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krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 01:01 AM

2014 Memorial Cup Location
 
I thought it might be worthwhile to start a thread to discuss who will bid on and who should be awarded the Memorial Cup. Talk has taken over the trade rumour thread, so hopefully we can have that conversation here. Having volunteered at the Memorial Cup (Mississauga 11) before, I have had a little bit of a glimpse into a winning presentation video. Here is my analysis, with some some things to consider:

Franchise Stability

Let's assume that North Bay will be out just because they'll have enough going on next season.

Historical Locations

This wasn't in the video, but the first thing to consider is who has hosted before. Since 1972, the following OHL cities have hosted The Memorial Cup:

Mississauga (11)
Kitchener (08), (84), (75)
London (05)
Guelph (02)
Ottawa (99), (72)
Peterborough (96)
Sault Ste Marie (93), (78 - with Sudbury)
Hamilton (90)
Oshawa (87)
Windsor (81)
Sudbury (78 - with SSM)

The following current OHL teams have never hosted the Memorial Cup:

Barrie, Belleville, Brampton/North Bay, Erie, Kingston, Owen Sound, Plymouth, Saginaw, and Sarnia.

I think it is safe to assume that Mississauga and Kitchener would be out. Mississauga hosted last time around, while Kitchener has already had 3 of the 14 OHL Memorial Cups. The shortest time in between two cups has been 9 years, so London can't be ruled out. Everybody else is in based on this criteria, but at least we've eliminated 2 more teams.

Hockey Facilities

Of the remaining cities that would definitely make the grade for their arenas would include (5,000 seats and up): Erie, Kingston, Oshawa, Ottawa, London, Saginaw, Sarnia, Sault Ste Marie, Sudbury, Windsor

On the cusp would be (4,000-5,000 seats): Barrie, Sudbury, Peterborough, Guelph

Teams eliminated based on their facilities would likely be: Belleville, Niagara (I doubt they would be willing to award it based on the new arena with a projected completion 3 months before the tournament) Owen Sound and Plymouth.

Availability of Hotels

This is a consideration, but I'm not sure that we can knock any remaining teams out here. It was a problem for Barrie in 1999, but there has been considerable development there over the past decade.

Airport Access

I'm not sure this is a deal breaker either (although Mississauga did mention it in their video). Of the remaining teams those with an advantage would include, in order: Ottawa, Guelph, Barrie. Honourable mentions to Oshawa and Windsor (I know Detroit is right there, but that doesn't have easy flights to most Canadian centres like Toronto and Ottawa do).

Team Competitiveness

Well, we still have two thirds of the teams and we're running out of criteria. Team competitiveness is a big one that's left though. I think this probably rules out Erie, Ottawa, Peterborough and Saginaw. I think it's pretty clear they'll be looking at 14-15, 15-16 before they're ready to contend. Oshawa also seems to me like a team that will need to rebuild next year. You would think you could, and I would like to, write off the Spitfires here. They've stated they're building for next year and Rychel seems to find a way (even if he has to go a little offside to do it).

London has a clear advantage here. The Colts and Storm were preparing for next year all along.

Ownership

I've cut out half a little more than half the league and ownership will play into it. I'm just not that privy to the various owner's affairs. We can say that Barrie, Kingston and Windsor submitted proposals last time and it sounds like Barrie, London and Windsor at least will be applying next time around.

The Potentials

We're down to:

Barrie: On the positive side, will have a strong team with a star, great central location with close access to Toronto and Pearson airport, and they have never had it before. On the negative side, smallish rink (may even have to add a few seats).

Guelph: Team should be on the upswing and like Barrie a great location. They have had it in the past decade, and I haven't heard they are even interested.

Kingston: I'm not sure what to think about Kingston. You think the team should get better, but they haven't done serious damage in recent memory. The rink is right, the location is ok. Didn't get it last time out. Do they try again?

London: Clearly has a the right rink, and the team should be very exciting next year. Location isn't the best, but isn't inconvenient. They just had it 8 years ago though...9 by the time the cup comes around. I hope they don't go back.

Sarnia: I don't know if there is talk in Sarnia of bid. I guess I would ask why not?

Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury: They're similar for me. They've both had it before and location wise they're inconvenient enough I'm not sure you rush to go back. Also, the teams are just mediocre for next year...not sure of their intentions.

