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 Buffalo87 01-03-2013 10:24 AM

Bills Off-Season 2013 Style (Wilson, Barnett, McGee released, T Jackson re-signed)

This is a great article from a couple months ago on Chip Kelly and his numbers-based methodologies.

http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-...revolution-nfl

Quote:
 This is how and why Chip Kelly will modernize the game in the same way that Billy Beane's triumphs showed baseball executives that getting on base is more important than batting average. Soon enough Kelly will take over an NFL team. (A national championship is possible this season, but those Bama boys are a different breed and that Saban fella is a pretty incredible coach in his own right.) Whenever Kelly does enter the league, he'll play the game aggressively, with "aggressively" meaning in a mathematically logical fashion. By the end of the season every coach will be going for it on fourth down, attempting fake punts, fake field goals, two-point conversions, and they'll likely do all of this oblivious to the fact that there's astounding mathematical evidence supporting the decisions they're making.
I just ranted on this topic on Twitter, I apologize for any of you who follow me.

It is so frustrating to watch coach after coach around the league make decisions that are just flat out dumb. It's a league right now where decisions are based in risk-aversion rather than what's actually best for the outcome of the game, though (obviously) most have no idea that's the case.

Case in point, the article says how their complex statistical model says that not only is it dumb to kick a field goal on 4th and short from the 20, it's ludicrous. Yet Chan Gailey tells us he punted twice from the 34 yard line on 4th and short in the final few games because he was "playing the percentages".

How is it taking so long for these numbers to start creeping into the game. The evidence is overwhelming, and it's right in front of their faced unless they are actively trying to avoid it.

I would love to see a coach in Buffalo that embraces this side of the game. It doesn't have to be revolutionary or extreme, but like this article says, Belicheck and Sean Payton seem to have a firm grasp on these numbers and use it in their decision making. I want a guy like that, that's at least willing to employ some of these philosophies.

I understand to a certain extent why a coach would be hesitent, because in the world of the NFL, if you fail with an unconventional method, you're going to be fired in a heartbeat, it makes it easy. That's why it will take sweeping changes, and an organization that really embraces this change rather than simply one coach.

 New Sabres Captain 01-03-2013 10:56 AM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Buffalo87 (Post 57061071) This is a great article from a couple months ago on Chip Kelly and his numbers-based methodologies. http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-...revolution-nfl I just ranted on this topic on Twitter, I apologize for any of you who follow me. It is so frustrating to watch coach after coach around the league make decisions that are just flat out dumb. It's a league right now where decisions are based in risk-aversion rather than what's actually best for the outcome of the game, though (obviously) most have no idea that's the case. Case in point, the article says how their complex statistical model says that not only is it dumb to kick a field goal on 4th and short from the 20, it's ludicrous. Yet Chan Gailey tells us he punted twice from the 34 yard line on 4th and short in the final few games because he was "playing the percentages". How is it taking so long for these numbers to start creeping into the game. The evidence is overwhelming, and it's right in front of their faced unless they are actively trying to avoid it. I would love to see a coach in Buffalo that embraces this side of the game. It doesn't have to be revolutionary or extreme, but like this article says, Belicheck and Sean Payton seem to have a firm grasp on these numbers and use it in their decision making. I want a guy like that, that's at least willing to employ some of these philosophies. I understand to a certain extent why a coach would be hesitent, because in the world of the NFL, if you fail with an unconventional method, you're going to be fired in a heartbeat, it makes it easy. That's why it will take sweeping changes, and an organization that really embraces this change rather than simply one coach.
Brandon said he was adding an analytics department, so that would be the organization embracing that change one would think.

I like that mindset, but I just have an uneasy feeling about Kelly personally...dunno why, but I just can't shake the feeling that he's going to bust in the NFL.

 Buffalo87 01-03-2013 11:04 AM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs (Post 57062315) Brandon said he was adding an analytics department, so that would be the organization embracing that change one would think. I like that mindset, but I just have an uneasy feeling about Kelly personally...dunno why, but I just can't shake the feeling that he's going to bust in the NFL.
I know but I'm guessing a lot of other teams have some kind of analytics department too. But it doesn't appear any one team has really fully embraced it top to bottom yet. I would love to see Buffalo be the one to do that.

I'm not completely sold on Kelly either.

