2013 mock draft (Lottery)
Guess I might as well just for fun so I can look back at this after WJC and see how much my opinion changes. used the 2013 draft lotto simulator. No re-rolls. If there were any first round pick trades I didn't remember any of them and I included none of them. Just assume that the team who's pick you own is your team instead.
Aw come on...of all the teams to win it's Detroit? This would bum me out in real life a lot. I was really looking forward to the end of the dynasty. Not saying Mackinnon is a generational talent who will turn completely plug the hole but he's got superstar potential. Detroit might be one of the few teams who would hesitate to grab Mack and consider Barkov. They've had excellent success with Europeans in the past and Barkov plays a better defensive game than Mack and might even fit Detroit's game style better, but Detroit would eventually take who is rightfully the BPA.
I know this is a pretty vanilla pick in that it's a no-brainer and it's not very original but I don't think Tampa would be able to pass this guy up. He's got the size, the shot, the skating, the physicality...he's the total package. Jones, Hedman, and Koekkoek should be a good top 3 D in the future that would give them the chance to seriously compete down the line. Would also think Tampa would give Barkov a serious look here. Having Stamkos and Barkov pivoting your top 6 would be absolutely incredible, but Jones is a can't miss defenseman. I truly think the kid could've gone first overall last year. Nothing against Yakupov as he's a great player, but Jones is an unbelieveable prospect.
This pick is going to be a god-send for the woe-stricken Blue Jackets and their fans. They have their first overall stolen from them. They lose the face of their franchise. They don't get a season to watch. The All-Star game is all but lost. Really, only Phoenix might have it worse and it's looking like the Yotes are probably going to stay. Barkov is an absolutely money pick. First overall talent if you ask me. He's big. He can play D. He can forecheck like a beast. He can dish the puck as well as he can snipe it. I mean when was the last time a 17 year old was two points shy of a point per game in men's professional league? With Jack Johnson, Ryan Johansen, Anisimov, Murray, and Barkov, the Columbus Blue Jackets would be heading in the right direction.
Lol this one isn't fair either. With that roster and that prospect pipeline. So question...what's better than having Jonathan Toews on your team? Having two Jonathan Toews' on your team. It's a comparison that has been following since last year when he showed up on the pre-draft radar, and from what I've seen it isn't an unfair comparison at all. In fact it's pretty damn accurate. Sharp-Toews-Kane Teravainen-Monahan-Saad isn't even going to be fair. I mean, the Hawks are my third team so I certainly won't MIND, but it's gonna make it hard to watch them compete with the Ducks and Jets (assuming they move to the Western Conference). I can't think of a guy that Chicago would consider a better pick at this point. MAYBE Pulock or Ristolainen...just maybe. They've focused on forwards quite a bit the last few drafts. Still say they go with Sean
Looking at their defensive pipeline....I almost wanted to say that Calgary would pick up a defender because that prospective blueline is pretty brutal. Then I wanted to say a certain center, but in the top 5 you absolutely go BPA especially in a draft like this and Drouin is absolutely something special. I know Calgary could use a center better than Max Reinhart which I guess would be good because Drouin CAN play center. But yeah. He's the BPA here. You could argue that he was the BPA at #4 too. The kid is absolutely demolishing the QMJHL right now. What is it like 40 some points in like 28 games? Whatever it is (too lazy to check right now) the PPG is better than Mackinnon's, so no "he's riding Mackinnon's coat-tails" excuses. Also, I'm pretty sure picking this guy would make Flames-Habs games fun.
