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-   -   Speculation: More Luongo Talk (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1306899)

Guerzy 12-12-2012 11:21 AM

More Luongo Talk
 
Carry on.

Previous thread here.

Just so everyone is clear, if you get the following in this thread:

Warning = threadban
Infraction = forumban starting at 1 month

Bleach Clean 12-12-2012 11:26 AM

Y2K, just curious, have you done a CapGeek roster with a 60m cap next year? If so, I'm curious what kind of roster you have yielded with guys like Lupul/Hemsky coming back to VAN...?


Assuming you've re-signed Edler + Higgins + Lapierre of course.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 11:40 AM

im having a tough time understanding Leaf fans. they are so obsessed with how good their prospects ARE going to be that they dont really see how this mindset leads to nonstop futility. The Canucks under Burke had a fairly solid all around team, some superstar forwards, some solid Dmen, similar to TO currently (although Nazzy/Burt were a step up from Kessel). But Cloutier was the goalie, and was the weak link. But Burke stuck with him for years, and never adressed the problem. He inherited Giguere in ANA, and gave away Bryz.

Now please think about his history with goalies before you say you are confident in Reimer. Look at the Canucks organization today compared to back then. And then realize that this yearly contender relies on the foundation of goaltending. It doesnt matter what holes you create to get the foundation, as those slots are more easily filled. As people have pointed out repeatedly, a few more saves in a year = playoffs. There are almost never any chances to aquire a goalie of this calibre, unless you develop one. That is why talking about trade value is rather pointless, because theres almost nothing to compare it to.

Pics and prospects hold little value compared to genuine real guaranteed elite play. And you'll never get out of the basement with the 'but our prospects will all be 25 goal scorers one day!' mentality.

DJOpus 12-12-2012 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 56479335)
Y2K, just curious, have you done a CapGeek roster with a 60m cap next year? If so, I'm curious what kind of roster you have yielded with guys like Lupul/Hemsky coming back to VAN...?

Assuming you've re-signed Edler + Higgins + Lapierre of course.

Honestly, why would anyone bother doing that? Right now they are negotiating based on a multi-year transitional period. Also, $60M is less than if the cap dropped to 50% without any transitional years. It could be argued the cap will never drop below $70M...at least that's the idea of the transitional years + estimated growth in the league.

I do think that eventually one of Luongo or Schneider will need to be traded but I don't think it'll need to be this year (if there is a year) or even next. I think that as soon as Schneider can prove he's capable of being a starter at the NHL level one of the guys will be traded but until then, I wouldn't trade Luongo.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 11:46 AM

oh and i suggest these Luongo threads be titled 'Luongo thread - the ultimate lockout time-killer'

The Saurus 12-12-2012 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56479669)
im having a tough time understanding Leaf fans. they are so obsessed with how good their prospects ARE going to be that they dont really see how this mindset leads to nonstop futility. The Canucks under Burke had a fairly solid all around team, some superstar forwards, some solid Dmen, similar to TO currently (although Nazzy/Burt were a step up from Kessel). But Cloutier was the goalie, and was the weak link. But Burke stuck with him for years, and never adressed the problem. He inherited Giguere in ANA, and gave away Bryz.

Now please think about his history with goalies before you say you are confident in Reimer. Look at the Canucks organization today compared to back then. And then realize that this yearly contender relies on the foundation of goaltending. It doesnt matter what holes you create to get the foundation, as those slots are more easily filled. As people have pointed out repeatedly, a few more saves in a year = playoffs. There are almost never any chances to aquire a goalie of this calibre, unless you develop one. That is why talking about trade value is rather pointless, because theres almost nothing to compare it to.

Pics and prospects hold little value compared to genuine real guaranteed elite play. And you'll never get out of the basement with the 'but our prospects will all be 25 goal scorers one day!' mentality.

Absolutely right. Augmenting a young core with solid veteran experience is essential to building a winner. But in a cap dominated world, the most important thing is managing salary decisions. Roberto could really impact upon the Leafs' salary cap during and after his decline.

