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-   -   Speculation: Amnesty buyout candidates and its implicatons (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1315233)

4evaBlue 01-03-2013 06:56 AM

Amnesty buyout candidates and its implicatons
 
I haven't been able to find full details of the amnesty buyout program, so I'll be using some assumptions along the way.

What we do know:
  • Each team will be able to drop two player off their cap, as long as the contract was signed during the 2005 CBA.
  • The team is still responsible for paying that player for the remainder of the contract, it just won't show up on their cap.
  • The amnesty buyout still comes out of the PA's share.
  • The player will be placed on waivers, allowing other teams to submit contract offers to his agent.
  • Should a contract be accepted with a new team, his original team only has to pay the player for the difference between the two contracts (let's call this amnesty portion).

Assumption:
  • The amnesty portion should reduce the cap ceiling for every team across the league. I.E: Let's assume Gomez gets "buried" with his $7.3M contract for the last year of his contract, and no other team offers him a new contract. His cap hit of $7.3M would lower the player's share by $7.3M, and it should result in a cap reduction of $7.3M/30 = $243k for each team. Does this make sense?
  • These buyouts can only occur for a short period during June, 2013, and cannot be "saved" for B. Richards' twilight years.

Implications:
  • Since the team is still on the hook for the player's contract, I don't see this doing much for the poorer teams, unless the player gets another contract to ease the financial sting for the original team. NYI buying out the DiPietro's contract will do nothing for them, as I don't see many teams lining up for his services.
  • There may be a few serviceable players getting waived, for whom the Leafs could submit competing offers within the framework of the new CBA. Luongo, Bryzgalov, Lecavalier, etc
  • Some teams may be forced to use their amnesty buyout to get under the $60M cap for next season. It's the only reason I see for the Habs not wanting to suck up the last year of Gomez's $7.3M caphit.
  • Teams who have the financial backing to pay some of these contracts outside of the cap could potentially trade for some of these bad contracts, and use their amnesty on them, in return for draft picks/other assets

Team# players signed for '13-'14'13-'14 cap hitNotables not signed for '13-'14Amnesty Candidates
Habs16$60.2MSubbanGomez (1x$7.3M), Kaberle (1x$4.25M)
Bolts15$57.5M Lecavalier (7x$7.7M), Malone (2x$4.5M)
Flyers16$57.4MTimonenPronger (4x$4.9M), Bryzgalov (7x$5.6M), Briere (2x$6.5M)
Bruins16$57.3MRask, Horton, Ference--
Hawks17$57.2M Frolik (1x$2.3M), Montador (2x$2.7M)
Canucks13$55.4MEdlerLuongo (8x$5.3M), Ballard (2x$4.2M)
Sharks14$54.3MClowe--
Pens15$52.6M Martin (2x$5M)
Rangers16$51.8MMcDonagh, StepanRedden (1x$6.5M)
Wilds16$51.1MBackstromHeatley? (1x$7.5M)
Canes15$50.7M --
Sabres14$49.6MHodgson, Regehr, LeopoldLeino (4x$4.5M)
Kings13$49.4MGagne, Penner--
Avs19$49.3MHejdukJones (3x$4M)
Oilers14$48.5MGagnerHorcoff (2x$5.5M)
Flames14$47.9MIginlaStajan (1x$3.5M), Wideman (4x$5.2M)
Preds13$45.4MHornqvist--
Wings15$45.1MHoward, Filppula--
Caps12$44.8M Ward (2x$3M)
Blue Jackets14$42.9M --
Panthers13$41.9MTheodore, WeissJovanovski (2x$4.1M), Campbell (3x$7.1M)
Leafs13$41.5MLupulKomisarek? (1x$4.5M)
Sens13$39MAlfredsson--
Stars14$34.1MBenn, Ryder, Roy, Morrow--
Jets9$33MBogosian, Wheeler, Little--
Yotes10$33MKorpikoski 
Ducks12$32.8MGetzlaf, Perry, Selanne, KoivuSouray (2x$3.6M), Cogliano (1x$2.4M)
Devils13$32.4MElias, Zajac, Henrique, Zubrus, Clarkson, ZidlickyVolchenkov? (3x$4.25M)
Blues12$32.1MMcDonald, D'Agostini, Berglund, Stewart, Pietrangelo--
Isles12$31.5MBailey, Visnovsky, Streit, HamonicDiPietro (8x$4.5M)

Obviously, the welfare / non-cap ceiling teams are in the best position. Chances are, they won't start spending to the cap all of a sudden, so they won't be able to use the new CBA to their advantage (other than making use of the lowered cap floor). The Habs, Flyers, Hawks, Bruins, Canucks, Bolts, and Sharks are in serious trouble. The Leafs, Sens and Jets are in decent position to cash in on some other team's misfortunes.

Any other candidates you guys can think of? Any of them Burke should be going after should they be amnestied? If so, how much would you offer them?

ULF_55 01-03-2013 07:02 AM

Nice chart.

Shows which teams have the most cap space for UFA's.

Leafs are one of the teams in better condition, but hardly along in that regard.

With more revenue sharing more teams are going to have opportunities to sign players.

Cool Hand Luke 01-03-2013 07:23 AM

From that list, if I'm the Leafs, I would target Volchenkov. Offer him 3.0 mil per year, NJ is only on the hook for 1.5. He would be the perfect replacement for Komisarek once we amnesty him.

tmlfan98 01-03-2013 07:28 AM

IMO Komi is the only candidate

Anthrax442 01-03-2013 08:55 AM

I wonder if Lecavalier would be a good fit at 4 mil or smtn.

PugFugly 01-03-2013 09:25 AM

Looks good, nice job.

