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-   -   Speculation: IF the entire season is locked out, where do the Leafs draft? (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1311009)

RCS 12-22-2012 11:11 PM

IF the entire season is locked out, where do the Leafs draft?
 
At this point it is almost safe to say that this season is a complete wash. With that in hand where would the Leafs pick at the 2013 draft? Would we pick 5th overall again as we did last season? This upcoming entry draft is very deep, and would be nice to have that top 5 pick.


How does this work?

leugangen 12-22-2012 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T M L (Post 56753425)
At this point it is almost safe to say that this season is a complete wash. With that in hand where would the Leafs pick at the 2013 draft? Would we pick 5th overall again as we did last season? This upcoming entry draft is very deep, and would be nice to have that top 5 pick.


How does this work?

It depends on the formula they use to determine how many lottery balls we would get (if they even go that route again). If it was the same as the last lockout, we would be one of a few teams with 3 balls. It would give us a 6% chance of winning the lottery, which isn't that high.

First we need to even find out if we will have a draft (if there is no CBA, no draft).

RCS 12-22-2012 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leugangen (Post 56753503)
It depends on the formula they use to determine how many lottery balls we would get (if they even go that route again). If it was the same as the last lockout, we would be one of a few teams with 3 balls. It would give us a 6% chance of winning the lottery, which isn't that high.

First we need to even find out if we will have a draft (if there is no CBA, no draft).

So no season = No draft. That sucks! I don't see how they can cancel the draft...

IF there is a draft then we are guaranteed a top 5 pick? Do I have that correct?

4evaBlue 12-22-2012 11:31 PM

If there is a shortened season, draft goes on as usual, based on team standings.

If the season gets cancelled, and the union stays together, then we get around a 30% chance to end up with a top 5 pick.

If the union decertifies, there's no draft (since it becomes illegal).

The Thin White Duke 12-23-2012 12:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4evaBlue (Post 56753729)
If there is a shortened season, draft goes on as usual, based on team standings.

If the season gets cancelled, and the union stays together, then we get around a 30% chance to end up with a top 5 pick.

If the union decertifies, there's no draft (since it becomes illegal).

Probably the best option for the Leafs. I'm sure they wouldn't mind throwing a few stupid-rich contracts to the entire top 5, they jersey sales alone would cover the cost if Toronto suddenly has a bright future.

Phion Keneuf 12-23-2012 12:40 AM

We'd get Pulock at least

Leafs For Life* 12-23-2012 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Phion Keneuf (Post 56754477)
We'd get Pulock at least

And Monahan. +Stamkos+Tavares+etc Ontario is probably the best hockey player producers

Phion Keneuf 12-23-2012 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 56754509)
And Monahan. +Stamkos+Tavares+etc Ontario is probably the best hockey player producers

Haha at least we can hope.

I think proven NhLers would rather stay on the team that they were on before IMO. Just a guess though

cyris 12-23-2012 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 56754509)
And Monahan. +Stamkos+Tavares+etc Ontario is probably the best hockey player producers

Seth Jones used to live in Toronto when his dad played here. :sarcasm:

eyeball11 12-23-2012 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 56754509)
And Monahan. +Stamkos+Tavares+etc Ontario is probably the best hockey player producers

What would be the best young all Ontario team one could make?

OK I went with 27 and under (one exception was E. Staal at 28). Pretty good team aside from goaltending.

Neal - Stamkos - Giroux
Seguin - Tavares - Perry
Prust - E. Staal* - Simmonds
Clifford - J. Staal - Read

Pietrangelo - Doughty
Burns - Del Zotto
Fowler - Subban

Elliott
Murphy

Suntouchable13 12-23-2012 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4evaBlue (Post 56753729)
If there is a shortened season, draft goes on as usual, based on team standings.

If the season gets cancelled, and the union stays together, then we get around a 30% chance to end up with a top 5 pick.

If the union decertifies, there's no draft (since it becomes illegal).

There has to be an agreement on a new CBA before the draft for it to happen. If they still don't have an agreement by the time when the draft was supposed to be then there would be no draft. You can't have a draft if you don't have a CBA in place, I don't think.

Morlesio14* 12-23-2012 10:56 AM

Wait, so if the Union decertifies the leafs would get the best players from ontario because of how we're the richest club? Would we be going european soccer style?

Mess 12-23-2012 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Suntouchable13 (Post 56758253)
There has to be an agreement on a new CBA before the draft for it to happen. If they still don't have an agreement by the time when the draft was supposed to be then there would be no draft. You can't have a draft if you don't have a CBA in place, I don't think.

Correct. No CBA, No Draft until there is one again.

As a lockout cancelled the games of the 2004–05 NHL season, the draft order was determined by lottery on July 22, 2005, after a new CBA had been finalized and the lockout ended.

