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-   -   Speculation: Luongo: The Neverending Story (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1315851)

spiny norman 01-04-2013 11:49 AM

Luongo: The Neverending Story
 
Carry on.

Previous thread here.

Continuing from the previous all-encompassing Luongo threads:

-----

Just so everyone is clear, if you get the following in this thread:

Warning = threadban
Infraction = forumban starting at 1 month


-----

I'm keeping a eye on this thread and will continue on the subsequent ones.

This thread is here to allow everyone to debate the merits of the various Luongo proposals that are presented.

All I ask is for everyone to please be respectful and civil to each other, and to refrain from making things personal.

Thank you.

racerjoe 01-04-2013 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ;57097747
Carry on.
t's a massive gamble to assume that either of Kassian or Schreoder can step into a top 6 role immediately, as without Higgins, you'd missing that.

Although Weise and Volpati were on the team last year, they saw very limited minutes and games. Both averaged less than 9 minutes a game of ice time. Volpatti played in only 23 games. To know rely on both players to play an expanded role in 82 games would be a big step down.

Although you may not have been signing Manny or Raymond anyways, you have to admit they both bring talents to the game, despite their flaws. You'd be much better off having extra money to bring in similar bonifide NHLers than hoping players like Volpatti, Weise, etc.. can somehow expand their roles and pick up the slack.

Schreoder will be the 3C this season, and Kassian will be on the big club this season as well, so we will know more as the season goes. Volpati had a season ending injury at the beginning of the season, so do not read into games played, as for minutes, they our 4th line players, how much do you play your fourth line?

I like Manny, and think he will have a bounce back season, as he will be in shape this season after missing training the year before. But every team does it, at some point you have to let your young guns play.

I definitely have more faith in Raymond than most around here, having said that his style of play is starting to not fit with what we are trying to do. skill wise we will miss him, but not fit wise.

The bottom line is you are making it out to be much worse than it is, and this is also all worst case.

Look at it this way, what if I went worst case for the leafs, you don't get a goalie, but your offense carries you too another 9th place finish in a short season, you pick 14th, miss out on a 1C for the future, and there is no goalies available in FA. Burke gets fired for missing the playoffs again, and your new GM comes in and starts a fire sale, and you have to wait another 5 years plus for a shot at the playoffs.

Is that likely? Nope. But it is probably worst case.

blankall 01-04-2013 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by racerjoe (Post 57098155)
Schreoder will be the 3C this season, and Kassian will be on the big club this season as well, so we will know more as the season goes. Volpati had a season ending injury at the beginning of the season, so do not read into games played, as for minutes, they our 4th line players, how much do you play your fourth line?

I like Manny, and think he will have a bounce back season, as he will be in shape this season after missing training the year before. But every team does it, at some point you have to let your young guns play.

I definitely have more faith in Raymond than most around here, having said that his style of play is starting to not fit with what we are trying to do. skill wise we will miss him, but not fit wise.

The bottom line is you are making it out to be much worse than it is, and this is also all worst case.

Look at it this way, what if I went worst case for the leafs, you don't get a goalie, but your offense carries you too another 9th place finish in a short season, you pick 14th, miss out on a 1C for the future, and there is no goalies available in FA. Burke gets fired for missing the playoffs again, and your new GM comes in and starts a fire sale, and you have to wait another 5 years plus for a shot at the playoffs.

Is that likely? Nope. But it is probably worst case.

That scenario is not going to happen for the Leafs. The Leafs are not in "win now" mode. It would be a huge gamble for them to take Luongo's contract in the first place, yet alone give up top prospects and/or 1st round picks to do so.

Luongo also does not guarantee a playoff appearance, let alone a cup run.

If the Leafs decide that their current goalies are not developing, they'd be better off throwing a big contract at a UFA goalie. In 2013 alone, we have the following goalies becomming UFAS:

Backstrom, Thomas, Nabokov, Smith, Howard, and Theodore.

In 2014 you have: Lundqvist, Kipprusoff, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokuon, etc..

Basically, my point is for a rebuilding team with big pockets, you have a lot of options and no need to make a rash or immediate decision. Toronto continues to take flack for trading away 1st rounders in the Kessel deal, I just don't see it happening again.

Bleach Clean 01-04-2013 12:34 PM

Quote:

He adopts a stance based on the "new CBA" which doesn't exist yet. I didn't even consider he would've meant something other than the NHL's proposals with a lowered cap and an amnesty buyout clause so I apologize if that wasn't your interpretation. What did you think he was talking about?