Windsor: Probably would have been the frontrunner a 18 months ago. I'm not sure now. They've had it before, but not in eons. The team is underperforming by the Rychel regime's standards, and there was the sanctions issue. Like London the rink is right, the fanbase is there, the location isn't the best but it isn't overly inconvenient.

Of the teams that have never had it before, I think Barrie, Sarnia and Kingston are in the conversation. Of the teams that have, I think you're talking about London with an edge over Windsor.

GangGreen 01-05-2013 02:49 AM

I thought Oshawa would/should host in '08 and Windsor the same in 2011, and neither team got the bid. So I would like to suggest either of those two teams, but Oshawa will lose a ton of talent after this year, while Windsor is struggling just to make the playoffs.
London and Guelph both look to have very good teams next year, but should be ruled out because of hosting in the last 12 years. Niagara will be rebuilding next season, unless they trade their team this year and manage to build a powerhouse in 1 year. Will their arena be ready? Kingston looks to have a promising young team, but is it 1 year too early? Barrie also looks to be losing too much talent to have a host-worthy team. Same with Sarnia. I honestly think the Soo should be considered, since they seem like they should have a good team, and have a newer arena.

My heart would like it to come down to either Kingston or Sault Ste. Marie. My head says it will be between Windsor and Barrie.

shootscores 01-05-2013 03:13 AM

Excellent job kk, I am impressed with your effort. I too was getting annoyed reading the high-jacking of the trade rumour thread. Thank-you
I think a lot is going to depend on what Windsor does at the trade deadline and then how they perform to the end of the year including the playoffs whether they are going to host it. They started the year as the front-runner to host, then they got the black eye prior to the season which depletes their potential improvement for next year through draft. I don't think the quality of players they have to trade this year will transfer into a few missing pieces needed for next year. The Mem Cup location is decided prior to the draft so they can't assume Windsor will be able to draft hidden jems (that will only report to Windsor)
London to me just makes the most sense. They have a very young team, with good players coming back, probably 3 solid overagers, and Patterson in goal, past History was all positive, Ownership is solid, fan support is unreal.

SimonKnightsman 01-05-2013 05:47 AM

Most of those teams are not even bidding. Barrie/ Windsor / London are the only 3 I know of now.

I see no one has mentioned bid money..... Count on 1.7 range being the target and that makes packages very pricey.

Barrie and Windsor can make solid bids but the teams have to hold water also. Barrie look more stout on that front against Windsor but London will be sitting back with real solid group.

All the locations are equal, London has international Airport in case some don't know.

krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SimonKnightsman (Post 57125621)
Most of those teams are not even bidding. Barrie/ Windsor / London are the only 3 I know of now.

I see no one has mentioned bid money..... Count on 1.7 range being the target and that makes packages very pricey.

I did make mention of both these topics in the "Ownership" section. It's just that it's hard to from the outside to determine who has the financial clout to make a bid. Incidentally, I don't understand why the packages have to be so pricey in Ontario. It's like we get taken advanatage of there. The 2013 Memorial Cup in Saskatoon has entire tournament packages for less than the cost of the final in Mississauga.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SimonKnightsman (Post 57125621)
Barrie and Windsor can make solid bids but the teams have to hold water also. Barrie look more stout on that front against Windsor but London will be sitting back with real solid group.

All the locations are equal, London has international Airport in case some don't know.

My first flight ever was from London International Airport. Surely we're not comparing it to Pearson, though? How many places can you fly from there? A dozen or so? One thing you learn to appreciate when you move away from Pearson is just how easy it used to be to get places, and I'm comparing against Edmonton, not London. KW has an international airport as well, but I didn't mention that for Guelph because unless the Hitmen are in, it's irrelevant. Windsor does too for that matter.

Like I say I'm not sure how big of a deal it is...but the Majors did talk about accessibility as a positive factor for their winning bid.

krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GangGreen (Post 57121463)
London and Guelph both look to have very good teams next year, but should be ruled out because of hosting in the last 12 years. Niagara will be rebuilding next season, unless they trade their team this year and manage to build a powerhouse in 1 year. Will their arena be ready? Kingston looks to have a promising young team, but is it 1 year too early? Barrie also looks to be losing too much talent to have a host-worthy team. Same with Sarnia. I honestly think the Soo should be considered, since they seem like they should have a good team, and have a newer arena.