Well thank god we managed to score a top 6 pick cause otherwise Detroit picking first would be an impossible pill to swallow. Big fun picking Lindholm 6th overall...AGAIN. Only this time we aren't gonna have a collective "LINDHOLM???" after Murray announces the pick this time we'll be replacing confusion with excited jubilation. Still have my fingers crossed that we score a third-5th overall pick to get a shot at Jones, Barkov, Monahan but Lindholm is still an elite quality player. Gets a lot of Nicklas Backstrom comparisons. I'm going to have to hold off on believing that till I see it, but it can't be a bad thing to get that kind of praise. From what I hear, he's got great physicality, great offensive instincts...he's just a great prospect. It speaks to the talent of this draft that a guy like Lindholm would even be here at 6 (and the guys that will follow strengthen that claim). The Ducks should be pretty set up front if this manages to happen. Palmieri-Getzlaf-Perry/Ryan-Lindholm-Etem/Karlsson-Holland-Rakell/Beleskey-Bonino-Smith Pelly...fun times. Plus it should be fun to here Hayward mess up which Lindholm he's talking about.
Well the Flyers are certainly stacked offensively. Never draft by need but at this point I'd say their offensive corps is so saturated with top end talent, an exception can be made here. They need help defensively. Badly. To be frank, my highest rated defenseman not named Jones is Pulock. But it's not offense from the back end that's the problem. It's the blueline leaving Bryz out to dry and...arguably Bryz daydreaming about the universe. They lose games because they let in more goals than they score, I know, what a concept right? Ristolainen will give Philadelphia size and dependability in the defensive zone. Pulock is the best defenseman available, but Rasmus is close enough that an exception can be made here. They wanted Weber this offseason, I can't guarantee he'll be Weber good, but even if he turns out to be a Weber-lite, that's a real cheap alternative. Some Philly fans aren't going to like it, but I'd count them lucky to be able to draft this kid.
Oh did you want a potential first line center who can score and skate like the wind? Well good thing this draft is so stacked right? I know Leafs fans are drooling at the thought of possibly drafting Monahan or Barkov as far as first line center options go, and they aren't wrong to do so. They're bigger and better defensively than Shinkaruk, they're the textbook Brian Burke centers. There's no doubt they'd fit into Toronto under Carlyle better, but you take what you can get, and if this is the getting, the getting is good for the Morgan Rielly follow up pick. There's a lot to like about Shinkaruk. To me you can tell he picked up a lot from Emerson Etem, but Hunter is Etem if Etem had a more complete game. He's speedy, he's got an accurate shot, his vision in the offensive zone is terrific. Honestly as far as hockey talent goes, he isn't far from the other top centers, what separates them is the size.
The slide stops here for this year's big name pure OFD. Minnesota didn't pick Fowler in 2010 because they wanted Granlund, can't say for sure yet if that was the right choice but they certainly could've done worse (McIlrath/Campbell...though at least Campbell has a shot at a starter role...maybe). Now, with the same draft position they have the chance to add a player with a very similar skill-set. I mean forget that he's the clear BPA here, that much is obvious, but try to imagine that blueline now. Suter, Dumba, Pulock, Brodin assuming Dumba can fit into the NHL and excel, that top 4 is filthy. Could see them MAYBE try to grab a winger, but in my mind the next best winger is a class below Pulock value wise.
There's a couple forwards I can see them taking instead but Nurse is a dynamite pick for a team that just lost a stud defenseman like Ryan Suter. Nurse takes after Weber more than he does Suter, but that's fine. What's not to like about an 18 year old that's 6'4 and 180 pounds? He's got great physicality, excellent positioning, grit, and from the little I've seen he does play with a lot of heart. It's debatable whether or not Zadorov would be the right pick here or Nurse, maybe even Hagg but from the little I've seen of Nurse vs Zadorov my pick here would be Nurse. I'd say Nicushkin has the talent to give them a solid center, but after Radulov (and Kostitsyn's anti-American whining back in mother russia) I'm not so sure Nashville trusts Russians much these days, and I'm not so convinced Nicushkin is BPA here, or even down the line.
