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Lowetide 09-20-2003 04:56 AM

Comrie's Trade Value
 
It's been an interesting read in the last few days in regard to what young Mike Comrie might fetch in a trade. I have to admit to being somewhat shocked by some suggestions (Kovalchuk) and underwhelmed by others.

One of the problems with getting a fair idea of his value is that Comrie is constantly called things like "a solid #2 center" which implies he's at the very best the NHL's 31st best centerman.

Not so. Even last season when he was injured, Comrie's totals put him 89th in league scoring, 34th among centermen (this according to McKeen's definition of centermen. There are likely some guys who play on the wing more often, but we'll go with that). Among the centermen ahead of him were Mike York (88th), Daymond Langkow (86th), Chris Drury (81st), Radek Bonk (80th) and Scott Gomez (77th).

I think it's fair to say that Mike Comrie is a top line centerman by the strictest definition. He's among the 30 best players in the league at his position. Agreed?

Okay, so if we can agree on that, where do we peg his value? Is he better than ALL of the players listed above? Let's take the list above and go through it one by one.


Is he better than Mike York? Hmmm. Comrie's best season (33-27-60) and York's finest (20-41-61) are fairly similar, and York has more dimensions to his game than does Comrie. If there was an expansion draft, and they were both available, I'd take York.

Next up is Daymond Langkow. He's three years older, and bigger. Langkow has been discussed so often on this forum it seems like he's an Oiler at least in spirit. He's had offensive seasons that wouldn't look out of place alongside Comrie's, and has blossomed the last 4 seasons. Still, Comrie's offense is a little stronger, and Langkow is at an age where he may have peaked. I'd call this a draw too.

Chris Drury is a more versatile player than Comrie, but Comrie has a little more ability with the puck imo. Drury's best offensive seasons (24-41-65 in 00-01) are about where Comrie is, but Drury hasn't stepped forward since that season. We don't know that Comrie will, but it's a bet I'd take. So, considering that Drury has more tools, we'll call this a draw.

Radek Bonk is 4 years older than Comrie, and making a whack of cash (3.2) by Oilers standards. Still, when compared to Comrie, Bonk's wide range of skills exceeds Comrie's abilities imo. Bonk is a big man, is very smart without the puck and has been known to get physical. His PPG totals over the last three seasons (.77,.85,.80) are better than Comrie's (.74,.73,.54). Of the players on this list, Bonk is clearly the best imo.

Scott Gomez is the same age as Comrie, and although bigger he's no tiger. Gomez has fallen off as a scorer since Alex Mogilny left, and is probably not quite Comrie's equal as an offensive player. He, like Comrie, doesn't have alot of secondary skills that add value to his game. I'd say Comrie is a touch better.

So, by my estimate, Comrie is not the equal of Bonk, but is a better player at this time than Gomez. He's on par with Drury, Langkow and York, although York has a slight edge.

Is that fair? If you picked up the paper and saw that Comrie had been dealt for Daymond Langkow or Scott Gomez, would that be out of whack?

Walsher 09-20-2003 05:47 AM

Good insights on this point! Personally, I think that there is no way the Oiler's will deal Comrie now or in a few years. His potential is unlimited as shown by his last couple seasons even though injuries slowed him last year. Langkow to me would be a good pickup but IMO Daymond has maxed out or close to maxed out his potential. He has been in the league a while now and his style will only allow him to go so high offensively - defensively a different story. I would equate Gomez much closer than Langkow. Gomez has lots of upside. He is young, skilled, and extremely experienced even though he is young. If you could add a guy with youth to an Oilers team lacking any cup rings other than in the pressbox and coaching staff it would have to be a good influence. BUT Comrie is still much more skilled and suited for an Oilers game. To me the only deal that would provide the Oilers with what they need (young, cheap, fast, skilled, big centerman) would be a deal to San Jose for Marleau. He could have been available in the past but now he is set to become one of the elite players in the league IMO. In essence there is nothing available that would up grade from Comrie without increasing payroll substantially. That said I would not expect any moves. His value right now is nothing compared to what it can be in the future.