 La Cosa Nostra 01-03-2013 12:41 PM

Lovie Smith or Chip Kelly, I'll be happy with either of the two. If it's anyone else, OBD won't get a penny from me ever again.

 Myllz 01-03-2013 01:20 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Layne Staley (Post 57066625) Lovie Smith or Chip Kelly, I'll be happy with either of the two. If it's anyone else, OBD won't get a penny from me ever again.
Those are the only two I want, as well. Unless OBD does something crazy like pulls Gruden out of the broadcast booth.

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 05:11 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Myllz (Post 57068181) Those are the only two I want, as well. Unless OBD does something crazy like pulls Gruden out of the broadcast booth.
RB is chummy with Chuckie but I hear Chuckie wants too much control.

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 05:12 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs (Post 57059585) I'm intrigued, but I don't see it as a viable option, mostly because if you are a successful coach at Notre Dame, you are set for life...there's no reason for Brian Kelly to leave...ever. Offseason #54: 55th time's the charm!!
Charm for what???

 La Cosa Nostra 01-03-2013 06:28 PM

Knowing the Bills I can almost guarantee Ken Whisenhunt will be named coach. He's a "Pittsburgh" guy and friends with Doug Whaley. :rolleyes: it's pathetic we are enamored with a bum coach who got fired from the ARIZONA CARDINALS :facepalm:

Last time I checked, Tom Donahoe, Mike Mularkey and Chan Gailey were all Pittsburgh guys too :shakehead

Besides Chip and Lovie, I could live with Mike McCoy (Denver OC) being named coach also. Doug Marrone too but I don't see him leaving SU so soon.

 Old Navy Goat 01-03-2013 07:27 PM

While you're at it, isn't Whatley a Pittsburgh guy also

 dma0034 01-03-2013 07:31 PM

I'm not as big on Chip Kelly as everyone else is. Would like to see Lovie Smith or Mike Holmgren (but it will probably be the Wiz)

 La Cosa Nostra 01-03-2013 08:04 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Old Navy Goat (Post 57081541) While you're at it, isn't Whatley a Pittsburgh guy also
Yes Whaley is.That's why the first 2 people we interview are Horton and Whisenhunt.All 3 were in Pittsburgh together.We need to stop with the good ol boy system and look outside of the box.I don't want to hire Wiz or Horton because he is friends with Whaley.Bring in a proven winner (head coach), not a proven winner "assistant".That dumb quote that Whaley said where he and Wiz "won" a few Super Bowls together made me shake my head.Wiz was an OC, he was hardly the reason why the Steelers won the 2 Super Bowls.

 New Sabres Captain 01-03-2013 08:57 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Layne Staley (Post 57079427) Knowing the Bills I can almost guarantee Ken Whisenhunt will be named coach. He's a "Pittsburgh" guy and friends with Doug Whaley. :rolleyes: it's pathetic we are enamored with a bum coach who got fired from the ARIZONA CARDINALS :facepalm: Last time I checked, Tom Donahoe, Mike Mularkey and Chan Gailey were all Pittsburgh guys too :shakehead Besides Chip and Lovie, I could live with Mike McCoy (Denver OC) being named coach also. Doug Marrone too but I don't see him leaving SU so soon.
Yeah, I don't want Whisenhunt. I'm warming up to Horton. I don't know enough about McCoy or Marrone to really know one way pr the other. But I don't want Chip because I just think he'll be a pro flop.

WGR suggested that Hue Jackson was a name being linked to the Bills. It also suggested that he has a good relationship with Lovie Smith...so Smith with Jackson at OC would be probably my favorite scenario at this point (Jackson is right now the Bengals secondary coach, so no doubt he would take an OC job to get back to the offensive side).

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 09:02 PM

Time to ditrch the loser mentality?

http://wgr550.com/pages/15183793.php...entId=12127659

White is kind of a tool....

I feel like it needs to be earned. They have showed me nothing yet.

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 09:03 PM

Job is Whisenhunt's if he wants it:

Quote:
 Chris Trapasso@ChrisTrapasso Can confirm: Buffalo #Bills head coaching job is Ken Whisenhunt's if he wants it. 2:32 a.m. Fri, Jan 4

 New Sabres Captain 01-03-2013 09:08 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat (Post 57084279) Job is Whisenhunt's if he wants it: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisTrap...23602921005056
Worst fears...they'd fall in love with one guy and not do a thorough search. I mean...at least listen to what Lovie Smith has to say!