Looking at this year's D crop, to be honest, I don't think it's much weaker than 2012's and 2012 was defined by high end defensive prospects. I've seen Zadorov twice now and I'm very impressed with him. He positions himself well, he can throw his body but he doesn't utilize it quite as much as I'd like and he's got plenty to use measuring in at 6'5 230 pounds. He's pretty mobile but won't blow you away with his skating. Pretty good vision and passing as well. I think he'd be the perfect complimentary player for Ryan Murphy.
Not quite playing to his full potential at this point, but he's pretty easily the BPA here and he'd be a very good fit in Phoenix. Lazar strikes me as a real warrior type player who can probably end up being a good leader figure just by the fact that he'd be leading by example. He fights hard every shift, battles for every lose puck, does what he can to drive to the net on offense. He plays a great two way game as well and these are all qualities that Phoenix's management will love, and he'll be a great addition to their center depth. To be honest, he's basically a less offensively gifted version of Sean Monahan. I think the hockey world would absolutely drool if they were to take Hagg or Morrissey to add to that already filthy defense. I mean...Yandle, OEL, Gormley, Rundblad, Murphy? But still it's best that they go BPA here and with Hanzal as the top center on the depth chart, it's a good think that it's Lazar available here.
13.) New York Islanders
Weird not seeing them in the top 10 huh? Well they're still gonna get top 10 quality here. Erne is another in a long line of terrific QMJHL scorers this year (this has gotta be their strongest year in a long time). If Erne can play up to his potential, he'll easily make up for the loss of PA Parenteau down the road. And there's a pretty good chance he probably will. Not exactly known for his two way play to be quite honest but that's fine the Isles appear to be drafting to mold a team focused on high intensity, high skill offense. Erne fits into that role pretty well. Quebec is personally a fun team for me to watch this year with Erne, Grigorenko, and Duclair all doing very well.
This can either yield a big pay-out for the Stars or it can totally blow up in their faces. Nicushkin's a big kid (6'3 195 pounds and room to grow). Nicushkin's a pretty good forward with a ton of potential and professional experience already. He's got a knack for scoring and from the little I've seen, he's got really good vision and upper tier puck handling. I'd be nervous to pick Nicushkin because he doesn't really project quite as much talent as other Russians who seemed like safer picks. I mean the potential and the tool box is there and it's apparent. But he's a real boom bust pick here. I'm having him go this high because the potential is high and Max Domi would've been redundant with the Stars having just picked Radek Faksa last year. Max Domi is an improvement but not a very big one. If Nicushkin can really put it together, the Stars are rewarded with a talented center with a ton of size, a hot commodity in today's NHL.
Clear BPA here. Personally I feel that he can challenge Curtis Lazar for a higher spot in this draft. I use that comparison because as far as playing style goes, Domi is pretty similar to Lazar. Offensively, he's had a better year, and if Lazar keeps floundering in that regard, he's gonna start slipping down the lists. And it really works out for Boston because Domi does fit into Boston's playing style pretty well. They aren't exactly starved for centers but I'm sure if coaching asked him to, it wouldn't be difficult for Max to transition to the wing. Pick 15 and teams are still getting top 10 value.
Not that they're hungry for left wingers or anything but adding Mantha to the fold certainly can't hurt. Another prolific scorer coming out of the Q this year, Mantha's a great combination of size and skill and he could be a real threat to crack Winnipeg's top 6 in a few years. Doubt he steals Kane's first line job, but being the guy right behind him on the depth chart is a damn good deal for the Peg.
Another testament to how good this draft is that Hagg could possibly go this low. Hagg's a terrific skater first of all and he's a pretty good puck mover on the point. I'm not quite sold on his defensive play yet, but that's something that can be smoothed out in time. Great skill. Good value for Washington this low, repeating their striking gold with Forsberg last summer.
I know many Hab fans desperately want a top 5 pick (I mean who doesn't) this year but some posts I've seen border on "we can't survive without one" mentality. You'll be fine if the lottery doesn't go your way. Duclair isn't elite by any means but he's a solid threat to play in Montreal's top 6 one day. He may not have the size but he certainly brings skill, good stick work, and great vision in the offensive zone. Plus he's already stationed in Quebec right now so it shouldn't be hard to win the hearts of the fans when he makes his arrival to the NHL.
