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-   -   Streaky players or the dangers of "on a pace for..." (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1306071)

beauchamp 12-10-2012 01:41 PM

Streaky players or the dangers of "on a pace for..."
 
Some players are historically streaky and it's dangerous to extrapolate from these streaks.

One player jump to mind, because his streaks almost always came at the beginning of the season. Why? If anyone has an explanation, feel free to post it.

The player? Brian Savage (Montreal, Phoenix, St. Louis and Philadelphia).

His numbers per month over his career, goals only, per 82 games:

October: 41

November: 25

December: 15

January: 28

February: 19

March: 15

April + May (1994-95 shortened season): 26

Playoffs: 6

Any present-day player with such a strange pattern?

domdo345 12-10-2012 01:50 PM

Probably not as streaky but Plekanec for the last 2 seasons has had a great beginning only to slow down as the season went on.

Darth Yoda 12-10-2012 02:07 PM

Pominville had real bursts in the second half of the season but last year that was'nt the case.

On a sidenote, i remember Brian Savage one time leading the NHL in scoring after about 15 games. Totally disapeared after that.

Noob616 12-10-2012 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by domdo345 (Post 56425367)
Probably not as streaky but Plekanec for the last 2 seasons has had a great beginning only to slow down as the season went on.

That's less to do with him being streaky IMO and more to do with him playing against the best opposition lines for 20 minutes a night game in game out (and anchoring the PK). Now that Eller is developing into a better two way center, we'll be able to shift a bit of that responsibility his way, and Pleky should be able to stay fresh longer.

beauchamp 12-10-2012 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Yoda (Post 56426251)
Pominville had real bursts in the second half of the season but last year that was'nt the case.

On a sidenote, i remember Brian Savage one time leading the NHL in scoring after about 15 games. Totally disapeared after that.

Pomminville seems remarkably constant from month to month:

Goals per 82 games:

October: 33

November: 21

December: 22

January: 28

February: 29

March: 30

April: 24

Playoffs: 22

beauchamp 12-10-2012 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by domdo345 (Post 56425367)
Probably not as streaky but Plekanec for the last 2 seasons has had a great beginning only to slow down as the season went on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Noob616 (Post 56426495)
That's less to do with him being streaky IMO and more to do with him playing against the best opposition lines for 20 minutes a night game in game out (and anchoring the PK). Now that Eller is developing into a better two way center, we'll be able to shift a bit of that responsibility his way, and Pleky should be able to stay fresh longer.

But in terms of goals, Plekanec appears to be more of a second-half player:

Goals per 82 games:

October: 18

November: 18

December: 16

January: 27

February: 30

March: 23

April: 12

Playoffs: 17

The April numbers are suspect because of the lack of data (only 33 games).

Frankie Spankie 12-10-2012 02:28 PM

Hasn't Kopitar been amongst the top 3 for points after the first two months in the past couple of seasons only to drop in the months following?

sunnyvale420 12-10-2012 02:39 PM

Any young player looking to break out does this. They spend all summer in the gym with suppys getting as strong as possible. Then 2 months in theyve lost the weight and struggle to keep up with the season

The Red Line 12-10-2012 03:24 PM

I don't have the numbers, but this thread screams Johan Franzen.

YogiCanucks 12-10-2012 03:26 PM

Watch some budding second tier prospect score 20 goals in a 28 game season.

nmbr_24 12-10-2012 03:26 PM

I think Phil Kessel was on pace to score over 50 goals for 4 straight seasons but he slowed way down at some point in the season. I remember a few "can Kessel score 60" threads.

Stansfield* 12-10-2012 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nmbr_24 (Post 56429691)
I think Phil Kessel was on pace to score over 50 goals for 4 straight seasons but he slowed way down at some point in the season. I remember a few "can Kessel score 60" threads.

Last season yeah, but in his first season with the Leafs he missed the first 12 games. But he is very streaky.

