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livewell68 12-09-2012 09:52 AM

Has Crosby peaked statistically?
 
The reason I decided to start this topic is in response to one of the threads in the Hockey section on the main forum. Posters were asked who will tear up the league once NHL play resumes and most are picking Crosby; some even making proclamations that he will be close to 150 Pts.

I feel people in the History section are bit more well rounded when it comes to hockey knowledge and the history of the game and I feel they will be more objective in regards to this.

I want to know if people think if Crosby has already hit his career high in points for a full season or does he get close to 130-150 Pts in a full season?

Discuss.

Mike Farkas 12-09-2012 09:59 AM

Static-producing linemates might hold him down a bit more than anything. He needs a player that can grow and think mentally with him. Not a ham n' egger that can bang home his dishes. If he gets one winger that can grow with him on a mental level, he can exceed his point totals (provided team and league circumstances are ripe). In the system right now, the Penguins have few of that variety. Hopes are for Beau Bennett, assuming James Neal remains with Evgeni Malkin.

Hobnobs 12-09-2012 10:05 AM

I think this is a science fiction question. There is no way of knowing how Crosby will perform next year or in ten years. there are probabillities tho... I think the probabillity of him peaking even higher is good if he can remain healthy. IF he already maxed out when still in his prime at 25 then thats bad news for Pens.

livewell68 12-09-2012 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobnobs (Post 56390807)
I think this is a science fiction question. There is no way of knowing how Crosby will perform next year or in ten years. there are probabillities tho... I think the probabillity of him peaking even higher is good if he can remain healthy. IF he already maxed out when still in his prime at 25 then thats bad news for Pens.

How is that bad news for the Penguins? Pretty much most NHL players, even the true greats usually peak statistically between the ages of 21 and 25. What I mean by this is that they continue to put up better numbers than most of the rest of the NHL but in terms of their own peak (in terms of raw numbers) they usually never hit that number again after the age of 25. It happened to Gretzky, Yzerman, to Sakic, to Forsberg it even happened to Selanne.

Take Mario Lemieux for instance, he scored 199 Pts as a 23 year old and although he had 2 more seasons with 160 and 161 Pts, he never even again came close to 199 Pts.

Jagr peaked at 23 with 149 Pts eventhough he won 4 more Art Ross trophies after that season and had 3 season of 120 + Pts.

Peaking statistically doesn't usually coincide with peaking physically.

Lemieux was a better player in 1992-93 for instance (bad back and all) than he was in 1988-89. Jagr was a better player in 1998-99 than he was in 1995-96.

Many think for instance that in 2009-10 Crosby was a better overall player than he was in is 2006-07 season.

What these players have in common is that they continued to improve their games and probably dominated their competition to an even larger extent considering the league itself and linemates they had but they never came close to their career highs ever again after the age of 23-25.

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livewell68 (Post 56391031)
How is that bad news for the Penguins? Pretty much most NHL players, even the true greats usually peak statistically between the ages of 21 and 25. What I mean by this is that they continue to put up better numbers than most of the rest of the NHL but in terms of their own peak (in terms of raw numbers) they usually never hit that number again after the age of 25. It happened to Gretzky, Yzerman, to Sakic, to Forsberg it even happened to Selanne.

Take Mario Lemieux for instance, he scored 199 Pts as a 23 year old and although he had 2 more seasons with 160 and 161 Pts, he never even again came close to 199 Pts.

Jagr peaked at 23 with 149 Pts eventhough he won 4 more Art Ross trophies after that season and had 3 season of 120 + Pts.

Peaking statistically doesn't usually coincide with peaking physically.

Lemieux was a better player in 1992-93 for instance (bad back and all) than he was in 1988-89. Jagr was a better player in 1998-99 than he was in 1995-96.

Many think for instance that in 2009-10 Crosby was a better overall player than he was in is 2006-07 season.

What these players have in common is that they continued to improve their games and probably dominated their competition to an ever large extent considering the league itself and linemates they had but they never came close to their career highs ever again after the age of 23-25.