I get the feeling I'm going to be told that if given the chance, Vancouver will pick Fucale, but I can't really see why. They still have Lu whether you guys consider that good or not, he's still an upper class NHL starter. If he was as bad as you make him out to be, the team wouldn't finish so high every year. Then you have the terrific Corey Schneider and behind him waiting in the pipeline is Eddie Lack. Anyway. Morrissey is a great pick here. The kid could go as high as 10th if enough scouts like what they see. To me I think he'll slip a bit because his play isn't exactly jaw to the floor worthy. He's a safe and smart defenseman who will get the job done.
Well they did grab two centers in last year's draft and they were both some quality value picks. Why not grab another? And this one is gonna have some considerable talent to bring to the equation. Another QMJHL center with a good knack for scoring. Not only that but he's only a little shorter than Tyler Myers at 6'5 (210 pounds). Big scoring centers are obviously a hot commodity, but Gauthier is going to have to work on a few aspects of his game if he wants to excel at the professional level. I think he can, but we'll see.
I'm gonna level with you guys, I haven't watched this guy play a single game...or...if he was at the last U-18 WJC for Sweden, I didn't notice him much. But I've read great things about him and I've seen him go as high as 8th on some lists.
22.) Los Angeles
What's the good news? Those damn Kings aren't picking high this year! Bad news? Guys like Rychel are still available around 22 giving the Kings great value. Despite some inconsistencies in his all around game, Kerby might be one of the best natural scorers in this draft. If Windsor can (and I certainly believe they can) develop him right, Rychel could even challenge for a top 6 role but more likely than not, strong depth will push a potentially great player to the outer 9 only making the Kings offense stronger. Oh and I think he was raised in California too :)...accept my kindness gratiously Kings fans.
The Avs need a new center like the NHL needs to end this ****ing lockout. Duchene, Stastny, and O'Reilly? It's ridiculous at this point. Compher is an interesting prospect to me. I see a ton of pro level potential in him. Maybe even a shot at stardom if he's developed right, but he does seem to be a step below many other 2013 eligibles. I see an excellent toolbox, a strong body, and a willingness to fight to make his team win. He just needs some work developmentally and the payout could be pretty great for Colorado.
I gotta say, after monopolizing the last 3 first overalls, and after what Schultz did to the Ducks I'm going to remorselessly grin like an idiot if Edmonton picks 20th or lower. I won't really be disappointed or surprised if they go top 10 (Edmonton fans think I despise them) though. Made this pick pretending I'm that dunce Tambellini. Not saying Carrier is a bad pick. In fact, personally here I believe he's the BPA. But it would be a bad desicion here because they've addressed the offense every year for the last 3 years. It's time to look at the defense and goaltending. Their defensive pipeline isn't as poor as many nay-sayers will claim, but it's not quite looking like it'll pan out into the upper echelon of the NHL's bluelines as the Oil faithful so boldly claim. I know Tambo would absolutely give in to fan demands and fully expect Carrier to be the final piece to Edmonton's top 6 puzzle, giving them a second line center to be excited about (all of a sudden Gagner isn't so good when we talk about Edmonton's draft needs). And he wouldn't exactly be wrong in expecting that. Carrier is an absolute beast offensively. He's carrying (no pun intended) his entire team on his back. The problem is, Carrier doesn't know how to utilize his linemates. He's gotten used to poor support and so he thinks he has to do everything on his own. If he can fix that he should be a good NHL threat but I really do think the Oil should try to strengthen that blueline.
25.) New York
New York loves their USNTDP players. Not quite sure Fasching is who they'd go for here, I could see them maybe opting for Hartman or McCoshen instead (but drafting McCoshen is almost unfair to Ian...that's a hard blueline to crack. Fasching is kind of a diamond in the rough who looks like getting polished is no guarantee. He showed flashes of brilliance in the USA games I would watch, but something about him underwhelmed me. I think this might change come draft day, and his adult size certainly won't hold him back, and maybe New York calls his name.