Lowetide 09-20-2003 05:55 AM

Agree completely Walsher, the BEST result is that Comrie stays here and the Oilers win with him. I keep dropping by the Oilers site and tsn hoping there's a headline COMRIE SIGNS!

hockeyaddict101 09-20-2003 07:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lowetide
Agree completely Walsher, the BEST result is that Comrie stays here and the Oilers win with him. I keep dropping by the Oilers site and tsn hoping there's a headline COMRIE SIGNS!

Me too, but I have the feeling he did ask to be traded. Lowe didn't deny it when he was asked at the press conference, I believe his response was that he wasn't going to comment.

I hope I am completely wrong on this one because I hope too he signs!

Walsher 09-20-2003 07:15 AM

If Lowe is smart he won't trade him. His value is so low compared to what it will be. Comrie has no legs to stand on - he will crack before the Oilers do. No arbitration rights, not a ufa, only been in the league a couple full seasons, in his home town with everyone pressuring him to sign. Guaranteed he will sign - even if it is a one year deal to get through cba. To trade Comrie would be foolish.

speeds 09-20-2003 07:52 AM

got to agree Walsher, I wonder if, in theory, it comes to the point where you know things won't work out long term, they'd probably be better off to get him signed to a one year deal, play the hell out of him - let him build up his stats - and move him at the trade deadline???

Hemsky01 09-20-2003 07:59 AM

Well I've read about a 1000 opinions (from here to oilfans) on Mikey and here is my two cents worth. Nobody that anyone here has mentioned (outside of maybe Simon Gagne) would make up for the whole in the lineup that Comrie leaves. And lets not forget, he scored 50 plus points in a year where he missed a pile of game and in a year where we would all agree he didn't nearly play his best hockey. He lead the Oilers with 6 game winning goals in a year where everyone seems to think he sucked. If that is what they call the dread sophmore jinx, I want to see what this guy can do. A friend of mine played with Comrie in Kootney and said he was one of the most motivated guys he had ever seen. I'm sorry. I'm not say KLowe is doing the wrong thing by not giving him the money he's asking for but there is no way Comrie goes anywhere without a legit young star coming back. In my books, Comrie will be a 80 - 90pt. player some day.(The Briere comparisons are laughable) I'm not saying his trade value is that of a 80 - 90 pt player, just that that is his potential. I would take him over Datsyk, Zetterberg but again, that is just my opinion. Hope Lowe doesn't trade him because what he could get for him now would never be enough.

Mr Sakich 09-20-2003 08:16 AM

the thing about comrie is that it is more than just points that set his value. This is a young man who didn't back off the challenge of being a 1st line centre in his first full year in the nhl ( in his hometown ). Most kids would have froze or choked on that. It is not like minny where the fans are happy if you show up. IN edm, they demand a winner.

He was born a millionaire but yet managed to make the nhl as a 5'9" player. That tells me he has guts to spare. At any time during his hockey career, he could have given up and gone home to daddy's millions. IMO, it is much harder for a rich kid to succeed in sports than it is for a ghetto black kid because the rich kid has alternatives.

He has put up better numbers than havlat and very close to gaborik. IMO, he will end up being better than gaborik because he will never quit trying. That is his trade value.

Lowetide 09-20-2003 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thor dyck
He has put up better numbers than havlat and very close to gaborik. IMO, he will end up being better than gaborik because he will never quit trying. That is his trade value.

imo Havlat's quite abit ahead of Comrie. He's bigger and despite playing on the 3line and getting fewer minutes Havlat keeps getting better. His three year ppg totals (.58,.69,.88) show tremendous growth. Comrie is no slouch (.54.,.73,.74) but is getting more minutes (17.5 for Comrie and 16.2 for Havlat) and has superior linemates.

Gaborik is also better than Comrie. His ppg totals (.51,.86,.80) and goal totals (18,30,30) have come on a team that is dedicated to keeping the score low. Gaborik is 18 months younger than Comrie, and has scored 78 goals to Comrie's 61. Gaborik is right at the very top of the NHL's young players imo, just behind Heatley.

I don't think Comrie is on par with these two. Helluva player, though, and I hope he signs soon.

G-Double 09-20-2003 09:32 AM

on the intial post, i don't think that it is fair to say that the top 30 scoring center are actually the top 30 centers in the league and by defaul, those 30 are all ifrst line centers because there are 30 teams in the league. Some teams don't have first line centers and others have 2 possibly 3, one of which is playing the wing.