That was in 96 and before the overall league drop off in scoring due to many defensive, strategy and goaltending reasons.

96 raw stats of 149 points compared to 99 when he had 127 looks like his peak was in 96 but when you adjust them it is 144 in 96 and 145 in 99.

League trends matter when comparing players seasons and talking about peak performance.

As for Crosby, health and line mates will be extremely important. It is unlikely that we are going to see any regression on the impact of defensive strategies and teams and goalies abilities to limit actual goal scoring.

Sids high for points came at 19 with 120 and goals in 10 with 51.

His PPG in the last 2 years (41 and 22 game samples) has been 1.61 and 1.68 so he has the skill and is still young enough to have a 50 goal 90 assist type of season.

It will really come down to health and a bit of luck IMO but it's very possible.

jack mullet 12-09-2012 11:27 AM

since this season, if it starts, will be short, we will have to wait until the next full season to really determine this question. at the start of the 2013-2014 season Crosby will still only be 25 years old. i really don't see him scoring higher than the 120 points he scored in 06-07, unless they sign an all star winger capable of 45+ goals. really, this is all Crosby can hope for (assists), as i highly doubt he will ever be a 50 goal scorer in this league again.

we shall see, the biggest question is, can he stay healthy and play a full season

Darth Yoda 12-09-2012 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livewell68 (Post 56391031)
How is that bad news for the Penguins? Pretty much most NHL players, even the true greats usually peak statistically between the ages of 21 and 25. What I mean by this is that they continue to put up better numbers than most of the rest of the NHL but in terms of their own peak (in terms of raw numbers) they usually never hit that number again after the age of 25. It happened to Gretzky, Yzerman, to Sakic, to Forsberg it even happened to Selanne.

Take Mario Lemieux for instance, he scored 199 Pts as a 23 year old and although he had 2 more seasons with 160 and 161 Pts, he never even again came close to 199 Pts.

Jagr peaked at 23 with 149 Pts eventhough he won 4 more Art Ross trophies after that season and had 3 season of 120 + Pts.

Peaking statistically doesn't usually coincide with peaking physically.

Lemieux was a better player in 1992-93 for instance (bad back and all) than he was in 1988-89. Jagr was a better player in 1998-99 than he was in 1995-96.

Many think for instance that in 2009-10 Crosby was a better overall player than he was in is 2006-07 season.

What these players have in common is that they continued to improve their games and probably dominated their competition to an even larger extent considering the league itself and linemates they had but they never came close to their career highs ever again after the age of 23-25.

You seem to be talking against yourself more then one time in this post. As someone allready has pointed out Jagr did score his 149 points in 95-96 not only becouse of playing in a higher scoring league, but also becouse of who he was playing with.
Gretzky, Yzerman, Selanne, Lemieux all scored their statistical peaks in raw numbers in a higher scoring league. There is nothing to say a player cant progress after the age of 25 through good training.

Take a look at Crosby and his averages the last two seasons, it's much higher than in any of his seasons before and would suggest a pretty dominant season if he had played close to 82 games. I mean, before the first concussion he was pretty exceptional that season.

LeBlondeDemon10 12-09-2012 11:53 AM

There is no way of knowing the impact multiple concussions have had on his physical and mental abilities until we see him play over a uninterrupted length of time. History has shown that the accumulation of serious injuries over a short period of time has had significant effects on performance.

reckoning 12-09-2012 12:29 PM

Players usually hit their offensive peak at an earlier age than most of us would like to believe. 23 seems to be the average, though the drop is very small from 24-27. After that it becomes more noticeable.

Everybody's different though. For example, a player who prior to the NHL played in Europe or the NCAA (with the shorter seasons) tend to have less physical wear and tear than somebody who played 4 long years in the CHL, and therefore may have a later peak.

Czech Your Math 12-09-2012 12:53 PM

I don't think he's necessarily peaked yet, at least not on a full season, adjusted basis. As far as raw (actual) points in a season, or on an PPG basis, it's very possible he's peaked. I think he has another ~3 seasons after this one to hit his peak.

