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-   -   Too much prospect defense (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1310859)

LAX attack* 12-22-2012 02:59 PM

Too much prospect defense
 
I wanted to make this thread for some time now. This is a prospects section for hf, not an nhl one. I am looking in the schultz thread and than the armia thread and i see certain fanbases "rallying" around prospects. I think the fact that people feel the need to "defend" prospects is starting to take away from these boards, changing prospect threads for most of the important ones. Since most prospects fail to become nhlers it is probably well justified to criticize (without bias) but the threads are being ruined by people who can only see their prospects doing good. I would also, aside from making this point, like to discuss the methodology of analyzing a prospect. Many fans wrongly assume that explict success (stats and honors) in any particular league is a sign that a prospect is doing well. It turns out that being the highest scoring ohl'er cannot guarantee being above an ahl scrub, let alone a star. Success in those leagues will correllate with players who are going to continue to do well against opposition but this is a weak correlation. Only the very best top scorers make it to the nhl, everyone else is some sort of role player who is selected and eventually makes the nhl on a specific skill set, not on "overall" ability. Thanks for listening to my concen hopefully we can improve the methodology of prospect analysis and make hfboards a legit place where maybe scouts can chill some day. Ps, major pet peeve, these absolutely inane discussions about whether so and so player is canadian or american. Earth to posters it is a totally personal decision that may or may not deal with variables you may not even concieve of.

The Nose 12-22-2012 04:30 PM

Then whats the point of these forums?

1972 12-22-2012 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 (Post 56743083)
I wanted to make this thread for some time now. This is a prospects section for hf, not an nhl one. I am looking in the schultz thread and than the armia thread and i see certain fanbases "rallying" around prospects. I think the fact that people feel the need to "defend" prospects is starting to take away from these boards, changing prospect threads for most of the important ones. Since most prospects fail to become nhlers it is probably well justified to criticize (without bias) but the threads are being ruined by people who can only see their prospects doing good. I would also, aside from making this point, like to discuss the methodology of analyzing a prospect. Many fans wrongly assume that explict success (stats and honors) in any particular league is a sign that a prospect is doing well. It turns out that being the highest scoring ohl'er cannot guarantee being above an ahl scrub, let alone a star. Success in those leagues will correllate with players who are going to continue to do well against opposition but this is a weak correlation. Only the very best top scorers make it to the nhl, everyone else is some sort of role player who is selected and eventually makes the nhl on a specific skill set, not on "overall" ability. Thanks for listening to my concen hopefully we can improve the methodology of prospect analysis and make hfboards a legit place where maybe scouts can chill some day. Ps, major pet peeve, these absolutely inane discussions about whether so and so player is canadian or american. Earth to posters it is a totally personal decision that may or may not deal with variables you may not even concieve of.

I agree with most of what you said

Skinnyjimmy08 12-22-2012 04:45 PM

we are all just having some fun here... silly post

DKQ 12-22-2012 05:51 PM

A related pet peeve of mine around this time of year is people arguing in a very biased manner that their team's prospect should make a certain World Juniors team, when it is obvious that they only have an interest in this player because their team drafted them. World Juniors mean very little for a prospects development, and having a player be cut from a squad doesn't guarantee they will be a bust. I'd rather my country ice the best possible team of CHL and NCAA stars than have a prospect I hope to be a star in the NHL take a superior player's spot.

Vatican Roulette 12-22-2012 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 (Post 56743083)
I wanted to make this thread for some time now. This is a prospects section for hf, not an nhl one. I am looking in the schultz thread and than the armia thread and i see certain fanbases "rallying" around prospects. I think the fact that people feel the need to "defend" prospects is starting to take away from these boards, changing prospect threads for most of the important ones. Since most prospects fail to become nhlers it is probably well justified to criticize (without bias) but the threads are being ruined by people who can only see their prospects doing good. I would also, aside from making this point, like to discuss the methodology of analyzing a prospect. Many fans wrongly assume that explict success (stats and honors) in any particular league is a sign that a prospect is doing well. It turns out that being the highest scoring ohl'er cannot guarantee being above an ahl scrub, let alone a star. Success in those leagues will correllate with players who are going to continue to do well against opposition but this is a weak correlation. Only the very best top scorers make it to the nhl, everyone else is some sort of role player who is selected and eventually makes the nhl on a specific skill set, not on "overall" ability. Thanks for listening to my concen hopefully we can improve the methodology of prospect analysis and make hfboards a legit place where maybe scouts can chill some day. Ps, major pet peeve, these absolutely inane discussions about whether so and so player is canadian or american. Earth to posters it is a totally personal decision that may or may not deal with variables you may not even concieve of.

