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-   -   News Article: NHL expansion draft would cause tough decisions (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1300175)

Sabretip 12-01-2012 11:23 AM

NHL expansion draft would cause tough decisions
 
Granted, it's 100% speculation and hypothetical projections based on remote odds of NHL expanding to Quebec City and Markham, Ont. but at a time where there's not much else besides CBA topics to debate, interesting nevertheless:

Quote:

In the Dec. 17 magazine edition of THN, we decided to use growing rumors of NHL expansion – to Quebec City and southern Ontario/Markham – to have a little fun in the form of an expansion draft. Long-time hockey men Jacques Demers and Gord Stellick served as GMs for Quebec and Markham, respectively, and selected a 24-man roster comprised of three goalies, eight defensemen and 13 forwards. The results are guaranteed to provoke passionate discussion.

To get a look at their expansion rosters, you’ll have to buy the issue. But in this column, we’ll look at the first part of the expansion draft process – deciding on protected lists for all 30 teams – which in and of itself serves as a great source of debate. That’s because we modelled those lists based on the requirements for the NHL’s 2000 expansion draft that stocked teams in Minnesota and Columbus.

Back then, the league’s 28 teams were presented with a choice: protect one goalie, five defensemen and nine forwards or protect two goalies, three defensemen and seven forwards. And that’s where the first tough calls had to be made. Here are five teams we believed would face some serious dilemmas and the choices we believe they would make (full protected rosters for all teams are below):
Quote:

Protected lists:

Buffalo Sabres (two goalies)
Forwards: Ennis, Gerbe, Hodgson, Ott, Pominville, Stafford, Vanek
Defensemen: Ehrhoff, Leopold, Myers
Goalies: Enroth, Miller
Quote:

BUFFALO: The Sabres were the only team we saw protecting two goalies, because (a) current starter Ryan Miller will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2014; and (b) backup Jhonas Enroth is just 24 and almost assuredly would have been one of the first (if not the first) netminders taken in an expansion draft. That meant leaving rugged veteran Robyn Regehr and puck-moving blueliner Andrej Sekera unprotected and taking a calculated gamble in exposing highly paid center Ville Leino.
http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...decisions.html

Thinking the Sabres would choose to protect a 32-year old pending UFA like Leopold over a 26-year old Sekera coming into his own seems ignorant on Proteau's part IMO.

THN didn't cover in the online or print edition which players may not be eligible in an expansion draft - I'd assume first-year players on ELC's (i.e. Foligno, McNabb) couldn't be selected and thus wouldn't need to be protected.

In the actual selections published in the current issue, the only Sabre claimed in Stellick's and Demers' selections was Regehr by the Toronto/Markham side - which is also odd if they had Sekera exposed as an option and even moreso when you look over the other defensemen that were taken by the two fantasy GMs.

FWIW, the print edition draft selections were:

1. Bernier, G (Tor)
2. Luongo, G (QC)
3. Franson, D (Tor)
4. Demers, D (QC)
5. Regehr, D (Tor)
6. Kulemin, F (QC)
7. Condra, F (Tor)
8. Peverly, F (QC)
9. Wellwood, F (Tor)
10. Beagle, F (QC)
11. Rinaldo, F (Tor)
12. O'Byrne, D (QC)
13. Lee, D (Tor)
14. Fiddler, F (QC)
15. Braun, D (Tor)
16. Russell, D (QC)
17. Penner, F (Tor)
18. Biron, G (QC)
19. Falk, D (Tor)
20. Bourque, F (QC)
21. Spaling, F (Tor)
22. Gagne, F (QC)
23. Nodl, F (Tor)
24. Horcoff, F (QC)
25. Bachman, G (Tor)
26. Coliacovo, D (QC)
27. Daugavins, F (Tor)
28. Bergeron, D (QC)
29. Schlemko, D (Tor)
30. Cleary, F (QC)
31. Skille, F (Tor)
32. Steckel, F (QC)
33. Bickell, F (Tor)
34. Paille, F (QC)
35. D. Miller, F (Tor)
36. Stajan, F (QC)
37. O'Brien, D (Tor)
38. Zidlicky, D (QC)
39. Halischuk, F (Tor)
40. Kaberle, D (QC)
41. Lapierre, F (Tor)
42. Carcillo, F (QC)
43. Beleskey, F (Tor)
44. Komisarek, D (QC)
45. Montador, D (Tor)
46. Reasoner, F (QC)
47. Irving, G (Tor)
48. Neuvirth, G (QC)

Along with a lot of questionable picks and sequences of such, the Toronto selections by Stellick add to cap hit of $27,573,000 while Demers' selections total $60,525,000.