Hobnobs 12-09-2012 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 (Post 56391465)
That was in 96 and before the overall league drop off in scoring due to many defensive, strategy and goaltending reasons.

96 raw stats of 149 points compared to 99 when he had 127 looks like his peak was in 96 but when you adjust them it is 144 in 96 and 145 in 99.

League trends matter when comparing players seasons and talking about peak performance.

As for Crosby, health and line mates will be extremely important. It is unlikely that we are going to see any regression on the impact of defensive strategies and teams and goalies abilities to limit actual goal scoring.

Sids high for points came at 19 with 120 and goals in 10 with 51.

His PPG in the last 2 years (41 and 22 game samples) has been 1.61 and 1.68 so he has the skill and is still young enough to have a 50 goal 90 assist type of season.

It will really come down to health and a bit of luck IMO but it's very possible.

This is dribble as you dont even try to understand the difference between eras. So now, explain Gordie Howe. :)

Mario scored 199 before 25 but he was also didnt play a full season after that, neither did Trottier for example.

quoipourquoi 12-09-2012 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livewell68 (Post 56391031)
Pretty much most NHL players, even the true greats usually peak statistically between the ages of 21 and 25. It happened to Gretzky, Yzerman, to Sakic, to Forsberg it even happened to Selanne.

Um... Joe Sakic peaked at 31. Peter Forsberg at 29. Teemu Selanne at 28.

Fred Taylor 12-09-2012 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack mullet (Post 56392189)
since this season, if it starts, will be short, we will have to wait until the next full season to really determine this question. at the start of the 2013-2014 season Crosby will still only be 25 years old. i really don't see him scoring higher than the 120 points he scored in 06-07, unless they sign an all star winger capable of 45+ goals. really, this is all Crosby can hope for (assists), as i highly doubt he will ever be a 50 goal scorer in this league again.

we shall see, the biggest question is, can he stay healthy and play a full season

Crosby will be 26 at the start of next season. He's already 25 and his birthday is in August. That said, I don't even think we've seen the best of him yet, assuming he doesn't get injured.

livewell68 12-09-2012 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quoipourquoi (Post 56396523)
Um... Joe Sakic peaked at 31. Peter Forsberg at 29. Teemu Selanne at 28.

Humm?

Playing your best is different than peaking at your highest. Sakic got 120 Pts at age 1995-96. Forsberg had his career in 1995-96 as well.

Selanne never got higher than 110 Pts after 1992-93. That to means they peaked statistically when they were younger.

livewell68 12-09-2012 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Yoda (Post 56392549)
You seem to be talking against yourself more then one time in this post. As someone allready has pointed out Jagr did score his 149 points in 95-96 not only becouse of playing in a higher scoring league, but also becouse of who he was playing with.
Gretzky, Yzerman, Selanne, Lemieux all scored their statistical peaks in raw numbers in a higher scoring league. There is nothing to say a player cant progress after the age of 25 through good training.

Take a look at Crosby and his averages the last two seasons, it's much higher than in any of his seasons before and would suggest a pretty dominant season if he had played close to 82 games. I mean, before the first concussion he was pretty exceptional that season.

The league is not getting any wider in scoring. As for Crosby's averages being higher in the last 2 season, he played a total of what 67 games or whatever it is?

If he had done that over an entire season of even maintained that pace in the same season over 67 games then I would say that he has hit a new level.

That's not the case though. It's much easier to have 1.65 PPG in stretches of 20 and 40 games but to do that over the course of a season is as hard as it gets. As displayed in the " By the Numbers" section by CzechyourMath, Crosby stretches aren't even close to being the best by players not named Lemieux or Gretzky.

Crosby is not getting any younger.