I agree. But, just a pointer. Use paragraphs so that people can read each point, almost like a newspaper. Most people on this site(and in general) see a wall of words and just reply to the topic head. Just some advice.

I think another major problem is that most people on the prospects board are just fans and will post to defend anything their team does/drafts/transacts, etc.

A lot of opinions on this site happen to be from people that either dont follow other prospects, or team bias.

Guru Meditation 12-22-2012 06:13 PM

I think you're confusing audiences here. There are two types of posters here: the scout and the fan.

The scout wants to seriously evaluate who will become the best player, and it doesn't really matter what team that guy plays for or who he belongs to. The scout wants to talk to other scouts and, really, wants to be a scout.

The fan, on the other hand, wants to be excited about his team's prospect. When the prospect does well, it's because he's an amazing prospect, and when the prospect doesn't do well, it's in spite of the fact that he's an amazing prospect. Outcomes aren't as important as the belief that one day the parent team will be just awesome. It's a fantasy type thing. It's fun.

Obviously, the two don't mix well. Fans tend to be huge homers and bickering detractors, and scouts tend to be uptight and willing to defend their analyses (no matter how flawed) to the death.

All you're saying is you want more scouts and less fans. I think instead they should create specific forums for each. Most importantly, the scouting forum needs to be rigorously moderated. If you post in the scout forum without specifying the exact game you saw the players in the question (and only one game at a time), that post gets deleted. Make it academic; you have to cite your sources.

1972 12-22-2012 06:17 PM

complete agree with the above, it gets annoying going in threads and having to look over a whole page to find one good post.

The "he is a beast" or "he is a bust" posts with no reasoning have grown tiresome.

GuillaumeLetsundress 12-22-2012 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darcy Regier (Post 56746771)
complete agree with the above, it gets annoying going in threads and having to look over a whole page to find one good post.

The "he is a beast" or "he is a bust" posts with no reasoning have grown tiresome.

or seeing something weird being said then you look over to their location/picture/name and then you go "ohhh"

HatTrick Swayze 12-22-2012 07:01 PM

I agree with what you said, OP.

I do also get annoyed by posters who repeatedly at best critique, at worst outright bash, the same prospect over and over in multiple threads.

Stop Winnin 12-22-2012 07:12 PM

You do realize that practically 99% of this forum is useless posts. This isn't a forum for scouts to study, this is a place for people to express their thoughts and nothing else.

LAX attack* 12-22-2012 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kishire (Post 56747691)
You do realize that practically 99% of this forum is useless posts. This isn't a forum for scouts to study, this is a place for people to express their thoughts and nothing else.

Its possible to express your thoughts in an intelligent and eloquent way. Hurdler, you are right. But i think that kind of dichotomy ignores the possibility that there are many fans who watch junior games and are able to contribute a little to our knowledge of prospects.

I think this forum would be a lot better if people didnt feel the need to express their opinions about prospects they have never seen

LAX attack* 12-22-2012 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 56747473)
I agree with what you said, OP.

I do also get annoyed by posters who repeatedly at best critique, at worst outright bash, the same prospect over and over in multiple threads.

Bashing a prospect is ridiculous, but the reality is that the attitude that a prospect can do no wrong has done far more damage to these boards. You start to question peoples opinions when every prospect is going to be a surefire top talent.

Kershaw 12-22-2012 08:34 PM

Prospects play a larger part in hockey than any other major NA sport. That's why people defend them more on here.

Hardyvan123 12-22-2012 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DropkickQuinn (Post 56746285)
A related pet peeve of mine around this time of year is people arguing in a very biased manner that their team's prospect should make a certain World Juniors team, when it is obvious that they only have an interest in this player because their team drafted them. World Juniors mean very little for a prospects development, and having a player be cut from a squad doesn't guarantee they will be a bust. I'd rather my country ice the best possible team of CHL and NCAA stars than have a prospect I hope to be a star in the NHL take a superior player's spot.

