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-   -   Value of: Ron Hainsey (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1318715)

Aceonfire* 01-08-2013 03:23 PM

Ron Hainsey
 
I know he has a NTC. But Edmonton is on the hunt for a veteran D for this season.

He is a great leader in the locker room and would bring some stability to the back end.

Considering it would be for only 50 games, would Winni consider it? And what would it take?

And please be respectful, there are way worse EDM threads out there.

Gump Hasek 01-08-2013 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceonfire (Post 57296563)
I know he has a NTC. But Edmonton is on the hunt for a veteran D for this season.

He is a great leader in the locker room and would bring some stability to the back end.

Considering it would be for only 50 games, would Winni consider it? And what would it take?

And please be respectful, there are way worse EDM threads out there.

Probably no deal to be made until Bogosian comes back from injury and one of either Redmond or Postma proves a responsible replacement for Hainsey.

No thanks for now, though perhaps at the deadline.

aqsw 01-08-2013 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceonfire (Post 57296563)
I know he has a NTC. But Edmonton is on the hunt for a veteran D for this season.

He is a great leader in the locker room and would bring some stability to the back end.

Considering it would be for only 50 games, would Winni consider it? And what would it take?

And please be respectful, there are way worse EDM threads out there.

You can have him for free. Take the bum and his ugly contract.

King Woodballs 01-08-2013 06:56 PM

You can have his 4.5 million cap hit for free.

almostawake 01-08-2013 06:59 PM

Highly unlikely the Jets consider trading him until they are out of the playoff race. Even then, I think there's a decent chance they'll try to resign him.

He's not great but he gives the Jets 20+ minutes a night in a top 4 role. It doesn't look like the Jets have anyone in the system that could step into that role next season and seems unlikely they'd be able to fill it through the UFA market.

Not a guy they'd be resigning in a perfect world, but in their current situation, a guy that it's probably in their best interests to resign.

aqsw 01-08-2013 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by almostawake (Post 57307421)
Highly unlikely the Jets consider trading him until they are out of the playoff race. Even then, I think there's a decent chance they'll try to resign him.

He's not great but he gives the Jets 20+ minutes a night in a top 4 role. It doesn't look like the Jets have anyone in the system that could step into that role next season and seems unlikely they'd be able to fill it through the UFA market.

Not a guy they'd be resigning in a perfect world, but in their current situation, a guy that it's probably in their best interests to resign.

I disagree, but these are forums, right:yo:

JetsHomer 01-08-2013 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqsw (Post 57308299)
I disagree, but these are forums, right:yo:

Go read the Hainsey thread on the Jets board. Its been pretty well proven that Hainsey is a league average #4 making around average for a player of his skills

almostawake 01-08-2013 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqsw (Post 57308299)
I disagree, but these are forums, right:yo:

If you have a realistic suggestion for who the Jets could get to average 20+ (21+ really) minutes a night this season and next, I'm all ears.

Looking at guys within the system, it's extremely unlikely that guys like Postma and Redmond will ever be able to cover that many minutes, and in any case, certainly not by next year. Trouba will almost certainly be a top 4 guy one day, but he may not even sign a pro contract next summer and even if he does, it is very rare that a college defenceman immediately step into a top 4 role.

As far as the UFA market goes, the crop of defencemen is already pretty weak and is probably going to get much weaker as teams resign their players.

So unless you think the cap reduction is going to shake free a fair number of high quality defencemen next summer, one of our fringe prospects is going to miraculously emerge this season, it seems pretty unlikely that we'll be able to fill Hainsey's skates without paying a pretty heavy price.

allan5oh 01-08-2013 10:00 PM

We'll most likely trade him at the deadline to the highest bidder. Does Edmonton have other needs? We have a glut of centers as well(6+Scheifele). Also have 5 shooting RHD in total.

Would consider upgrading to a 1st round pick.

