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-   -   Value of: Dustin Byfuglien (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1306669)

Jets 12-11-2012 09:12 PM

Dustin Byfuglien
 
He scores a ton and racks up a lot of points, and plays top line minutes, but his defensive lapses sometimes lead people to question his ability. While he is a fan favourite in Winnipeg, I think the Jets management is looking to build a disciplined system from the top down and his freelancing style and interesting persona is kind of opposite of that philosophy. If he were to be dealt, what kind of return would teams be offering?

sully1410 12-11-2012 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jets (Post 56467127)
He scores a ton and racks up a lot of points, and plays top line minutes, but his defensive lapses sometimes lead people to question his ability. While he is a fan favourite in Winnipeg, I think the Jets management is looking to build a disciplined system from the top down and his freelancing style and interesting persona is kind of opposite of that philosophy. If he were to be dealt, what kind of return would teams be offering?

I, personally, wouldn't be interested unless we got an impact forward in return. Goligoski returned James Neal, so something along those lines.

JayKing 12-11-2012 09:27 PM

I'd love to have Buff and Subban on the rush, but I'm guessing the Jet's price for him would be too high for the Habs.

Machinehead 12-11-2012 09:32 PM

I would offer Hagelin, Rupp, (to shave a little salary off) and a 1st...

...on one MAJOR condition: I want him at forward. I have absolutely no interest in Byfuglien at defense. If he's unwilling to move I'm unwilling to trade.

Tell me if I need to add.

sully1410 12-11-2012 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Machinehead (Post 56467745)
I would offer Hagelin, Rupp, (to shave a little salary off) and a 1st...

...on one MAJOR condition: I want him at forward. I have absolutely no interest in Byfuglien at defense. If he's unwilling to move I'm unwilling to trade.

Tell me if I need to add.

thats not enough for one thing...as much as I like those players.

and why the hell would you want the guy at forward? You have plenty of shut down D to shield his defensive screw ups, and you only have one puck mover.

Buff got like 30pts at forward with the exception of a great playoff run in '10. At D, he was almost a ppg player lol. in 66 games he got 53 pts. At forward he maxed out at 36pts, and never broke the 20g plateau.

His D isn't even that bad, he's just really bad at transitioning from one zone to another.

Machinehead 12-11-2012 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sully1410 (Post 56468199)
thats not enough for one thing...as much as I like those players.

and why the hell would you want the guy at forward? You have plenty of shut down D to shield his defensive screw ups, and you only have one puck mover.

Buff got like 30pts at forward with the exception of a great playoff run in '10. At D, he was almost a ppg player lol. in 66 games he got 53 pts. At forward he maxed out at 36pts, and never broke the 20g plateau.

His D isn't even that bad, he's just really bad at transitioning from one zone to another.

I think he's built for forward and was never given a chance to blossom on that offensively stacked Chicago team. Move him back now and he'd put up monster points imo. Could hit 70 points.

Of course I'd keep him at the point on the PP, that seems a good role for him. But even strength I'd want him focused on scoring. I'd be willing to offer Kreider, I think Byfuglien is that good offensively. Guys who weigh almost 300 points shouldn't have his hands and skating ability; it's scary really.

Richards feeding him one-timers on the PP and his half-ton ass driving the net even strength. Yeah I'd give up our best prospect for that.

Luck 6 12-11-2012 10:03 PM

Jensen, Ballard, 2nd

Would that get us anywhere? Jensen is young, but he projects as an impact forward as early as next year (his incredible goal pace as a SEL rookie is testament to that). If you're looking for an established top 6 winger in return, I doubt Vancouver would be able to make a pitch.

xX Hot Fuss 12-11-2012 10:19 PM

Hawks will take him back in the last year of his deal at the deadline to ensure we get playoff Buff and not regular season lazy Buff

Paradise 12-11-2012 10:36 PM

From a trade standpoint, we'll keep him for this year for sure, maybe even 2014. The Jets would need a top 4 d-man to replace Buff's minutes, if we were to deal him. I don't see this move taking place anytime soon, since we'd need to build up our prospects in our system and develop them to the point that they could replace players on the roster (not currently there). The Jets are wanting to compete for a playoff spot as soon as possible. Moving Buff right now doesn't do that.

Now as a value of thread...