Agree 100%, it's amazing how many fan (atics) of a team will changer their opinion or crystallize it around a player once they are that team property.

There is no formula for applying any type of statistical success at any level to success at the NHL level.

People can project and post opinions but too many fan (atics) get their backs up when actual NHL comparisons are made and it's all rather frustrating and takes away from informed discussion.

It's not a question of being right or wrong about prospects but rather being realistic at least.

TheJuxtaposer 12-22-2012 09:33 PM

I agree with the OP, but there isn't anything you can do about it. People want to see the good and ignore the bad in their prospects. For example, Chris Kreider has never been an elite scorer at any level, and has like one point in his last month's worth of AHL games, but he's going to be the Rangers best forward in a couple of years.

Sweech 12-23-2012 02:13 AM

The problem is what you're looking for is people to be more objective and a little more open to negativity. In a perfect world it's plausible, but it's just not realistic.

You ever notice in pre-draft highlights they have a large section of a players pro's and only a small section on con's? It's because with every prospect you expect to carry a large amount of optimism. The real stats show the vast majority never amount to anything, but that's not what's being discussed. People want to imagine that player 'x' will become an impact player. Therefore they must tout that players strengths. No one likes to harp on the weaknesses because frankly that would be boring.

How trivial would it be to discuss a player that is never going to amount to anything? Statistically it's likely to happen, but if that's the starting mindset then why bother? Better to spend your time doing something else than discussing someone who is never going to amount to anything. This is why the biggest threads are discussing the "elite" prospects. A lower ranked prospect never garners much attention.

I also realize that's not what you're looking for. You're just looking for objective analysis, but realistically most posters haven't seen some if these players play (more than a few games at most, especially aside from the WJC). Most opinions are driven by a third party, often some kind of free scouting service report read on the internet. These service tout a players strengths. Again, this is because it makes it interesting. No one would read reports on why player 'x' is a dud (unless it's intentional to an otherwise high rated prospect to gain attention).

Thus peoples minds are filled with knowledge on how great player 'x' is without a whole lot of insight on what their flaws may be.

Also many posters aren't so much fans of certain prospects as they are fans of certain teams. Therefore critiquing a certain prospect will be seen as insulting a team and will likewise be defended.

Regardless these are forums and just like any other forum across the internet some posts are duds and some are truly enlightening. You are required to sift through the information, and deal with the people, no one is going to do that for you.

dnicks17 12-23-2012 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porknbeans1000 (Post 56749031)
Bashing a prospect is ridiculous, but the reality is that the attitude that a prospect can do no wrong has done far more damage to these boards. You start to question peoples opinions when every prospect is going to be a surefire top talent.

I'm not sure what damage you're referring to. The prospects board is one of the best prospect resources on the internet.

It's a message board. You aren't going to find discussions that are 100% objective or only involving posters with the utmost credibility.

You need to put in a little work to get what you want out of the prospects board. Put in some time and do some general research on the prospects and key in on some the credible posters on the board. Guys like Brock(from OHL Prospects), Renegade Stylings, any of the FC staff and shello are just a few examples I can think of off the top of my head. There's plenty of other posters with a very broad or specific knowledge of prospects too.

There's always going to be white noise. That's just the nature of a message board. With a little practise though, you'll find it easy to ignore it and find the actual information you're looking for.

LAX attack* 12-23-2012 06:28 AM

I truly appreciate the contributions of the posters you mentioned(and many other fine posters unmentioned). They keep me around these parts. At the same time, let me say that i number myself among those who do not follow lower leagues and follow an nhl team. I get all the white noise arguments but i also think the way the nhl draft is portrayed in the media trivializes the real drama of gms making draft picks that realistically accord with realistic expectations of success, fitting into team style or even business concerns. Of course how would you realistically have those absolutetely inane "steals of the draft that literly happened a day ago" type discussions

HatTrick Swayze 12-23-2012 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer (Post 56750329)
I agree with the OP, but there isn't anything you can do about it. People want to see the good and ignore the bad in their prospects. For example, Chris Kreider has never been an elite scorer at any level, and has like one point in his last month's worth of AHL games, but he's going to be the Rangers best forward in a couple of years.