26.) San Jose
Well Detroit may be picking first, but at least San Jose isn't in the top 15. Win. Although Horvat is a pretty good value pick. He's got the skills to be an impact player so I can't take solace in the fact that a low pick means less chance for san jose to strengthen their pipeline. I just...I can't put my finger on it, but I see bust potential in Horvat. There's something underwhelming about the way he plays.
27.) St. Louis
Is he really 6'6 225? That's incredible. Haven't watched him play so I'll copypasta a scouting report I found on him. "Huge aggressive winger who is blossoming into a force with great long-term upside. Budding power wing who is smart in most phases and able to inflict damage in all forms possible. Skates well when carrying the puck and is a load when he stickhandles down. Lowers a shoulder and puches through at full steam. He can handle the puck at top speed and is proving to be a fine playmaker too. Poised, skilled AND plain nasty. Hits to hurt and finishes guys off. He plays hard and has a real strong shot from the perimeter, but is far from a perimeter guy as he pounds his way in, and makes smart plays on most touches. Skates with short strides and a bit too upright but he skates well with or without the biscuit. Lived his early years on the reservation that is part of his heritage. Tremedous potential."
Jacob De la Rose-LW
Can't feel bad for them picking this low because their pipeline is pretty strong. And they could be getting a steal of a player in De la Rose. Underwhelming numbers have hurt this former top 15 hopeful's stock, but watching him play, the talent is there. The potential is visible. The execution hasn't really been where it needs to be. But Ottawa is great with prospects, and a future all Swede line of De La Rose-Zibanejad-Silfverberg (anchored by Karlsson of course) sure doesn't sound awful if you ask me.
29.) New Jersey
I'm not too familiar with next year's crop of goaltenders so I can't say how urgent it is to pick a goalie this good if they can help it, but you gotta assume Marty B doesn't have much left in him. Fucale has the toolbox to be an NHL starter if he's developed right. Can I guarantee he'll be a franchise goalie? No. But can anyone predict that about any draft eligible goalies? Fucale really is the best player available as far as overall talent goes
Hmm, polar opposite of the "Bettman draft" option. I guess at pick 30 this one's gonna be a bit of a boom or bust type deal. Hartman strikes me as a guy who can go as high as 15 and as low as 45. There's a lot of talent there but at times it only shows up in random bursts.
So, I'm not as familiar with the rest of the prospects, I'm doing my research and what not, so I'm gonna try two more rounds without explanations for the picks. Don't hate on them too much as at this point it's more of a ranking with an attempt at team need consideration. No trades taken into account either.
Pittsburgh: Steve Santini
New Jersey: Jason Dickinson
Ottawa: Justin Bailey
St. Louis: Attruri Lehkonen
San Jose: Linus Arnesson
New York: Oliver Bjorkstrand
Edmonton: Ian McCoshen
Colorado: Madison Bowey
Los Angeles: Ryan Kujawinski
Florida: Matt Murphy
Buffalo: Spencer Martin
Vancouver: Shea Theodore
Montreal: Nick Sorensen
Washington: Anton Slepyshev
Winnipeg: Alexander Wennberg
Boston: Ross Olsson
Dallas: Shea Theodore
NYI: Wiley Sherman
Phoenix: Tyler Motte
Carolina: Will Butcher
Nashville: Micheal McCarron
Minnesota: Morgan Klimchuk
Toronto: Alex Forsberg
Philadelphia: Keaton Thompson
Anaheim: Alex Henriksson
Calgary: Nic Petan
Chicago: JC Lipon
Columbus: Eric Comrie
Tampa: Rinat Valiyev
Detroit: Brett Pesce
Detroit: Marcus Hogberg
Tampa: Mirco Muller
Columbus: Marc-Olivier Roy
Chicago: Conner Hurley
Calgary: Bogdan Yakimov
Anaheim: Micheal Downing
Philadelphia: Luke Johnson
Toronto: Paul Buchnevich
eh I quit.