A) A single player with equal value (top pairing D, top 6 RW)

B) A top 4 defender + top prospect + 1st rounder.

Most fans would prefer option A, since we think we should be competing for the playoffs right now. A quantity for quality trade doesn't help us currently.

Flair Hay 12-11-2012 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luck 6 (Post 56468709)
Jensen, Ballard, 2nd

Would that get us anywhere? Jensen is young, but he projects as an impact forward as early as next year (his incredible goal pace as a SEL rookie is testament to that). If you're looking for an established top 6 winger in return, I doubt Vancouver would be able to make a pitch.

Knowing Vancouver's roster well myself, and given the OP's statements on the Jets are accurate IMO..

Jensen, Tanev and a 1st is probably about right. Three good prospects from Vancouver, certainly. But Byfuglien hasn't even reached his potential as an all around player. Probably never will, but he definitely grew as a defenseman a ton over the course of the year.

The two young guys and a 1st would certainly fill two of our long term spots. Claude Noel has been known for developing defenseman specifically. That alone makes me think the Jets should hang on to Buff. He's a game changer in a way not many defenseman are.

Put it this way, the package Vancouver would be giving up would put them in ultra win now mode, but short term Buff would be worth it.

Imagine Bieksa, but 275 lbs with better skating ability paired with Hamhuis...

Inflict 12-12-2012 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sully1410 (Post 56467443)
I, personally, wouldn't be interested unless we got an impact forward in return. Goligoski returned James Neal, so something along those lines.

This is pretty much sums up my feelings on the issue. We need a franchise forward in exchange for a franchise defenseman.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmdubois585 (Post 56467573)
I'd love to have Buff and Subban on the rush, but I'm guessing the Jet's price for him would be too high for the Habs.

Yeah, it would cost Pacioretty and a pick/defenceman.

Quote:

Originally Posted by xX Hot Fuss (Post 56469235)
Hawks will take him back in the last year of his deal at the deadline to ensure we get playoff Buff and not regular season lazy Buff

Buff may not be the most defensively responsible, but I wouldn't call him lazy. He just prefers to make the big play rather than the safe play most of the time and the thing is, he has the size and skill to do it.

Vatican Roulette 12-12-2012 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Machinehead (Post 56468415)
I think he's built for forward and was never given a chance to blossom on that offensively stacked Chicago team. Move him back now and he'd put up monster points imo. Could hit 70 points.

Of course I'd keep him at the point on the PP, that seems a good role for him. But even strength I'd want him focused on scoring. I'd be willing to offer Kreider, I think Byfuglien is that good offensively. Guys who weigh almost 300 points shouldn't have his hands and skating ability; it's scary really.

Richards feeding him one-timers on the PP and his half-ton ass driving the net even strength. Yeah I'd give up our best prospect for that.

Thank you for posting this. Most people seem him at forward and see that s his potential at forward.

But if used on the point on the pp, and then a big crashing forward in the top 6...wow

Inflict 12-12-2012 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luck 6 (Post 56468709)
Jensen, Ballard, 2nd

Would that get us anywhere? Jensen is young, but he projects as an impact forward as early as next year (his incredible goal pace as a SEL rookie is testament to that). If you're looking for an established top 6 winger in return, I doubt Vancouver would be able to make a pitch.

Goddammit. It seems that every proposal with Vancouver has Ballard in it. No one wants Ballard and his inflated contract. He would be a serviceable bottom pairing D-man if he was cheap, but his current contract makes him have 0 value. Sorry for the rant, but it's true...

Anyways, seeing as Vancouver would need to make cap space, we can't take your prospects and would require a solid roster player such as Kesler or Hamhuis +. A steep price, I know, but it's the only way our two teams can make a deal in a cap space world.

Flair Hay 12-12-2012 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 56472977)
Goddammit. It seems that every proposal with Vancouver has Ballard in it. No one wants Ballard and his inflated contract. He would be a serviceable bottom pairing D-man if he was cheap, but his current contract makes him have 0 value. Sorry for the rant, but it's true...

Anyways, seeing as Vancouver would need to make cap space, we can't take your prospects and would require a solid roster player such as Kesler or Hamhuis +. A steep price, I know, but it's the only way our two teams can make a deal in a cap space world.