I know some guys who played with and knew him when h was at michigan and while you can say he was motivated he was also a pompous a-hole, something i've heard numerous times. I thought it was fiunny earlier in the year in one of Guy's interviews when he asked Stoll about his relationship with comrie, beacuse i see thre two o them as being complete opposites off the ice.

Anyway, Comrie is good, would he be tgis good if he weren't spoiled with everything that the Oilers org has given him? Did he deserve it or was he fortunate enough to sstep into a situation that allowed it all to fall into place?? I think comrie would have a bit of a rude awakening going somwhere else to play on a 2nd line, where his wingers were not the best players on the ice and the defensive pairing behind him was more like the 3/4 and not the 1-2...

Disclaimer...i have more to say but i'm typing and i can't see the letters until i post it, hence all the mispellings and 3rd grade jibberish.

Chayos 09-20-2003 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thor dyck
the thing about comrie is that it is more than just points that set his value. This is a young man who didn't back off the challenge of being a 1st line centre in his first full year in the nhl ( in his hometown ). Most kids would have froze or choked on that. It is not like minny where the fans are happy if you show up. IN edm, they demand a winner.

He was born a millionaire but yet managed to make the nhl as a 5'9" player. That tells me he has guts to spare. At any time during his hockey career, he could have given up and gone home to daddy's millions. IMO, it is much harder for a rich kid to succeed in sports than it is for a ghetto black kid because the rich kid has alternatives.

He has put up better numbers than havlat and very close to gaborik. IMO, he will end up being better than gaborik because he will never quit trying. That is his trade value.

IMO Comrie is in the league with Drury, Lankow, Datsyuk, Gomez, Morrison. What his trade value is right now is tough to tell epsecially with the clamp down teams have on spending. My preference would be for the oil to keep him unless you can get value. If we could get good value for him then i say move him so our top 6 doesn't have 2 Shrimps in it. I think the evaluation of him versus mike york is pretty close and so we have a plyer ready to step in and replace Comrie. York would not be a downgrade and the player we would get back would be pretty good too.

I think the best solution is Trading Mike Comrie for a D-man so that we have a solid d-core for this coming season and years to come. We have player who could step up to a top 6 role to replace MC but we have no d-men ready to step into a top 4 role on D to replace Smith or staois.

I think this decision is a slam dunk if we can get good value for him

LoudmouthHemskyfan#1 09-20-2003 10:27 AM

Solid post LT, I'd take Comrie over York just because of the type of player I prefer, but other than that, agree totally.


Chayos: Who exactly is this top-six player that's ready? I sure don't see anyone in the next 2-3 years.

fedabiblio 09-20-2003 02:21 PM

You think it would be possible to get Spezza out of Ottawa for young Comrie? Maybe Moreau and Comrie for Spezza?

s7ark 09-20-2003 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fedabiblio
You think it would be possible to get Spezza out of Ottawa for young Comrie? Maybe Moreau and Comrie for Spezza?

Sen fans turn murderous when talk turns to Spezza leaving town... That trade proposal has been bashed around previously on these boards and was shot down by all Senator fans.

That being said, i really think it is a solid proposal... But it will never happen

TheChase 09-21-2003 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lowetide
imo Havlat's quite abit ahead of Comrie. He's bigger and despite playing on the 3line and getting fewer minutes Havlat keeps getting better. His three year ppg totals (.58,.69,.88) show tremendous growth. Comrie is no slouch (.54.,.73,.74) but is getting more minutes (17.5 for Comrie and 16.2 for Havlat) and has superior linemates.

Gaborik is also better than Comrie. His ppg totals (.51,.86,.80) and goal totals (18,30,30) have come on a team that is dedicated to keeping the score low. Gaborik is 18 months younger than Comrie, and has scored 78 goals to Comrie's 61. Gaborik is right at the very top of the NHL's young players imo, just behind Heatley.

I don't think Comrie is on par with these two. Helluva player, though, and I hope he signs soon.