All fodder to pass the time.....

Rammstein816 12-01-2012 12:25 PM

Stelleck's way below the cap floor. Interesting that the cap hit was such a huge difference. I'm not sure if I understand protecting Gerbe, but I guess if you don't have to protect either Foligno or Tropp, it makes sense. I wish you could protect more than 3 D, because, as you said, Sekera needs to be protected. With Leopold, Sulzer, and Regehr all being UFAs, it makes no sense to protect any of them.

palindrom 12-01-2012 07:32 PM

So in the opinion of "Long-time hockey men" Bernier is more valuable than Luongo

interesting.

HockeyH3aven 12-01-2012 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by palindrom (Post 56172177)
So in the opinion of "Long-time hockey men" Bernier is more valuable than Luongo

interesting.

Age plays a large factor here. His massive contract doesn't help either.

McTank 12-01-2012 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by palindrom (Post 56172177)
So in the opinion of "Long-time hockey men" Bernier is more valuable than Luongo

interesting.

I would agree with that

Zip15 12-01-2012 08:28 PM

I need more information about who'd be available. Is it only players on one-way deals? If so, that takes Hodgson, McNabb, Pysyk, Girgensons, et al. off the table. As of right now, I'd probably protect Enroth just because he's so low-cost; not so sure I'd do so after this year when he gets a new contract. But, assuming I had to decide next week:

Goaltenders: Miller, Enroth
Defensemen: Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff [though I still dislike the term of that deal, and would be tempted to exclude him if we had one more good defenseman on a one-way deal]
Forwards: Pominville, Vanek, Stafford, Ott, Ennis, Gerbe, Kaleta

Imlach a cup 12-01-2012 10:43 PM

Exposing Leino is risky? I'd fly him to the draft with a copy of his resume and beg someone to take his contract off our hands.

Proteau has really lost me during the lockout. His hockey pieces are filled with so many questionable statements that it feels like he should be with ESPN. His lockout pieces are just him crying about how awful the players have it.

No sir don't like it.

Jame 12-01-2012 11:28 PM

protecting Leopold over Sekera = WTF?

Woodhouse 12-02-2012 12:31 AM

Leaving Sekera unprotected would surprise me, but not getting drafted to either club would be even more surprising. Also, my memory is a little foggy on this thing called the NHL, so I would've preferred to see THN include unprotected lists as well.

Sabretip 12-02-2012 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jame (Post 56177357)
protecting Leopold over Sekera = WTF?

Ditto that. The only explanation I can come up with is that Leopold's name and resume in several NHL cities has garnered him more respect - even if unjustified - than Sekera, who is still in the "anonymous" category with most media members outside of Buffalo.

Dabs21Nike 12-02-2012 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zip15 (Post 56173597)
I need more information about who'd be available. Is it only players on one-way deals? If so, that takes Hodgson, McNabb, Pysyk, Girgensons, et al. off the table. As of right now, I'd probably protect Enroth just because he's so low-cost; not so sure I'd do so after this year when he gets a new contract. But, assuming I had to decide next week:

Goaltenders: Miller, Enroth
Defensemen: Myers, Sekera, Ehrhoff [though I still dislike the term of that deal, and would be tempted to exclude him if we had one more good defenseman on a one-way deal]
Forwards: Pominville, Vanek, Stafford, Ott, Ennis, Gerbe, Kaleta

Assuming you're right about 2 way deals, I think your list is pretty good. I'd have no problem losing Leino or Leopold. Both seem pretty easily replaceable.

If Hodgson needs to be protected, then he'd replace Gerbe. Surprisingly it doesn't seem like the Sabres would need to make too many hard decisions. It'd be interesting to see what other teams would have to give up. Those expansion teams don't look very competitive but I question their drafting if they don't take Sekera.

Sabretip 12-02-2012 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dabs21Nike (Post 56181169)
Those expansion teams don't look very competitive but I question their drafting if they don't take Sekera.