Kesler and Hamhuis are both good enough players to fetch Byfuglien. Both are such consistent, smart, hard every shift players. Buff is dynamic, but those guys' consistency makes them just as valuable as Buff. Probably not for Hamhuis, but Kesler for Byfuglien straight up I'd probably do. As a Jets fan. Vancouver never would anyway though.

garret9 12-12-2012 04:27 AM

Bogosian needs a year or two before he can take up Buff's minutes.
Redmond and Postma likely will never be able to take Bogosian's defensive minutes so that means the Jets are most likely moving Byfuglien (if they do move him) when Trouba is ready as a 2nd pairing Dman.

Who knows how Byfuglien will look in 2 years, health and value wise. I've fought hard here that Buff's ability as a game-changer/franchise D far outweighs (pun) his gaffs... that being said, a man of his size may end up having health issues (ex: knees) which may diminish his game-changing abilities and therefore value.

It's sad, but there is a chance that Byfuglien's value is highest now, and may be substantially lower when the Jets are able to, if they are wanting to, send him to the trading block.

Value wise, some people have posted above. Most likely another franchise-to-franchise-lite player. Most likely swapping someone equally dynamic but maybe the players on each side fit the needs and values of each team better.

garret9 12-12-2012 04:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bhay1987 (Post 56473275)
Kesler and Hamhuis are both good enough players to fetch Byfuglien. Both are such consistent, smart, hard every shift players. Buff is dynamic, but those guys' consistency makes them just as valuable as Buff. Probably not for Hamhuis, but Kesler for Byfuglien straight up I'd probably do. As a Jets fan. Vancouver never would anyway though.

I know most Vancouver fans would shoot me first before believing this, but...

Kesler for the last two seasons has been almost identical to Little, almost to the point where it's kind of creepy.

Would you trade Byfuglien straight up for a second Little? Maybe... who knows.

Now I know the major defence for Kesler is major injuries may have caused setbacks and he may come back to form, but....
1) that doesn't create value, that actually depreciates it due to the uncertainty (although some may try to use that depreciation to get a steal, but that's a gamble not value)
2) at 28 you most likely have seen Kesler's best years as it is unlikely he will improve as most forwards peak between 24-27 (which again may not be the case for Kesler, but you don't bank on such things for trade value)

StringerBell 12-12-2012 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inflict (Post 56472977)
we can't take your prospects and would require a solid roster player such as Kesler or Hamhuis +.

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 56473841)
Kesler for the last two seasons has been almost identical to Little, almost to the point where it's kind of creepy.

Oh geez. I know it's all the rage to crap on the Canucks, and you guys are free to believe whatever you want, but yeah... I'm just not seeing it.

Inflict 12-12-2012 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 56473841)
I know most Vancouver fans would shoot me first before believing this, but...

Kesler for the last two seasons has been almost identical to Little, almost to the point where it's kind of creepy.

Would you trade Byfuglien straight up for a second Little? Maybe... who knows

I think Kesler is a bigger and better version of Little who can score 40 goals with the right line mates. Granted, 15 of those goals that year came on the PP with the Sedins, but he was mostly regulated to 2nd line duty for the rest of his goals. Would I trade him straight up? Probably not. It would require a little more to close the gap on both ways. I proposed Kesler + Tanev for Buff + Cormier before in another thread, which I think still has good value as Buff > Kesler and Tanev > Cormier. Tanev somewhat replaces Buff as a 2nd -3rd pairing dman and Cormier somewhat replaces Kesler as a bottom six forward that could kill penalties and is good at faceoffs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by StringerBell (Post 56474155)
Oh geez. I know it's all the rage to crap on the Canucks, and you guys are free to believe whatever you want, but yeah... I'm just not seeing it.

The nucks are my second favourite team. They were THE favourite before the Jets came back. I'm not crapping all over them, but I still stand by my Ballard comments. I raged when the nucks traded Grabner for him and I still do today.

LeX4cavalier 12-12-2012 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 56473841)
I know most Vancouver fans would shoot me first before believing this, but...

Kesler for the last two seasons has been almost identical to Little, almost to the point where it's kind of creepy.

Would you trade Byfuglien straight up for a second Little? Maybe... who knows.