I agree with you on London & Guelph, but the reality is the league did go back to Kitchener only 9 years later, so I'm not sure we can rule them out. Niagara's rink would be ready 3 months prior, I think that's cutting it too close. Barrie's team will be competitive next year, I think their biggest issue is a slightly smallish rink. It's the first rink of a new style for the OHL, so it's quite nice, just a little small. That may be the dealbreaker for them.

krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shootscores (Post 57121707)
Excellent job kk, I am impressed with your effort. I too was getting annoyed reading the high-jacking of the trade rumour thread. Thank-you

Cheers :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by shootscores (Post 57121707)
I think a lot is going to depend on what Windsor does at the trade deadline and then how they perform to the end of the year including the playoffs whether they are going to host it. They started the year as the front-runner to host, then they got the black eye prior to the season which depletes their potential improvement for next year through draft. I don't think the quality of players they have to trade this year will transfer into a few missing pieces needed for next year. The Mem Cup location is decided prior to the draft so they can't assume Windsor will be able to draft hidden jems (that will only report to Windsor)

Agree with you here. It probably should be (and would have been) Windsor, but it's hard to tell how the sanctions will impact them. It certainly makes it a lot more difficult to build a reasonably competitive team. Speaking of which, I know it does enter into the equation, but I think it's more about not being embarrassed than it is about being ranked in the top 10 in the CHL. Saskatoon is not and Brandon wasn't either...

Quote:

Originally Posted by shootscores (Post 57121707)
London to me just makes the most sense. They have a very young team, with good players coming back, probably 3 solid overagers, and Patterson in goal, past History was all positive, Ownership is solid, fan support is unreal.

Many things do point to them. I hope it's not, but only because they've had it so recently. This only comes around every three years, and I think every community that can host should get the opportunity to do so.

youngblood10 01-05-2013 10:15 AM

Good thread KK,

I've also heard with all the Canadian sponsorship, the American based teams are excluded for all intents and purposes. Don't know if I buy that totally, after watching the WJC and the boards of Ufa covered in Canadian advertisements. But it's food for thought.

One thing that the Windsor group likes to hang their hat on, not sure if it's an official criteria item but a show of competence in hosting all the second tier events successfully.
Allstar game when it was around, Subway series, prospects game, under 17 championships etc.. and the community support with volunteers. I know London has hosted all these events also, not sure about other sites off hand.

The cynic in my thinks these decisions are already made before the dog and pony show of applicants starts. If Windsor gets it this time around with what they are icing as a team after being over looked because they didn't have a projected strong enough team in '11. That board needs to have their head examined.

Kingpin794 01-05-2013 12:09 PM

London hosted in 05, to me not enough time has passed. Let someone else have it.

If Windsor got it, it would be an embarassment for the league, so I really doubt they get it.

If Saginaw was a little better, I'd think they might bid. (Have been making small improvements to arena) But as the OP said the team might not be ready. I'd like to see them try and bid anyway. It seems that a good deal of the visting groups that come to Spirit games say that the trip to Saginaw and the Dow was one of their favorites. Also they are maybe a big deal or two in the offseason away from being a contendor.

In all honesty, I'd love to see The Soo get it, but my head says London will.

GangGreen 01-05-2013 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krazy kanuck (Post 57130069)
I agree with you on London & Guelph, but the reality is the league did go back to Kitchener only 9 years later, so I'm not sure we can rule them out. Niagara's rink would be ready 3 months prior, I think that's cutting it too close. Barrie's team will be competitive next year, I think their biggest issue is a slightly smallish rink. It's the first rink of a new style for the OHL, so it's quite nice, just a little small. That may be the dealbreaker for them.

While I didn't follow the OHL back then, I have to imagine the hosting of the Memorial Cup was not a big deal back in the 70's and '80s. Now there are so many factors involved, not to mention the # of nice new facilities being built in the OHL. It's like the World Juniors, a prestigious event to hold and a big money-maker. I don't see a 9 year gap happening again.
Looking at Barrie's roster, I thought likely losing Scheifele, Camara, O'Connor, Niederberger and possibly Hall would be a lot to overcome. If they have the young talent and assets to load up the team, then I hope they get the bid. Bigger doesn't always guarantee hosting, look at Shawinigan over St. John.