Bleach Clean 12-12-2012 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJOpus (Post 56479679)
Honestly, why would anyone bother doing that? Right now they are negotiating based on a multi-year transitional period. Also, $60M is less than if the cap dropped to 50% without any transitional years. It could be argued the cap will never drop below $70M...at least that's the idea of the transitional years + estimated growth in the league.

I do think that eventually one of Luongo or Schneider will need to be traded but I don't think it'll need to be this year (if there is a year) or even next. I think that as soon as Schneider can prove he's capable of being a starter at the NHL level one of the guys will be traded but until then, I wouldn't trade Luongo.



Read the latest Cam Charron article, as it pertains to Edler and the expected cap drop. The estimate is from 55m-60m. The latter number being speculated by numerous sources. That's why I asked.



You can ignore the information, even speculate the cap will stay the same, but when many prognosticators are projecting a 60m cap, I think it best to evaluate a trade based on this number.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Saurus (Post 56479839)
Absolutely right. Augmenting a young core with solid veteran experience is essential to building a winner. But in a cap dominated world, the most important thing is managing salary decisions. Roberto could really impact upon the Leafs' salary cap during and after his decline.

but to build a winner, you have to start winning. you dont worry about 5 years down the road, you do what you can to win, and adapt with the times. Lu's contract was signed to guarantee good goaltending at a good cap hit. I guess TO fans see 5.3mil as too much for a goalie, so thats where we'll disagree. Like i said, its not about 5-6 years away, its about next season and the following 4. Losing is not attractive for free agents or to resign your star player. Look at the canucks, the entire core signed for below market value to be part of a winner. WHen a team loses, they have to overpay to keep their good players (see Grabovski @ 5.5 compared to Kesler @ 5.0). And if it werent for the players we developed taking discounts (sedins/kes/burr/hansen) then we wouldnt have been able to get discounts on UFA's like Hamhuis.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56479669)
im having a tough time understanding Leaf fans. they are so obsessed with how good their prospects ARE going to be that they dont really see how this mindset leads to nonstop futility. The Canucks under Burke had a fairly solid all around team, some superstar forwards, some solid Dmen, similar to TO currently (although Nazzy/Burt were a step up from Kessel). But Cloutier was the goalie, and was the weak link. But Burke stuck with him for years, and never adressed the problem. He inherited Giguere in ANA, and gave away Bryz.

Now please think about his history with goalies before you say you are confident in Reimer. Look at the Canucks organization today compared to back then. And then realize that this yearly contender relies on the foundation of goaltending. It doesnt matter what holes you create to get the foundation, as those slots are more easily filled. As people have pointed out repeatedly, a few more saves in a year = playoffs. There are almost never any chances to aquire a goalie of this calibre, unless you develop one. That is why talking about trade value is rather pointless, because theres almost nothing to compare it to.

Pics and prospects hold little value compared to genuine real guaranteed elite play. And you'll never get out of the basement with the 'but our prospects will all be 25 goal scorers one day!' mentality.

I assume you are a Nuck's fan? It certainly does matter. You don't deal multiple pieces of your youth/picks for an aging player on a long term deal. If Luongo was 26....we can talk like this.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480073)
but to build a winner, you have to start winning. you dont worry about 5 years down the road, you do what you can to win, and adapt with the times. Lu's contract was signed to guarantee good goaltending at a good cap hit. I guess TO fans see 5.3mil as too much for a goalie, so thats where we'll disagree. Like i said, its not about 5-6 years away, its about next season and the following 4. Losing is not attractive for free agents or to resign your star player. Look at the canucks, the entire core signed for below market value to be part of a winner. WHen a team loses, they have to overpay to keep their good players (see Grabovski @ 5.5 compared to Kesler @ 5.0). And if it werent for the players we developed taking discounts (sedins/kes/burr/hansen) then we wouldnt have been able to get discounts on UFA's like Hamhuis.

I'll throw it in reverse....if you guys don't win the cup in the next 4-5 years....what will your team look like? A hint, it will look like ours 4 years ago, older players and a shallow prospect pool.

spiny norman 12-12-2012 12:10 PM

A friendly reminder
 
I'm keeping a eye on this thread and will continue on the subsequent ones.

This thread is here to allow everyone to debate the merits of the various Luongo proposals that are presented.