And of course they pick the worst option to fall in love with... :shakehead

So...3 years from now, who we looking at for coaches? :laugh:

 struckbyaparkedcar 01-03-2013 09:09 PM

Ah yes, el declaracion de las graderias. The most trusted source in sports journalism.

 Sabreality 01-03-2013 09:11 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat (Post 57084279) Job is Whisenhunt's if he wants it: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisTrap...23602921005056
and who is this guy?

 La Cosa Nostra 01-03-2013 09:16 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat (Post 57084279) Job is Whisenhunt's if he wants it: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisTrap...23602921005056
He "writes" for Bleacher Report and is from Buffalo. I doubt he has any inside source just speculating due to Wiz possibly getting a 2nd interview. That being said I am ****ing done with this team if this turns out true. We interview 2 people so far (one black for the rooney rule) and we are already giving Wiz the job? And Brandon said with a straight face the search would leave no stone unturned? We have to be the worst ****ing disgrace of a franchise. I pray to god when the team gets sold that it is to someone who A. Will keep team in Buffalo and B. Absolutely clean house and fire every one of these vile snakes. Get Russ Brandon, Jeff Littman, Overdorf and everyone else who has been holding this team back the hell out of here. Ralph sell the team please.

Russ Brandon; from selling tickets to Marlins games in Florida to running an NFL franchise ... And you wonder why we haven't made the playoffs this millennium and that barely anyone wants to come here.

 New Sabres Captain 01-03-2013 09:19 PM

Quote:
 Tim Graham ‏@ByTimGraham Still hearing Ken Whisenhunt the favorite in Bills search, but interviews can change everything. Ask Mike Tomlin.

Graham probably just hedging his bets with the interview line...but it certainly looks like they like Whisenhunt a lot. Please, please, please Lovie Smith change their minds...

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 09:42 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sabreality (Post 57084499) and who is this guy?
No idea, was on the Bills board...but why the hell does it say Friday, Jan 4th? Wheres his locale?

 Sports Enthusiast 01-03-2013 09:44 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Layne Staley (Post 57084569) He "writes" for Bleacher Report and is from Buffalo. I doubt he has any inside source just speculating due to Wiz possibly getting a 2nd interview. That being said I am ****ing done with this team if this turns out true. We interview 2 people so far (one black for the rooney rule) and we are already giving Wiz the job? And Brandon said with a straight face the search would leave no stone unturned? We have to be the worst ****ing disgrace of a franchise. I pray to god when the team gets sold that it is to someone who A. Will keep team in Buffalo and B. Absolutely clean house and fire every one of these vile snakes. Get Russ Brandon, Jeff Littman, Overdorf and everyone else who has been holding this team back the hell out of here. Ralph sell the team please. Russ Brandon; from selling tickets to Marlins games in Florida to running an NFL franchise ... And you wonder why we haven't made the playoffs this millennium and that barely anyone wants to come here.
You forced a point out of me to be raised. Why did Ralph not sell the team? Why did he only remove himself from operations?

 Takeo 01-03-2013 10:07 PM

Not exactly a shock that Whisenhunt would be the top candidate with only 2 of at least 5 interviews completed. The way this stuff is massaged to feign a breaking report is too funny.

 La Cosa Nostra 01-03-2013 10:07 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BK Triple Threat (Post 57085279) You forced a point out of me to be raised. Why did Ralph not sell the team? Why did he only remove himself from operations?
Ralph has repeatedly refused to sell the team while he is alive. Why? No idea, considering his family already said they have no interest in keeping the team after he passes. You would think Ralph would do what is best long term for the team but it isn't the case.

 Myllz 01-03-2013 10:49 PM

Chip and Orgeon wins the Fiesta Bowl. Let the interviews begin!

 CraniumCram 01-03-2013 11:30 PM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Layne Staley (Post 57085849) Ralph has repeatedly refused to sell the team while he is alive. Why? No idea, considering his family already said they have no interest in keeping the team after he passes. You would think Ralph would do what is best long term for the team but it isn't the case.
IIRC, it's because his family will pay fewer taxes if they sell it after he passes, could be wrong though.

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