Dreakmur 01-05-2013 12:48 PM

London is by far the best option. The only reason not to give it to them is that they had it so recently.

Question is what do you want to accomplish with the event? Do we want to host the best possible tournament, or do we want to spread it around to be fair to the less bids?

Torts 01-05-2013 01:18 PM

my dark horses would be Sarnia and Kingston. both have good facilities but my brain says the league will just hand it to Windsor or Barrie.

krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GangGreen (Post 57137391)
Looking at Barrie's roster, I thought likely losing Scheifele, Camara, O'Connor, Niederberger and possibly Hall would be a lot to overcome. If they have the young talent and assets to load up the team, then I hope they get the bid. Bigger doesn't always guarantee hosting, look at Shawinigan over St. John.

Only for sure gone players are Scheifele, O'Connor, Beyers and Neiderberger. Camara's proflie up until this year wouldn't have had him in the AHL next year. He likely will go now, so let's leave him off. I expect Hall will definitely be back. Fotinos replaces Niederberger and by next year might even be an upgrade. I can only imagine what Ekblad will be like at 18 - he already looks like he's in his mid 20's - and can play 25-30 a night. Probably more in the playoffs if they need it. Perlini, Lemieux, Garcia, Yuill etc. would all need to make progress for next year, but the team should be fine. Maybe not dominant, but certainly respectable.

krazy kanuck 01-05-2013 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dreakmur (Post 57137489)
London is by far the best option.

There are other good options.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dreakmur (Post 57137489)
Question is what do you want to accomplish with the event? Do we want to host the best possible tournament, or do we want to spread it around to be fair to the less bids?

This, as long as the facilities and city can handle it.

Dreakmur 01-05-2013 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krazy kanuck (Post 57140031)
There are other good options.

Maybe, but none close to London.

OSA 01-05-2013 02:30 PM

Anyone think that Erie could be a dark horse? They will have had a $40+ million upgade to their arena. Plus, I'm sure we all could envision the media salivating at the opportunity to cover McDavid at a natioanlly televised tournament. The Otters could be quite decent next year as well.

ottsabrefan 01-05-2013 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krazy kanuck (Post 57139983)
Only for sure gone players are Scheifele, O'Connor, Beyers and Neiderberger. Camara's proflie up until this year wouldn't have had him in the AHL next year. He likely will go now, so let's leave him off. I expect Hall will definitely be back. Fotinos replaces Niederberger and by next year might even be an upgrade. I can only imagine what Ekblad will be like at 18 - he already looks like he's in his mid 20's - and can play 25-30 a night. Probably more in the playoffs if they need it. Perlini, Lemieux, Garcia, Yuill etc. would all need to make progress for next year, but the team should be fine. Maybe not dominant, but certainly respectable.

I would be suprised if Camara and Lepkowsky are not gone as well. To me those are huge loses (4 of the top 6 scorers plus Lepkowsky) and I would be suprised if they can do any better than .500 next season. Plus they may lose even more players if they make a push at the deadline this year.

heusy_79 01-05-2013 02:52 PM

Kingston should be a frontrunner IMO. Newer arena, have a great young core that should be dominant when '14 roles around. Seems like a perfect fit.

ottsabrefan 01-05-2013 03:00 PM

Thanks for starting this thread!! Excellant write-up. I only have a few (or maybe a lot of)additional comments.

I think if Kingston is ever going to get it, it is this year (not saying they will).

The team should be loaded next year starting with likely three 1st round NHL picks in 2014 and one this year. They pretty much return their full lineup. I think next year is their year instead of the year after as they may lose McKeown, Bennett and/or Watson the following year. This is the first time in a long time that they actually have a real good coach as well. I think the on ice product should be fine to say the least.

For me I don't really see any drawbacks, other than the fact that they may not even bid!!
They have the arena, hotels, restaurants and arguably the nicest city in Ontario in May.

For the other top bids:
- Windsor - They were the heavy favourite 6 months ago. Now I wonder how the sanctions affect things and how the on-ice product will be.
- London - The only demerit is the fact that they hosted it 9 years ago. Wouldn't be suprised if they got it. I think if Kingston doesn't put together a solid bid and Windsor doesn't put the product together on the ice, it is theirs.
- Barrie - As per my previous comment, I don't think they have the on-ice product. It also is quite close to Mississauga and is a smaller arena than the other bidders.
- Sudbury/Soo - I think these two are your darkhorses. I think Sudbury will be solid next year. You never know!
- Guelph - Other than hosting it somewhat recently, I think they have an outside shot at it if they do decide to bid.
- Sarnia - The arena is the same size as Barrie's and the team looks like it will be in re-build mode losing Murphy, Latta, Serault and of course Galchenyuk.