All I ask is for everyone to please be respectful and civil to each other, and to refrain from making things personal.

Thank you.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 56480389)
I assume you are a Nuck's fan? It certainly does matter. You don't deal multiple pieces of your youth/picks for an agiing player on a long term deal. If Luongo was 26....we can talk like this.

Luongo is basically guaranteed to give you 5-6 years of elite play. Zero of the pics and prospects are guaranteed to do anything of note in the NHL. I dont know how you dont understand this.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480457)
Luongo is basically guaranteed to give you 5-6 years of elite play. Zero of the pics and prospects are guaranteed to do anything of note in the NHL. I dont know how you dont understand this.

No, he is not. And there inlies the problem. I don't think there is ANY gurantee that he is "elite" at the age of 39.

We could make 2 lists, goalies who were "elite" at 39, and those who aren't. Which do you think is the longer list?

y2kcanucks 12-12-2012 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 56479335)
Y2K, just curious, have you done a CapGeek roster with a 60m cap next year? If so, I'm curious what kind of roster you have yielded with guys like Lupul/Hemsky coming back to VAN...?


Assuming you've re-signed Edler + Higgins + Lapierre of course.

If the cap drops I don't see Lapierre getting much of a raise, if any.

Higgins would be a cap casualty as he would be too expensive for our 3rd line. I could see him replaced by Hartikainen or another cheap option (Jensen/Kassian?). Edler would probably have to sign for $4.6M as well.

I could see Ballard also being a cap casualty. Not too sure if this still works, but I also would be shocked if the cap upper limit were $60M. I think $64M is much more plausible.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 56480487)
No, he is not. And there inlies the problem. I don't think there is ANY gurantee that he is "elite" at the age of 39.

We could make 2 lists, goalies who were "elite" at 39, and those who aren't. Which do you think is the longer list?

Yeah I can tell you really dont have any clue who Luongo is, what kind of an athlete and competitor he is, and where he ranks all time in goalie stats.

TOGuy14 12-12-2012 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480457)
Luongo is basically guaranteed to give you 5-6 years of elite play. Zero of the pics and prospects are guaranteed to do anything of note in the NHL. I dont know how you dont understand this.

How can you make that statement?

If the above is true, then I can also baselessly claim that Lupul is good for about another decade of elite, top 10 winger production.

Bleach Clean 12-12-2012 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by y2kcanucks (Post 56480529)
If the cap drops I don't see Lapierre getting much of a raise, if any.

Higgins would be a cap casualty as he would be too expensive for our 3rd line. I could see him replaced by Hartikainen or another cheap option (Jensen/Kassian?). Edler would probably have to sign for $4.6M as well.

I could see Ballard also being a cap casualty. Not too sure if this still works, but I also would be shocked if the cap upper limit were $60M. I think $64M is much more plausible.



Try it with 60m, the speculated cap number, and see what you can do. I doubt Edler takes 4.6m and that the Canucks will just let Higgins and Lapierre walk. Ballard looks to be on the way out regardless.


Try it with 60m and fit Hemsky/Lupul in there... It's not pretty.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480603)
Yeah I can tell you really dont have any clue who Luongo is, what kind of an athlete and competitor he is, and where he ranks all time in goalie stats.

I am not knocking him AT ALL. I know how to read stats, but just like Kuli is not a 30 goal scorer because it's in the past, Luongo's past stats mean diddly. Most fans are asking a price that is tied to a much younger Luongo. I truly believe he will be great for another 3 years putting him at 36. That is where the risk kicks in, any team who takes him on is not going to pay a premium to be committed to 5-6 years. Just my opinion.

TOGuy14 12-12-2012 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480603)
Yeah I can tell you really dont have any clue who Luongo is, what kind of an athlete and competitor he is, and where he ranks all time in goalie stats.

Again, another Vancouver fan extolling the virtues of Luongo, he is ELITE, he is an ALL-TIME great etc while at the same time salivating to replace him on their cup contending team with a 26 year old goalie who hasn't been a full time starter ever in his career.