Alongside the predicted draft order, the THN article broke down the depth charts for each squad - which underlines even further how weak each team would be:

Toronto:
Penner-D.Miller-Condra
Bickell-Lapierre-Skille
E. Wellwood-Halischuk-Nodl
Spaling-Rinaldo-Beleskey
Daugavins

Regehr-Franson
Montador-Falk
Braun-O'Brien
Schlemko-Lee

Bernier
Bachman
Irving

Quebec City:
Gagne-Horcoff-Bourque
Kulemin-Peverly-Cleary
Paille-Stajan-Fiddler
Carcillo-Steckel-Beagle
Reasoner

Zidlicky-Kaberle
Colaiacovo-Bergeron
Russell-Komisarek
Demers-O'Byrne

Luongo
Biron
Neuvirth

Bosswally 12-02-2012 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabretip (Post 56181321)
Alongside the predicted draft order, the THN article broke down the depth charts for each squad - which underlines even further how weak each team would be:

Toronto:
Penner-D.Miller-Condra
Bickell-Lapierre-Skille
E. Wellwood-Halischuk-Nodl
Spaling-Rinaldo-Beleskey
Daugavins

Regehr-Franson
Montador-Falk
Braun-O'Brien
Schlemko-Lee

Bernier
Bachman
Irving

Quebec City:
Gagne-Horcoff-Bourque
Kulemin-Peverly-Cleary
Paille-Stajan-Fiddler
Carcillo-Steckel-Beagle
Reasoner

Zidlicky-Kaberle
Colaiacovo-Bergeron
Russell-Komisarek
Demers-O'Byrne

Luongo
Biron
Neuvirth

The Toronto team just looks embarrassing, the QC team on the other hand I don't think is all that bad, Luongo is still a top 5 goalie in the league in my opinion (and us more than anyone know how far a great goalie can carry a not very good team) they won't make the playoffs but I could seem them in 11-13th place, certainly not first year Ottawa bad like Toronto looks

Sabretip 12-03-2012 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bosswally (Post 56192945)
The Toronto team just looks embarrassing, the QC team on the other hand I don't think is all that bad

With the lineup he picked at a cap of $27M, Stellick must think it's better to tank the first season of existance in hopes of landing the # 1 pick. :laugh:

Zip15 12-03-2012 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabretip (Post 56216025)
With the lineup he picked at a cap of $27M, Stellick must think it's better to tank the first season of existance in hopes of landing the # 1 pick. :laugh:

Great plan. Wouldn't you rather have a franchise cornerstone like MacKinnon going forward--say nothing for the metric ****-ton of cap space they'd have to attract free agents--than competing for 8th-10th place with a bunch of veteran retreads? If I'm Toronto, I take my lumps for two seasons, get two elite players in the draft, and then jump headlong into the UFA market.

Sabretip 12-04-2012 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zip15 (Post 56223007)
Great plan. Wouldn't you rather have a franchise cornerstone like MacKinnon going forward--say nothing for the metric ****-ton of cap space they'd have to attract free agents--than competing for 8th-10th place with a bunch of veteran retreads? If I'm Toronto, I take my lumps for two seasons, get two elite players in the draft, and then jump headlong into the UFA market.

I can see taking that approach, when the "newness" or novelty of being new in town helps fuel marketing and fan appeal in spite of a losing record - but, with the Leafs being a fixture and mired in endless mediocrity, I'm not sure that an expansion team in the vicinity that ends up being a doormat will attract many fans in the Toronto region (other than maybe Leaf fans looking for cheaper tickets to see their own team play). But maybe that's why Stellick aimed for a low team cap - the need to make money in the first year won't be as crucial to cover the payroll.

By contrast, if the Quebec City team took the approach of tanking its first year to land the top pick, they have the cushion of the first-year love affair and the only team in town helping them sell seats while losing games.

DixonWard15 12-04-2012 04:17 PM

I feel bad for these writers, they are really scraping at the bottom of the barrel to find something to write about

fedfed 12-16-2012 02:42 PM

Caps protecting Schultz and Ward? Come on...

mgeise 12-18-2012 09:45 AM

In the last expansion draft, first and second year pros were both exempt from being selected.

I did a similar project a year or two ago to determine who an expansion team would likely have available to them, and the pickings were extremely slim. You have to remember that these drafts have been done in the offseason before the unrestricted free agency period starts, so pending UFA's do not need to be protected. That really dilutes the talent pool.

I remember Bernier and Neuvirth were my goalies and the forward and defensive corps were terrible. I think Brian Lee was the #1 defenseman...


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