He cites the new CBA, in all its permutations. That's all I took it to mean. It's just a dubious prediction from the outset because even if you assume the most restrictive environment, Luongo is still highly unlikely to be bought out. So what is the worth in such a prediction?



SC doesn't state it's a possibility, he predicts it will happen. Meaning, He has evaluated the information and drawn a conclusion. This is not entertaining a concept with balance, and postulating on an outcome given conditions, this is an outright expectation based on nothing.




Quote:

Anyways, on to the hypothetical. The scenario is that due to a proposed $60M cap and the two amnesty buyout clause, Luongo's value plummets and makes trading any salary difficult because most teams without a budget. If this happens does it then make sense for Vancouver worsen the rest of the team via buyout vs buying out Luongo when you have Schneider?

Are you thinking you would make the forward group worse and try to trade Luongo a year or two down the road?



It wouldn't even get to that point, so the point is moot really. But purely on hypothetical, yes I would make the forward group worse and trade Luongo a year down the road. The acquisition cost of getting a player like Booth on the open market in the future is a lot less than it would be to acquire a player the calibre of Luongo would be.

Bleach Clean 01-04-2013 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57098793)
That scenario is not going to happen for the Leafs. The Leafs are not in "win now" mode. It would be a huge gamble for them to take Luongo's contract in the first place, yet alone give up top prospects and/or 1st round picks to do so.

Luongo also does not guarantee a playoff appearance, let alone a cup run.

If the Leafs decide that their current goalies are not developing, they'd be better off throwing a big contract at a UFA goalie. In 2013 alone, we have the following goalies becomming UFAS:

Backstrom, Thomas, Nabokov, Smith, Howard, and Theodore.

In 2014 you have: Lundqvist, Kipprusoff, Miller, Hiller, Halak, Vokuon, etc..

Basically, my point is for a rebuilding team with big pockets, you have a lot of options and no need to make a rash or immediate decision. Toronto continues to take flack for trading away 1st rounders in the Kessel deal, I just don't see it happening again.




Yet Burke keeps calling and he has made more than one offer?... Followed by the much talked about Shannon and Millard speculations. What do you think has brought this about?



In 2013, Howard and Smith are very unlikely to make it to UFA and the other goalies are stop gaps. If Burke wanted a stop gap, why did he pass on Vokoun?

blankall 01-04-2013 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099209)
Yet Burke keeps calling and he has made more than one offer?... Followed by the much talked about Shannon and Millard speculations. What do you think has brought this about?



In 2013, Howard and Smith are very unlikely to make it to UFA and the other goalies are stop gaps. If Burke wanted a stop gap, why did he pass on Vokoun?

Odd that you brought up Vokuon. He's a great example of what happens to a goalie's value as they age. A top end goalie who took a discount to be with a contender. He suffers a groin injury, gets displaced as the #1, and his value tanks.

Also, who said that Toronto ever had a chance of signing with him. Last year Vokuon took a discount to go to Washington. This year he went with Pittsburg. Vokuon obviously wants to play for a contender, which Toronto is not. Vokuon has been paid a lot of money over the last decade. That obviously is not his main consideration anymore. Vokuon also never made it to UFA status, so the Leafs never had the opportunity to bargain with him in any way.

Seatoo 01-04-2013 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57099493)
Odd that you brought up Vokuon. He's a great example of what happens to a goalie's value as they age. A top end goalie who took a discount to be with a contender. He suffers a groin injury, gets displaced as the #1, and his value tanks.

Also, who said that Toronto ever had a chance of signing with him. Last year Vokuon took a discount to go to Washington. This year he went with Pittsburg. Vokuon obviously wants to play for a contender, which Toronto is not. Vokuon has been paid a lot of money over the last decade. That obviously is not his main consideration anymore. Vokuon also never made it to UFA status, so the Leafs never had the opportunity to bargain with him in any way.

His bargaining rights were traded for a 7th rounder. Pretty sure TO (and everyone else) had a chance at that low of a price.

Bleach Clean 01-04-2013 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57099493)
Odd that you brought up Vokuon. He's a great example of what happens to a goalie's value as they age. A top end goalie who took a discount to be with a contender. He suffers a groin injury, gets displaced as the #1, and his value tanks.



You still haven't answered why Burke didn't go after Vokoun, and is going after Luongo?