These things add up :sarcasm:

skywarp75 12-12-2012 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 56480723)
I am not knocking him AT ALL. I know how to read stats, but just like Kuli is not a 30 goal scorer because it's in the past, Luongo's past stats mean diddly. Most fans are asking a price that is tied to a much younger Luongo. I truly believe he will be great for another 3 years putting him at 36. That is where the risk kicks in, any team who takes him on is not going to pay a premium to be committed to 5-6 years. Just my opinion.

yeah i get that, and you are right, theres a chance he drops off, i just believe in him as ive watched him play every game for years, and gained insight into who he is as a combatant. by that age, he projects to be (30 win seasons) #2 in all time wins, behind only Brodeur.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480805)
yeah i get that, and you are right, theres a chance he drops off, i just believe in him as ive watched him play every game for years, and gained insight into who he is as a combatant. by that age, he projects to be (30 win seasons) #2 in all time wins, behind only Brodeur.

And i don't mean to sound rude, but that means nothing to me. My concern is, what will he do in the next 5-6 years if my team brings him in. History shows that in many cases, as a player ages, his play drops off. That's why the price ANY team pays, not just Toronto, needs to reflect that risk.

Bleach Clean 12-12-2012 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 56480487)
No, he is not. And there inlies the problem. I don't think there is ANY gurantee that he is "elite" at the age of 39.

We could make 2 lists, goalies who were "elite" at 39, and those who aren't. Which do you think is the longer list?



I wouldn't say "elite" for 5-6 years, more like 3-4 years and then a drop off to "good" afterwards. That's still better than a chunk of teams can do. I mean, some are even running young tenders that year to year could have many ups and downs.


Luongo is as consistent as it gets, year to year. If I'm betting one way or the other, I'm betting he's good well into late 30's. He's got the track record. He's got the attitude to remain in peak physical condition. The drive etc... The guy's a horse and I think it's exactly for this reason GIllis and Gilman structured the contract the way that they had. They also bet on him being good late into his career.

skywarp75 12-12-2012 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TOGuy14 (Post 56480747)
Again, another Vancouver fan extolling the virtues of Luongo, he is ELITE, he is an ALL-TIME great etc while at the same time salivating to replace him on their cup contending team with a 26 year old goalie who hasn't been a full time starter ever in his career.

These things add up :sarcasm:

Actually it does add up. Luongo is an all time great goalie, and is still playing at peak level. Cory is also a lifelong blue chipper who has dominated everywhere he's ever played, including the best ever save % in NHL history for how many games he has played. Sure its a small sample size, but its still better than anyone else in history.

In many generations, TO has never had a goalie like either of these 2. Cujo was good but not as good as either of these 2. Im not trolling, go look at pedigree. Lu and Cory have both been dominant their entire careers and everywhere theyve plaeyd. and just because Cory is ready to play NHL starter doesnt diminish Luongo at all, which all canuck fans know, but some people dont seem to get.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 56480905)
I wouldn't say "elite" for 5-6 years, more like 3-4 years and then a drop off to "good" afterwards. That's still better than a chunk of teams can do. I mean, some are even running young tenders that year to year could have many ups and downs.


Luongo is as consistent as it gets, year to year. If I'm betting one way or the other, I'm betting he's good well into late 30's. He's got the track record. He's got the attitude to remain in peak physical condition. The drive etc... The guy's a horse and I think it's exactly for this reason GIllis and Gilman structured the contract the way that they had. They also bet on him being good late into his career.

The problem is, it's TO that will be taking the gamble.

Liferleafer 12-12-2012 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skywarp75 (Post 56480923)
Actually it does add up. Luongo is an all time great goalie, and is still playing at peak level. Cory is also a lifelong blue chipper who has dominated everywhere he's ever played, including the best ever save % in NHL history for how many games he has played. Sure its a small sample size, but its still better than anyone else in history.

In many generations, TO has never had a goalie like either of these 2. Cujo was good but not as good as either of these 2. Im not trolling, go look at pedigree. Lu and Cory have both been dominant their entire careers and everywhere theyve plaeyd. and just because Cory is ready to play NHL starter doesnt diminish Luongo at all, which all canuck fans know, but some people dont seem to get.

You now, when referring to a team that had Johnny Bower and Jaques Plante at one time.....


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