
F: Ryan O'Reilly
F: Steve Downie
F: Jamie McGinn

I feel bad for leaving out Hejduk and Wilson but Giggy is more important to our team in my opinion.

Varly

EJ
O'Bryne
Hejda
Wilson
Hunwick (I might catch flack for this but he actually played better than O'Brien and I'm not sold on Zanon)

Duchene
O'Reilly
Stastny
PAP
Jones
McGinn
Downie
Hejduk
McCleod (I guess we don't really have anyone else to protect if you go with 9 forwards)

We kind of luck out because we don't have to protect Landeskog as he is on a ELC whcih gives us an extra forward to protect.

I wouldn't cry if we lost Giggy, I like him as a backup and mentor but he is getting up there in age and with our prospect pool of goalies, I'd be fine with one of Aitto or Pickard getting 20 or so games behind Varly or even finding a cheap vet replacement to keep those 2 in the AHL.

So basically an expansion team would get a chance at O'Brien, Kobasew. Mitchell, Zanon and Giggy. The only one I'd see for sure getting plucked is Giggy. Then O'Brien and Zanon would be possible casualties.

You can only protect one goalie

EDIT: oppps never read it properly. But leaving only 3 dmen is pretty risky..

You are forgetting one glaring rule...
You have to expose 2 forwards with NHL experience (40 games this season or 70 between this and last season) and 1 D. If you protect 2 goalies, you would need a third goalie with NHL experience (no goalie is required to be exposed if you protect just one). Only McCleod and Shane meet those requirements outside the main players. Oddly they were both retained rather than lost to free agency. Both UFA pick ups are close to the needed requirement.

Nothing wrong with protecting Hunwick, he had an excellent season in '11-12 when actually called upon to lace up the skates. People cannot eliminate '10-11 from their memories, which makes them extremely biased. O'Brien had good stretches but he was a complete and utter mess, and re-signing him for 3 seasons makes me unhappy to say the least (though I guess we can always trade him away).

Varlamov

EJ, Hejda, Zanon, O'Byrne, Hunwick

Landeskog, O'Reilly, Downie
Olver, Stastny, McGinn
Parenteau, Duchene, ??

Logically the last forward spot would be Jones, but given his one-dimensional play, question marks about him returning back to his original skating speed, and mediocre contract, maybe Kobasew instead. Mitchell and Hejduk would be other uninspiring candidates, though Hejduk would probably win based on history.

ELC's are protected.

My mistake. Then Hejduk, Kobasew and Mitchell for those two and the empty spot I guess. Van Der Gulik would be worthwhile protecting but it doesn't seem like the team thinks he belongs in the NHL over a full season.

Varly
Giggy

EJ
ROB
Wilson

Duchene
PAP
McGinn
Staz
Jones
ROR
Downie

Yep that would be my list...

This just highlights the fact that, that forward list with Landeskog still only accounts for 8 forwards. Hoping Hejduk can play a top 9 role effectively scares me... Which is why I think we are still short one top 9 winger IMO. Hopefully one of the kids can fill that role or one of our centers is going end up with the short straw and a weaker line.

Any expansion draft will be held, at least, slightly differently. Upcoming UFAs may not count towards the experience requirement... as before they were nice pick ups as they could bring in compensation via draft picks. Hejduk would be left unprotected.

Also, players with two years or less of experience would be exempt. A player in their third year of an ELC, with 3 years of "experience", would need to be protected.

This expansion draft will see some interesting variations due to the numerous changes in the past 10+ seasons.

I'd be more simple, by saying:

Avs Keep
Forwards: Stastny, Duchene, O'Reilly, Landeskog, Downie
Defence: Johnson
Goalie: Varlamov, Giguere
Rookies: Elliott, Barrie, Hishon, Sgarbossa

Avs May Lose
Anyone else

In my opinion, the players I have left off would be expendible.

Does Rookies equate to Prospects and you feel the likes of Heard, Siemens, Malone, etc are expendable or are they a separate category you left out?

I'd also argue that McGinn, Parenteau and Jones are keepers considering they could combine for 60 goals and 100 assists by the end of the season.

G- Giguere

D - Johnson
D - Zanon
D - Wilson
D - O'Brien
D - Hejda

F - Stastny
F - Landeskog
F - Hejduk
F - Parenteau
F - Downie
F - Duchene
F - O'Reilly
F - Jones
F - McLeod

Stastny, Landeskog, and Hejduk need to play on the same line. Sacco should try it if the lockout ends. Power forward (Lando), Playmaker (Stazz) and a sniper in Hejduk. Worth a try.

Lol you'd protect Giggy over Varly?

I would protect
Varlamov
Johnson, Hejda, O'byrne, Wilson, O'brien
Stastny, Duchene, O'reilly, Mcginn, Downie, Parenteau, Hejduk, Jones, Mcleod
Lando + Prospects protected by ELCs

Keeps the entire core intact

:amazed: :laugh:

As mediocre as our defense is, it would look a hell of a lot worse if this happened. I see Wilson, O'Byrne and Hejda at least being picked up.

it's much better to keep one very good goalie than two mediocre dmen and two depth forwards

I'm surprised by the lack of Hejduk being protected in your guys' posts. Even if he is close to retirement I am 99.45% sure we will protect him.

No way in hell Jiggy gets protected over Varly unless you forgot we had Varlamov.

That's a tough call. Obviously he means a lot to the franchise but do you really protect a guy who plays on the fourth line and realistically should have been scratched a lot of last season?

I think other teams would have the decency to not take him. Also they might not want him.

I don't see Hejduk as being that big a target for other teams.

if anything teams would be more likely to take him, on an expansion team he is definitely top 6, and there tends to be a lack of leadership on those teams in many cases, can't hold out hope that the other team's gm is a decent guy.

* one goaltender, five defensemen, and nine forwards

Varlamov

Johnson
Wilson
O'Byrne
Zanon
Hejda

Duchene
Hejduk
Parenteau
Landeskog
O'Reilly
Downie
McGinn
Stastny
Jones

Hejduk would be an UFA shortly after any expansion draft. He would be left unprotected because any team taking him would get nothing once the next week passes and he re-signs with the Avs. No need to protect UFAs unless you think they may sign with the new team during that week window.