As for the linemates argument, it's a moot point. Crosby defenders will always claim how Crosby has terrible linemates, great players elevate the play of their linemates. Crosby benefits from having Malkin as the 1b option since opposing teams can't focus their attention just on Crosby and this Crosby a bit more room on the ice. Just in comparison, Jagr (outside of the Lemieux years) never once had that novelty to play with. Before you jump at Francis, I say that Francis was never going to scare opponents in thinking he was going to pot a hattrick or 5 point game against them.

That shouldn't be an excuse. Jagr had some seasons in which he had worse linemates (1998-99, 1999-00 and 2005-06) being great examples of this in which he put up amazing numbers.

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckoning (Post 56393865)
Players usually hit their offensive peak at an earlier age than most of us would like to believe. 23 seems to be the average, though the drop is very small from 24-27. After that it becomes more noticeable.

Everybody's different though. For example, a player who prior to the NHL played in Europe or the NCAA (with the shorter seasons) tend to have less physical wear and tear than somebody who played 4 long years in the CHL, and therefore may have a later peak.

Is there actually any info to back this up or is it a recent trend, ie Cap reflective in part.

I just had a quick look at some of the top scorers of all time and there doesn't seem to be a lot of evidence to support this.

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobnobs (Post 56394919)
This is dribble as you dont even try to understand the difference between eras. So now, explain Gordie Howe. :)

Mario scored 199 before 25 but he was also didn't play a full season after that, neither did Trottier for example.

It's not dribble at all, I was replying to a specific example and now you bring up 2 other guys.

I had a quick look at the top scorers of all time and there is very little evidence to support any trend that 23 is the peak year.

If most players peak was at 23 we would find that to be true but it just isn't.

Delvecchio, who played with Howe, peaked in his late 20's, so did the Moose, Forsberg, Sakic, Francis, Dionne and many others

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livewell68 (Post 56397535)
Humm?

Playing your best is different than peaking at your highest. Sakic got 120 Pts at age 1995-96. Forsberg had his career in 1995-96 as well.

Selanne never got higher than 110 Pts after 1992-93. That to means they peaked statistically when they were younger.

Sakic got 120 at age 26 and 118 at age 31.

Adjusted those work out to be 115 (26) and 128 (31).

Forsberg age 22 has 116 raw (112) and at age 29 106 raw (118).

Rhiessan71 12-09-2012 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 (Post 56398913)
Sakic got 120 at age 26 and 118 at age 31.

Adjusted those work out to be 115 (26) and 128 (31).

Forsberg age 22 has 116 raw (112) and at age 29 106 raw (118).

Gotta stop using DPE numbers.
You can't put a lot of stock into them from the DPE. Adjusted stats are not close to perfect as it is but for showing the value of the DPE, there is something seriously wrong with them.

Use players from other times or something, just stay away from that era.

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by livewell68 (Post 56397933)
The league is not getting any wider in scoring. As for Crosby's averages being higher in the last 2 season, he played a total of what 67 games or whatever it is?

If he had done that over an entire season of even maintained that pace in the same season over 67 games then I would say that he has hit a new level.

That's not the case though. It's much easier to have 1.65 PPG in stretches of 20 and 40 games but to do that over the course of a season is as hard as it gets. As displayed in the " By the Numbers" section by CzechyourMath, Crosby stretches aren't even close to being the best by players not named Lemieux or Gretzky.

Crosby is not getting any younger.

As for the linemates argument, it's a moot point. Crosby defenders will always claim how Crosby has terrible linemates, great players elevate the play of their linemates. Crosby benefits from having Malkin as the 1b option since opposing teams can't focus their attention just on Crosby and this Crosby a bit more room on the ice. Just in comparison, Jagr (outside of the Lemieux years) never once had that novelty to play with. Before you jump at Francis, I say that Francis was never going to scare opponents in thinking he was going to pot a hattrick or 5 point game against them.

That shouldn't be an excuse. Jagr had some seasons in which he had worse linemates (1998-99, 1999-00 and 2005-06) being great examples of this in which he put up amazing numbers.

Francis was a pretty use full offensive player before he ever played with the Pens.