Now I know the major defence for Kesler is major injuries may have caused setbacks and he may come back to form, but....
1) that doesn't create value, that actually depreciates it due to the uncertainty (although some may try to use that depreciation to get a steal, but that's a gamble not value)
2) at 28 you most likely have seen Kesler's best years as it is unlikely he will improve as most forwards peak between 24-27 (which again may not be the case for Kesler, but you don't bank on such things for trade value)

Almost identical the last 2 seasons? Where is Little's Selke and a 40 goal season? I love how Jets fans are saying they wouldn't trade Byfuglien straight up for Kesler, the Canucks would laugh if Byfuglien was offered straight up for Kesler.

sully1410 12-12-2012 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 56473841)
I know most Vancouver fans would shoot me first before believing this, but...

Kesler for the last two seasons has been almost identical to Little, almost to the point where it's kind of creepy.

Would you trade Byfuglien straight up for a second Little? Maybe... who knows.

Now I know the major defence for Kesler is major injuries may have caused setbacks and he may come back to form, but....
1) that doesn't create value, that actually depreciates it due to the uncertainty (although some may try to use that depreciation to get a steal, but that's a gamble not value)
2) at 28 you most likely have seen Kesler's best years as it is unlikely he will improve as most forwards peak between 24-27 (which again may not be the case for Kesler, but you don't bank on such things for trade value)

I'm not sure I follow you...that being said...everyone myself included had better be prepared for a garret9 wall of statisical proof that the two are alot more similar then meets the eyes. But Kes has put up one 41g season and one 28g season in a season that was hampered by a torn labia(i know its labrum), Little is a few season removed from putting up his best numbers with Kovalchuk and Kozlov.

Kes also put up that 41g season with Samuelsson and Raymond as linemates...not exactly the cream of the crop in terms of offensive abilities.

I see the value of Buff for Kesler...or the small additions that another poster issued. Being as impartial and objective as I am, I do see that it is equal...more or less. However that being said, Kesler would be an amazing addition to the Jets team and definitely the type of center that we would be looking for.

However, Vancouver already has a great D core...and Buff's offense from the back end will not make up for the missing Kesler. Buff is just as important to us....but in no way would replace Kesler.

Kes is just so important to the Canucks team. Most people would agree that Van could make it through the regular season no problem without him...but they would be ****ed in the playoffs. He is one of the best two way forwards in the league, probably top five at least. He does everything he scores goals, he kills almost all their penalties, and draws penalties as well...ok...he dives. But w/e. Drawing penalties is a good thing. He plays the tough minutes and is a physical threat. Definitely one of my favourite players in the league.

I think the value is bang on...but I dont see Vancouver doing this because it leaves a bigger hole then it fills.

Hawkaholic 12-12-2012 11:55 AM

I think Buff is worth more to WPG than in any trade.

I don't see them moving him unless they go into a rebuild.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 12:07 PM

i believe Buff dominated and bowled his way to a Cup, and was the real Conn Smythe winner. he's unique and should hold a lot of value.

Hawkaholic 12-12-2012 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480363)
i believe Buff dominated and bowled his way to a Cup, and was the real Conn Smythe winner. he's unique and should hold a lot of value.

Real Conn Smythe winner? :laugh:

For a guy who didn't play PK, and had lousy defense 5 on 5?

garret9 12-12-2012 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StringerBell (Post 56474155)
Oh geez. I know it's all the rage to crap on the Canucks, and you guys are free to believe whatever you want, but yeah... I'm just not seeing it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeX4cavalier (Post 56477353)
Almost identical the last 2 seasons? Where is Little's Selke and a 40 goal season? I love how Jets fans are saying they wouldn't trade Byfuglien straight up for Kesler, the Canucks would laugh if Byfuglien was offered straight up for Kesler.

I'm not hating (or crapping) on Kesler or the Canucks... I think very highly of Kesler and I wasn't saying they were the same.

They were very similar, but their opportunities were different (ex: PP with Sedins and # of GP).

Kesler still beats Little, but it isn't that far off.

Vankiller Whale 12-12-2012 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garret9 (Post 56486113)
I'm not hating (or crapping) on Kesler or the Canucks... I think very highly of Kesler and I wasn't saying they were the same.

They were very similar, but their opportunities were different (ex: PP with Sedins and # of GP).

Kesler still beats Little, but it isn't that far off.

:facepalm:

When Little scores 40+ goals and wins a Selke, then maybe. Factoring a year when he was playing through injuries and such to twist advanced statistics doesn't change that.


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