Further, if Burke doesn't go after Vokoun, why does he wait until the 2013 offseason to go after other stop gaps like Nabokov, Theodore, Backstrom, Thomas (all due to age and short term deals)? None of Burke's actions are aligning with your perceptions here in these cases.


Quote:

Also, who said that Toronto ever had a chance of signing with him. Last year Vokuon took a discount to go to Washington. This year he went with Pittsburg. Vokuon obviously wants to play for a contender, which Toronto is not. Vokuon has been paid a lot of money over the last decade. That obviously is not his main consideration anymore. Vokuon also never made it to UFA status, so the Leafs never had the opportunity to bargain with him in any way.



They had the chance to bargain with him by trading a pick, like PIT did (a 7th rounder no less). I may be recalling this wrong, but it was rumoured that Burke balked at the notion. How could this be? Vokoun's motivations being his own, you would think Burke would at least try to negotiate with him if that's what _he_ wanted... correct?

Pepper 01-04-2013 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099209)
Yet Burke keeps calling and he has made more than one offer?... Followed by the much talked about Shannon and Millard speculations. What do you think has brought this about?

Burke has made more than one offer? Do we have any info what the offers included and who reported this?

Bleach Clean 01-04-2013 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pepper (Post 57099799)
Burke has made more than one offer? Do we have any info what the offers included and who reported this?


Yes we do, in prior threads. Have at em! :)

ACC1224 01-04-2013 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57099493)
Odd that you brought up Vokuon. He's a great example of what happens to a goalie's value as they age. A top end goalie who took a discount to be with a contender. He suffers a groin injury, gets displaced as the #1, and his value tanks.

Also, who said that Toronto ever had a chance of signing with him. Last year Vokuon took a discount to go to Washington. This year he went with Pittsburg. Vokuon obviously wants to play for a contender, which Toronto is not. Vokuon has been paid a lot of money over the last decade. That obviously is not his main consideration anymore. Vokuon also never made it to UFA status, so the Leafs never had the opportunity to bargain with him in any way.

I'm sure Burke spoke to Vokun's agent and realized there was no interest. No point in pursuing it further after that.

ACC1224 01-04-2013 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pepper (Post 57099799)
Burke has made more than one offer? Do we have any info what the offers included and who reported this?

I doubt very much he has made any offers.

blankall 01-04-2013 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099783)
You still haven't answered why Burke didn't go after Vokoun, and is going after Luongo?



Further, if Burke doesn't go after Vokoun, why does he wait until the 2013 offseason to go after other stop gaps like Nabokov, Theodore, Backstrom, Thomas (all due to age and short term deals)? None of Burke's actions are aligning with your perceptions here in these cases.





They had the chance to bargain with him by trading a pick, like PIT did (a 7th rounder no less). I may be recalling this wrong, but it was rumoured that Burke balked at the notion. How could this be? Vokoun's motivations being his own, you would think Burke would at least try to negotiate with him if that's what _he_ wanted... correct?

So basically, we've demonstrated that Toronto doesn't like to trade picks for veteran goaltending.

Liferleafer 01-04-2013 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099783)
You still haven't answered why Burke didn't go after Vokoun, and is going after Luongo?


Further, if Burke doesn't go after Vokoun, why does he wait until the 2013 offseason to go after other stop gaps like Nabokov, Theodore, Backstrom, Thomas (all due to age and short term deals)? None of Burke's actions are aligning with your perceptions here in these cases.







They had the chance to bargain with him by trading a pick, like PIT did (a 7th rounder no less). I may be recalling this wrong, but it was rumoured that Burke balked at the notion. How could this be? Vokoun's motivations being his own, you would think Burke would at least try to negotiate with him if that's what _he_ wanted... correct?

Because he thinks he can get him cheap. May not be reality....but, it's why he's calling about Luongo.

Bleach Clean 01-04-2013 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57100077)
So basically, we've demonstrated that Toronto doesn't like to trade picks for veteran goaltending.



Hahaha, yeah. Or maybe... he's not looking for a stop gap? Maybe? Kinda?



Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 57100093)
Because he thinks he can get him cheap. May not be reality....but, it's why he's calling about Luongo.



If he is thinking of getting him for cheap, why did he raise his offer? Why get in to the space of trying outbid anyone at all? Something's not adding up here LL...