See, somehow Chris Kreider finds a way to even get bashed in this thread. How many games have you seen him play this year? Watch him (and the CT Whale) and you may understand.

Also who the f said he would be the Rangers best forward? Now you're just making **** up.

LAX attack* 12-23-2012 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 56757001)
See, somehow Chris Kreider finds a way to even get bashed in this thread. How many games have you seen him play this year? Watch him (and the CT Whale) and you may understand.

Also who the f said he would be the Rangers best forward? Now you're just making **** up.

Of course a) this thread has nothing to do with him and b) without stating a contrary position you have just added another "non informational" post to hf, or what others have called "white noise".

1972 12-23-2012 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 56757001)
See, somehow Chris Kreider finds a way to even get bashed in this thread. How many games have you seen him play this year? Watch him (and the CT Whale) and you may understand.

Also who the f said he would be the Rangers best forward? Now you're just making **** up.

This is the type of post that some members have grown tired of

TheJuxtaposer 12-23-2012 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 56757001)
See, somehow Chris Kreider finds a way to even get bashed in this thread. How many games have you seen him play this year? Watch him (and the CT Whale) and you may understand.

Also who the f said he would be the Rangers best forward? Now you're just making **** up.

There you go.

Sorry, I was trying to provoke a response to show an example of what the OP was talking about.

(Also, I've seen several Rangers fans on here convinced he's going to be the Rangers best forward, a PPG, 40-goal, two-way All-Star. Secondly, I do watch AHL games and Kreider has been quite invisible in the dozen or so games I've seen. Thirdly, I don't care how great he'd playing, he still has a respectable 9% shooting, so it's not like he's not getting any luck or anything like that. He's just not an elite scoring prospect. That's all.)

DuckJet 12-23-2012 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HatTrick Swayze (Post 56757001)
See, somehow Chris Kreider finds a way to even get bashed in this thread. How many games have you seen him play this year? Watch him (and the CT Whale) and you may understand.

Also who the f said he would be the Rangers best forward? Now you're just making **** up.

Third party opinion, I can't really think of a better example than Kreider (maybe Zibanejad and Silfverberg who were supposed to be lighting it up), and outside of the three times Kreider and the Whale have played the Ads, I've watched him play 5 times and I swear to god there are times where I forget he's on the team. He's got nice speed but he's not utilizing it. The most impressive (not exactly impressive but noticeable) thing I've seen him do in those 8 games was light one of the Admirals up and get a suspension. But some fans will defend him to the bitter bust if it does end up coming to that (which I don't believe it will) instead of actually criticize his performance.

3rdlineglory 12-23-2012 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer (Post 56762293)
There you go.

Sorry, I was trying to provoke a response to show an example of what the OP was talking about.

(Also, I've seen several Rangers fans on here convinced he's going to be the Rangers best forward, a PPG, 40-goal, two-way All-Star. Secondly, I do watch AHL games and Kreider has been quite invisible in the dozen or so games I've seen. Thirdly, I don't care how great he'd playing, he still has a respectable 9% shooting, so it's not like he's not getting any luck or anything like that. He's just not an elite scoring prospect. That's all.)

How tacky of you. I knew someone would fall for it btw. What if I came in here and started dissing your favorite prospect? Oh and of course Hertl is your favorite prospect because he is the only decent prospect in the Sharks garbage prospect pool. I wonder if Sharks fans would let that one slide :p:? (Just for the record I don't truly feel that way about the Sharks prospect pool, I think it's pretty underrated. I don't want to start a flame war:laugh:.)

I may have joined recently, but I have been lurking these boards for over a year now and HatTrick is one of the most informed, objective posters on here. He responded to your post to disprove a myth. Kreider is a utility forward that works best with cerebral players (won't be a problem with Stepan and Richards being his potential centers if he develops into a top six forward.) He did well these past playoffs because he was working with better talent. He scored 5 goals in 20 games as a rookie against playoff calibre competition. That's a 20 goal pace if you prorate that for a full regular season! Not bad for a player that's mostly unfamiliar with his teammates, the coaches, and the system they employ. You see there is a difference between naive homerism and trying to disprove myths that are prevalent on this message board. As a Shark fan, you're probably used to constantly defending Joe Thornton whenever people say he's a playoff choker. (I know he's not a prospect, but that is still a case of people confusing posters calling out ******** and homerism.)


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