How about at the deadline:

Ron Hainsey + 2013 59th pick (for not signing Daulton Leveille) + Chicagos 2013 2nd

for

Edmontons 2013 1st

almostawake 01-08-2013 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57315653)
We'll most likely trade him at the deadline to the highest bidder. Does Edmonton have other needs? We have a glut of centers as well(6+Scheifele). Also have 5 shooting RHD in total.

Would consider upgrading to a 1st round pick.

How about at the deadline:

Ron Hainsey + 2013 59th pick (for not signing Daulton Leveille) + Chicagos 2013 2nd

for

Edmontons 2013 1st

If Edmonton wants Hainsey at the deadline it's because they're almost certainly going to make the playoffs. That means that their pick is in the second half of the first round. Assuming that the market for defencemen at this year's deadline is similar to last year's, Hainsey's value is at least a 2nd (and I feel I'm being fairly conservative).

So your proposal is 3 late 2nds for a late 1st. Personally I feel that's a bad deal for any team, let alone a team like the Jets that desperately need to restock their prospect pool.

allan5oh 01-08-2013 10:36 PM

We have lots of talent in the pool, just not high end talent. Big drop off after Scheifele and Trouba.

I suppose you're right about a few things however. We're essentially gambling that Edmonton tanks after the trade deadline. Maybe Chicagos 2nd should be removed?

Also remember the bottom 14 now have a chance at 1st overall. Having two picks in the bottom 14 is extremely valuable.

almostawake 01-08-2013 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57317161)
We have lots of talent in the pool, just not high end talent. Big drop off after Scheifele and Trouba.

Err, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think it's pretty clear we have one of the worst prospect pools in the league. I don't 100% agree with HF, but they rate our prospect pool as 29th in the league, ahead of only the Flyers.

Besides Scheifele and Trouba we may have one, at most, two players that will actually end up making a decent NHL career for themselves, and that will only be after a number of years.

Coming out of the 2014 draft the players we pick in the second round should be our 4th-7th ranked prospects (assuming we pick up another 2nd at the deadline).

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57317161)
I suppose you're right about a few things however. We're essentially gambling that Edmonton tanks after the trade deadline. Maybe Chicagos 2nd should be removed?

IMO there is absolutely not chance Edmonton will risk that. I think the assumption has to be if you're getting that pick, you're getting it because it will be in the 17-21 range.

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57317161)
Also remember the bottom 14 now have a chance at 1st overall. Having two picks in the bottom 14 is extremely valuable.

#14 has a 0.5% chance, #13 = 0.8%, #12 = 1.1%, #11 = 1.5%, etc.

If Chevy wants to play odds like that I'd rather he take next summer's FA budget up to South Beach Casino and try to double it.

allan5oh 01-08-2013 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by almostawake (Post 57318313)
Err, I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think it's pretty clear we have one of the worst prospect pools in the league. I don't 100% agree with HF, but they rate our prospect pool as 29th in the league, ahead of only the Flyers.

I didn't say we had a good one, but rather that there's a huge dropoff after Trouba and Scheifele. We could use more top end talent. We have lots of plugs in our prospect pool, with some showing NHL potential. That's why we should upgrade picks whenever possible.

Quote:

Besides Scheifele and Trouba we may have one, at most, two players that will actually end up making a decent NHL career for themselves, and that will only be after a number of years.
Not an immediate concern for the short term future, we have a young core locked into decent contracts.

Quote:

Coming out of the 2014 draft the players we pick in the second round should be our 4th-7th ranked prospects (assuming we pick up another 2nd at the deadline).
You wouldn't mind converting two of the four 2nd rounders into a 1st rounder? I sure wouldn't. We don't need four 2nd rounders to restock our pool. Our team is very young, and the older guys are on short contracts. That means we have time to pick up high quality players, rather than trying to horde later picks (quality over quanitity). We have 3 extra picks for 2013.

Quote:

#14 has a 0.5% chance, #13 = 0.8%, #12 = 1.1%, #11 = 1.5%, etc.