InfinityIggy 12-10-2012 03:41 PM

Iginla has the reverse issue of most of the players mentioned. Starts out slow and turns into a one man wrecking crew by the end of the season. Very odd.

sunnyvale420 12-10-2012 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InfinityIggy (Post 56430131)
Iginla has the reverse issue of most of the players mentioned. Starts out slow and turns into a one man wrecking crew by the end of the season. Very odd.

Eric Staal has done this as well in the last few years. Seemingly as soon as the teams been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs

beauchamp 12-10-2012 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nmbr_24 (Post 56429691)
I think Phil Kessel was on pace to score over 50 goals for 4 straight seasons but he slowed way down at some point in the season. I remember a few "can Kessel score 60" threads.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stansfield (Post 56430035)
Last season yeah, but in his first season with the Leafs he missed the first 12 games. But he is very streaky.

nmbr_24 is right. Kessel's goals (82 games) per month:

October: 48

November: 31

December: 31

January: 23

February: 24

March: 26

April: 34 (only 22 games so the number could change rapidly)

Playoffs: 49 (only 15 games so the number could change rapidly)

VinnyC 12-10-2012 05:04 PM

I'd imagine Luongo's SV% in October is around .900. I don't recall him ever having a good start to the season, at least not as a Canuck.

KA BLAMO 12-10-2012 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VinnyC (Post 56432365)
I'd imagine Luongo's SV% in October is around .900. I don't recall him ever having a good start to the season, at least not as a Canuck.

Same with Kiprusoff.

iamitter 12-10-2012 06:04 PM

This might be more significant in a shorter season. Less time for players who start hot to cool down and less time for players who heat up later to catch up.

Scottrockztheworld* 12-10-2012 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VinnyC (Post 56432365)
I'd imagine Luongo's SV% in October is around .900. I don't recall him ever having a good start to the season, at least not as a Canuck.

Those have more to do with AV IMO

beauchamp 12-10-2012 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VinnyC (Post 56432365)
I'd imagine Luongo's SV% in October is around .900. I don't recall him ever having a good start to the season, at least not as a Canuck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ebolarama (Post 56432551)
Same with Kiprusoff.

More true for Kiprusoff

Luongo by month:

October .913
November .916
December .923
January .922
February .924
March .920
April .903
Playoffs .916

Kiprusoff

October .900
November .915
December .915
January .917
February .921
March .912
April .922
Playoffs .921

PALE PWNR 12-10-2012 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beauchamp (Post 56424823)
Some players are historically streaky and it's dangerous to extrapolate from these streaks.

One player jump to mind, because his streaks almost always came at the beginning of the season. Why? If anyone has an explanation, feel free to post it.

The player? Brian Savage (Montreal, Phoenix, St. Louis and Philadelphia).

His numbers per month over his career, goals only, per 82 games:

October: 41

November: 25

December: 15

January: 28

February: 19

March: 15

April + May (1994-95 shortened season): 26

Playoffs: 6

Any present-day player with such a strange pattern?

Ask Mr. Savage himself http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/member.php?u=178021

NyQuil 12-10-2012 10:53 PM

From the man himself:

Quote:

Originally Posted by savey49 (Post 55545707)
Not sure why October was my month. Seemed like I got injured many times in November or December. October was fun though!!!


revolverjgw 12-10-2012 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beauchamp (Post 56432281)
Playoffs: 49 (only 15 games so the number could change rapidly)

I'm going to not make a Leafs joke here

I am a good person

eklunds source 12-10-2012 11:07 PM

It might occasionally be interesting but really, looking at "just November" of a players career is no different than looking at "just Tuesdays" or "Friday away games when using 3rd jerseys". I wouldn't put too much (any) meaning into the data..

tsujimoto74 12-10-2012 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InfinityIggy (Post 56430131)
Iginla has the reverse issue of most of the players mentioned. Starts out slow and turns into a one man wrecking crew by the end of the season. Very odd.

I had him on my fantasy team last year and hated myself for picking him until probably December. :laugh:


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