Sure Sid has Malkin as 1b but man his line mates are horrific.

Sid's pace in 11, despite his line mates, and the fact it was 2011 was simply flat out amazing, your effort to downplay it is embarrassing to say the least.

Let's take a closer look at that team.

Sid leads the team in scoring despite playing in exactly half of the teams games with 41.

Letang's (age 23) 50 points in 82 games is 16 behind Sid.

Kunitz (Crosby's line mate) has 48 in 66 games.

Malkin is out close to half the year.

There is little doubt that if Sid doesn't get concussed that his season would ahve been spectacular in historical terms and absolute ones as well.

Rhiessan71 12-09-2012 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 (Post 56399337)
Francis was a pretty use full offensive player before he ever played with the Pens.

Sure Sid has Malkin as 1b but man his line mates are horrific.

Sid's pace in 11, despite his line mates, and the fact it was 2011 was simply flat out amazing, your effort to downplay it is embarrassing to say the least.

Let's take a closer look at that team.

Sid leads the team in scoring despite playing in exactly half of the teams games with 41.

Letang's (age 23) 50 points in 82 games is 16 behind Sid.

Kunitz (Crosby's line mate) has 48 in 66 games.

Malkin is out close to half the year.

There is little doubt that if Sid doesn't get concussed that his season would ahve been spectacular in historical terms and absolute ones as well.

It's still only a half season though which according to you in both past Lemeiux '01 arguments and as recently as a post by you about Coffey and I quote "I only give credit for what players did do, not what they could do" seems like you're jumping the gun a bit and being just a tad hypocritical, no?

Big Phil 12-09-2012 03:53 PM

Its hard to say. He'll be 26 at the start of the 2013-'14 season. The NHL and the NHLPA are knobs, but even they can't screw up the season not starting on time - next year.

I think he never played better than 2009-'10 and of course the first half of the 2010-'11 season. He technically peaked at 120 points, but I get the feeling this won't be his career high. He was on pace for 132 points in 2011 until he got hurt. It's really hard to say because he has had a Lindrosesque type of career where you can't trust him putting together a full season (4 out of 7 seasons have been drastically cut short).

With a healthy 80 or so games then who knows, he may just get 120. There is just so much uncertainty around the NHL and Crosby himself. When do they drop the puck again? Will he get hurt? Can he comeback as the same player from before despite losing the better part of three full seasons? Lots of questions and no one knows. He is losing out on a full season of his prime right now, you can never get that back and he isn't getting any younger.

Hardyvan123 12-09-2012 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 (Post 56399841)
It's still only a half season though which according to you in both past Lemeiux '01 arguments and as recently as a post by you about Coffey and I quote "I only give credit for what players did do, not what they could do" seems like you're jumping the gun a bit and being just a tad hypocritical, no?

Sure but I was responding mainly to livewells assertion that team mates don't matter.

It's still pretty amazing that Sid led the team in scoring by 16 points but to be fair, two guys that Sid wouldn't play with alot, Malkin and stall probably would ahve topped 66 points had they been healthy so it's a bit of a perfect storm, kinda like when Bure led Florida in scoring when a couple of guys got traded.

We have been over Mario in 01 and I'm pretty consistent in going back to his last full season at 31 where he scored at a lower PPG pace over 74 games and the year after where the same thing happened again.

Given Sids seasons before and after 11 and his age it's an entirely different context and set of circumstances than Mario's 01 run.

One of the major differences, and I'm surprised you didn't bring this up as it is your current flavor of the day, is PP versus ES scoring.

Mario ES in 01 was 43-18-25-43
Sid ES in 11 was 41-21-25-46

On the PP Mario was 16-16-32, Sid was 10-9-19

Of course Mario had the better PP unit as well, not sure who his linemates where in that year though.

It is really strange that you didn't bring this up though.:sarcasm:

Rhiessan71 12-09-2012 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 (Post 56401335)
Sure but I was responding mainly to livewells assertion that team mates don't matter.