Just a heads up, it looks like you mixed up Buffalo and Chicago with the Notables not signed for '13-'14.

4evaBlue 01-03-2013 09:37 AM

WRT Volchenkov, the only reason I included him on the list is, from what I gather, he didn't have a great showing in Jersey last season. If he stinks it up again for this partial season, he could very well be a candidate. If he returns to his form in Ottawa, I expect the Devils to want to hold onto him.

As for Komi, yes, he's the obvious choice. My question is, is it really worth burning the amnesty for one season of $4.5M if his contract will not prevent us from obtaining anyone? How would people feel about trading for DiPietro's contract (and then amnesty him) to get them off the Isles' books for some compensation? What would the compensation have to be in order to consider such a move?

ULF_55 01-03-2013 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4evaBlue (Post 57059189)
WRT Volchenkov, the only reason I included him on the list is, from what I gather, he didn't have a great showing in Jersey last season. If he stinks it up again for this partial season, he could very well be a candidate. If he returns to his form in Ottawa, I expect the Devils to want to hold onto him.

As for Komi, yes, he's the obvious choice. My question is, is it really worth burning the amnesty for one season of $4.5M if his contract will not prevent us from obtaining anyone? How would people feel about trading for DiPietro's contract (and then amnesty him) to get them off the Isles' books for some compensation? What would the compensation have to be in order to consider such a move?

You are assuming that you will be able to trade and buy-out?

I'm betting the rules won't allow that.

Komisarek seems like the likely player to be bought out for the Leafs.

caribouPINE 01-03-2013 09:50 AM

With there being 2 amnesty buyouts (apparently) in the next CBA it really sucks we bought out Armstrong this past summer and have his $1M count against the cap for 2 seasons (though I guess it won't matter in the first season).

He would have been an ideal candidate. He and Komisarek.

Connolly/Lombardi don't matter because they are UFA's in a few months anyways.

Pinchy 01-03-2013 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthrax442 (Post 57057591)
I wonder if Lecavalier would be a good fit at 4 mil or smtn.

We wouldn't have to sign him for 7 years, right?

I'd give lecavalier $5 mil for 3 years, no problem...

Pyrophorus 01-03-2013 11:05 AM

Is the cap going to be $60M?

I thought Bettman was sooo gung-ho about the CBA being whole,
and this is a part, and its seemed (at this point) signed in quicksand.

Michael Gary Scott 01-03-2013 11:13 AM

Wonder if leafs trade for longo then buy him out to resign him.

WTFMAN99 01-03-2013 11:26 AM

I would lose Lambo and Komisarek...

Guy Boucher 01-03-2013 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Gary Scott (Post 57062969)
Wonder if leafs trade for longo then buy him out to resign him.

You can't sign someone you've just bought out.

Schenn 01-03-2013 11:37 AM

I swear I heard Lebrun say on SC this morning that in the current deal there is 2 amnesty buyouts per team, not just one.

Anthrax442 01-03-2013 11:40 AM

Why the fudge would we buy out a player who has half a season on the books?

How about this: Team X has a player they need to get rid of, but don't want to spend the money. They trade player to us + asset, we buy him out and keep the asset.

Lombo and Connolly will be gone next season anyway.

ULF_55 01-03-2013 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schenn (Post 57064007)
I swear I heard Lebrun say on SC this morning that in the current deal there is 2 amnesty buyouts per team, not just one.

Yes, that is a change.

The trouble is the buy-out money comes from the players share of HRR-AE, reducing money available for the Cap.

Anthrax442 01-03-2013 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinchy (Post 57061239)
We wouldn't have to sign him for 7 years, right?

I'd give lecavalier $5 mil for 3 years, no problem...

Burke still wouldn't sign for over 5 years. :handclap:

Schenn 01-03-2013 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinchy (Post 57061239)
We wouldn't have to sign him for 7 years, right?

I'd give lecavalier $5 mil for 3 years, no problem...

Contract length limit is 5-6 years. ;)

LEAFANFORLIFE23 01-03-2013 11:53 AM

i'd love some brian campbell if the panthers bought him out

ULF_55 01-03-2013 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 (Post 57064741)
i'd love some brian campbell if the panthers bought him out

Maybe pair him with Liles and have the all out attack defense.

Wait, they fired Wilson.

Never mind...

LEAFANFORLIFE23 01-03-2013 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ULF_55 (Post 57064837)
Maybe pair him with Liles and have the all out attack defense.

Wait, they fired Wilson.

Never mind...

pair him on the PP with dion

achtungbaby 01-03-2013 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Gary Scott (Post 57062969)
Wonder if leafs trade for longo then buy him out to resign him.

I don't believe you'll be able to trade for a player and then buy them out. I'm also certain you can't buy a player out and then resign them.

Mess 01-03-2013 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ULF_55 (Post 57054679)
Nice chart.

Shows which teams have the most cap space for UFA's.

Leafs are one of the teams in better condition, but hardly along in that regard.

With more revenue sharing more teams are going to have opportunities to sign players.

A team like Detroit with only $45 mil before any amnesty buyouts and $15 mil in cap space with a perennial contender will be at the top of the list as suitors for players.

Corey Perry and others playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg as his center would be really enticing and close to home for example.

Vancouver resolving their cap situation of a Luongo trade to Toronto seems rather obvious for both teams.

Mess 01-03-2013 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by achtungbaby (Post 57065503)
I don't believe you'll be able to trade for a player and then buy them out. I'm also certain you can't buy a player out and then resign them.

No problem trading and buying out a player .. ie Nashville did it in the Lombardi/Franson deal for Brett Lebda

You're correct however that you can't re-sign a bought-out player in the same season in which you bought him out.


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