Daneurism 01-05-2013 03:06 PM

Guelph and Kingston make the most sense, in terms of roster

(excluding London because they've hosted it recently)

GangGreen 01-05-2013 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daneurism (Post 57142609)
Guelph and Kingston make the most sense, in terms of roster

(excluding London because they've hosted it recently)

So has Guelph

OHLFan8771 01-05-2013 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OSA (Post 57140853)
Anyone think that Erie could be a dark horse? They will have had a $40+ million upgade to their arena. Plus, I'm sure we all could envision the media salivating at the opportunity to cover McDavid at a natioanlly televised tournament. The Otters could be quite decent next year as well.

I think that Erie is a dark horse but it is rather unlikely. They have the brand new 6,000+ arena for next year and like you said McDavid would be a huge selling point. I think they will be a good team next year but the two problems I see are that it is a United States team, and the are simply not competitive enough yet. I can not see a team that has played very well as of recent but is still in last place within the conference get to host the cup. If Erie can manage to keep winning then maybe they have a shot but right now I think the negatives out weigh the positives.

doogie24 01-05-2013 10:23 PM

I could accept 2017 being enough time in between hosts for London, but I think 2014 (8/9 years inbetween) is too soon. The way that franchise is run and the way the city supports them, they could host it every three years and it would be a success every single time.

This certainly shouldn't take away from the question of if they deserve it or not, (try and follow me on this) but the fact that they were so dominant just adds to the tournament being still so fresh in my mind. (of course it depends on how you view that - it also feels like forever ago). We still see highlights of that team, "05 Memorial Cup" jerseys are everywhere, etc. If they were just a solid team that year who didn't win an OHL title and went out quietly in the tournament, it may not seem like it was as big of a deal, and in turn, may give the feeling that they should be able to host again.

Re: Windsor

The WFCU is a perfect facility for the event. 6500 with a serviceable concourse and plenty of luxury suites. Not a ton of stuff to do directly around the arena but again nobody really compares to London in this department either.

This was pointed out by someone else on here, but will Branch and co really factor the punishments in this decision? Opinions will vary on this, but that would be unfair to them. They didn't say "loss of picks, money, AND Memorial Cup bid". Branch isn't well received anywhere he goes, the boos would just be a bit louder this time around. :laugh:

Rychel and co will have to be smart, but it can be turned around quickly. He has this week, early next year, and then next years deadline to go all in. Getting some Americans to de-commit will be tough, but I never thought I would see Campbell in a Spitfires uniform either.

If Windsor gets snubbed twice in a row it would be horribly disappointing. I don't want to go as far as saying this tournament is owed to them, but its damn close to being that way.

SimonKnightsman 01-06-2013 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krazy kanuck (Post 57129897)
I did make mention of both these topics in the "Ownership" section. It's just that it's hard to from the outside to determine who has the financial clout to make a bid. Incidentally, I don't understand why the packages have to be so pricey in Ontario. It's like we get taken advanatage of there. The 2013 Memorial Cup in Saskatoon has entire tournament packages for less than the cost of the final in Mississauga.



My first flight ever was from London International Airport. Surely we're not comparing it to Pearson, though? How many places can you fly from there? A dozen or so? One thing you learn to appreciate when you move away from Pearson is just how easy it used to be to get places, and I'm comparing against Edmonton, not London. KW has an international airport as well, but I didn't mention that for Guelph because unless the Hitmen are in, it's irrelevant. Windsor does too for that matter.

Like I say I'm not sure how big of a deal it is...but the Majors did talk about accessibility as a positive factor for their winning bid.

They were outrages in price a Shawi....I was there. All these other issues barely hold water KK when you see what Shawi did. You had to stay 68 Kms away, no airport and many other probs.

But the big one is money to CHL...London will guarantee 1.7 to 2. Million in their bid forcing the others to at least match that.

Acad 01-06-2013 09:09 AM

Gotta say Kingston,

Good young team and would like to see that barn filled more.


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