It's still pretty amazing that Sid led the team in scoring by 16 points but to be fair, two guys that Sid wouldn't play with alot, Malkin and stall probably would ahve topped 66 points had they been healthy so it's a bit of a perfect storm, kinda like when Bure led Florida in scoring when a couple of guys got traded.

We have been over Mario in 01 and I'm pretty consistent in going back to his last full season at 31 where he scored at a lower PPG pace over 74 games and the year after where the same thing happened again.

Given Sids seasons before and after 11 and his age it's an entirely different context and set of circumstances than Mario's 01 run.

One of the major differences, and I'm surprised you didn't bring this up as it is your current flavor of the day, is PP versus ES scoring.

Mario ES in 01 was 43-18-25-43
Sid ES in 11 was 41-21-25-46

On the PP Mario was 16-16-32, Sid was 10-9-19

Of course Mario had the better PP unit as well, not sure who his linemates where in that year though.

It is really strange that you didn't bring this up though.:sarcasm:

ES scoring is not a "flavour of the month" for me, sorry but it has always been a big factor for me.

And yes I know Sid sits at about 60% of his points at ES but again, that's beside the point.
The point is that Sid has to maintain the high pace he was on for more than just 63 games out of 164.
The biggest difference with Mario is that he DID score at a high rate and much higher previously. He was not hitting a new level of production like Crosby.
Mario more than earned the benefit of the doubt at that level, Crosby has NOT.

Czech Your Math 12-09-2012 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 (Post 56401335)
Given Sids seasons before and after 11 and his age it's an entirely different context and set of circumstances than Mario's 01 run.

One of the major differences, and I'm surprised you didn't bring this up as it is your current flavor of the day, is PP versus ES scoring.

Mario ES in 01 was 43-18-25-43
Sid ES in 11 was 41-21-25-46

On the PP Mario was 16-16-32, Sid was 10-9-19

Of course Mario had the better PP unit as well, not sure who his linemates where in that year though.

It is really strange that you didn't bring this up though.:sarcasm:

Mario played with Jagr in '01, the only time besides '97 that they steadily played together at ES. He had 3.5 seasons off before that and he never came close to matching that pace again, only playing more than 26 games once after that.

I expect to see Crosby's best in his next 2-3 seasons.

First, 25-28 is a very common age to peak. Some peak earlier, but these are often players who rely heavily on goal scoring and/or speed. Crosby relied more on speed in his first 3 seasons, but after his '08 injury, he has rounded out his game some. He has also become a better goal scorer, but would still be considered more of a playmaker or at least balanced. Some peak later, but these are more the exception among superstar forwards. Selanne's peak seasons were at ages 25-28, and he won the Rocket at 22, but then injuries hampered him. Sakic had his best season at 31, but he had a long prime that started much earlier. Even Espo's prime started in his mid-20s, and it could be argued that in terms of overall effectiveness, he peaked from ~26-30. Forsberg's best season was at 29, but that was after a season off and his prime was 22-30. It's just rare for a player to really hit another level past their mid-20s, unless there's a major change in circumstance, such as Espo or Messier. Speedsters like Bure and Kariya had their best seasons a year or two after missing most of the season.

Second, he will have a lot of rest. He has 69 games, including playoffs, in more than 2.5 years and counting. So it wouldn't surprise me if he peaked in his next couple seasons, especially a shortened season and his first full season. After that, he will face more wear and tear, and start to enter his late 20s. It will be harder to improve a lot from that point, although maybe he gets a better winger or the league changes/enforces the rules and creates a better scoring environment (which wouldn't make him better, but increase his totals). We've seen what a big factor rest has been in achieving peak seasons: Forsberg, Bure, Kariya... and Lindros had his best season in a shortened season.

Because Crosby does rely some on speed, and entered his prime early, and has had trouble with injuries, and will have the most rest he will have (unless injuries plague him further)... I really have to believe that it's very likely he won't get substantially better than he will be in his next couple of seasons.


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