Spazmatic Dan 01-04-2013 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099109)
He cites the new CBA, in all its permutations. That's all I took it to mean. It's just a dubious prediction from the outset because even if you assume the most restrictive environment, Luongo is still highly unlikely to be bought out. So what is the worth in such a prediction?



SC doesn't state it's a possibility, he predicts it will happen. Meaning, He has evaluated the information and drawn a conclusion. This is not entertaining a concept with balance, and postulating on an outcome given conditions, this is an outright expectation based on nothing.


Luongo is highly unlikely to be bought out based on you evaluating the information and drawing a conclusion? Sort of like what he did, but the opposite?

Sounds like a discussion with different points of view to me. Since we're talking about a situation in the future and don't even have all of the variables, its all postulating.

And no its not based on nothing. As you mentioned, its an evaluation and conclusion based on available information.

It's not something pulled out of left field like, say, Luongo will retire.



Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57099209)
Yet Burke keeps calling and he has made more than one offer?... Followed by the much talked about Shannon and Millard speculations. What do you think has brought this about?



In 2013, Howard and Smith are very unlikely to make it to UFA and the other goalies are stop gaps. If Burke wanted a stop gap, why did he pass on Vokoun?

Just curious, but when was it confirmed Burke has made an offer for Luongo? Burke obviously can't say anything because that's tampering, and I don't remember Gillis ever saying anything. Last I remember it was hearsay and speculation.

Also, how do you know Burke passed on Vokoun? Pittsburgh traded for him and signed him before he hit the market if I recall correctly.

To me, when Burke says "we believe in Reimer but we need help in goal" (paraphrasing), its him leaning more towards a stop gap solution than anything else. That is, of course, a theory.

The Newfoundlander 01-04-2013 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57100321)
Hahaha, yeah. Or maybe... he's not looking for a stop gap? Maybe? Kinda?







If he is thinking of getting him for cheap, why did he raise his offer? Why get in to the space of trying outbid anyone at all? Something's not adding up here LL...

Isn't Luongo a stop gap?

It's known Burke has inquired about Luongo, But lets get one thing straight, He's not going to pay a king's ransom to get him.

Liferleafer 01-04-2013 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bleach Clean (Post 57100321)
Hahaha, yeah. Or maybe... he's not looking for a stop gap? Maybe? Kinda?







If he is thinking of getting him for cheap, why did he raise his offer? Why get in to the space of trying outbid anyone at all? Something's not adding up here LL...

Ok, so i've got to ask (as you keep saying this), what do you think Burke's endgame is? You think he is just waiting and then he'll give Gillis his asking price? Why is it so hard for you to understand that Burke has a top price he's willing to pay, he isn't there yet (or maybe he is), but until someone shows more interest than he is (such was the case with EDM) he isn't going to go higher. Could it possibly be because Burke believes Luongo WILL be traded.....and so if he keeps his offer just above the closest one, chances are his offer will be accepted. NOW, maybe he is wrong and Gillis keeps Luongo....we'll see.

blankall 01-04-2013 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ACC1224 (Post 57099935)
I'm sure Burke spoke to Vokun's agent and realized there was no interest. No point in pursuing it further after that.

That's tampering...I doubt that happened for Vokoun.

ACC1224 01-04-2013 01:20 PM

Wouldn't Burke have to make an offer to raise it?

blankall 01-04-2013 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by weak5holeguy (Post 57100413)
Isn't Luongo a stop gap?

It's known Burke has inquired about Luongo, But lets get one thing straight, He's not going to pay a king's ransom to get him.

No, haven't you heard Luongo is guaranteed to be a top 5 talent for the next 5-6 years.

ACC1224 01-04-2013 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57100651)
That's tampering...I doubt that happened for Vokoun.

Not if he asked the Team if he could speak to the agent, happens all the time.

Liferleafer 01-04-2013 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ACC1224 (Post 57100669)
Wouldn't Burke have to make an offer to raise it?

In his defense, it was reported that Burke upped a previous offer when EDM put forth an offer. I'm horrible at posting links, but i believe it was Sportsnet.

ACC1224 01-04-2013 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Liferleafer (Post 57100733)
In his defense, it was reported that Burke upped a previous offer when EDM put forth an offer. I'm horrible at posting links, but i believe it was Sportsnet.

I don't put a lot of stock in what's "reported".

Seatoo 01-04-2013 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall (Post 57100651)
That's tampering...I doubt that happened for Vokoun.

Actually his agent was given permission to speak to teams in order to facilitate the trade. http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ca...rXDV_blog.html


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