If Chevy wants to play odds like that I'd rather he take next summer's FA budget up to South Beach Casino and try to double it.
We're not doing this because we need to get #1 with that pick, #14 is fine. But if we get #1, wouldn't that be awesome?

Sweech 01-08-2013 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqsw (Post 57306821)
You can have him for free. Take the bum and his ugly contract.

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Woodballs (Post 57307303)
You can have his 4.5 million cap hit for free.

This is the attitude I don't understand. What does Winnipeg need cap room this season for? He's only making $3mil in actual dollars, which is almost exactly what a #4 defenseman makes on any other team. His contract ends this season, where he'll either be resigned or go somewhere else and his next contract will assuredly have a more reasonable caphit.

As for a deal being stricken I don't really know what Edmonton could offer us. It would create a very sizeable hole for us on defense as Bogosian won't be healthy when the season starts.

As others have stated he's likely a guy that gets moved at the deadline if we're not in contention.

Aceonfire* 01-09-2013 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweech (Post 57319607)
This is the attitude I don't understand. What does Winnipeg need cap room this season for? He's only making $3mil in actual dollars, which is almost exactly what a #4 defenseman makes on any other team. His contract ends this season, where he'll either be resigned or go somewhere else and his next contract will assuredly have a more reasonable caphit.

As for a deal being stricken I don't really know what Edmonton could offer us. It would create a very sizeable hole for us on defense as Bogosian won't be healthy when the season starts.

As others have stated he's likely a guy that gets moved at the deadline if we're not in contention.

Corey Potter? A cheap LHD that can help on the PP? Defensively he is terrible but he is better than Cam Barker was lol.

Eskimo44 01-09-2013 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceonfire (Post 57320663)
Corey Potter? A cheap LHD that can help on the PP? Defensively he is terrible but he is better than Cam Barker was lol.

He's a righty.

scelaton 01-09-2013 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceonfire (Post 57296563)
I know he has a NTC. But Edmonton is on the hunt for a veteran D for this season.

He is a great leader in the locker room and would bring some stability to the back end.

Considering it would be for only 50 games, would Winni consider it? And what would it take?

And please be respectful, there are way worse EDM threads out there.

It may be evident very early in this shortened season that Winnipeg is out of it and Edmonton is finally unleashing its potential. If and when that happens, I would propose trading Hainsey for Oscar Klefbom. My understanding is that Klefbom is out until next year after shoulder surgery. He has great potential but is still a prospect and the shoulder injury places an extra risk premium on him (just ask Eric Fehr).
Current value for future potential.

Royal Canuck 01-09-2013 01:53 AM

Ron Hainsey is better in a suit than he is on the ice :laugh:

He's quite the cap hit for a 5th/6th guy (Keith Ballard esque) but if a team really needs a guy to round out their defense and they have the cap hit, I don't see why not.

Inflict 01-09-2013 03:06 AM

Hainsey is a lot better than people give him credit for. He is excellent defensively and was a 'plus' player (2nd on the team behind Kane) on a team that was towards the bottom of the leage in goals against. He still has some two-way ability left in him, but is better used as an injury replacement on the 2nd PP unit.

I think the value of Hainsey is a late 1st round or a high 2nd round pick. I like to reference the Johhny Oduya trade where the Jets got a 2nd and 3rd round pick. I think we can get the same value with Hainsey if we really wanted to trade him.

garret9 01-09-2013 03:25 AM

For outsiders who only know Hainsey from his NHLPA stint I wrote a huge breakdown on him:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1316697

But if you don't want to read it here's the summary:

Offensively I think he still has the 34-39 point ability if he get's decent PP time. He still scores at similar rates at even strength as he did back when he used to score a lot more points. Problem is he doesn't get any PP time on a team with Byfuglien, Enstrom and Bogosain who are all top 40 offensively in the NHL per time on ice.