Teams were assigned 1 to 3 balls based on their playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the past three years, as opposed to the regular reverse NHL standings format.

The draft was held in Ottawa on July 30, 2005, delayed from the usual late June date. The Pittsburgh Penguins won the draft lottery and, as expected, selected Sidney Crosby.

Bomber0104 12-23-2012 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T M L (Post 56753425)
At this point it is almost safe to say that this season is a complete wash. With that in hand where would the Leafs pick at the 2013 draft? Would we pick 5th overall again as we did last season? This upcoming entry draft is very deep, and would be nice to have that top 5 pick.


How does this work?

*ASSUMING THERE IS A PLAYERS UNION/CBA BY DRAFT TIME AND NO RADICAL CHANGES TO THE LABOR SITUATION*

and

**ASSUMING THE SAME FORMAT FROM THE LAST LOCKOUT PERSISTS**

There is a very low chance that the Leafs will have a top draft pick.

Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus, and New York were the odds-on favorites to get a top pick and only ONE of them ended up with a top five selection.

These type of schematics are a further anti competitive way for the league to prop up small market and struggling teams with an infusion of illegitimately acquired prospects by rigging the draft.

The Winter Soldier 12-23-2012 11:25 AM

A good explanation of possible draft if no season
 
All we have to go on is how the NHL handled the lottery after the 2004-05 season was canceled. All 30 clubs were given a chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, but the lottery was weighted for the clubs that had struggled in recent seasons. Three balls were given to all 30 clubs (90), and one ball was taken away from each time a club made the Stanley Cup playoffs in the previous three seasons and each time a club had earned the No. 1 overall pick in the previous four seasons. No team could have less than one ball.

Here's what the numbers would look like under that scenario.

There would be a total of 50 balls in the hopper and the Blue Jackets would have five of them, two more than anybody else in the league. Five balls? Yes. The Blue Jackets have all three of their own -- no playoffs, no No. 1 overall picks -- plus the first-round pick of the New York Rangers (Rick Nash trade) and Los Angeles Kings (Jeff Carter trade). That's a 10 percent shot at winning the No. 1 overall pick, something the Jackets -- despite their struggles -- have never won.

Six clubs would have three balls: Calgary, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg.

Six clubs would have two balls: Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, NY Islanders, St. Louis, Tampa Bay

joepeps 12-23-2012 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interactif (Post 56758863)
All we have to go on is how the NHL handled the lottery after the 2004-05 season was canceled. All 30 clubs were given a chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, but the lottery was weighted for the clubs that had struggled in recent seasons. Three balls were given to all 30 clubs (90), and one ball was taken away from each time a club made the Stanley Cup playoffs in the previous three seasons and each time a club had earned the No. 1 overall pick in the previous four seasons. No team could have less than one ball.

Here's what the numbers would look like under that scenario.

There would be a total of 50 balls in the hopper and the Blue Jackets would have five of them, two more than anybody else in the league. Five balls? Yes. The Blue Jackets have all three of their own -- no playoffs, no No. 1 overall picks -- plus the first-round pick of the New York Rangers (Rick Nash trade) and Los Angeles Kings (Jeff Carter trade). That's a 10 percent shot at winning the No. 1 overall pick, something the Jackets -- despite their struggles -- have never won.

Six clubs would have three balls: Calgary, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg.

Six clubs would have two balls: Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, NY Islanders, St. Louis, Tampa Bay

Thats not how it works... Those picks would get moved to the following years... Every teams needs to have a first in the lottery. Just like last time... We didn't have a first I think but we still got a pick, or it might have been another team

Mystifo 12-23-2012 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eyeball11 (Post 56756977)
What would be the best young all Ontario team one could make?

OK I went with 27 and under (one exception was E. Staal at 28). Pretty good team aside from goaltending.

Neal - Stamkos - Giroux
Seguin - Tavares - Perry
Prust - E. Staal* - Simmonds
Clifford - J. Staal - Read

Pietrangelo - Doughty
Burns - Del Zotto
Fowler - Subban

Elliott
Murphy

Man Ontario can not create goalies at all...


On the draft note. If we have a draft we will pick anywhere from 1 and 30.

The Winter Soldier 12-23-2012 11:53 AM

Here is how the 2005 draft worked, we can expect the same in 2013 if there is no season.

Quote:

The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent. These clubs were the Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers.

Ten clubs met one of the seven criteria listed above and had a 4.2% chance of winning the Drawing, while the remaining 16 clubs met more than one of the criteria and had a 2.1% chance.