Montreal picks Jordan Subban
Phoenix picks Ekman Larsson's brother
New Jersey picks Anthony Brodeur.
I like the Brodeur pick for New Jersey.. After the Howe's, I never thought we'd ever see a father/son combo play together, but the fact that it could very easily happen astounds me.
Hunter Shinkaruk, Valeri Nichushkin, Kerby Rychel, William Carrier are all LW's.
I'd say Tyler Hill is nowhere near a 1st round pick. He's got a lot to prove.
Nikita Zadorov is huge,decent offensively and good defensively, but he's just not GREAT. He's not all that aggressive or physical despite his huge mass. He does have an advangtage of being big enough already for the pros though.
I know you said you didn't remember the trades in this draft, but all there is in the 1st round is CBJ own the LA and NYR picks.
Bah whatever. I'm too lazy to change it now. I spent more time than I should've on this. And I liked what I saw out of Zadorov. And I could've sworn Shinkaruk was a center. He centered Etem's line last year. Nicushkin, Rychel, and Carrier were all listed as centers on the list I was using, and I could've sworn Carrier was centering his line in the Cape Breton game I streamed a few weeks ago.
Also, what you described about Zadorov's game didn't stop Oleksiak from going as high as he did.
I'm almost certain Calgary would take Lindholm in that situation but nice mock regardless.
Josh Morrissey is definitely a pick I'd want Vancouver to make. He'd be just what we need for our prospect pool. Only knock is that unlike Pulock/Ristolainen he's not right handed, but still, I'd be very happy if we landed him.
I'd also take Lipon in the 2nd round, but that's just me.
And I think Nichushkin is a bit low. I don't know too much about how the Russian factor would affect him, but I don't see him falling below Zadorov.
if the Oilers pick that low (24) then i'd like to see them pull a Detroit and trade it for a couple of extra 2nd rounders. doesn't Montreal have about three 2nd rounders?
Tyler is is definitely a Huge Speciman.
Rangers will definitely keep away from him.
I don't necessarily agree with all your picks, but I like that you've taken your time to write up your reasonings. Well done.
Also, I do know the Russian factor does come into play, but I think Nichushkin is hands down a better pick than Zadorov. Although maybe Zadorov is somehow more likely to play in the NHL? I don't know.
Yeah I know about Oleksiak. Boris Valabik is an example of huge d-men getting selected too high though. I just think Zadorov should be around 20th.
Solid list though!
if they didn't trade the pick, there's a chance the Oilers could take de la Rose and not Carrier for a little more size up front, but not upset with the pick at that spot....as for the 2nd round, i'd be thrilled if the Oil managed to scoop up McCoshen...big, tough and talented.
I don't think Horvat will go quite that high, but I do like him as a Sharks pick. If we could grab an early 2nd, I'd love him. Everything I see and read about him screams Sharks pick.
Not too sure why you think Canucks fans would want a goalie?
Don't know any Canuck fan who would take a goalie in the first two rounds this year.
I like both picks you made for Vancouver, although I'd probably lean towards a forward in the 1st - I like Dickinson here, and a lot of reports lead me to believe Compher has a lot of the characteristics our front office covet.
Tarasenko was considered a top 10 threat. Maybe even top 5. He did not go where expected. Zadorov will be an easy player to keep tabs on.
I'd take Lindholm over Monahan for the Blackhawks, and I think they would too.. and Chicago doesn't have their 2nd or 3rd round picks for this draft.
Personally, I'd go with Lindholm over Monahan for the Hawks too. I think Lindholm has more offensive upside, plus he's quite good defensively too. With Toews and Bolland, you need someone to take advantage of the soft minutes otherwise they're wasted.
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