Defensively he's solid but not spectacular. He doesn't hit and isn't gritty but he still usually gets the job done. Bogosian was a minus player paired to Oduya or Stuart but a plus player with Hainsey.

His pay is 3mil and his cap is 4.5. He has some vet and leadership qualities.

Zoidberg Jesus 01-09-2013 03:29 AM

So he faced the highest quality of competition on the Jets, with the fewest offensive zone starts, and still had the lowest GA/60 at even strength. The offense might not be there anymore, but it sure seems like he's still pretty capable in his own end. For 3M in actual salary, I think he's still got decent value.

garret9 01-09-2013 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoidberg Jesus (Post 57325859)
So he faced the highest quality of competition on the Jets, with the fewest offensive zone starts, and still had the lowest GA/60 at even strength. The offense might not be there anymore, but it sure seems like he's still pretty capable in his own end. For 3M in actual salary, I think he's still got decent value.

I'm quoting this onto the main Jet board

almostawake 01-09-2013 04:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57319545)
I didn't say we had a good one, but rather that there's a huge dropoff after Trouba and Scheifele. We could use more top end talent. We have lots of plugs in our prospect pool, with some showing NHL potential. That's why we should upgrade picks whenever possible.

What I was disagreeing with was your statement that the Jets have lots of talent in the system. To me, few of the guys down in St. Johns have much NHL potential. Our 4-8 prospects would be fringe prospects on most other teams in the league.

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57319545)
Not an immediate concern for the short term future, we have a young core locked into decent contracts.

There is some nice top end talent in the core, but Antropov, Wellwood, Ponikarovsky and Miettinen are pretty clearly stop gap guys that are not part of the long term plan. They can keep filling those spots with sort term veteran FAs, but in the long run the Jets shouldn't be handing a roster spot to a guy like Ponikarovsky. They should have at least 2 or 3 guys in St. Johns pounding down the door for that roster spot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57319545)
You wouldn't mind converting two of the four 2nd rounders into a 1st rounder? I sure wouldn't. We don't need four 2nd rounders to restock our pool. Our team is very young, and the older guys are on short contracts. That means we have time to pick up high quality players, rather than trying to horde later picks (quality over quanitity). We have 3 extra picks for 2013.

I wouldn't be against turning two 2nd rounders into a late 1st, but I don't think you'd get many (any?) NHL team to bite on that. Maybe the Jets could get a team to bite on Hainsey and the Jets 2nd for a mid 1st, but no team will trade a mid to late 1st for two late 2nds. Three seconds they may, but that's where I draw the line.

IMO, 2nd round picks can provide quality NHLers. But more importantly, they can provide quality raw material for the TNSE development system that served the Canucks very well for a number of years. One of the (few) advantages that the Jets have is a proven development system. But they have to start feeding it a steady stream of prospects with at least an outside shot at the NHL.

Quote:

Originally Posted by allan5oh (Post 57319545)
We're not doing this because we need to get #1 with that pick, #14 is fine. But if we get #1, wouldn't that be awesome?

My point is just that the odds are so poor it would be illogical to assign much additional value to the 14th pick over the 15th pick.

To put it into perspective, odds of moving to #1 from #14 is significantly worse than the odds of a 7th round pick producing an all-star.

almostawake 01-09-2013 05:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Royal Canuck (Post 57324245)
Ron Hainsey is better in a suit than he is on the ice :laugh:

He's quite the cap hit for a 5th/6th guy (Keith Ballard esque) but if a team really needs a guy to round out their defense and they have the cap hit, I don't see why not.

Not a 5th/6th, a legit 4th. Oduya, a clearly inferior player, went to the Hawks and played in their top 4, averaging 23+ minutes.

internetdotcom 01-09-2013 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by almostawake (Post 57318313)
#14 has a 0.5% chance, #13 = 0.8%, #12 = 1.1%, #11 = 1.5%, etc.

Just wondering, do you have a link to the odds ? I'm curious.


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