Forty-eight balls, numbered one through 48, were placed in a lottery machine. Three ball numbers were randomly assigned to each the Penguins, Sabres, Blue Jackets and Rangers; two ball numbers were assigned to the 10 clubs with a 4.2% chance; and one ball number was assigned to the 16 clubs with a 2.1% chance. The first ball expelled determined the winner of the first overall draft pick and it had been assigned to the Penguins.

After the first overall selection was awarded, another ball was expelled to determine which club, from among the 29 remaining, received the second overall pick. This process was continued until each of the 30 first-round draft positions was assigned.

Evileye 12-23-2012 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Interactif (Post 56759293)
Here is how the 2005 draft worked, we can expect the same in 2013 if there is no season.

That's how we were TOLD it worked...

If it comes down to a lottery again, MLSE should 'remind' Bettman how loyal they were during this whole mess. They have paid more in lost hockey revenue than any other team therefore deserve something in return. (ie guaranteed top 5 pick)
A lost season doesn't suddenly make every organization equal, so not everyone should have a shot at number 1. However the draft shouldn't be based on only the last season either, but a total of the last 3 would be good. With the added caveat of no top 5 lottery pick if you already had a 1st or made the playoffs in the last 3 years.
In other words, only the current weaker teams get top 5 pick, like it should be.

Bomber0104 12-23-2012 12:28 PM

Bettman will rig the draft for all of the teams he is looking to bailout with this player shakedown.

The Leafs stand no chance.

The Winter Soldier 12-23-2012 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evileye (Post 56760035)
That's how we were TOLD it worked...

If it comes down to a lottery again, MLSE should 'remind' Bettman how loyal they were during this whole mess. They have paid more in lost hockey revenue than any other team therefore deserve something in return. (ie guaranteed top 5 pick)
A lost season doesn't suddenly make every organization equal, so not everyone should have a shot at number 1. However the draft shouldn't be based on only the last season either, but a total of the last 3 would be good. With the added caveat of no top 5 lottery pick if you already had a 1st or made the playoffs in the last 3 years.
In other words, only the current weaker teams get top 5 pick, like it should be.

Still I don't like it, for how many years this franchise has stunk, we should have no worse than the 3rd best chance at landing the 1st pick. 6.2% is not a good %. Shafted again.

Leafs For Life* 12-23-2012 02:03 PM

IMO, this is how the draft should work.
1-6 is one set of picks. The team's that have 3 balls, are put into a draw and picked in order. Thus, you don't have the contenders getting the best talent. Next, 7-12 is the next set of picks. The teams with 2 balls are put by theirselves into a draw. Those picks are given to the bubble teams that need some good talent to actually contend, but don't need the top end talent. The rest of the picks, given to the ones with 1 ball, are put into a draw and drawn.
With this, the Leafs would have a 16.666666667% chance of getting 1st overall.
Although, with Bettman's way and if full out UFA happens, expect it not to be a snake draft and for the Leafs to pick 30.

Jacob8hockey* 12-23-2012 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bomber0104 (Post 56760205)
Bettman will rig the draft for all of the teams he is looking to bailout with this player shakedown.

The Leafs stand no chance.

Tbh, if Bettman were to rig the draft it would probably make the most sense for him to rig us to win it. Think of how much better the Leafs would be with Mackinnon. WE draft him, he becomes our top center, we make the playoffs. The amount of money from the playoffs, bandwagonners, and everything else would probably be more profitable then saving a like Columbus.

Bomber0104 12-23-2012 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeafsJacob8 (Post 56763987)
Tbh, if Bettman were to rig the draft it would probably make the most sense for him to rig us to win it. Think of how much better the Leafs would be with Mackinnon. WE draft him, he becomes our top center, we make the playoffs. The amount of money from the playoffs, bandwagonners, and everything else would probably be more profitable then saving a like Columbus.

Not for the long-term strategic interests of the league it isn't. Short-term vs. long-term profits.

Bettman wants to spread the game to the United States and having Toronto taking up valuable playoff spots every year does nothing to help that goal.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instanc...x/27654290.jpg

teddygmr 12-23-2012 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leaffan16 (Post 56762805)
IMO, this is how the draft should work.
1-6 is one set of picks. The team's that have 3 balls, are put into a draw and picked in order. Thus, you don't have the contenders getting the best talent. Next, 7-12 is the next set of picks. The teams with 2 balls are put by theirselves into a draw. Those picks are given to the bubble teams that need some good talent to actually contend, but don't need the top end talent. The rest of the picks, given to the ones with 1 ball, are put into a draw and drawn.
With this, the Leafs would have a 16.666666667% chance of getting 1st overall.
Although, with Bettman's way and if full out UFA happens, expect it not to be a snake draft and for the Leafs to pick 30.

Actually, I believe this makes the most sense and I really hope they do it this way!
However, with that puke bettman involved, I dont think it will.


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