I consider his current value equivalent to the team to that of Lightnings Martin St. Louis
with more long range potential being so young.
Not having the insight of whats he is asking, we can only speculate
its a overinflated contract comparable to that signed by TB Brad Richard.
Nevertheless, sign him with performance bonuses or TRADE him ..don't drag this out
Having Comrie locked out ( not participating in training camp)
does not make sense. It hurts the entire team and his trade value, period.
He is 22 and the oil are better team with him than without him.
Sign him and if he doesn't meet expectations for dollars
spent , then bundle him and trade him for what the market will offer, come march ...

Dr_Gonz0 09-21-2003 04:48 PM

My take on the Comrie trade is this. If Smyth works as our #1 centre, then we want a good defensively strong 2way centre for our 2nd line, so my proposal is this:

Comrie + a 4th rounder for Handzus and Woywitka

FacelessButcher 09-21-2003 06:52 PM

Two of the better looking possible comrie trades in Legwand and Boyton look slightly less promising now as both have sustained an injury.Boyton hamstring and Legwand hip pointer.

Chayos 09-21-2003 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoudmouthHemskyfan#1
Solid post LT, I'd take Comrie over York just because of the type of player I prefer, but other than that, agree totally.


Chayos: Who exactly is this top-six player that's ready? I sure don't see anyone in the next 2-3 years.

We have horcoff or Reasoner ready to step into the 2nd line center role and York as !st line center to replace comrie. That would leave us with a top 6 of


Smyth York Hemsky
Isbister Horcoff Dvorak.


or Reasoner instead of Dvorak. I think you have to give top 6 minute to a player for him to become one they just don't step into that role without being prodigy's. We as a team would be better served getting a D-man for Comrie. We have drafted centers 2 years running so we have to be ready for the season of 2005 and we haven't got anyone close to being ready on Defense

Master Lok 09-22-2003 11:13 AM

Let Comrie sit. His trade value will NOT drop very much. He's young and has no arbitration rights. In short, the Oilers have MC by his jockstrap. The only way for them to let the jockstrap go is if the Oilers get into an early season slump.

FlyerFire 09-22-2003 11:57 AM

Comrie modest proposal
 
let me say first,i REALLY like the OILERS,they are not my favorite team but i like them very much.i like them for the fact that they can win with a small payroll(Ottawa also) and are always tough to beat,period.when the Great one was there they beat my FLYERS,but i won't hold grudges that was a great team.so i'd propose a trade(and please be gentle).i know the Oil could use size up the middle.How about K.Primeau and a 1st for Comrie or maybe Primo,1st, and SIKLENKA(6'5 wing) or MCNEIL(6'2 minor center) i am not trying to get a top heavy deal-just fair value. any possibilities?MAYBE add VANDERMEER,or THERIEN (2 good sized defenders instaed of Siklenka or Mcneil?

creative giant* 09-22-2003 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebellionhellion2002
How about K.Primeau and a 1st for Comrie or maybe Primo,1st, and SIKLENKA(6'5 wing) or MCNEIL(6'2 minor center) i am not trying to get a top heavy deal-just fair value. any possibilities?MAYBE add VANDERMEER,or THERIEN (2 good sized defenders instaed of Siklenka or Mcneil?

put in handzus instead of primeau and i'd take it

theoil 09-22-2003 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by creative giant
put in handzus instead of primeau and i'd take it

Not that I want Primeau either but can we PLEASE stop with the Handzus to Edmonton proposals. PLEASE

FlyerFire 09-22-2003 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by creative giant
put in handzus instead of primeau and i'd take it

if i were the Oil i would too.don't think Hitchcock will tho.what about if the Flys picked up most of salary?you can see my not wanting to deal zus,huh?i like primo and all but zus is better,IMO,younger and cheaper.

Ryno 09-22-2003 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebellionhellion2002
if i were the Oil i would too.don't think Hitchcock will tho.what about if the Flys picked up most of salary?you can see my not wanting to deal zus,huh?i like primo and all but zus is better,IMO,younger and cheaper.

Unless you're picking up ALL of the salary, Primeau stays in Philly.

$5 million dollars? Yuck.

Master Lok 09-22-2003 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theoil
Not that I want Primeau either but can we PLEASE stop with the Handzus to Edmonton proposals. PLEASE

Agreed, Handzus is a terrible deal for Comrie.


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